智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，A股非金融ROE环比基本持平，结合一季度盈利增长明显反弹和 上述积极变化，预计本轮盈利下行周期的增速低点已过，但二季度以后需要重视关税政策对企业基本面 的影响。中金判断，关税对上市公司销售的冲击程度好于实体经济，但需要关注降价和供需失衡导致的 利润率下降。配置上，建议从景气回升和关税低影响两个维度寻找机会。 中金主要观点如下： 盈利增长方面，2024年全A/金融/非金融归母净利润同比分别为-3.0%/+9.0%/-14.2%，四季度大量减值损 失导致非金融盈利加速探底，全年房地产和光伏行业是主要拖累项；1Q25全A/金融/非金融归母净利润 同比为+3.5%/+2.9%+4.2%，下游行业改善明显。行业层面，有色金属、部分出口链以及TMT板块亮点 突出，高景气行业稀缺的格局发生积极变化。 盈利能力来看，A股非金融ROE环比基本持平，从2021年2季度以来，本轮ROE下行周期已持续15个季 度，拆分来看，净利润率边际企稳反弹，但资产周转率仍明显下行拖累。结构上，上游行业ROE仍在快 速下滑，下游行业若剔除地产后处于改善趋势中。其中ROE连续两个季度改善的行业包括电子、家电、 非 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from operations for Q1 was $736 million, a slight increase of $6 million or 1% from the previous quarter [42] - Total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $206.3 million, down from $220.5 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a decline of $14 million [46] - U.S. drilling revenue decreased by $11 million or 4.5% sequentially to $231 million [43] - Average daily rig margins in the Lower 48 came in just under $14,300, down $660 or 4% from the fourth quarter [48] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international drilling segment generated revenue of $382 million, an increase of $10.3 million or 3% from the prior quarter [45] - Drilling Solutions revenue increased by $17.2 million or 22.6% to $93.2 million, benefiting from the Parker acquisition [45] - Rig Technologies segment revenue declined by $12 million sequentially to $44.2 million, primarily due to lower capital equipment deliveries [46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Lower 48 market average quarterly rig count remained stable, with Nabors' rig count averaging 61, a decrease of five rigs from the fourth quarter [43] - The international rig count increased slightly from 84.8 to 85 rigs during the quarter, driven by the Parker acquisition [45] - The Baker Hughes weekly Lower 48 rig count remained stable, but there was a noted shift with smaller operators adding rigs while larger ones reduced activity [14][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving $40 million in cost synergies from the Parker acquisition by 2025 [6][33] - There is a strategic emphasis on international markets, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, where new builds are expected to contribute significantly to earnings [20][52] - The company aims to reduce debt and improve cash flow, with a target of generating free cash in 2025 despite cash consumption [29][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted challenges in the oil market due to OPEC+ output adjustments and high U.S. shale production, but expressed optimism about natural gas activity recovery [7][8] - The company expects a slight increase in rig count in the second quarter, with deployments in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait [41] - Management remains cautious about the impact of tariffs on operations but believes they can mitigate potential costs through alternative sourcing [74][112] Other Important Information - The company suspended operations in Russia due to U.S. sanctions and does not expect to resume activities there [11][40] - The Parker Wellbore acquisition is expected to contribute approximately $150 million of EBITDA for the full year of 2025 [59] - The company plans to refinance Parker's debt to achieve interest savings [58] Q&A Session Summary Question: Has any debt started accruing in the SANAD joint venture? - No, there are no plans to accrue debt in SANAD for now [67] Question: Is Saudi Aramco finished with rig releases? - There have been suspensions and additions, but the situation remains fluid with contingency plans in place [68][70] Question: Which business segment is most affected by tariffs? - The impact is more on spares and pumps rather than drill pipe, with potential costs mitigated through alternative vendors [74] Question: How does the company view the potential for an IPO of SANAD? - The company sees it as a viable option to realize value, especially given the attractive valuations in the Middle East [80] Question: What is the expected corporate run rate for the second quarter with Parker's full contribution? - The Parker contribution is expected to be in the mid-40s for the second quarter [92] Question: What is the timing from award to delivery for new builds? - It takes about one year from award to delivery for new builds [103]

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 3.0% for the entire market, 9.0% for the financial sector, and 14.2% for the non-financial sector, primarily due to significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter of 2024, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [1][2][3] Profit Growth - In 2024, the A-share market's net profit is forecasted to decline by 3.0%, with the financial sector showing a growth of 9.0% and the non-financial sector declining by 14.2%. The non-financial sector's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1%, with a significant drop in profit margins compared to 2023 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a rebound in net profit for the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% for the entire market, 2.9% for the financial sector, and 4.2% for the non-financial sector, indicating a recovery in downstream industries [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares has remained stable, marking 15 consecutive quarters of decline since Q2 2021. The marginal improvement in net profit margins is offset by a significant decline in asset turnover rates [1][15] - Industries such as electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, and agriculture have shown consecutive improvements in ROE over the past two quarters [15][23] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Non-financial capital expenditure has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, but new economy sectors are seeing a rebound in capital expenditure growth. The total assets of non-financial enterprises have stabilized, with a notable increase in prepayments [2][16] - The free cash flow to equity ratio for non-financial companies has reached a historical high, supporting an increase in dividend payout ratios to 45% in 2024, with the dividend yield for the CSI 300 rising to 3.2% [2][18] Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted strong performance in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, certain export chains, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with significant year-on-year profit growth in these areas [3][4] - The agricultural sector has shown remarkable recovery, with a profit growth of 2541.6% due to low base effects, while non-bank financials have benefited from improved capital market conditions, achieving a profit growth of 48.7% [2][4] Market Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that the low point of the profit downturn cycle has been surpassed, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariff policies on corporate fundamentals in the second quarter of 2025 [2][38] - The market is advised to seek opportunities in sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impacts, particularly in AI-related industries and companies with strong cash flows that are less exposed to external demand [39][40]

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·环保 绿色动力（601330） 2025 一季报点评：归母同增 33%超预期，提 质增效成果显著 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,956 | 3,399 | 3,593 | 3,765 | 3,910 | | 同比（%） | (13.39) | (14.08) | 5.71 | 4.79 | 3.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 629.28 | 585.08 | 649.61 | 717.62 | 760.30 | | 同比（%） | (15.51) | (7.02) | 11.03 | 10.47 | 5.95 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.55 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.65 | 17.91 | 16.13 | 14.60 | 13.78 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic operations and is expanding its international business opportunities [1] - The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience in operations with a revenue increase of 6.9% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 16.87% [2] - The company is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the short to medium term, with long-term value potential [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 698.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.34 billion, up 16.87% [2] - The company's net profit margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 3.20%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points [3] - The express logistics revenue grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international revenue increased by 9.9% [4] - The company reported a significant increase in free cash flow, up 55.6% year-on-year, indicating improved cash management and operational efficiency [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 119.11 billion, 142.57 billion, and 168.45 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.7%, and 18.2% [6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 18.1, 15.1, and 12.8 [6] Key Financial Indicators - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 258,409 million, with a projected growth rate of 10.1% for 2024 and 10.9% for 2025 [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.8% by 2027 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2027 [7]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF is set to be listed on May 7, 2025, with a total of 425 million shares [1] - As of April 25, 2025, the fund's asset allocation consists entirely of bank deposits and settlement reserves, with no stock investments during the initial building period [1] - In April, a total of 35 stock ETFs have announced their listings, with an average allocation of only 14.95% [1] Group 2 - The average fundraising for newly announced ETFs in April is 597 million shares, with leading funds including Ping An CSI A500 ETF and Southern CSI All Share Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - Institutional investors hold an average of 19.28% of the shares in these ETFs, with the highest proportions in funds like Penghua STAR 50 ETF and China International CSI 300 ETF [2] - The table provided lists various ETFs, their establishment dates, fundraising sizes, and stock allocation percentages, highlighting the low stock allocation for several funds [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic operations and is expanding its international business opportunities [1] - The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience in operations with a revenue increase of 6.9% year-on-year, and a net profit growth of 16.87% [2][3] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and quality improvement, leading to a slight increase in net profit margins [3] - The logistics revenue increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international revenue grew by 9.9% [4] - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, resulting in a significant increase in free cash flow by 55.6% [5] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 119.11 billion, 142.57 billion, and 168.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 698.50 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 22.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.87% [2] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 40.62 billion, down 14.21% year-on-year [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 315.54 billion, with a growth rate of 10.9% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 11.91 billion, with a growth rate of 17.1% [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 14.0% by 2025 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the confidence in the Chinese capital market's high-quality development, as evidenced by the self-purchase announcement from Fangzheng Fubang Fund, which invested 5 million yuan in its own fund [1] - The Fangzheng Fubang CSI All Share Free Cash Flow ETF is one of the first 12 approved ETFs focusing on free cash flow, which completed its fundraising on April 25 [1] - The importance of free cash flow as a key indicator of a company's true profitability and financial health is emphasized, especially in the context of increasing international market pressures and the need for companies to adapt to a high-quality growth model [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently viewed as highly attractive for investment, with the CSI 300 index's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio at 11.57, below the 10-year average of 11.86 [3] - The CSI 300 dividend yield has reached 3.58%, marking a historical high over the past decade, indicating a "high cost-performance" characteristic [3] - Institutional investors are showing confidence in the long-term value of the A-share market, as reflected in Fangzheng Fubang Fund's self-purchase announcement, which sends a strong bullish signal [3]

Group 1 - A total of 6 new funds were launched in just 3 trading days from April 28 to April 30, with 3 being passive index funds [2] - The largest fund launched last week was a medium to long-term pure bond fund with a first fundraising scale of nearly 6 billion yuan [5] - Public REITs have gained significant attention, with the Hua Tai Suzhou Heng Tai Rental Housing REIT seeing a record high in offline subscription [7] Group 2 - The new funds include the Dongfanghong Yufeng Return A, Zhonghai Technology Innovation A, and Huabao Zhongzheng Information Technology Application Innovation Industry (300832) Link A, all launched on April 28 [2] - The Dongfanghong Yufeng Return A is a mixed bond secondary fund managed by Ji Wenjing, who has nearly 18 years of experience in the securities industry [2][3] - The Zhonghai Technology Innovation fund focuses on the "technology innovation" sector, particularly in artificial intelligence and new generation information technology [3] Group 3 - The Huabao Zhongzheng Information Technology Application Innovation Industry Link A targets the Xinchuang ETF, covering key areas of the Xinchuang industry chain [3] - The Xinchuang Index has shown a cumulative return of 41.85% since its base date, with an annualized return of 5.10% as of March 31 [3] - The BlackRock Anze 60-Day Holding A fund is set to be issued on April 30, managed by Liu Xin, the Chief Fixed Income Investment Officer at BlackRock [4] Group 4 - The previous week saw 28 new funds established, with the largest being the Pu Yin An Sheng Pu Hang 3-Month Fixed Open Fund, which raised 5.999 billion yuan [5][8] - The second largest was the mixed bond primary fund Zhongou Stable Navigation 90-Day Holding A, which raised over 3 billion yuan [6] - The market is increasingly focused on high dividend and stable public REITs amid an "asset shortage" [7]