此外，美国目前正对一系列可能被视为威胁国家安全的商品展开调查，涵盖半导体、铜、药品以及木制 品等，预计将在2025年底至2026年初完成。如果美国最终决定对上述商品加征关税，将进一步加大对泰 国出口的压力，因为所涉及的商品在泰国出口总值中占有较大比重。 开泰研究中心认为，如果美国最终对泰国征收高于大多数国家的进口关税，将对泰国出口造成更深层次 的收缩压力、拖累外商直接投资，进而导致民间投资进一步萎缩。同时，泰国经济仍面临其他多项风险 因素，特别是入境游客数量可能低于预期。上述因素均对泰国经济增长构成下行压力，导致2025年泰国 经济增长率极有可能低于1.4%。(完) 中新社曼谷7月15日电 (记者李映民)泰国开泰研究中心15日发布的报告称，若美国对泰国产品征收36% 的关税，将导致下半年泰国出口总值大幅萎缩；综合关税等多项风险因素，2025年泰国经济增长率极有 可能低于1.4%。 报告说，7日，美国总统特朗普宣布新的关税税率，自8月1日起正式生效。如果在该日期前泰国仍未与 美国达成协议，美国将对泰国产品征收36%的关税。不过，此次宣布的税率仍有协商空间，最终取决于 美国所能接受的贸易与非贸易条件。 开泰研究中 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：印尼将不对美国出口商品加征新关税，而印尼在向美国出口商品时则需缴纳关 税。 ...

Group 1 - Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) experienced a decline of over 2.2% [1] - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones falling by 283 points, a decrease of 0.64%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.65% [1] - U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, stated that the Trump administration has not yet imposed tariffs on raw steel, having only recently applied tariffs on finished steel products [1] Group 2 - Indonesia will implement zero tariffs on U.S. goods, but the agreement includes tariffs on Indonesian products [1]

每经记者｜张韵 每经编辑｜杨夏 集运北美航线运价在连续下跌四周后，出现小幅反弹。7月11日，上海港出口至美西基本港市场运价为 2194美元/FEU（40英尺标准箱，即大柜），较上期上涨5.0%。而对比6月6日的峰值，美西航线海运费 仍跌去六成。 上海航运交易所表示，"关税战"近期再次成为市场关注的焦点，美国总统特朗普延长所谓"对等关税"的 暂缓期，将实施时间推迟至8月1日。此外，美国对多个国家设定了新的关税税率，并宣布将对铜征收高 达50%的行业关税。关税政策的持续反复，将继续对集运市场造成较大影响。 美线旺季运价整体反常下跌 市场趋势仍与中美贸易情况紧密相关。7月14日，海关总署副署长王令浚在新闻发布会上答记者问时表 示，上半年，我国对美国进出口总值2.08万亿元，同比下降9.3%。受所谓"对等关税"影响，中美贸易由 第一季度同比增长转为第二季度同比下降，降幅达到了20.8%。 随着日内瓦、伦敦经贸会谈取得积极进展，6月份进出口值有所回升，同比降幅也明显收窄。王令浚 称，据了解，目前中美双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。 从美国港口官方发布的数据来看，洛杉矶港在6月份创纪录的进口量较5月环比增长了32% ...

2025年7月，欧盟和美国敲定了一项临时贸易协议。表面上看，这消息很重磅，但细细琢磨后，却让人 有些摸不着头脑——因为欧盟获得的关税待遇竟然比英国还要差。这到底是怎么回事？虽然美欧之间的 贸易战看似暂时告一段落，但为何欧盟反倒背上了"惨败"的名声呢？ 首先，要理解双方的贸易关系。美欧是全球最大的双边贸易伙伴，每年货物和服务的流通额达数千亿美 元，彼此依存度极高。值得关注的是，波音与空客之间的补贴纠纷在2021年达成暂时休战协议，双方同 意暂停加征关税五年，虽然此次谈判未涉及该议题，但足见跨大西洋贸易的复杂性。 说到这场贸易谈判，美国方面的核心人物自然是唐纳德·特朗普。这位1946年出生于纽约的商人，起步 于房地产行业，后来通过真人秀节目《学徒》一跃成为家喻户晓的公众人物。2017年至2021年，他首次 担任美国总统，2025年再度归来，成为第47任总统。其"美国优先"的标签深入人心，尤其在贸易政策上 极为强硬，惯用关税作为谈判利器，面对任何对手都毫不客气。 回顾特朗普首次执政时的重大举措，2018年他以"国家安全"为由，对欧盟的钢铁和铝产品加征高额关 税，欧盟方面迅速反击，对美国的摩托车、威士忌等商品同样加征 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market shows significant price fluctuations in futures contracts, with some contracts rising sharply. The spot freight rate peak appears later than expected, and the 08 contract's basis is gradually being repaired. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and market booking conditions [2][4]. - The dry - bulk shipping market has seen an overall increase in freight rates. The large - ship market is expected to stop falling and recover, while the medium - ship market is expected to have a slightly stronger and volatile freight rate [16][22]. - In the oil tanker transportation market, the BDTI has declined recently. Considering the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter and weak demand, the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be monitored [26]. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Futures contracts: On July 15, EC2510 had a significant increase of 14.92%, with a large increase in trading volume. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and the basis is gradually being repaired [2]. - Spot freight rates: The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. MSK's WK31 Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price remained flat compared to the previous period [2][4]. - Tariffs: Trump proposed to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved within 50 days, and may impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US is also considering increasing tariffs on other countries, which may affect the shipping market [4][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short EC2510 at high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Industry News - Multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations and counter - measures, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip is ongoing, which may impact the shipping market [9][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rate index: The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high, with all ship - type freight rates increasing. The Capesize ship freight rate index rose by 12.5%, and the Panamax ship freight rate index reached its highest level since June 18 last year [16]. - Spot freight rates: On July 14, the freight rate of the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route for Capesize ships increased by 2.08% week - on - week. The weekly freight rates of some coal and grain routes also showed varying degrees of increase [17]. - Shipping data: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, while the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The grain shipping volume in July 2025 was lower than that of the same period last year [19]. - Import and export data: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal imports decreased. Soybean imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [20]. Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three years to one year starting in 2026. The iron ore inventory at major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased [23]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rates: On July 14, the BDTI reported 927, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%, and the BCTI reported 548, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Due to the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter, demand is relatively weak [26]. Industry News - Trump's new tariffs may exempt energy products. An explosion occurred at a production facility in an oil field in Canada, and there have been multiple engine shutdown incidents on Indian flights [27][28]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to container shipping, dry - bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation freight rates and indices, to visually display market trends [31][32][41]

智通财经APP获悉，美国6月核心通胀率连续第五个月低于预期，因为汽车价格下跌抵消了受关税影响的其他商品 价格上涨。剔除食品和能源价格后，6月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%，都较预期小了0.1个百分点。 数据显示，美国6月CPI 环比上升0.3%，同比上升2.7%，均与市场预期一致，分别较5月的0.1%和2.4%的涨幅有所 上升。 | 活动 | 今値 | 预测值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国未季调核心CPI年率(%) (同 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | | 比) (六月) | | | | | 美国核心CPI月率(%) (月度环比) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | (六月) | | | | | 美国未季调CPI年率(%) (同比) | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | | (六月) | | | | | 美国CPI月率(%) (月度环比) (六 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | 日） | | | | 数据公布后，股指期货维持涨势，美债收益率震荡，美元走低。 服务类价格(剔除能源)上涨0.3%。近年推 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在全球关税政策动荡引发的市场波动中，花旗(C.US)交易业务斩获五年来最亮眼的 第二季度业绩。得益于当季创纪录的交易量，该行交易营收实现强势增长。 根据财报显示，花旗固定收益交易业务收入激增20%至43亿美元，远超分析师预测的39亿美元。同期股 票交易业务营收达16亿美元也超出预期，主要受益于主经纪商业务余额飙升至历史高位。 自美国总统特朗普4月宣布对多国加征关税以来，全球市场持续震荡。这为花旗及其华尔街同行带来交 易业务的丰收季——客户交易活动激增推高各机构收入，不过并购业务的强劲复苏势头因此受阻。 在投行业务方面，由Vis Raghavan领衔的花旗并购团队同样交出超预期成绩单。投资银行手续费收入同 比增长13%，突破10亿美元大关。 经济学家正密切关注美国消费者如何应对关税政策与特朗普税改带来的不确定性影响。 尽管花旗此前预警本季度需比上季度多计提数亿美元贷款损失准备金，但实际信贷成本28.7亿美元(同 比上升16%)仍低于分析师预期的29.4亿美元。 本期财报还有其他亮点：花旗五大业务板块全部实现营收增长。其中服务、财富管理及美国个人银行业 务创下历史最佳二季度表现，推动集团总营收 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's investment banking business unexpectedly grew by 7% in Q2, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 14% decline, indicating a potential recovery in the M&A market after a period of caution due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The bank's adjusted earnings per share reached $4.96, exceeding the analyst forecast of $4.48, driven by strong performance in investment banking and trading [1] - CEO Jamie Dimon noted that market activity, which started slowly at the beginning of the year, has accelerated as market sentiment improves [2] Group 2 - The bank's debt underwriting revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, and M&A advisory fees rose by 8%, while stock underwriting revenue fell by 6%, which was better than the expected 29% decline [5] - Fixed income business revenue reached $5.69 billion, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $5.22 billion, and equity trading revenue hit a record $3.25 billion for two consecutive quarters [5] - The bank raised its full-year net interest income forecast from $94.5 billion to $95.5 billion, despite slightly missing expectations for the quarterly net interest income [6]

Group 1 - The Brazilian government, represented by Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro, criticized the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods as an "unfair measure" and plans to seek alternative markets in the Middle East and South Asia [1] - Brazilian President Lula indicated that the government could take various actions in response to the U.S. tariffs, including filing a complaint with the WTO and implementing reciprocal measures based on the recently passed economic equivalence law [1] - The Brazilian government has expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. tariffs and has summoned the U.S. chargé d'affaires for clarification regarding comments made about former President Bolsonaro [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian newspaper "O Estado de S. Paulo" suggested that imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian products would not alleviate the legal troubles faced by former President Bolsonaro and would be counterproductive to U.S. economic goals [3] - China's Foreign Ministry emphasized that tariffs should not be used as tools for coercion or interference in other countries' internal affairs, highlighting the principle of sovereign equality [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on nearly all remaining trade partners, indicating a broader strategy of increasing tariffs [5] - The U.S. has already sent tariff warning letters to countries like South Korea and Japan, which have been described as lacking negotiation sincerity and reducing dialogue opportunities [5] Group 4 - The German automotive industry is facing significant losses due to U.S. tariffs, with calls for a swift resolution to the trade conflict [7] - Economic experts warn that the imposition of high tariffs on EU goods could lead to substantial trade disruptions and an escalation of economic conflict between the U.S. and EU [7] - Recent data indicates that U.S. companies are beginning to feel the impact of tariffs, with prices for imported steel and aluminum rising nearly 30% from January to May, affecting various sectors reliant on these materials [7]