Core Viewpoint - The digital asset market is showing clear signs of recovery as of December, driven by a significant shift in liquidity conditions and easing macro expectations [1][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Environment - The overall monetary environment has shown marginal improvement, with funding conditions continuously recovering since the low point in November, aligning with the expected rebound in December [2][6]. - The strong correlation between digital asset prices and liquidity indicates that improvements in liquidity often precede price performance, as evidenced by recent increases in on-chain activity, stablecoin supply, and trading depth [2][6]. - A weakening US dollar index has enhanced the attractiveness of non-dollar-denominated assets, benefiting digital assets from cross-asset capital redistribution [2][6]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Significant changes in institutional policies are providing important momentum for the recovery of digital assets, with firms like Vanguard relaxing restrictions on crypto ETFs, allowing for greater market participation [3][7]. - Major financial institutions in the US are now permitting wealth management advisors to allocate up to 4% of client portfolios to digital assets, reopening channels for previously restricted large-scale long-term capital [3][7]. - The shift from resistance to openness in institutional policies is more structurally significant than short-term trading flows, representing a sustainable increase in capital over the coming years [3][7]. Group 3: Market Trends - The market performance in December is likely driven by multiple variables rather than a single event, indicating a trend of recovery influenced by macro environment, liquidity trends, and institutional behavior [4][8]. - Despite potential short-term volatility due to policy implementation timing and changes in on-chain activity, the overall direction is transitioning towards a healthier and more resilient state [4][8]. - Digital assets are expected to gain incremental attention in the coming weeks due to their higher price elasticity and faster capital response speed, as risk assets typically exhibit relative advantages during this phase [4][8].

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $33,464 billion by the end of November 2025, marking a rise of $3 billion or 0.09% from the end of October [1] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 7.412 million ounces at the end of November, with an increase of 30,000 ounces [1] - Analysts attribute the rise in reserves to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a slight depreciation of the US dollar, which positively impacted the valuation of non-dollar assets in China's reserves [1][2] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index [2] - The reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, the highest level since December 2015, with a significant increase of $144 billion compared to the end of the previous year [2] - Factors contributing to this stability include a significant depreciation of the dollar, a decline in US Treasury yields, and rising global stock indices [2] Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces in November, continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation [4] - The price of gold rose from $4,000 per ounce at the end of October to above $4,200 in November, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a depreciating dollar [4] - The current gold reserve proportion in China's international reserves is 8.0%, significantly below the global average of around 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation of gold [5] Economic Context - The US economic data released in November showed weakness, contributing to an increased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut to over 80% [3] - The reduction of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US by 10% is expected to stabilize China's export scale to the US [3] - China's capital market is being progressively opened to foreign investors, enhancing the attractiveness for overseas investments [3]

期货研究报告 有色金属 电话：0571-87006873 核心观点 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 姓名：龙奥明 沪铜维持强势 沪铜 今日沪铜持续增仓上行，主力期价拉升至 9.3 万关口，持仓量接 近 66 万张。宏观层面，美元指数维持弱势，利好有色。产业层面， 国内随着铜价走强，现货升水收窄，下游观望情绪升温，周一电解 铜社库小幅上升；海外伦铜注销仓单比例快速上升，现货紧缺预期 上升。技术层面，铜价增仓突破 9 万关口，短期上行动能较强。 沪铝 今日沪铝偏强震荡，持仓量变化不大，日内主力期价回踩 2.2 万 关口，午后持续回 ...

2025年12月以来，美元指数呈现显著震荡下行特征，核心驱动逻辑围绕美联储12月降息预期升温、美联 储主席人选更迭预期及非美货币走势联动效应展开。美元指数报98.72，较11月下旬高点已累计回落 1.2%；其中11月25日美元指数跌破100整数关口后持续承压，为非美货币创造了显著升值空间。当前市 场研究聚焦于12月9日至10日美联储年内收官议息会议，该会议决策将成为美元指数下一阶段走势的关 键催化变量。 非美货币走势联动及全球经济环境构成影响美元指数的重要外围因素。近期美元指数的承压下行，一定 程度上源于非美货币的相对走强衬托——人民币对美元汇率表现强劲，12月3日离岸人民币兑美元盘中 升破7.06，创逾一年来新高，背后得益于中国资产吸引力提升带来的资本流入支撑。与此同时，欧洲、 日本等主要经济体虽面临各自增长困境，但市场对其央行政策调整的预期已逐步消化，欧元、日元的贬 值态势有所放缓，削弱了美元指数的相对强势基础。此外，全球金融市场风险情绪演变通过影响美元避 险资产属性，间接作用于指数走势，而特朗普政府关税政策的潜在不确定性，仍为美元指数波动预留了 额外空间。 学界及机构对美元指数后续走势的研判存在显著分歧 ...

Group 1 - The core focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with the market showing cautious sentiment reflected in the recent fluctuations of the US dollar index [1] - The US dollar index closed at 98.98 on December 5, experiencing a slight decline of 0.07% on that day and a cumulative drop of 0.5% over the past week, marking the second consecutive week of decline [1] - There is significant divergence in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with a prevailing outlook favoring continued easing; the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during the December 9-10 meeting is at 87.2% according to the CME FedWatch tool [1] Group 2 - Institutions generally believe the US dollar is overvalued, with Goldman Sachs estimating it to be overvalued by approximately 20%, while Huatai Securities estimates a 15-20% overvaluation [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the actual effective exchange rate of the US dollar is overvalued by 10%, influenced by factors such as tariff policies and capital flow reversals [2] - The upcoming global central bank policy announcements are expected to clarify the divergence in monetary policies, with the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike potentially exerting further pressure on the US dollar [2]

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% and the highest level since December 2015 [1][2] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the combined effects of exchange rate fluctuations and asset price changes, with the dollar index experiencing a slight decline of 0.29% in November [2][3] - The reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, with a significant increase of $144 billion compared to the end of the previous year, driven by the depreciation of the dollar and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2][3] Group 2: Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves increased to 7.412 million ounces by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases, although the increment has been at a low level for the past nine months [1][4] - The price of gold rose from $4,000 per ounce at the end of October to $4,200 per ounce in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][5] - The central bank's continued small-scale purchases of gold signal an intention to optimize international reserves, with a recommendation to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The stability of foreign exchange reserves is expected to continue, supported by a solid economic foundation and favorable conditions in China's economy, including a recent reduction in tariffs on exports to the U.S. [3] - The ongoing adjustments in capital market access for foreign investors are anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of China's market [3] - The long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain unchanged, with expectations of continued upward pressure on gold due to geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the dollar [4][5]

Group 1 - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves for the fourth consecutive month is attributed to the combined effects of asset price changes and exchange rate fluctuations, with the US dollar index falling by 0.3% to 99 in November [2] - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [2] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has risen to over 80%, influenced by weak economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials, leading to mixed performance in global asset prices [2] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and the depreciation of the US dollar have prompted central banks and ETF funds to reduce their holdings in US Treasuries while increasing their investments in gold [3] - The People's Bank of China's strategy to increase gold reserves aligns with the goals of optimizing international reserve structures and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [3]

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，受12月美联储降息预期升温、日本央行短期内加息概率上升等因素 带动，11月美元指数小幅下跌。这会带动中国外汇储备中非美元资产升值，小幅推高外汇储备规模。与 此同时，"美联储降息预期升温还带动当月美债收益率下行，美债价格走高，也会增加中国外汇储备月 末估值。"王青说。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析指出，中国稳步推进资本市场自主开放，对配置型外资准入实行绿 色通道等举措，有利于提升对境外投资者的吸引力，"中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，是 外汇储备规模保持基本稳定的根本支撑"。(完) 中新社北京12月7日电 (陶思阅)中国国家外汇管理局(下称"国家外汇局")7日发布统计数据显示，截至 2025年11月末，中国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 国家外汇局表示，11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球 金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。中国经济 保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 ...

每经记者：张寿林 每经编辑：魏官红 12月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10 月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 同期人民银行官网公布的数据显示，11月末黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析称，受12月美联储降息预期升温、日本央行短期内加息概率上升等带 动，11月美元指数小幅下跌0.29%。这会带动我国外汇储备中非美元资产升值，小幅推高外汇储备规 模。 中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬指出，资产价格方面，美元标价的已对冲全球债券指数上 涨0.2%。对AI（人工智能）盈利前景的担忧导致美股剧烈分化，11月末标普500指数环比小幅上涨 0.1%。 美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现 国家外汇管理局官网显示，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元 指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模 上升。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 王青指出，11月末外储规模基本稳定，主要是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest foreign exchange reserve data indicates that China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion at the end of November 2025, marking a $3 billion increase from the end of October, with a growth rate of 0.09% [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, with a significant increase of $144 billion compared to the end of the previous year [4][5]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar, lower US Treasury yields, and rising global stock indices [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may continue to implement foreign exchange net selling to maintain reserves at an appropriate level, given the current high level of reserves [5][6]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves increased to 7,412 million ounces (approximately 2305.39 tons) at the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increase, although the increment has been low for nine months [1][6]. - The PBOC's continued accumulation of gold is seen as a response to the changing global political and economic landscape, with expectations of sustained high international gold prices [6][7]. - The recent rise in gold prices, from $4,000 per ounce at the end of October to above $4,200 per ounce, is driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors [7].