Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU is preparing to escalate countermeasures against the US tariffs in order to negotiate better agreements [1][5] - Most US trading partners prefer to reach a preliminary agreement with the US by July 9, followed by further negotiations [1][3] - The EU aims to reduce additional tariffs imposed by the US on sectors like steel and aluminum, while acknowledging the difficulty in eliminating the baseline 10% tariff on EU exports [4][5] Group 2 - The US government is likely to extend the negotiation deadlines for countries that are seen as negotiating in good faith, such as the EU [3][4] - The EU is preparing a package of tariffs on US goods worth €95 billion as a countermeasure if negotiations do not yield favorable results [5] - Other countries like India and Japan are also in negotiations with the US, but progress has been limited due to disagreements on key issues such as agricultural products and automotive tariffs [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the container shipping market, due to the cease - fire news between Iran and Israel and some shipping companies reducing spot prices, most contracts declined except the 06 contract. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the long - term freight rate is not expected to be overly high under the background of the tariff trade war. It is recommended to operate with caution [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped to a more than two - week low due to the decline in capesize ship freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, while the medium - sized ship market is expected to show an oscillating trend [13][17]. - In the tanker shipping market, the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil shipping market, and the BDTI has rebounded. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On June 24, 2025, most container shipping futures contracts declined, with EC2508 closing at 1772 points, down 5.49% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1937.14 points, up 14.11% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $1835/TEU on June 20, down 0.49% month - on - month [2][4]. - Logic Analysis: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered. Maersk's reduction of spot prices in the second week of July has led to concerns about an inflection point. In terms of demand, the possible extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations reduces the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from June to September 2025 is expected to increase in July. The repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cause the far - month contracts to fall again [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is weakly oscillating. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7]. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the comprehensive PMI was 52.8. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh is severely congested. There are repeated developments in the Iran - Israel cease - fire news [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a more than two - week low, with the capesize ship freight index dropping and the panamax ship freight index rising [13]. - Spot Freight Rates: On June 23, the freight rates of some capesize ship routes declined, while those of some panamax ship routes increased [14]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazil's soybean export is expected to reach 1437 tons in June. In May, China's imports of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [15]. - Logic Analysis: The capesize ship market is pessimistic about future freight rates, and the panamax ship market has a slight increase in freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to oscillate [17]. Industry News - The inventory of seven major iron ore ports in Australia and Brazil increased. Typhoon "Sepat" is approaching Japan [18][19]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Rates: On June 23, the Baltic Crude Oil Transport Index (BDTI) was 1099, up 4.27% month - on - month, and the Baltic Product Oil Transport Index (BCTI) was 720, up 1.69% month - on - month. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums [21]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term demand is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the impact of market sentiment on freight rates needs to be observed [21]. Industry News - Israel will strongly respond to Iran's violation of the cease - fire. HSBC predicts the future trend of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production and exports increased in April [22][24]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures in the report, including the SCFIS European and US West lines index, SCFI comprehensive index, BDI index, BDTI, and BCTI, etc., which visually present the historical trends of relevant data [25][33][39].

印度财长称，印度与美国和欧盟的贸易谈判正在紧密进行中。 ...

Group 1 - The Thai Finance Minister anticipates that trade negotiations with the United States will be extended following a 90-day suspension of tariffs [1]

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：仍在为下一轮贸易谈判的时机而努力。 ...

Group 1 - The core discussion between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump focused on alleviating the Middle East conflict [1] - They emphasized the commitment to strengthening NATO at the upcoming summit [1] - The conversation also included updates on ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries [1]

今起加征。 据央视新闻此前报道，美国商务部宣布将自6月23日起对多种钢制家用电器加征关税，包括洗碗机、洗衣机和 冰箱等"钢铁衍生产品"。 据美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）发布的通知，此次关税调整将八大类家用电器及相关产品新增为"钢铁衍生 产品"，统一适用50%的税率。征税金额将根据各类产品中所含钢铁组件的价值进行核算。 八类家用电器及相关产品，具体包括组合式冰箱、冷冻柜；小型和大型干衣机；洗衣机；洗碗机；卧式和立式 冷冻柜；烹饪炉、灶具和烤箱；食物垃圾处理器；焊接金属架等。 新规适用于美国东部时间2025年6月23日凌晨00:01或之后入境或从仓库提取的商品。不过，该政策也设定了例 外条款，如果产品使用的是在美国本土熔铸的钢铁原料，即便在海外完成加工，也可以享受免税待遇。 此次是美国总统特朗普政府自3月抬高进口钢铝关税以来的第二次扩展关税产品范围。 据了解，特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。3月12日，特朗普 对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普 宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to impact various industries, particularly in the appliance sector, as new tariffs are set to be implemented on steel-derived products, including major household appliances [1][2][10]. Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on multiple steel-derived household appliances effective June 23, including dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [2][5]. - Eight categories of household appliances have been added to the list of "steel-derived products," which will be uniformly subject to the 50% tariff rate [6][7]. - The tariff amount will be calculated based on the value of steel components in each product [6]. Impact on Consumers and Employment - The new tariff policy is expected to further burden U.S. consumers, as a study by the University of Chicago and the Federal Reserve indicates that while some jobs have been created, the cost per job is significantly high at $817,000 [10][11]. - The tariffs on washing machines have also indirectly affected the prices of dryers, as they are often sold as complementary products [11]. U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are fraught with challenges, with the U.S. demanding what EU officials consider "unbalanced" concessions [3][4][13]. - If no agreement is reached by the July 9 deadline, the U.S. may impose a 50% tariff on most EU goods, which could have severe economic repercussions for the EU [16][18]. - The EU is preparing countermeasures, including a list of U.S. products worth €210 billion targeted for tariffs, and an additional €95 billion list in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum [17][18]. Key Industries Under Discussion - The U.S. and EU are engaged in discussions regarding critical industries such as steel and aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation, focusing on tariffs and non-tariff barriers [20].

"大浪淘沙"，在不确定中找寻确定性 2025 年 06 月 22 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预 测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局" 下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产 品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 2025 年三季度宏观经济与大类资产展望 1.2025 年 5 月财政数据点评：5 月财政：找 寻"抗风险"的答案-2025/06/21 2.经济动态跟踪："国补"继续下的消费后劲- 2025/06/19 3.美联储政策观察：6 月议息：谁能"逼"出 联储的降息？-2025/06/18 4.重新讨论变局下的资 ...

市场消息：欧盟认为美国在贸易谈判中推动不平衡的让步。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...