Core Argument - The U.S. Supreme Court will hold oral arguments regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump, focusing on whether he has the authority to set import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Authority and Historical Context - The central issue is whether the Constitution's grant of exclusive tax and trade powers to Congress still holds, and if the executive branch can set tariffs without public oversight [1]. - The case arises from lower court rulings that deemed Trump's tariff policies illegal, prompting the government to appeal [1]. - Historical precedents show that U.S. courts, including the Supreme Court, have allowed tariffs under similar laws in specific circumstances, such as during the Nixon administration [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Arguments - The Trump administration argues that revoking the legal authority for tariffs could lead to significant costs and a larger federal revenue gap than previously disclosed [3]. - However, proponents of a liberal stance dispute this claim, noting that U.S. tariff revenue is relatively limited [3]. Group 3: Legal Text and Interpretation - The International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 does not explicitly mention "tariffs," raising questions about whether "regulating" imports includes the authority to impose tariffs [6]. - The Trump administration contends that regulating imports inherently includes taxation, while the opposing side argues that Congress would have specified "tariffs" if that were the intent [6]. Group 4: Potential Outcomes and Future Implications - Even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for tariffs, it may not dismantle the protectionist framework established by his administration [6]. - Existing legal frameworks, such as the 1974 Trade Act and provisions from the 1930 Tariff Act, could still support tariff policies regardless of the court's decision [6]. - The oral arguments on November 5 will be a significant event in the intersection of U.S. law and politics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy, with significant opposition from businesses, lawmakers, and former officials, who argue that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs is illegal [1][2]. Group 1: Legal and Political Context - Approximately 40 lawsuits have been filed challenging the Trump administration's tariff policy ahead of the Supreme Court hearing [1]. - The U.S. Senate passed a resolution to terminate the comprehensive tariff policy with a vote of 51-47, indicating a division within the Republican Party regarding tariff policies [1]. - Legal experts highlight that the case raises fundamental constitutional questions about the division of powers between Congress and the President regarding tariff imposition [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce argues that the tariff policy has caused significant economic damage to businesses, leading to delayed capital investments and affecting consumer spending [2]. - The potential ruling could impact over $50 billion in additional tariffs expected to be collected by the government in 2025, which had previously alleviated concerns about U.S. debt levels [3][4]. Group 3: Future Legal Strategies - Even if the Supreme Court limits the use of IEEPA for imposing tariffs, the Trump administration may resort to other legal avenues, such as Section 301 and Section 232 investigations, to impose tariffs [4][5]. - Legal experts express concern that if the Supreme Court restricts the use of IEEPA, the administration might increase the frequency of targeted investigations, potentially leading to broader economic impacts [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential interest rate cut in December, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar index [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated strong differing opinions on discussions for December's rate decision during the October meeting [1] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, appointed by Trump, firmly supports a 50 basis point cut, arguing that the current 25 basis point cut is too conservative [1] - Fed's Daly believes inflation remains above target levels and suggests that the federal funds rate cannot decrease rapidly [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Their Impact - The divergence in the Fed's stance is attributed to conflicting labor market and inflation data [3] - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm payroll additions consistently below the 100,000 mark, while inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, with September's core CPI and nominal CPI both at 3% [3] - The inflation rate has plateaued, making further declines challenging, and excessive rate cuts could lead to a rapid rebound in inflation [3] Group 3: External Influences on Monetary Policy - Trump's tariff policies and strong intervention in the Fed have increased uncertainty in monetary policy [3] - Trump advocates for rapid and substantial rate cuts, while Powell maintains a cautious approach, leading to speculation about the next Fed chair [3] - Tariff policies may elevate import prices, posing a potential inflationary risk, which is a primary concern for Powell [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - From a technical perspective, the US dollar index is in a bottoming phase under a bearish trend, with a smooth upward movement since September 17 [5] - The dollar index reached a high of 99.96, nearing the 100 mark, indicating a potential completion of the bottoming structure [5] - If the resistance level at 100.23 is breached, it could confirm the completion of the bottoming phase, suggesting a gradual strengthening of the dollar index [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to experience wide - range fluctuations. The tariff policy narrative is uncertain, and the ongoing US government shutdown and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices. However, the strengthening of the US dollar and long - term yields pose potential pressure on gold prices. The weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar may hinder the upward movement of gold prices. If the narrative of the end of the US government shutdown heats up, it may also suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. It is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 890 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 915.58 yuan/gram, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11238 yuan/kilogram, down 217 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 144602 hands, down 6771 hands; those of Shanghai Silver are 257090 hands, down 4377 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 101888 hands, down 2567 hands; those of Shanghai Silver are 93370 hands, down 192 hands [3] 3.2现货市场 - The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold is 87816 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 665610 kilograms, up 6759 kilograms. The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 916 yuan/gram, down 1.5 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11343 yuan/kilogram, down 7 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.42 yuan/gram, up 5.5 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 105 yuan/kilogram, up 210 yuan [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1041.78 tons, up 2.58 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15189.82 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 35.96%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.96%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 25.83%, down 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 25.83%, down 0.59% [3] 3.5 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways. A Fed governor called for more aggressive interest - rate cuts, saying that the Fed's policy is too tight. Another Fed governor said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and the Fed's dual - mandate risks have increased. The US October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7, remaining below the boom - bust line, and the tariff policy still suppresses the manufacturing outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook supports the recent interest rate cuts, emphasizing that the risks in the job market outweigh the persistent inflation pressures [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Cook echoed Fed Chair Powell's statement that the current policy interest rate remains in a "slightly restrictive" range after the recent rate cuts [1][4]. - The decision to cut rates was made after weighing the risks of rising inflation against the risks of a weakening job market [4]. - Cook highlighted the importance of maintaining policy flexibility, indicating that every meeting, including the upcoming one on December 9-10, is a potential opportunity for action [4]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Cook warned that inflation in the U.S. may remain elevated over the next year due to the gradual impact of tariffs [2][5]. - She noted that communication with business leaders indicates that the full effect of tariffs on consumer prices has not yet been realized, with some companies adopting strategies to manage inventory costs before adjusting retail prices [5]. - Cook expects inflation to remain high in the coming year but believes that the impact of tariffs is a "one-time shock" that could eventually allow inflation to return to the Fed's long-term target of around 2% [5]. Group 3: Government Shutdown Impact - Cook mentioned that the current government shutdown could dampen economic activity in the current quarter and may have spillover effects on the private sector, but she views the overall impact as likely to be temporary [5]. Group 4: Legal Challenges - Cook's recent speech was her first public appearance since August, following a legal challenge against President Trump's attempt to remove her from the Fed [7]. - The Supreme Court has temporarily halted the president's request to remove Cook, with a hearing scheduled for January 2026, allowing her to remain in her position for the time being [7]. - Analysts believe that the outcome of this case could have significant implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve [8].

Core Points - The Trump administration is defending its tariff policy as the U.S. Supreme Court prepares for a crucial hearing regarding the president's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced he will personally attend the Supreme Court hearing to emphasize the importance of tariffs [1] - The Supreme Court will hear two cases that challenge the legality of the tariffs, which could have significant implications for Trump's economic agenda [2] Summary by Sections - **Legal Context** - The Supreme Court will consolidate the cases Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, focusing on whether the president has the authority to implement extensive tariff measures under the IEEPA and if this violates constitutional separation of powers [1][2] - **Implications of the Court's Decision** - A ruling against the government could potentially halve the current average effective tariff rate and require the government to refund billions of dollars in collected tariffs, which may destabilize existing trade agreements [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court will review President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy on November 5, with Trump stating he will not attend the debate [1][4] - The case will determine the fate of many of Trump's tariff policies, which are defended under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [4][5] - This is the first time a U.S. president has imposed tariffs under this law, making the Supreme Court's decision unprecedented [5] Group 1 - The main issue at stake is whether Trump can use emergency powers to justify global tariffs, representing an unprecedented expansion of executive power [4][5] - The Supreme Court currently has a conservative majority of 6 to 3, which has previously supported Trump in significant cases [7] - Regardless of the court's ruling, it is anticipated that Trump's tariffs will not easily disappear due to the established multi-path tariff system [6][8] Group 2 - The IEEPA has been the legal basis for Trump's tariffs, similar to the law used by Nixon in 1971 to impose a temporary 10% tariff [4][5] - The ongoing tariff policies have disrupted supply chains for U.S. manufacturers, as highlighted by the experience of OTC Industrial Technologies [8]

Core Insights - Iowa's agricultural sector, particularly soybean production, is under pressure due to unstable U.S. government tariff policies [1][2] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a 3% decrease in soybean planting area for 2025, with an estimated production of 117 million tons and exports dropping significantly to 49.6 million tons [1] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is crucial for stabilizing the agricultural market and improving farmers' incomes [2] Summary by Sections Agricultural Production - Iowa's soybean farmers are experiencing lower prices and insufficient market orders, leading to challenges in sales [1] - The USDA projects a significant decline in soybean exports to China, with only 5.93 million tons expected by August 2025, compared to 26.8 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Market Dynamics - Farmers are adjusting their planting strategies based on market conditions, but the unpredictability of tariff policies complicates their decisions [1] - Some farmers are opting to store their harvested soybeans in hopes of better prices, while others are forced to sell at lower prices due to cash flow issues [2] Trade Relations - The ongoing trade tensions and uncertainties are affecting the normalization of trade, which is critical for U.S. farmers [2] - Strengthening U.S.-China relations is seen as beneficial not only for the agricultural sector but also for the global economy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume rebound on Monday, with pro - cyclical sectors performing well. The four major stock index futures contracts had narrow - range fluctuations, and the basis of the main contracts was adjusted. Domestic policy is expected to support the PMI index, while overseas, there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. Different futures varieties have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and news[3][4][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures 3.1.1. Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, A - share major indices opened lower and closed higher with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. Pro - cyclical sectors such as forestry, oil and gas, and coal performed well, while industrial sectors such as precious metals, basic metals, and automobiles declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all had narrow - range fluctuations, with IF2512 and IH2512 down 0.04% and 0.00% respectively, IC2512 down 0.34%, and IM2512 up 0.01%. The basis of the four major contracts was adjusted[3][4]. - **News**: China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary suggested interest rate cuts if inflation drops. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to about 63%[4][5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Try to sell out - of - the - money put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread with put options to capture the subsequent upside space[5]. 3.1.2. Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed mostly lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.03%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were mixed[6]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, with a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were loose, and short - term interest rates are expected to remain low[6][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: In November, the bond market may enter a waiting stage. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities due to the rise of IRR[7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected. The US government shutdown has affected the economy, and the gold tax policy has led to price adjustments by some enterprises. The precious metals market continued to fluctuate in a narrow range[8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the precious metals market will enter an oscillation stage with falling volatility. The international gold price may operate in the range of 3995 - 4070 US dollars (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to conduct volatility operations or sell out - of - the - money gold put options at high prices. Silver prices will oscillate in the range of 47 - 50 US dollars (11000 - 11700 yuan)[9][11]. - **Funding**: The recent rise and fall of gold and silver prices have led to an outflow of ETF funds, and investors' short - term attitudes tend to be cautious[11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - Europe basic ports in the next 6 weeks varied among different shipping companies[12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% month - on - month; the US - West route index was 1267.15 points, up 14.43% month - on - month. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index was 1550.7 points, up 10% month - on - month[12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33.35 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7[12]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips[13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1. Copper - **Spot**: As of November 3, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86840 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement volume increased slightly as copper prices declined[13]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The US - China economic and trade consultation reached a consensus, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff case[14]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC was at a low level. In October, the SMM Chinese electrolytic copper output decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decrease by 0.4 million tons in November[14][15]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released when prices fall[15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased[16]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: After the positive expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, the short - term driving force is weak. The main contract should focus on the support level of 86000 - 86500 yuan/ton, and the short - term view is oscillation[17]. 3.4.2. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with a general loosening of prices due to a gradually loose supply pattern and stable demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry[17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, but the situation may improve[18]. - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants all increased in October, and the total registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts also increased[18]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The alumina price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite and other factors[19][20]. 3.4.3. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day[20]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and it is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots will continue to increase slightly in October[20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries entered the traditional peak season, but the weekly start - up rate of processing products declined[20]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social aluminum ingot inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased[21]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the subsequent inventory changes and LME de - stocking intensity[22]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 spot average price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day[23]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased, and it is expected that the start - up rate will remain flat in October[23]. - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission was not smooth, and high prices inhibited downstream procurement[23][24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories increased slightly, and the total registered volume of casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased[24]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the long AD01 and short AL01 arbitrage when the spread is above 550[25]. 3.4.5. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand[25]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore processing fee decreased, and the smelting profit was compressed, which limited the subsequent output increase. The supply of the zinc industry chain has changed from loose to tight[26]. - **Demand**: The demand did not exceed expectations, with domestic demand stronger than overseas. The inventory of the three primary processing industries showed a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in finished - product inventory[27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories and LME inventories both decreased[27]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton[28]. 3.4.6. Tin - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market trading was light[28]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month, and the tin ingot import volume returned to normal. The tin ingot export volume increased[29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder start - up rate increased slightly, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields was weak. LME inventories decreased, while social inventories decreased slightly[31]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The tin price is expected to oscillate widely. Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter[32]. 3.4.7. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel average price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day[32]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production was at a high level, and the monthly production was expected to continue to increase slightly[33]. - **Demand**: The demand from electroplating and stainless steel was general, while the demand from alloys was relatively good. The demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term[33]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories increased[33]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies[34][35]. 3.4.8. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased, and the basis decreased[35]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, while the nickel - iron price decreased, and the cost support of raw materials declined[35]. - **Supply**: In September and October, domestic stainless steel production increased[36]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased[36]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply[37][38]. 3.4.9. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market spot circulation was tight, but most downstream enterprises still chose to wait and see[38]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, but the weekly production decreased slightly recently, mainly due to the decline in lithium - spodumene - extracted lithium carbonate production[39]. - **Demand**: The demand was generally optimistic, with an expected increase in the production of lithium - iron and ternary materials. Pay attention to the marginal change in downstream orders after November[39]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased in all links last week[40]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton[41][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals 3.5.1. Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was weak, with the rebar basis strengthening and the hot - rolled coil basis weakening[42]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil[42]. - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron - element output increased by 5% year - on - year. In October, the increase narrowed. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the molten iron output decreased, but the five - major steel products output increased slightly[42]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation was still weak, while the export remained at a high level. The apparent demand of the five - major steel products increased, and the inventory pressure was relieved[42][43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five - major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will continue to decline month - on - month[43]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils. Consider holding the long - coking - coal and short - hot - rolled - coil arbitrage[44][45]. 3.5.2. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or decreased[46]. - **Futures**: As of November 3, the iron ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened[46]. - **Basis**: The best - delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different iron ore varieties was calculated[46]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the daily molten iron output, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased, and the steel - mill profitability declined[46]. - **Supply**: As of November 3, the global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly[47]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the port inventory increased, the daily port - clearing volume increased, and the steel - mill iron - ore inventory decreased[47]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The iron ore price is expected to be weak. Consider shorting the 2601 contract on rallies, with the reference range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage[48]. 3.5.3. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 3, the coking coal futures prices oscillated and declined, while the spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia were strong[49]. - **Supply**: As of October 30, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in Fenwei increased slightly, while that in Ganglian decreased slightly. The coal inventories in mines decreased[49][50][51]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the coke production of coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the molten iron output decreased[51]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with mines, ports, and washing plants de - stocking, and coking plants and steel mills increasing inventory[52]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The coking - coal price is expected to

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook anticipates persistent high inflation in the U.S. over the next year due to the impact of tariff policies on the economy [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting corporate pricing strategies, with some companies reducing inventory at lower prices before cost increases [3] - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as appropriate, but the balance between rising inflation risks and a weakening labor market is a concern [5] Group 1 - Cook indicated that tariffs are increasing costs for U.S. businesses, which may keep inflation elevated in the coming year [3] - She noted that interactions with business leaders suggest that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not fully materialized [3] - Cook is prepared to take strong action if the effects of tariffs are larger or more prolonged than expected [3] Group 2 - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to exert pressure on economic activity this quarter and may have spillover effects on the private sector [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates again reflects a belief that the downside risks to employment outweigh the upside risks to inflation [5] - Cook emphasized that future monetary policy is not on a predetermined path, leaving the December rate decision uncertain [5]