Core Insights - The current gold market is experiencing a strong cycle driven by "safe-haven demand + policy expectations," with technical breakthroughs opening up upward space after reaching historical highs [2] - Geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy movements are key variables influencing short-term gold prices [2] - The global economic trend of "de-dollarization" and restructuring of the monetary credit system will continue to strengthen gold's strategic position in the medium to long term [2] Price Movements - As of October 15, 2025, spot gold prices surged by 1% to $4,186.61, while New York futures rose to $4,205.80, setting a new historical high [1] - The latest international gold spot price is $4,184 per ounce, equivalent to approximately ¥958 per gram [2] - Gold T+D is reported at ¥953.8 per gram, up by ¥11.95, a rise of 1.27% [3] - Shanghai gold main contract is priced at ¥956.74 per gram, increasing by ¥16.1, a rise of 1.71%, also reaching a historical high [3] Retail Prices - Retail prices for physical gold from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang exceed ¥1,230 per gram, with daily increases ranging from 1.65% to 1.99% [3] - Bank investment gold bar prices range between ¥959 and ¥988 per gram, with increases of 0.73% to 2.54% [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion due to rising trade concerns and geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate below 151.50, with a focus on whether the 151.20 support level will hold [1] - Asian countries have announced special port fees on US vessels and tightened export controls, exacerbating fears of a deteriorating global trade environment, while President Trump threatens to impose tariffs up to 100% on goods from Asian countries [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, with a temporary funding bill pushed by Republicans failing to pass, contributing to ongoing fiscal deadlock [1] Group 2 - The recent dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan has created political uncertainty, leading to expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay its planned interest rate hikes, which could limit the appreciation of the yen [2] - Technical analysis indicates that after a strong upward trend, the USD/JPY exchange rate has paused, with a long bearish candle suggesting a potential reversal, which may lead to a rebound in the yen [3] - Key observation points for the USD/JPY exchange rate include 152.10 as a significant level, with support at 151.00, which is the high from August 1 and the low of the recent bearish candle [3]

近期，金价屡创新高。截至10月14日11时41分，现货 黄金 （伦敦金现）报4162.12美元/盎司，涨幅为 0.95%。此前，10月13日晚间，现货黄金站上4100美元/盎司关口，年内每盎司上涨超1400美元，涨幅超 56%，涨幅超过1980年以来的所有年份。受国际金价影响，10月14日国内珠宝品牌足金首饰价格也出现 上涨。从已更新的情况来看，当天 周生生 、 周大福 、老庙黄金等足金 饰品 价格已站上1200元/克的高 位。社交媒体上"囤金"热潮涌动，投资者跟风追高情绪升温。在此背景下， 建设 银行 、 工商银行 等 多家银行密集发布 贵金属 风险提示。 金价上涨的行情还能走多远？金价冲高后会不会回调？此时买入合不合适？且看记者的相关调查采访。 最新行情: 短暂下跌后重拾升势 年内已涨超56% 近日，黄金价格持续创新高。10月8日，黄金价格历史性地突破4000美元/盎司大关。10月9日，COMEX 黄金经历大跌后，10月10日又重拾升势并再次突破4000美元关口。10月13日晚间，金价持续走高，其 中，COMEX黄金12月合约升破4100美元/盎司，涨2.5%；现货黄金报4082.09美元/盎司，涨1.6 ...

智通财经APP获悉，受益于中美贸易紧张局势升级以及市场对美联储今年将进一步降息的预期，黄金价 格攀升至创纪录高位，白银价格亦走高。周三，截至发稿，黄金现货涨近1%，徘徊于每盎司4180美元 附近，此前一度涨至每盎司4185美元的历史新高。白银现货在周二经历剧烈波动后同样于周三走高，截 至发稿涨1.5%，报每盎司52.2美元。 周二，美国国债收益率降至数周来最低水平。美联储主席鲍威尔在周二的讲话中表示，美联储有望在本 月晚些时候再进行一次25个基点的降息，尽管美国政府停摆严重影响了其对经济状况的评估。鲍威尔多 次提到招聘速度缓慢的情况，并指出这种情况可能会进一步恶化。 与此同时，由于中美两大经济体之间的贸易局势在近期有所升级，风险厌恶情绪席卷市场，提升了黄金 的避险吸引力。此外，避险需求还受到美联储独立性遭受威胁、以及美国政府停摆的支撑。 在白银市场，伦敦地区的流动性短缺引发全球范围的实物银抢购潮，推动基准现货价格大幅高于纽约期 货价。周二，随着伦敦白银价格下跌，两地市场价差有所收窄，同时伦敦地区的白银借贷成本也开始下 降，尽管二者仍维持在极高水平。 交易员在美国政府对关键矿物进行所谓"232条款"调查结果公布 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Spot gold has risen nearly 0.9%, reaching a historical high of $4,179.92 per ounce, driven by central banks accumulating gold as official reserves [1] - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, indicating a lack of alternative fiat currency substitutes [1] - Despite achieving double-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, investor participation through ETFs remains low, but recent strong performance in 2025 has attracted investors back to the market [1][2] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut and expectations for two more cuts this year, combined with economic indicators like ADP employment data and manufacturing PMI, have increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a temporary pullback in gold prices, but the overall market sentiment remains strong, suggesting potential for continued upward movement [2] Group 3: ETF Performance and Market Activity - As of October 14, 2025, the gold stock ETF has seen a 3.53% decline, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, while the ETF has experienced a 3.95% increase over the past week [4] - The gold stock ETF has recorded significant trading activity, with a turnover of 29.79% and a total transaction volume of 35.73 million yuan, indicating a vibrant market [4] - The gold stock ETF has achieved a 49.25% increase in net value over the past six months, ranking among the top funds in its category [5] Group 4: Risk and Return Metrics - The gold stock ETF has a maximum drawdown of 8.52% over the past six months, with a recovery period of 28 days, the fastest among comparable funds [6] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, with a focus on tracking the performance of the gold industry index [7] - The top ten weighted stocks in the gold industry index account for 68.2% of the index, highlighting concentration in major players [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged past the $4,100 mark, reaching a new historical high, driven by trade tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.64% to $4,159.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.33%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 3.29% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that officials might halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging some signs of tightening in the money market [1] - Powell suggested a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown impacting the Fed's economic outlook [1] - Fed Governor Bowman noted a weakening in consumer spending and anticipated two more rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Guosen Futures analysis highlighted that the dovish signals from the Fed and expectations of further rate cuts have strengthened the outlook for easing [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - A Bank of America survey indicated that "long gold" has become the most crowded trade, surpassing the "seven giants," suggesting a continued bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector will see significant earnings growth in Q3 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth [3][7]. - The performance growth is primarily driven by rising metal prices and increased production and sales volumes [3]. - The report highlights the impact of recent economic events, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and government shutdown, on gold prices, suggesting a long-term upward trend for gold due to low domestic reserves in China [5]. - Industrial metals like copper are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints from incidents like the mudslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and export demand in the steel sector, recommending stable dividend-paying stocks [5]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast - Companies with over 50% year-on-year growth include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold [3]. - Companies with 20-50% growth include Huayou Cobalt and Baosteel [3]. - Companies with 0-20% growth include Shengda Resources and Western Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are expected to rise due to interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [5]. - Silver is also highlighted as a potential investment due to a favorable gold-silver ratio [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to increase due to supply disruptions, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended [5]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as domestic production capacity becomes constrained [5]. Steel Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and potential for valuation recovery, such as Baosteel and Hesteel [5]. Minor Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Huayou Cobalt recommended [5]. - Lithium supply is currently more relaxed, with attention on changes in Yichun's mica mines [5]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends investing in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, surpassing $4100 per ounce and approaching the $4200 mark, with historical highs being reached [1][3]. Gold Price Movement - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $4140.6 per ounce, up 0.76% for the day, with an intraday high of $4179.748 per ounce [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a significant increase, rising 0.45% to $4151.7 per ounce, with a peak of $4190.9 per ounce [3][4]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The chief economist of Nanhua Futures, Zhu Bin, identifies three main reasons for the rise in gold prices: 1. The extensive issuance of currency by the U.S. has led to severe inflation and a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar [5]. 2. The U.S. government's misuse of the dollar's hegemonic status has undermined its position as a "safe asset" [6]. 3. Pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve has compromised its independence, shaking the foundation of the dollar as a global currency [6]. Investment Trends - Wang Zheng, general manager of Shangyi Investment, notes that the rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle typically leads to significant gains in gold [7]. 2. Global geopolitical risks and uncertainties are pushing funds towards gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. 3. Continuous gold purchases by central banks provide a solid support for gold prices, alongside a strategic demand for de-dollarization [7]. Market Dynamics - The chief asset research officer at GF Securities, Dai Kang, describes gold as a super-national sovereign credit, akin to a perpetual, non-interest-bearing bond. He suggests that the long-term investment logic for gold will be shaped by its super-national sovereign credit value [8]. - The ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt may continue to erode the credibility of the dollar, while the trend of de-dollarization, combined with geopolitical risks and central bank demand for gold, is favorable for gold in the medium to long term [8]. Short-term Considerations - Wang Zheng cautions that gold prices may face technical pressure in the short term, suggesting a need for investors to be wary of potential pullbacks. He emphasizes that while the core value of gold remains intact, market conditions may require careful position adjustments [8].

官 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色金属行业 2025 年三季度业绩前瞻 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 三季度业绩前瞻: 我们对重点公司 2025 三季度业绩进行预测，2025 年前三季度业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有紫金 O 矿业、洛阳铝业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际、株冶集团、湖南黄金、金诚信、 金力永磁，同比增速在 20-50%区间的有华友钻业、宝钢股份、南钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材, 同比增速在 0-20%区间的有盛达资源、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天山铝业、中信特钢, 业绩增长主要受益于相关金属价格同比上涨、产销量同比增长；2025Q3 业绩环比增速在 50%以 上的有盛达资源、铜陵有色、金力永磁，在 20-50%区间的有山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金，在 0-20%区间的有紫金矿业、山金国际、株冶集团、金诚信、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天 山铝业、新疆众和、华友钻业、 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current copper market is influenced by the resonance of the US government shutdown - driven risk - aversion demand and the supply shortage caused by the Indonesian mine accident. Copper prices are fluctuating around 85,000. Before these two factors reverse, it is not advisable to easily short copper prices. Although the tariff issue has re - emerged, the "TACO" trading logic still holds, and there is a possibility of a repeat of the Qingming Festival market. For the future market, the current price is high, but shorting should not be done lightly. If one wants to participate, a small - position long - term allocation can be considered [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesian mine accident has continuously pushed up the ore price. Charts show the market price of 20% copper concentrate, TC price, refined - scrap copper spot price, and copper import profit [7][9][11]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Futures and Spot Market Price**: The mine accident has become the dominant factor. Charts display the Shanghai copper futures - spot price, Yangshan Free Trade Zone premium to LME, and foreign copper futures prices [14][16][18]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation has continued to increase. Charts present overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, LME copper fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position [19][20][24]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Charts show the net import volume of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and scrap copper [29][30][31]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Charts display the monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, production cost and profit, and weekly inventory [34][35][36]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Charts show the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, US Treasury yield, and the relationship between the US benchmark interest rate and inflation [42][43][45]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Charts present US employment data, market confidence index, social retail sales, and inventory data [51][52][53]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, and the PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Charts show China's M1, M2 growth rate, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, and other data [59][60][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The power grid and new energy sectors provide support. Charts show the monthly demand for electrolytic copper, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate [71][72][73].