1. 韩国央行行长李昌镛：仍继续处于宽松周期中。在决定是否进一步降息时，将密切关注金融稳定风 险。 1. 鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否过早 不排除任何一次会议。 2. 特朗普：不考虑延长关税谈判最后期限 可能提高日本关税。 3. "美联储传声筒"：鲍威尔保持灵活性 降息决策因素发生转变。 4. 美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高。 5. 美国财政部长贝森特：相信美联储会在秋季之前降息，但最迟在9月份肯定会降息。 6. 特朗普税收法案在参议院通过。美国众议院定于当地时间周三就法案进行辩论并投票。 1. 日本央行行长植田和男：当前利率低于中性水平。任何加息措施都将取决于通胀动态的三个要素。 2. 欧洲央行行长拉加德：并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到。必须保持对通胀的高度警惕。 3. 英国央行行长贝利：利率的走向仍然呈现下行趋势。终端利率的水平存在巨大的不确定性。 4. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧元兑美元汇率在1.17是完全可以接受的，即便是升至1.20，也在可容忍范 围内。但如果进一步超过1.20，情况可能会变得较为复杂。 5. 欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：欧元进一步大幅上涨可能会增加再次降息的理由。 6 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill with a vote of 51 to 50, highlighting significant partisan divisions [3][4] - Three Republican senators voted against the bill, which was ultimately passed by Vice President Vance's tie-breaking vote [3][4] - The House Speaker, Mike Johnson, aims to pass the bill before the July 4 deadline set by Trump [5] Group 2 - Elon Musk criticized the "big and beautiful" bill, threatening to establish a new political party if it passes, claiming it represents a single-party system [6][9] - Musk's criticism is partly due to the bill's proposal to eliminate tax credits for electric vehicles, which could significantly impact Tesla's sales and revenue [12][17] - The bill is expected to increase federal debt significantly, with estimates suggesting an average annual increase of $55 billion in debt interest payments over the next decade [18] Group 3 - The bill disproportionately benefits the wealthiest 1% while cutting social welfare programs for low-income families, leading to a projected income decrease of nearly 4% for the poorest households [21] - Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 1% is seen as an attempt to alleviate the government's debt burden and shift responsibility for economic issues onto the Fed [20][31]

Group 1 - Tesla's stock dropped by 5.4%, reaching a three-week low, following President Trump's threat to consider terminating federal subsidies for Musk's companies, raising concerns about policy risks [2][3] - The technology sector was a major contributor to the market decline, with significant sell-offs in previously high-performing momentum stocks [2][3] - Nvidia and Netflix saw declines of over 2% and 3% respectively, while Apple managed a 1% increase [3] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 400.17 points, or 0.91%, closing at 44,494.94, driven by gains in energy, materials, and industrial sectors [2] - The S&P 500 index fell slightly by 6.94 points, or 0.11%, to close at 6,198.01, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 166.85 points, or 0.82%, to 20,202.89 [2] - The Dow Jones Transportation Index surged by 2.9%, marking its largest single-day gain since mid-May, reflecting cautious optimism about the economic outlook [2]

据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间6月30日，美国总统特朗普再次"炮轰"美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威 尔，称美联储应尽早将利率降至1%。 ...

欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：任何进一步的利率调整都不会太大。 ...

欧元进一步大幅升值可能为再次降息提供依据。 任何进一步的利率调整幅度都不会很大。 欧洲央行官员Kazaks：进一步的利率调整关乎政策信号传递与精准微调。 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们应该将利率降至1%或2%水平。 ...

Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results, with Shanghai gold futures at 766.40 CNY per gram, down 0.87%, and Shanghai silver futures at 8792.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.55% [1] - International precious metals saw an overall increase, with COMEX gold priced at 3298.90 USD per ounce, down 1.28%, and COMEX silver at 36.59 USD per ounce, down 0.81% [1] Price Data - On June 27, 2025, the opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals were as follows: - Shanghai gold futures opened at 772.00 CNY, reached a high of 774.70 CNY, and a low of 764.96 CNY per gram [2] - Shanghai silver futures opened at 8788.00 CNY, peaked at 8858.00 CNY, and dropped to a low of 8762.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX gold opened at 3341.30 USD, with a high of 3341.40 USD and a low of 3298.00 USD per ounce [2] - COMEX silver opened at 36.89 USD, reached a high of 36.98 USD, and a low of 36.57 USD per ounce [2] Economic Context - Inflation pressures are gradually easing, but the Federal Reserve's policies remain restrictive. Chairman Powell faces the challenge of maintaining economic stability while avoiding past inflationary mistakes [3] - Market data indicates a decline in the dollar following President Trump's criticism of Powell, reflecting investor concerns over presidential interference in monetary policy [3] Market Sentiment - As of June 26, COMEX gold prices fell by 0.04% to 3341.60 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures rose by 0.12% to 774.06 CNY per gram [4] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 79.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 20.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged drops to 6%, while cumulative cuts of 25 and 50 basis points have probabilities of 74.9% and 19.1%, respectively [4]

Group 1: Currency Market Insights - The European Central Bank's council member Knot stated that the possibility of another interest rate cut by the ECB cannot be ruled out [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that the strengthening of the British pound is related to uncertainties in the U.S., with interest rates still on a gradual downward path [2] - The onshore and offshore RMB against the USD briefly broke the 7.16 mark, reaching a new high in over seven months [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trade - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic began; first-quarter GDP was revised down [3] - Market volatility has led to a surge in foreign exchange trading volume for Citigroup's hedge funds [3] - The New Taiwan Dollar against the USD broke the 29 mark, reaching a high not seen in over three years [3] Group 3: Central Bank Perspectives - Federal Reserve officials expressed mixed views on potential interest rate cuts, with Daly suggesting that a fall in rates this autumn looks promising, while Collins indicated that a July cut may be premature [3] - The Hungarian central bank projected an adjusted core inflation rate of 4.7% for 2025 and 4.0% for 2026 [3] - The South Korean Ministry of Finance announced that it will further issue foreign exchange stabilization bonds in the second half of the year if necessary [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant turmoil, characterized by a sharp decline in stock indices, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury demand and fiscal policy uncertainties [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones index fell nearly 500 points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.5%, and the dollar index dropped below 100 [1]. - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged by 15%, indicating heightened investor anxiety [1]. - Gold prices soared to $3,315 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the market chaos [1]. Group 2: Treasury Auction and Demand - A recent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds saw a final yield of 5.047%, which is 24 basis points higher than the previous auction in April [1]. - This auction result highlighted a significant drop in demand for U.S. Treasuries, forcing the Treasury Department to offer higher yields to attract buyers [1][3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a challenging situation, having maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May 7 meeting [3][5]. - Powell emphasized the unpredictability of policy decisions, particularly in light of tariff-related uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration [3][5]. - The Fed's ability to lower interest rates may be constrained by rising inflation pressures and ongoing labor market strength, with wage growth reaching an annual rate of 3.9% [5][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts - The Trump administration is pushing for lower interest rates, with Treasury Secretary expressing a goal to reduce rates to a ten-year low [5]. - A new tax reform bill passed by the House Budget Committee is expected to reduce household tax burdens by approximately $140 billion annually, equivalent to 0.5% of GDP [5][8]. - Concerns about the lack of fiscal restraint have been voiced by Fed officials, indicating that higher tariffs could limit the Fed's ability to act on interest rates [7][10]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index rebounded by 19.5% from its April lows, but underlying concerns about rising federal spending and long-term bond yields persist [8]. - A stark contrast between tariff revenue and soaring national debt has led to increased selling pressure in the bond market [8][10]. - The upcoming debt ceiling deadline in August and potential fiscal shortfalls from tax cuts may further complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10].