" 这次，充当中间商的云大厂没能赚到差价。 " 作者丨徐晓飞 编辑丨周蕾 "一天十几个客户电话进来，有的一打一个多小时，我中午饭都没顾上吃。"云大厂政企销售小顾哑着嗓子 告诉雷峰网，开源大模型DeepSeek出现后，市场反馈热烈，云大厂这边也接到不少客户来电，咨询相关 的API接入和线下部署方案。 不过小顾坦言，DeepSeek眼下这么火爆，主要是因为它帮国人把大模型的信心又找回来了，但最终能转 化成多少商业收益，能为云大厂带来多少拉动，还要打个问号。 究其原因在于，DeepSeek虽然降低了大模型的成本门槛，但它的能力跟ChatGPT差别不大，也面临和 ChatGPT一样的困境：应用场景实在有限。 DeepSeek爆火后，作为产业链上的核心一环，云大厂们迅速跟进，手里的"战略牌"一张连着一张打了出 来：组织变阵，业务调整，大笔投入，战略重构……整个一个目不暇接。 然而，这一热潮是真正的价值机遇，还是昙花一现的浮躁之风，跟还是不跟？成为摆在云大厂面前的一道 难题。 雷峰网通过调研了解到，眼下一众国内云大厂可分成两派：一派是推出DeepSeek一体机硬件部署方案 的，有阿里、火山、华为、百度等；一派是没推出的， ...

Core Viewpoint - The digital economy in China has made significant progress since the launch of the "Digital China" initiative in 2015, with the year 2025 marking the 10th anniversary of this initiative, leading to a new phase of development [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Digital Economy Theme Index (931582) rose by 1.42% as of April 10, 2025, with constituent stocks such as Jingsheng Electronics (600699) up by 5.87% and Mingzhi Electric (603728) up by 5.82% [1] - The Digital Economy ETF (560800) increased by 1.76%, with a latest price of 0.75 yuan and a turnover of 10.6593 million yuan during the trading session [1] - The Digital Economy ETF saw a significant increase in shares, growing by 16 million shares over the past week, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The Digital Economy ETF attracted a total of 22.5661 million yuan in inflows over the last four trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Leveraged funds are increasingly positioning themselves in the digital economy sector, with the latest margin buying amounting to 2.2885 million yuan and a margin balance of 12.7579 million yuan [1] Group 3: Policy and Future Directions - The next phase of development will focus on "data elements x" and "artificial intelligence +", emphasizing the need to address existing challenges through enhanced infrastructure and data supply [4] - The domestic economic policies are expected to positively influence growth expectations, with the "信创" (Xinchuang) sector likely to benefit from ongoing policy support and improvements in domestic software and hardware performance [4] Group 4: Index Composition - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Digital Economy Theme Index accounted for 50.55% of the index, with stocks like Dongfang Wealth (300059) and SMIC (688981) being the most significant contributors [5][7]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant increase on April 10, with the ChiNext Index rising over 4% and the Shenzhen Component Index up more than 3%, while the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 500 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 30 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The Software ETF (159852) rose over 3% with a trading volume surpassing 150 million yuan within the first half hour of trading, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Foreign investment institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, expressed three core assessments of Chinese assets: significant valuation advantages, ample policy tools, and strengthened logic of technological innovation, highlighting the resilience of the Chinese market [2] Group 2 - The Software ETF (159852) closely tracks the CSI Software Service Index, which includes 30 listed companies involved in software development and services, reflecting the overall performance of the software service industry [2] - The domestic innovation and trusted computing industry chain is expected to see significant development opportunities, with projections for over 20,000 applications and services based on the HarmonyOS to be launched by 2024, and over 1 billion HarmonyOS devices expected [3] - The rise of domestic software and hardware is emphasized as a crucial path for development amid ongoing global trade tensions, with a focus on self-reliance in key technological products [3]

Group 1 - The technology sector experienced a collective surge on April 9, with financial technology stocks showing significant gains, including Zhongyi Technology hitting a 20% limit up, and Anshuo Information rising over 10% [1] - The Huaxia Financial Technology ETF (516100) increased by 4.89%, while the brokerage ETF (515010) rose by 2.12%, with major holdings like Wu Securities gaining over 6% [1] - PwC China and Weijing Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement to provide end-to-end digital transformation and risk management solutions for financial institutions, enhancing the core technology autonomy and high-quality development of China's financial industry [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia Financial Technology ETF (516100) closely tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, focusing on high-quality companies that integrate finance and technology, covering sectors such as internet brokerage, financial IT, mobile payments, and AI [2] - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include industry leaders like Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Hengsheng Electronics, with a combined weight of 53.94%, indicating significant representation in the financial technology sector [2] - The brokerage ETF (515010) is currently the lowest fee investment option in its category, making it an attractive choice for investors looking to gain exposure to the brokerage sector [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the A-share computer sector has a low dependence on sales to the US, indicating limited impact from the recent tariff measures. The overall foreign revenue for the computer industry in 2023 is approximately 10%, with an even smaller percentage for the US market [9] - The intensifying competition between China and the US is accelerating the construction of a domestic independent software and hardware ecosystem. The report notes that the domestic market for key foundational software and hardware remains underdeveloped, presenting significant market opportunities [9] - A new round of domestic procurement in the information technology sector is beginning, driven by both order catalysts and tariff conflicts, suggesting that the industry is poised for acceleration. The report recommends focusing on domestic CPU chips, AI chips, operating systems, databases, and leading security firms [2][9] Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 2, the US government announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods, followed by a series of countermeasures from China on April 4, including a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10, 2025 [4] Industry Analysis - The report emphasizes that the domestic independent software and hardware ecosystem is being forced to accelerate due to increased US tariffs and technology restrictions. The report also notes that the domestic market for foundational software and hardware has a low localization rate, indicating vast potential for growth [9] - The report anticipates that the new round of procurement will lead to increased orders and industry growth, with a focus on domestic products supported by government subsidies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 16.758 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 405 million yuan, down 4.76% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved Q4 revenue of 4.872 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 142 million yuan, up 16.22% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q4 was 38.13%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.29 percentage points [1] Group 2: Product and Market Development - The company made significant breakthroughs in network infrastructure products, particularly in the data center sector, enhancing its innovation capabilities [2] - The AI-FlexiForce intelligent computing center network solution was delivered on a large scale and won the "Annual Influential Solution Award" [2] - The company launched innovative products such as the TH5 switch, 51.2T CPO switch, and leading global 400G/800G LPO optical modules [2] Group 3: AI Applications Expansion - In the field of trusted computing, the company developed the "Shenghua" series machines based on Huawei's Kirin 9000C chip, aiding various sectors in achieving intelligent upgrades [2] - The company received telecom equipment access licenses for multiple AI voice core products, enhancing competitiveness in the operator market and industry private networks [3] - The company made strides in smart medical solutions, which were implemented in national regional medical centers across provinces like Shandong, Shanghai, and Beijing [3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Profit Forecast - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 39% and 42% to 510 million yuan and 622 million yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast of 728 million yuan for 2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating growth opportunities from AI intelligent computing center networks and increased demand for white-label switches in data centers driven by operator investments [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The recent reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US have significantly exceeded expectations, with the overall tariff rate on China reaching 65.7%, potentially reducing China's exports by 7-9 percentage points in 2025 and impacting GDP by over 1.0 percentage point [4] - The economic pressure from these tariffs is expected to accelerate the introduction of new policies, particularly those aimed at increasing leverage, including potential interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures [4] - The report suggests that fiscal measures may include additional bond issuance, estimating that a 1 percentage point decline in exports would require a fiscal boost of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The report highlights that certain cyclical industries are entering a strong trend phase with low crowding, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel, while the TMT sector shows high crowding and should be approached with caution [14] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank and Postal Savings Bank recommended for their cyclical positioning [22] - The tungsten industry is noted for its strategic advantages, with companies that can ensure resource supply and high-end processing likely to benefit from the ongoing industry cycle [24] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Xiaomi Group is projected to see revenue growth from 452.3 billion yuan in 2025 to 713.6 billion yuan by 2027, with a focus on improving gross margins and expanding its IoT business [38] - The report anticipates that Lekin Technology will achieve revenues of 26.4 billion yuan in 2025, driven by its AIoT platform and expanding product matrix, with a "buy" rating assigned [26] - The company Kai Lai Ying is expected to recover with a projected net profit of 10.9 billion yuan in 2025, supported by a favorable order environment and ongoing investment in R&D [35] Group 4: Retail Sector Developments - The company Kid King is focusing on a multi-channel strategy and aims to accelerate its AI incubation efforts, with projected revenues of 107 billion yuan by 2025 [33] - Aiying Room is optimizing its traditional store operations and expanding its new business formats, with expected revenues of 36.9 billion yuan in 2025 [34]

2、深度跟 踪 ： AI 产业跟踪：大模型进入 " 深度思考 " 阶段 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/陈鑫/杨本鸿/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点： 在风险偏好下降中逢低加仓，关注信创边际变化 周观点 在风险偏好下降中逢低加仓，关注信创边际变化 在风险偏好下降中逢低加仓。 3 月 9 日，我们提出从强贝塔走向强阿尔法。近期，伴随着财报密集发布及国际环境变化，风险偏好持续下降，计算机板块已连续 4 周调 整。在当前的时间点，考虑到业绩预期发酵所处阶段及政策预期，建议把握未来半个月的加仓窗口，持续聚焦阿尔法，逢低布局质优龙头。 关注信创产业链的边际变化。 以信创为核心的国产化正迎来重要的投资窗口： 1 ）美国商务部实体清单持续扩容，倒逼国产化提速； 2 ）全球关税大变局正带来 ICT 供应链不稳定性提升，国产化的重要性进一步提升； 3 ）二季度将逐渐迎来招投标旺季，信创景气拐点验证正进入关键时间窗口。 AI Agent 发展正步入新阶段。 智谱于 3 月 31 日发布了 AutoGLM 沉思 Agent ，是首个集深度思考与操作系统能力于一体的 AI Age ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The ongoing trade war has led to increased tariffs, with the U.S. imposing a total of 20% tariffs on Chinese goods as of February and March 2025, followed by an additional 34% tariff announced in April 2025 [1][2] - In response, China has implemented a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and has taken measures against 16 U.S. entities, indicating an escalation in the trade conflict [2] - The heightened tensions between the U.S. and China have underscored the importance of self-reliance in technology and the need for China to enhance its technological capabilities [3] - The software sector is expected to focus on domestic demand, with significant potential for market growth and technological substitution [3] - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for government and party-related technology initiatives, with a focus on PC-based technology updates and strong performance from key companies in Q1 and throughout the year [3] - Domestic AI models, such as those from Alibaba and DeepSeek, are now among the global leaders, driving the development of AI applications tailored to local needs [4] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including those with high market share in foundational software, AI applications, and hardware sectors [5] Summary by Sections - **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. has increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a total of 20% and then 34% tariffs, prompting China to retaliate with similar measures [1][2] - **Technological Self-Reliance**: The report emphasizes the need for China to focus on self-reliance in technology amidst rising tensions, particularly in the software sector [3] - **AI Development**: Chinese AI models are gaining global recognition, with a focus on applications that meet domestic enterprise needs [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies recommended for investment include Dameng Data, China Software, and others in the AI and hardware sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of self-reliance in technology due to escalating global trade tensions, highlighting the urgency for core technology products to be self-sufficient [5][12] - National fiscal support is expected to accelerate the implementation of key projects and policies, particularly in the realm of domestic innovation and technology [6][13] - Domestic software and hardware are transitioning from being merely "usable" to "user-friendly," with an anticipated acceleration in replacement cycles [7][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of March 31 to April 3, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.37%, while the computer index decreased by 1.87% [4][16] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that with changes in the global trade environment, domestic software and hardware are on the rise, and the pace of replacement is expected to accelerate. Recommended companies include: - For domestic computing power: Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, and Shenzhou Digital - For the innovation and creation sector: Kingsoft Office, Dameng Database, Taiji Co., and others [8][15] Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant developments in the industry, including the upcoming release of Alibaba's new model Qwen3 and OpenAI's completion of a $40 billion financing round, which values the company at $300 billion [22][28]