Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Internationally, there are concerns about economic recession risks and the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment. Domestically, policies are promoting the use of intelligent terminal consumer goods. Fundamentally, the processing fees for copper concentrates continue to decline, and the supply of raw materials may become tighter. The domestic supply may decrease due to smelter maintenance and import window closure. On the demand side, the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and positive macro - policies are expected to boost demand, but the impact of rising copper prices on downstream purchasing should not be ignored. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply, steadily increasing demand, and positive expectations. In the options market, the sentiment is relatively balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars converging below the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 79,890 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,695 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The spread between the main contract months was 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 196,044 lots, down 2,275 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 6,313 lots, up 905 lots. The LME copper inventory was 213,275 tons, up 1,900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cathode copper inventory was 235,296 tons, down 21,032 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant was 130,379 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 80,055 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot price was 80,115 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 66 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 165 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 71 dollars/ton, down 16.5 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons, down 34.88 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 24.14 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,380 yuan/metal ton, up 110 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 71,080 yuan/metal ton, up 110 yuan. The processing fees for crude copper in the south and north were 1,100 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively, up 250 yuan and 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 124.20 million tons, up 10.90 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 420,000 tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 57,590 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 227.28 million tons, up 13.23 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 436.20 billion yuan, down 5,646.38 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 10,719.74 billion yuan, down 89,560.48 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,277,402,800 pieces, up 521,990,500 pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.02%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.25%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 14.76%, up 0.0035 percentage points. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.11, up 0.0426 [2] Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented on April 2. The EU has a counter - measure plan. Fed officials are concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 points from February. The Ministry of Commerce promotes the work of consumer goods replacement. The added value of the above - scale electronic information manufacturing industry from January to February increased by 10.6% year - on - year. New energy vehicle companies released their March sales results, with some achieving significant growth [2]

超级央行周来袭，隔夜市场震荡！ 欧美股市普跌 截至最新收盘，美股、欧股普跌。 | 美股指数 它 | | | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 标普500 纳斯达克 | | 41953.32 | 17691.63 5662.89 | | -11.31 -0.03% | -59.16 --0.33% -12.40 -0.22% | | 欧非中东 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 法国CAC40 | 德国DAX | | 8701.99 | 8094.20 | 22999.15 | | -4.67 -0.05% | -77.27 -0.95% | -288.91 -1.24% | | 意大利MIB | 俄罗斯MOEX | 欧洲STOXX50 | | 39188.17 | 3223.14 | 5450.93 | | -524.49 -1.32% | -6.65 - -0.21% | -56.43 -1.02% | Wi n d美国科技七巨头指数微跌，内部走势出现分化。谷歌跌0 . 7 4%，苹果跌0 . 5 3%，亚马逊跌0 . 3 0%，微软跌0 . 2 5%，英伟达涨 ...

Investment Rating - The market index rating is bullish, expecting the CSI 300 index to rise by 20% or more in the next six months [8] Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations. The monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasury bonds was reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion, with a forecast of two rate cuts within the year. Economic growth expectations were significantly lowered, while inflation and unemployment rate forecasts were slightly increased. The Fed Chairman indicated increased economic uncertainty and a cautious, dovish stance [1][2][3] - The Fed's statement shifted from "risks are roughly balanced" to "economic outlook uncertainty has increased," reflecting concerns about rising unemployment due to layoffs and short-term inflation pressures from tariffs. However, the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust its policy stance, awaiting clearer market signals [1][2] - The plan to slow the balance sheet reduction supports liquidity, with the monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasury bonds being reduced, while maintaining the cap for agency bonds and MBS. This indicates a gradual shift towards a Treasury-dominated asset structure [1][2] - The anticipated path for rate cuts is two small steps of 25 basis points in the second half of the year, with the Fed's dot plot showing median federal funds rates of 3.9%, 3.4%, and 3.1% for 2025-2027, unchanged from December 2024 [1][2] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025-2027 were significantly lowered to 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was slightly raised to 4.4%. Core PCE inflation expectations for 2025 were increased to 2.8% [1][2] - Asset price volatility was notable, with a cautious and dovish tone from the FOMC meeting leading to a rise in U.S. stocks, a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a decline in the dollar index, and an increase in gold prices [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report does not reflect the impact of "Tama Reform," indicating deeper concerns about the labor market and economic stability [1][9]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - The February non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the previous value at 125,000. The federal government employment decreased by 10,000, while the private sector maintained a steady job growth of 140,000, consistent with the average over the past two years [3]. Economic Indicators - Nominal wage growth and total income in the household sector remain resilient, suggesting that consumer spending power is still intact, which reduces the risk of a sharp economic slowdown [4]. Immediate Concerns - The unemployment rate rose from 4.01% to 4.14%, and the labor force participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%. This divergence indicates a potential slowdown in labor demand, despite the overall labor market appearing stable [5]. - The proportion of multiple jobholders has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, indicating that lower-income individuals are seeking additional income sources due to high prices. The recovery of prime-age employment has stagnated or declined, suggesting a balance between labor supply and demand [6][7]. - The broadest unemployment rate (U-6) has significantly increased, reflecting a potential weakening in labor demand as more individuals are taking part-time jobs for economic reasons [8]. Government Employment Impact - The non-farm report does not capture the effects of the "Tama Reform," particularly the end of the first round of federal government downsizing, which allowed employees to apply for paid leave until September 30, 2025. Approximately 77,000 employees, or 3.8% of federal workers, opted for this program, which is below the initial target of 5%-10% [9][10]. - The ongoing second round of downsizing plans requires agencies to submit layoff plans by April 14, 2025, which may lead to significant changes in employment data as government layoffs are not easily offset by private sector job growth [10]. Political and Economic Outlook - The increasing divide in political perceptions regarding Trump may exert additional pressure on non-farm employment figures. The Federal Reserve is expected to focus on monetary tactics rather than a cohesive monetary policy moving forward [11].

以下文章来源于叶檀财经 ，作者半间云 但是，我们必须看到，现在的特朗普跟第一任任期不同，他显得更加坚定而疯狂，他的背后站着一支庞大 的科技大佬队伍，以及一支传统的财阀团队。 曾经被硅谷蔑视的人，现在却成为硅谷选中的那个。 一、市场陷入剧烈的特朗普波动， 可能持续阴跌 近期，全球市场陷入了特朗普波动，高高在上的美国股市有下跌趋势。 截至2025年3月7日的一周，道琼斯指数下跌了2.9%，是2025年以来表现最差的一周。2024年12月道琼斯指 数曾经到达52周最高点45073.63，而本周收盘价42801.72，较高点下跌了2272.91，下挫5.04%. 标普500指数较本轮高位下跌约6.7%，超越了去年12月的跌幅，纳斯达克指数较本轮高位下跌约9.4%，接近 10%回调区域的门槛。现在，大家密切关注着指数会不会下跌到10%的心理区域。 大型科技股未能幸免，支撑美股信念的科技七巨头Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉 短短三周内下跌超过12%，从2月1日到3月5日，特斯拉股价跌幅超过31%，市值蒸发超4000亿美元，英伟达 两个月内市值蒸发近1万亿美元。 叶檀财经 . 过去的财经女侠 ...

"资金削减和政策不确定性也可能通过政府合同商等渠道影响私营部门就业，影响可能在2月之后的月份显现，比如在专业服务等领域，" 报告指出。此外，关 税不确定性、高利率和美元走强也可能进一步削弱制造业就业，而制造业在相当长一段时间里已经疲软。 3月4日，花旗银行经济学家Veronica Clark和Andrew Hollenhorst在报告中表示，美国2月就业增长将放缓至13.5万个岗位，与1月的14.3万相比略有下降，但 仍属健康增长范畴。 花旗预计， 尽管失业率预计将保持在4.1%的相对稳定水平，但2月可能是"健康"就业数据持续的最后一个月，就业环境在春季和夏季可能进一步恶化，联邦政 府裁员和政府资金削减将成为额外的下行风险，失业率可能在今年年中攀升至约5%的水平。 失业率：短期稳定，预计将在年中达到约5%的水平 花旗经济学家预计2月份非农就业增长13.5万个岗位，与1月份的14.3万个岗位基本持平。花旗指出，尽管较2024年第四季度增速减缓，这一数据仍属健康范 畴，且可能因季节性调整因素而有一定上行空间。 据花旗，私营部门就业预计将增加12万个岗位，略高于1月份的11.1万个。政府部门就业可能受到影响，特别是 ...

地方政府专项债券发行额度也将扩大，2025年定为4.4万亿元，比上年增加5000亿元。这些资金 重点用于投资建设、土地收储和收购存量商品房、消化地方政府拖欠企业账款等。推动其转化为 中低收入人群可负担住房，以改善房地产市场状况。 在金融政策方面，中国政府计划采取"适度宽松"的货币政策以支持经济增长，表示出在适当时机 下调存款准备金率和政策利率的方针。 中国全国人民代表大会召开（3月5日，目良友树 摄） 中国经济增长目标连续三年维持在"5%左右"。在美国特朗普政府加征关税等不利因素加剧的背景 下，中国政府计划扩大财政支出，以支撑经济增长。将赤字率提升至4.0%左右，高于2024年设 定的3.0%…… 第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议于3月5日上午在北京的人民大会堂开幕。国务院总理李强 在政府工作报告中宣布，2025年实际经济增长率目标仍定为"5%左右"，连续三年维持这一水平。 在美国特朗普政府加征关税等不利因素加剧的背景下，中国政府计划扩大财政支出，以支撑经济 增长。为此，将发行5000亿元国债，向国有大型银行注入公共资金，以防范房地产市场长期低迷 带来的金融风险。 李强在报告中表示将实施积极的财政政策，扩大 ...