2026 年度投资策略会（资产配置专场）20251230 摘要 2025 年中国经济前三季度增长 5.2%，为全年 5%的目标奠定基础。预 计 2026 年财政政策前置，基建和制造业投资有望回稳，出口形势保持 乐观，服务业零售增速或达 6%。 预计 2026 年基建投资增速回升至 5%以上，制造业投资在技术和价格 因素推动下止跌回稳至 5%左右。房地产投资降幅预计收窄，但库存压 力仍存，去库存政策或加码。 2025 年出口强劲，预计 2026 年新兴市场工业化和贸易摩擦缓和将支 撑出口，增速约为 5%。工业增加值预计增长 5.5%，整体经济政策基调 积极，扩大内需。 预计 2026 年财政政策前置，新增专项债规模或增至 4.6 万亿元，广义 赤字率约为 9.5%。货币政策将保持流动性稳定，可能降准 50 个基点， 降息空间 10-20 个基点。 预计 2026 年 CPI 中枢水平在 0.5%以上，PPI 逐步回升至-0.5%左右。 综合来看，预计 2026 年通胀率将回到 0%左右，GDP 增速为 5%。 Q&A 2026 年中国宏观经济的政策基调和主要方向是什么？ 2026 年的政策基调将继续强调逆周期调 ...

在数字经济时代背景下，苏州银行敏锐把握技术变革趋势，在业务稳步发展的同时，持续强化系统能力 建设。该行聚焦流程优化和技术赋能，推动运营能力从"标准化"向"智能化"加速升级。通过深化数字化 转型，从产品设计、运营服务、经营管理到市场拓展等全领域、全流程实现了线上化、自动化和数字 化。 在技术创新应用方面，苏州银行积极探索前沿技术在托管业务中的应用场景。通过OCR、NLP等技术的 应用，该行实现托管运营集约化、降低人工操作占比，从根本上加强托管业务的风险防控能力。 在产品布局方面，苏州银行已形成多元化、全方位的托管服务体系。目前，该行托管产品超过1000只， 品类不断丰富，涵盖证券投资基金、银行理财产品、信托计划、资产管理产品等。值得一提的是，在公 募基金托管领域，苏州银行已托管17只公募基金，规模近300亿元。在同批次获批的托管银行中，该行 托管规模稳居第一。 完善的制度体系是托管业务稳健发展的基石。苏州银行以监管法规为基础，建立了完善的托管业务制 度，规章制度共计26项，全方位覆盖基金托管人的法定职责，为业务的合规开展筑起了坚实的制度防火 墙。 近日，在财经网2025年金融业年度评选中，苏州银行（002966 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering an adjustment phase in 2025, facing challenges such as the "ban on alcohol," rising inventory pressure, and declining profits, yet opportunities for growth are emerging through innovation and market expansion [2][4]. Policy Impact - A strict "ban on alcohol" policy was introduced, prohibiting public officials from consuming alcohol during workdays and even at home gatherings, with severe penalties for violations [2][4]. - This policy aims to curb corruption and address public health concerns related to alcohol consumption [4]. Digital Transformation - Leading liquor companies are advancing their digital transformation from isolated upgrades to comprehensive collaborative development, with initiatives like the first "lighthouse factory" by Luzhou Laojiao and 5G-connected factories by Shede [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released guidelines for digital transformation in the liquor industry, with companies actively contributing to industry mapping [5]. ESG Practices - ESG efforts among listed liquor companies have shifted from compliance to value creation, with companies like Zhenjiu Li Du setting ambitious carbon neutrality goals and achieving high water recycling rates [7]. - Companies are integrating ESG principles into performance assessments and utilizing blockchain for product traceability [7]. Market Dynamics - The liquor market is experiencing severe inventory issues, with major companies implementing supply control measures and channel reforms to reshape pricing structures [8][10]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, liquor exports reached $704 million, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing international market [8][10]. Young Consumer Trends - The younger generation is increasingly favoring low-alcohol and flavored beverages, with participation rates among Gen Z rising from 66% in 2023 to 73% in 2025 [12]. - Major companies are launching low-alcohol products to cater to this demographic, with Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao leading the way [12]. Personnel Changes - The liquor industry is undergoing significant personnel changes, with over 20 companies experiencing nearly 30 key position shifts, indicating a trend towards younger management [14][16]. - The new management is expected to focus on refined operations and innovation to navigate industry pressures [16]. Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, only two companies, Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, reported positive net profit growth, while the average profit of 20 liquor companies fell by 39.2% [18]. - The average inventory turnover days for these companies surged to 1456.29 days, marking a significant increase from the previous year [18]. Health-Oriented Products - The health-oriented liquor market is gaining traction, with sales of functional products like Jinjian's red label liquor increasing by 50% in the first half of the year [20]. - However, the market faces challenges such as product homogeneity and compliance risks, with a projected market size exceeding 58 billion yuan [22]. Price Fluctuations - Moutai's price fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle in December 2025, raising concerns about future price trends [22]. - Following a price drop, Moutai's wholesale prices rebounded due to supply control measures and increased market demand during the peak season [24].

Core Insights - The insurance industry in Shandong is accelerating its development in high-quality growth, risk protection, and public service, responding to economic transformation and social demand changes [1] - The "Influential Shandong 2025 Annual Insurance Industry Impact Assessment" event recognized 38 insurance companies for their contributions to the industry [1][2] - Digital transformation, smart risk control, and inclusive insurance are key trends driving innovation in the Shandong insurance sector [2] Industry Developments - The insurance sector is becoming a stabilizer, booster, and ballast for high-quality development, extending its services from personal pensions to family health and disaster response [1] - The total votes for the impact assessment exceeded 2.4 million, indicating strong public engagement and interest in the insurance industry [2] - The event highlighted the importance of integrating technology with insurance services, enhancing efficiency and social influence [2] Award Winners - The most influential insurance companies in Shandong for 2025 include major players such as People's Insurance Company of China, China Life, and Ping An Life [3][4] - The best claims service companies recognized include China Life Property Insurance and Sunshine Property Insurance [4] - The leading insurance products awarded include various life and health insurance plans, showcasing innovation in product offerings [5] Media Influence - Qilu Evening News, the organizer of the event, has a significant media presence in Shandong, with over 1.05 billion downloads of its app and a daily active user base exceeding 1.75 million [3] - The media outlet has adapted to new communication trends, focusing on mobile platforms and smart content production to enhance its reach and effectiveness [2]

Core Insights - Southeast Asia is experiencing a digital transformation and AI wave, leading to increased competition among cloud service providers [2][11] - The public cloud market in Southeast Asia is projected to grow from $6 billion to $30 billion by 2030, driven by digitalization in various sectors [3] - Local cloud providers are gaining traction due to their competitive pricing and tailored services compared to traditional Western giants [4][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major international cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google hold nearly 80% of the market share in Southeast Asia [5] - Local companies are increasingly migrating to public cloud solutions to reduce costs and improve efficiency, supported by government policies [3][10] - The demand for cloud services is expected to surge as organizations adopt AI and machine learning for data analysis and business forecasting [11] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Tencent Cloud has established a presence in Thailand and Indonesia, securing significant projects with local giants like CP AXTRA and GoTo [6][7] - The company differentiates itself by offering PaaS services that cater to local business needs, unlike traditional IaaS models [7][10] - The lack of technical talent in Thailand presents challenges for cloud service delivery, but also creates opportunities for providers to offer comprehensive support [8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The AI revolution is seen as a key driver for the next phase of growth in the cloud market in Thailand [11] - Local enterprises are increasingly recognizing the value of cloud solutions, leading to a shift from private to public cloud infrastructures [3][4] - The engineering talent shortage in Thailand may limit the scalability of cloud services, but the demand for creative solutions remains high [8][10]

当前，商业银行经营逻辑正经历深刻转变，既面临净息差收窄、风险来源多元的结构性挑战，也迎来数字化转型、服务模式升级的战略机遇。传统以规模或 短期利润为核心的评价模式，已难以精准刻画银行在复杂环境下的真实发展质量。 在此背景下，由普益标准主办、西南财经大学信托与理财研究所提供学术支持的"商业银行综合竞争力评价指标体系研讨会"于12月29日在成都成功举办。会 上，普益标准正式发布"商业银行综合竞争力评价指标体系"与《商业银行综合竞争力评价报告（2025）》。本次研讨会邀请了多所知名高校的专家学者，围 绕评价体系的构建逻辑、行业应用与发展前瞻进行了深度交流与思想碰撞。 关于如何有效评估金融科技投入效益、推动创新成果切实转化为业务价值这一焦点，与会专家分析，当前银行业对科技资源投入的规模空前，涵盖资金、系 统、人力等多类资源，而量化科技投入和产出需遵循二者的一致性关系，考虑科技投入对内部管理效能和外部业务效益的综合影响。此外，商业银行需要建 立一套连接投入、产出、成效的科技创新转化评价机制，从业务增长、客户体验、运营效率、风险控制等多个维度综合考量科技创新价值。更关键的是，要 打破技术与业务之间的壁垒，建立敏捷的创新转 ...

在优化供给方面，我们迭代梧桐范式生成式AI+HR SaaS矩阵，覆盖智能招聘、员工管理、薪酬社保一 体化及海外人才管理模块，适配从初创到集团、国内到海外的不同规模需求，降低数字化转型门槛。增 量业务包括全球EOR、Payroll、海外招聘及派遣服务，为外贸与出海企业提供合规高效用工服务；存量 业务通过RPA流程自动化、数据中台优化传统事务性服务流程，提高交付效率，释放人力资源用于战略 规划和人才培养。供需匹配机制也将升级，搭建智能化人力资源供应链平台，实现岗位与人才动态匹配 和预警。 在发展新质生产力方面，我们深化"金柚GEO AI+全球人才管理平台"建设，融合大模型与跨国管理场 景，支撑企业全球化布局，同时研发AI数字员工、RPA流程工具，替代重复性工作，提升组织效能。公 司联合高校、产业园区及人才机构，为智能制造、新能源、生物医药等领域提供定制化技能培训和认 证，培养复合型数字化人才；推出"今元橙长"领导力培训服务，提升管理层数字化转型能力。区域落地 上，长三角、珠三角侧重高端人才与海外合规方案，中西部及县域聚焦用工保障、技能培训及基础人事 服务。 新京报贝壳财经：2026年，今元集团在业绩增长、产品创新 ...

Core Insights - Dell's financial report reveals that over 80% of its PC revenue in FY2024 comes from commercial machines, indicating that flashy gaming laptops are a minority in its product lineup [2] - In the current economic climate, consumer spending is tight, while the commercial sector is providing a rare source of stability for tech giants [3] - Companies prioritize stability and sustainability over flashy features, leading IT giants like Dell and HP to focus on the lucrative commercial business [4] Market Dynamics - The commercial sector has high entry barriers, making it difficult for new players to enter, which results in a natural oligopoly [7] - Customer stickiness is strong in the commercial business, as selling hardware is just the beginning; long-term maintenance, software licensing, and asset management follow [8] - The lock-in effect is significant, as once companies choose their IT systems, switching costs increase, leading to stable and sustainable cash flows [9] Evaluation Criteria - In the commercial market, safety and compliance take precedence over design and cutting-edge technology, with total cost of ownership (TCO) and predictability being key concerns [11] - The procurement decision-making process in commercial settings often prioritizes financial and operational metrics over user experience [16] - Trust is a critical factor in the commercial sector, and establishing a reliable relationship can lead to long-term growth [12] Huawei's Strategy - Huawei's "Huawei Qingyun" has made significant strides in the commercial sector, serving over 100,000 industry clients and implementing over 90 scenario-based solutions [14] - The company aims to balance cost, efficiency, and user experience by leveraging its consumer product capabilities in commercial settings [16][17] - Huawei's approach includes integrating AI and collaborative capabilities into commercial products, enhancing user experience while meeting compliance requirements [19] Brand Positioning - Huawei Qingyun has developed a unified brand expression, which is crucial for accelerating business growth in a market dominated by established players [21] - The company is positioned as a pioneer in the HarmonyOS commercial sector, providing not just hardware but also a sustainable value network through ecosystem collaboration [22] - The HarmonyOS enterprise version aims to provide a secure and controllable technology foundation for businesses, facilitating digital transformation across various industries [24] Future Outlook - The competition in the commercial sector will shift from merely providing durable or cheaper products to balancing organizational management security with employee efficiency [27] - Companies that can build resilient digital foundations for various industries will secure their place in the next decade of digitalization [27]

Core Insights - In 2025, the A-share consumer sector is undergoing unprecedented changes, shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" amid external uncertainties like global economic fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The focus of competition is moving from price wars to service quality and operational efficiency, prompting companies to adopt refined operational strategies [2][4] Policy Initiatives - Multiple policies have been introduced to regulate market order, boost consumer confidence, and promote high-quality development in the consumer sector [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a plan for a large-scale equipment update and a consumption upgrade policy for 2026, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan for consumer goods [2][3] - A joint notification from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and financial regulators aims to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to stimulate consumption [2][3] Industry Challenges - Many companies are facing the challenge of "increasing revenue without increasing profit," as consumer demands for product quality, service experience, and transparency rise [2][3] - The government is addressing industry pain points through regulatory measures and encouraging innovation to ensure food safety, fair pricing, and consumer rights protection [3] Future Outlook - Analysts from various brokerages express optimism about investment opportunities in the consumer sector for 2026, with a focus on different sub-sectors [5][6] - The domestic demand policy is expected to strengthen, making the consumer sector a key area for investment alongside technology themes [6][7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-dividend companies and sectors benefiting from wealth effects and supply-side optimization [8][9]

Core Insights - In the VUCA era, talent has become a core variable for companies to break competitive barriers and achieve sustainable development [1] - Many companies face multiple challenges in human resource management, necessitating professional consulting to build systematic solutions [1] Group 1: Challenges in Human Resource Management - Five core challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in human resource management include strategic disconnection, organizational rigidity, performance bottlenecks, talent gaps, and digital lag [2][3][4] - Strategic disconnection manifests as a mismatch between business goals and talent supply, leading to long-term vacancies in key positions and misalignment of talent capabilities with job requirements [2] - Organizational rigidity is characterized by high departmental barriers and low cross-departmental collaboration efficiency, hindering project advancement [3] - Performance bottlenecks arise from a disconnect between performance and compensation systems, with some companies still using uniform salary distribution, resulting in a 15% lower average output per employee compared to industry standards [3] - Talent gaps are evident with high turnover rates in core positions, exceeding 30% in some industries, and a lengthy talent cultivation cycle of 2-3 years [3] - Digital lag is highlighted by reliance on manual processes for recruitment, attendance, and payroll, leading to inefficiencies and lack of data-driven decision-making [4] Group 2: Best Consulting Solutions by Best Human Resource Management Consulting - Best Human Resource Management Consulting offers an integrated solution comprising four core modules to address the aforementioned challenges [5] - Strategic human resource planning focuses on aligning business and talent supply chains using the Business Leading Model (BLM) [5] - Organizational effectiveness enhancement aims to break down barriers and activate internal organizational dynamics through a three-dimensional diagnostic tool [6] - Full-module HR system upgrades cover the entire talent lifecycle, ensuring a standardized and actionable HR framework [8][9] - Leadership and culture development focuses on cultivating core teams and shaping a high-recognition culture through leadership accelerators and cultural DNA embedding [10] Group 3: Core Advantages of Best Human Resource Management Consulting - The company has over 20 years of industry experience and has served more than 5,000 enterprises, accumulating rich local service experience and case studies [11] - The adaptability of methodologies is strong, integrating global benchmark methodologies with local enterprise scenarios to avoid ineffective solutions [11] - The delivery model is a closed loop, combining consulting, systems, and operations to ensure sustainable results [11] - The company covers a wide range of industries, including ICT, high-tech, smart manufacturing, new energy, chemicals, retail, and healthcare, allowing for quick matching of different industry pain points [11] - The company has been recognized as one of the top 50 management consulting firms in China for thirteen consecutive years and has ranked among the top ten management consulting firms for three years [11] Group 4: Benchmark Cases of Best Human Resource Management Consulting - Case 1: Anta Group redefined its talent strategy to support its goal of reaching 100 billion, overcoming challenges in cross-national talent integration and cultural fragmentation [12][20] - Case 2: Shenzhen JianKao Institute transitioned from a public institution to a listed company, addressing issues of rigid management and ineffective incentives [21][27] - Case 3: Zhengte Co., Ltd. transformed from manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing, clarifying strategic direction and enhancing organizational capabilities [31][35]