Core Insights - The rise of emotional consumption is creating a new growth area in the economy, particularly among the younger generation who are increasingly focused on health and wellness products [1][2][3] - The market for traditional Chinese herbal drinks, particularly health-focused beverages, is experiencing explosive growth, with projections indicating a market size of 30 billion yuan in 2024, up from 4.5 billion yuan in 2023, representing a growth rate of 566% [2][8][9] Industry Trends - The health crisis among young people is driving a wave of self-care and wellness practices, with many adopting new routines to combat health issues exacerbated by work stress and lifestyle choices [3][5][6] - The health and wellness market in China has surpassed 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with the 18-35 age group accounting for 62% of this market [6][7] - The demand for convenient, ready-to-drink herbal beverages is reshaping consumer preferences, with a significant portion of young consumers favoring products that are easy to consume and align with their health-conscious lifestyles [8][9] Consumer Behavior - The primary consumers of herbal drinks are aged 18 to 36, contributing nearly 70% of sales, with a notable focus on products that address specific health concerns such as fatigue and sleep issues [13][15] - Young consumers are increasingly viewing herbal drinks as a "health tax," opting for these beverages over traditional sugary drinks to align with their health goals [9][10][15] - There is a notable difference in purchasing preferences based on gender and lifestyle, with women often choosing drinks that promote blood health and men leaning towards those that enhance energy [16][17] Market Dynamics - Major beverage companies are rapidly entering the herbal drink market, leveraging supply chain advantages to capture market share, with brands like Yuanqi Forest achieving a market share of 58.6% in this segment [17][18] - The market is characterized by a proliferation of products, but challenges such as product homogeneity and consumer acceptance of flavors remain significant hurdles [18] - The industry is witnessing a "battle of beverages," with both traditional brands and new entrants competing for consumer attention in the herbal drink space [17][18]

Group 1: Pop Mart - Pop Mart's revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 165% year-on-year, with China revenue growing by 95% to 100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475% to 480% [1] - The company's market capitalization reached nearly 370 billion HKD, marking a more than tenfold increase from its low point in March 2024 [1] - The success is attributed to the shift in consumer behavior towards emotional value, with the Labubu series generating over 3 billion HKD in sales in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 68% year-on-year increase [1][2] Group 2: Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart established its overseas business center in 2018, with overseas revenue reaching 1.066 billion HKD in 2023 and a significant increase in store count to 130 by 2024 [3] - Online sales in overseas markets grew by 834% in 2024, with notable increases from platforms like Shopee and TikTok [3] - The company tailored products to local markets, achieving a 375.2% year-on-year growth in revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas, accounting for 38.9% of total revenue [3] Group 3: Mixue Ice City - Mixue Ice City achieved a market capitalization of nearly 110 billion HKD following a successful IPO, with shares rising 43.21% on the first day of trading [4][5] - The company focuses on high cost-performance beverages, with 57.4% of its stores located in lower-tier cities, tapping into the growing demand for affordable brands [5] - Mixue's supply chain efficiency, including a 12-hour logistics network and self-sourced ingredients, has led to a 90% survival rate for county-level stores [6] Group 4: Lao Pu Gold - Lao Pu Gold's stock price surged over 20 times within a year, reaching a market capitalization of 170 billion HKD, driven by a revenue increase of 167.5% to 8.506 billion HKD in 2024 [7][8] - The brand's unique pricing strategy, emphasizing design and craftsmanship, has attracted high-net-worth consumers seeking cultural significance in their purchases [9] - Lao Pu Gold's collaboration with traditional cultural IPs has enhanced its appeal, aligning with the rising trend of spiritual consumption in the new consumer landscape [9][10]

本报记者 毛艺融 张芗逸 屈珂薇 国家统计局最新数据显示，今年1月份至5月份，服务零售额同比增长5.2%，增速比1月份至4月份加快 0.1个百分点，高于同期商品零售额增速0.1个百分点。 同时，随着消费需求扩容升级，品质化、个性化、多样化特点尤为突出，消费者从"满足基本需 求"向"追求生活品质"转变。除餐饮住宿、家政服务、养老托育等基础性消费外，文化娱乐消费、旅游 消费、体育消费等改善型服务消费，正迸发出前所未有的活力。 文化娱乐消费方面，"情绪消费"成为新热点。不少年轻人愿意为一场演唱会或者音乐节，来一场说走就 走的旅行；直播间里，LABUBU等盲盒玩具的稀缺款受到消费者抢购；电商平台上，能够解压的硅 胶"捏捏乐"以及售价0.5元的"爱因斯坦的脑子"等虚拟商品受到年轻人欢迎。 "我今天是来集章的，也顺便看看暑假还能去哪儿玩。"6月21日，2025北京国际文旅消费博览会现场人 头攒动，一位大学生向《证券日报》记者展示着手中的手账本，上面盖满了全国不同省份的文创印章。 此次博览会期间，各大展台前都挤满了游客，他们或品尝特色美食，或了解特色旅游路线，集章打卡、 人偶巡游、主题演艺等活动给他们带来满满体验感。 事实 ...

Group 1 - The rise of emotional consumption is becoming a new growth driver in the economy, with trends such as blind boxes, healing economy, AI companionship, and self-indulgent consumption gaining traction among Generation Z consumers [6] - The popularity of products like Pop Mart's Labubu dolls and the societal interest in emotional consumption highlight a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger demographics [6] - A series of reports on the emotional economy will be launched, focusing on emotional consumption and the underlying industrial ecosystem and capital movements, particularly in the context of the otome game industry in China [6] Group 2 - The appointment of Xu Xiubin as the new Party Secretary and Chairman of Guangzhou Financial Holdings Group indicates a leadership change within the company [9] - The resignation of Dong Fang as Deputy General Manager of China Merchants Fund, who is set to become the President of China Merchants Wealth Management, reflects ongoing personnel shifts in the financial sector [10] - The approval of Qian Xi to serve as the Chairman of Zhuhai China Resources Bank marks a significant leadership transition within a major city commercial bank [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The 618 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [23][24] - The beauty sector performed well during the 618 festival, with total GMV across four major platforms reaching 65.9 billion yuan, growing over 10% year-on-year [23][24] - International high-end beauty brands showed signs of recovery, with brands like Lancôme and Estée Lauder maintaining strong positions on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2062.20 points, down 2.75% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points [5][14] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 7.89%, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][17] 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The 618 shopping festival was extended to the longest duration in history, from May 13 to June 20, 2025 [23] - Tmall's GMV during the festival grew by 10%, marking the largest increase in three years, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [24][29] - Douyin's e-commerce saw over 60,000 brands doubling their sales, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [24][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][35] - Recommended companies include Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, Mao Ge Ping, and Pei Lai Ya, among others [38] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a net profit increase of 253.9% [37] - Mao Ge Ping achieved a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan for FY2024, growing by 34.6%, with a net profit increase of 33% [37] - Pei Lai Ya's revenue for 2024 was 10.778 billion yuan, up 21%, with a net profit increase of 30% [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the "new consumption" sector, particularly focusing on Pop Mart and its associated IPs, highlighting concerns over valuation and market sustainability following a rapid price drop in collectibles and stocks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price fell from a high of 283.4 HKD per share on June 12 to 239.6 HKD per share by June 20, marking a decline of over 15% [6][5]. - The market capitalization of Pop Mart decreased by more than 50 billion HKD from its peak of 3800 billion HKD [6]. - Other companies in the "new consumption" sector, such as Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group, also experienced significant declines of approximately 19% and 17%, respectively [2][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Fund managers are divided in their outlook on the new consumption sector, with some optimistic about its growth potential while others express concerns over inflated valuations and potential bubbles [3][9]. - The recent market correction is viewed as a "stress test" for new consumption companies, providing an opportunity to reassess investment strategies and focus on genuine consumer demand rather than speculative trends [4][16]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - As of June 20, Pop Mart had a dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 95.3, significantly higher than traditional consumer leaders like Kweichow Moutai, which has a P/E ratio of 20.2 [10][11]. - The article highlights that the valuation of Pop Mart and other new consumption companies may not be sustainable, especially when compared to established global brands like Disney and Hasbro [11][12]. - Some fund managers argue that the current market conditions reflect a speculative bubble, with valuations not justified by underlying business fundamentals [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, citing ongoing consumer interest and market expansion opportunities [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior and preferences in the new consumption landscape, suggesting that future investment strategies should focus on demographic insights rather than traditional metrics [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of emotional consumption reflects the evolving spiritual needs of consumers, particularly among the Z generation, who seek products that provide emotional value and personal expression [2][3]. Group 1: Emotional Consumption Trends - Recent years have seen a surge in popularity for products like trendy toys, virtual collectibles, esports equipment, and cycling gear, which cater to individualistic and entertainment needs [1]. - Emotional consumption is characterized by products that emphasize healing, stress relief, and self-pleasure, with a focus on "emotional value" as a core selling point [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The phenomenon of emotional consumption is exemplified by the popularity of LABUBU, which highlights both the demand for emotional connection and the potential for market manipulation through scarcity marketing [2]. - The "tulip mania" effect in economics warns against the false prosperity created by artificial scarcity, suggesting that the pricing of emotional consumption products should not inflate irrationally [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Cultural Considerations - There is a need for clearer regulatory frameworks regarding the attributes of emotional consumption products, especially concerning financial operations, to prevent speculative behaviors [3]. - Encouraging a more sustainable emotional consumption environment requires enhancing supply and reducing frenzied buying, allowing consumers to enjoy a more relaxed experience [3].

情绪消费的兴起，是时代发展的写照，意味着人们的精神需求有了更丰富的延伸。最近爆火的 LABUBU，也是情绪消费崛起的一个典型。不过，LABUBU走红的过程，也让人们看到了情绪消费的 另一面。当"真爱粉"在为情感共鸣、文化认同、精神慰藉买单时，供给端的不充分、抑或稀缺营销，让 抢购、收藏LABUBU逐渐被异化，甚至成为"黄牛党"、资本方的投机、炒作工具。对于情绪消费品的属 性边界，监管层也有必要进一步厘清，特别是对于金融化操作，应予以约束。同时，也要为情绪消费提 供更良善的土壤，丰富消费供给，尽量减少疯狂抢购，让情绪消费回归应有的"松弛感"，可持续发展。 (证券时报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior in China, highlighting the rise of "new consumption" and its contrast with traditional consumption, emphasizing the emotional value and social aspects of modern purchasing decisions [1][4][21]. Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - Domestic consumption has become a primary focus for the economy, with various government initiatives like subsidies and consumption vouchers aimed at boosting spending [1][2]. - China's household consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, significantly lower than the 70% in the US and 60% in Japan, indicating substantial growth potential [3]. - There is a notable disparity in the consumption market, with traditional sectors declining while new consumption categories are thriving [4]. Group 2: Traditional vs. New Consumption - Traditional dining sectors are struggling, with significant losses reported by established brands, while new beverage brands like Mixue Ice City are rapidly expanding [5]. - Traditional retail channels are experiencing a decline, with hypermarkets down 11.4% for four consecutive years, while snack stores are booming [7][8]. - The high-end liquor market is facing challenges, with prices for premium brands like Moutai dropping significantly, reflecting inventory pressures [9]. Group 3: Emotional and Social Aspects of New Consumption - New consumption is characterized by a shift from basic needs to "self-pleasing" demands, focusing on emotional value rather than practical utility [21][22]. - The success of products like LABUBU from Pop Mart illustrates the importance of social media and emotional marketing in driving consumer interest [30][31]. - Over 40% of young consumers prioritize emotional value in their purchases, with a significant portion seeking to please themselves through spending [35][36]. Group 4: Evolution of Consumer Behavior - The article outlines the historical evolution of consumer behavior in China, indicating three major shifts in consumption patterns since the 1990s [47][48]. - The emergence of the third consumption era reflects a transition towards valuing symbolic meanings over practical use, aligning with global trends [52][53]. - As consumer needs evolve, there is a potential shift towards a fourth consumption era, characterized by rational consumption and a focus on value [68][72]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The new consumption trend is expected to continue growing, particularly in sectors like pet economy and new consumer electronics, despite potential market corrections [62][63]. - The interplay between traditional and new consumption is seen as a driver for domestic demand recovery, supported by policy initiatives [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior in China, highlighting the rise of "new consumption" and its contrast with traditional consumption, emphasizing the importance of emotional value in purchasing decisions [1][2][4][30]. Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - Domestic consumption in China accounts for less than 40% of GDP, compared to 70% in the US and 60% in Japan, indicating significant growth potential [3]. - There is a notable disparity in the consumption market, with traditional sectors declining while new consumption categories are thriving [4][5]. - Traditional dining categories are struggling, with brands like 湊湊火锅 closing 73 stores and incurring losses exceeding 3.5 billion yuan, while new tea beverage brands like 蜜雪冰城 are rapidly expanding [6]. Group 2: Traditional vs. New Consumption - Traditional consumption focuses on essential daily needs, while new consumption shifts towards "self-pleasing" demands [21][22]. - The rise of "emotional consumption" is evident, with over 40% of young consumers prioritizing emotional value in their purchases [31]. - The concept of new consumption encompasses various sectors, including snack retail and new tea beverages, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and emotional purchasing [34]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes that new consumption trends are not merely a passing fad but are rooted in changing consumer environments and behaviors [54]. - Despite the current enthusiasm for new consumption, many companies are experiencing stock price corrections, indicating potential overvaluation [52][53]. - Long-term prospects for sectors like pet economy and new consumer electronics appear promising, with emerging trends suggesting continued growth [55][56].