证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 中信银行(601998) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 中长期资金助力价值发现 ——瑞众人寿举牌中信银行点评 投资要点 ❑ 基本面：盈利差距收窄 中信银行当前盈利能力领先股份行平均，但较头部银行招行仍有差距。展望未 来，中信银行和头部银行的盈利能力差距有望收窄，驱动估值差距收窄。中信 银行 24Q1-3 ROE 10.14%，优于其他股份行平均的 9.95%，但较头部股份行招行 的 15.38%仍有差距。分部拆解后，中信银行盈利能力劣势主要来自零售业务， 而在对公领域有较大优势。展望未来，中信较招行的盈利能力差距有望收窄，主 要归因零售、对公业务的盈利能力差行业性收窄、中信银行加杠杆能力打开。 （1）零售和对公的盈利差距将收窄：①零售业务：投放利率下行+减值压力上 行，零售综合盈利能力下降。②对公业务：行业"反内卷"带来利差水平企稳、 减值压力保持平稳，对公综合盈利能力平稳。我们测算当前新发放按揭贷款的经 济利润约在 53bp，而新发放 10 年期企业贷款的经济利润约在 78~114bp。中信银 行对公业务能力突出（24H1 中信银行对公分部税前 R ...

作 者丨黎雨辰 编 辑丨姜诗蔷 图 源丨IC p h o t o 公募业推动中长期资金入市的工作方案，正呼之欲出。 2 1世纪经济报道记者注意到，此次即将落地的公募基金改革方案初步细节有几大关注点。 一是基金考核指标上新，强调客户盈利与业绩基准 。 方案显示，未来的基金公司及从业人员考核，将会以业绩与投资者服务类指标作为重点。 其中在公募基金高级管理人员考核方面，方案提到要降低规模、排名、收入、利润等指标在考 核中的权重，而公司业绩指标权重的占比要保持过半。 在基金经理考核方面， 新增"投资者获得感"的相关指标 ，则是此次方案的一大亮点。方案指 出，要将净值增长率、基金利润率、盈利客户占比、业绩与基准偏离度、基金利润率等指标加 入基金经理考核，并占据相对较高的权重比例。在基金公司分类评价指标中，盈利客户占比、 业绩比较基准对比等指标也将在未来占据一席之地。 二是进一步推动费率与薪酬改革，强化业绩比较基准的约束作用。 方案初稿进一步强调推动公募基金产品业绩表现与费率挂钩，对于超越业绩比较基准的产品适 当提高费率，对低于业绩比较基准的产品要降低费率。不过据了解，现阶段的方案中暂未提及 费率降低的具体比例。同时， ...

今天大盘整体下跌，到下午跌幅缩小，还在4.9星。 不同风格品种分化比较厉害。 沪深300下跌少一些。 前几天上涨较多的小盘股今天下跌较多。 小盘股弹性大，上涨下跌都更猛烈。 成长风格下跌。 之前比较低迷的价值风格，例如红利、价值、银行等整体上涨。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 价值风格通常比较抗跌，下跌阶段比较稳定，上涨的时候弹性会比成长风格弱一些。 1. 在最近的政府工作报告中，提到了一个对A股等市场影响比较深远的事情： 深化资本市场投融资综合改革，大力推动中长期资金入市。 其实类似的政策，在过去1年已经出来了不少。 （1）去年中央汇金等国家队，买入数千亿沪深300、中证500等指数基金。 并持有至今。 指数基金这几年很火，不过投资的主力，暂时还不是个人。 国家队等机构，成为A股指数基金的最大净买入方和持有方。 （2）提升商业保险投资A股资金的比例。 保险配置债券资产比较多。 但这几年存款、债券收益率降低，部分保险机构，将部分长期债券资金，投入到了股息率比较高的股票资产上。 | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | | 近十年市盈率 盈利收益率 市盈率 市净率 股息率% ROE% | | 近十年市净率 近十 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The importance of the capital market is highlighted, with a focus on the allocation value of the brokerage sector. The government work report emphasizes stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, indicating a sustained increase in capital market activity, which is expected to support brokerage performance and valuation recovery. Additionally, the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions is likely to optimize the industry structure and enhance brokerage profitability. Attention is recommended for leading brokerages benefiting from increased industry concentration and those with expected mergers and acquisitions [7][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The brokerage sector experienced a slight increase but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index. During the week of March 3-7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.2%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.4%. The brokerage index increased by 0.7%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 0.7 percentage points. The brokerage index's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.43x, with a 37% valuation percentile over the past decade. The top five performing brokerages were Guotai Junan (+5.9%), Xinda Securities (+3.5%), Huaxi Securities (+3%), Huachuang Yinxin (+2.9%), and Shouguang Securities (+2.7%) [3][10]. Industry Weekly Data - **Brokerage Business**: The average daily stock trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15,064 billion yuan, a 9.1% decrease week-on-week. Despite this decline, the trading volume remains at a relatively high level since the beginning of the year. New fund issuance saw stock, mixed, and bond funds at 7 billion, 4.4 billion, and 6.4 billion units respectively, with significant fluctuations in issuance [5][19]. - **Investment Banking**: Six companies conducted equity financing during the week, raising a total of 9.6 billion yuan, with three IPOs raising 1.7 billion yuan and three refinancing deals raising 7.9 billion yuan [23]. - **Capital Intermediation**: As of March 7, the margin financing and securities lending balance reached 19,110 billion yuan, a 0.7% increase week-on-week, marking a two-year high. The financing balance was 18,992 billion yuan, up 0.6%, while the securities lending balance was 11.7 billion yuan, up 5.9%. The margin balance accounted for 2.57% of the total market capitalization of A-shares [6][23].

地产止跌回稳后的投资机遇——申万宏源·2025 资本市场春 季策略会 20250312 摘要 Q&A 2025 年初以来房地产市场的整体表现如何？ 当前房地产价格走势如何？是否出现波动？ 2025 年初以来，房地产市场在春节后出现了明显回暖。数据显示，主流的 20 个城市二手房认购成交量同比增长了 27%，其中杭州和东莞的表现尤为突出， 甚至翻倍。然而，与 2023 年同期相比，这一数据下降了 17%。需要注意的是， 2023 年的基数较高，因为当时疫情放开导致市场表现异常强劲。尽管如此，一 些城市如杭州、成都、深圳、长沙和沈阳在今年的表现仍超过了 2023 年同期水 • 房地产市场需求在房价下跌后自然回升，杭州、成都、深圳等城市认购销 售数据优于过去两年，北京、上海表现稳定。春节后带看量显著回升，预 示认购量有望进一步改善。 • 房地产价格走势略有走弱，挂牌价格下降但成交价格稳定，受季节性因素 和居民资产负债表影响。新房成交推盘比提升至 2.4 倍，表明新房市场去 化速度加快，市场信心有所恢复。 • 土地市场出现积极变化，北京、上海、杭州等地拍出新"地王"，3 月份 溢价率达 16%，头部企业拿地强度上升， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the market [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strengthening of policy expectations, which is anticipated to boost the non-bank financial sector. The government work report has highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, signaling a significant enhancement in the capital market's role [5][8]. - The report suggests that the gradual implementation of policies will likely stabilize the economy, enhance investor confidence, and lead to increased market activity and valuation recovery in the non-bank sector [5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The government work report has elevated the importance of the capital market, explicitly mentioning the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets. This marks a new level of focus on capital market reforms [8]. - The report outlines specific reforms aimed at enhancing the investment and financing mechanisms within the capital market, including promoting long-term capital inflows and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [8]. - The report notes that the securities sector's PB valuation stands at 1.41 times, which is at the 86th percentile of its historical range over the past three years [13]. 2. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report highlights the upcoming implementation of long-term capital assessment policies, which are expected to enhance the participation of insurance funds in long-term equity investments, thereby stabilizing the capital market [28]. - It mentions that since September 2024, various long-term funds have significantly increased their holdings in A-shares, contributing to a 22% growth in the market value of long-term capital [28]. - The expansion of the financial asset investment company's (AIC) equity investment scope is expected to attract more social capital and enhance the support for technology innovation and private enterprises [29]. 3. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report indicates that the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 8,813 billion yuan in the open market during the week, with a significant amount of reverse repos maturing [40]. - It also notes a decrease in short-term funding rates, with the weighted average interest rate for interbank borrowing at 1.94% [46]. 4. Industry News - The report discusses various developments in the securities industry, including the ongoing integration of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which has received regulatory approval [56]. - It highlights the government's focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of the capital market, with specific actions aimed at improving investor returns and promoting long-term investment strategies [56].

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 投资评级 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 增持 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期） : 中长期资金入市空间逐步打开,建议关注券商投资 机会 市场表现: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market for non-bank financials has shown a positive trend, with the non-bank index increasing by 1.24% during the week of March 3 to March 7, 2025. The brokerage sector specifically saw a 0.73% increase, lagging behind the broader market indices [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing efforts by regulatory bodies to facilitate the inflow of medium to long-term funds into the A-share market, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and improve the overall market ecosystem. Since September 2024, net purchases by insurance funds and various pension funds in the A-share market have reached approximately 290 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% increase in the market value held by these long-term funds [1]. - The report suggests that the ongoing consolidation within the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory encouragement, is expected to enhance industry competitiveness and resource allocation. It recommends focusing on brokerage firms involved in mergers and acquisitions, such as Guotai Junan and Zhongtai Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Weekly Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 10,064 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 15.32% week-on-week. The average turnover rate was 3.26%, down by 0.34 percentage points [10]. - As of March 7, 2025, the total equity financing scale for the year reached 740.23 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 53 billion yuan and refinancing accounting for 687 billion yuan [15]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - The insurance sector saw a 1.72% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points. The median comprehensive claim ratio for personal short-term health insurance among 124 insurers was approximately 38.20% [6]. - The report notes that the overall claim ratio for personal short-term health insurance remains low, with a long-term target of around 70% being more favorable for both consumers and insurers [7]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the regulatory environment, highlighting the recent announcements aimed at expanding the scope of financial asset investment companies and supporting insurance funds' participation in equity investments [25]. - It also mentions the potential for further monetary policy easing, as indicated by the People's Bank of China, which may support the financial markets [25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [8] Core Viewpoints - The government work report during the Two Sessions first mentioned "stabilizing the stock market," reflecting a strong commitment to boosting the capital market. Compared to previous years, the content related to the capital market has significantly increased, indicating the government's determination to enhance the capital market's role in economic development [4][14]. - Focus on the follow-up policies that catalyze the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, including the scale of two monetary policy tools and related institutional optimizations, as well as the revision of long-term fund assessment policies [5][15]. Data Tracking - In February, A-share new accounts reached 2.84 million, surpassing the previous 11 months [49]. - The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 1.7 trillion yuan, down 14.6% week-on-week [28]. - As of March 7, the A-share margin balance was 1.9059 trillion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.8941 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date average margin balance increase of 19.1% [28][29]. - The public fund sector saw the establishment of 20 new equity funds this week, totaling 11.47 billion units, a decrease of 54.4% week-on-week [28]. Investment Suggestions - The market's trading activity has significantly increased, suggesting a focus on internet brokerages with high trading elasticity and beta attributes, such as Dongfang Wealth. Additionally, with the recovery of the equity market and the rise of passive investment, it is recommended to pay attention to leading brokerages with advantages in equity asset management and ETF management, such as CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities [6][16].

Key Points - The article discusses various important news and updates related to the investment landscape, including new stock offerings, economic data, and government policies affecting trade and real estate [2][4][5][6][7][8][11][12][19][20]. Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Jiangnan New Materials has a new stock offering with a subscription code of 732124 and an issue price of 10.54 yuan per share, with a subscription limit of 11,500 shares [2]. Group 2: Trade Policies - The State Council Tariff Commission announced that Canada will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles starting October 1, 2024, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products starting October 22, 2024. In response, China will impose tariffs on Canadian canola oil, oilseed meal, and peas starting March 20, 2025, and a 25% tariff on Canadian seafood and pork [4]. Group 3: Economic Data - In February 2025, China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food and tobacco prices down by 1.9%, contributing to a 0.54 percentage point decline in CPI. The producer price index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% [5]. Group 4: Real Estate and Urban Development - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that all old residential areas built before 2000 will be included in urban renewal projects, with a focus on improving living conditions and community facilities [6][7]. Group 5: Corporate Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 63% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 3.327 billion yuan, and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per share [11]. - Guomai Technology announced that its AI-related technologies have not yet generated commercial revenue, and the company is still in the prototype development stage [13]. - Warner Pharmaceutical plans to invest up to 500 million yuan in a new green manufacturing base for high-end raw materials and intermediates [18]. - Nuo Cheng Jianhua presented significant clinical trial results for its treatment of psoriasis at the AAD annual meeting, showing promising efficacy and safety [19].