比特币在美国股市隔夜收高后小幅上涨，因投资者基本上未理会特朗普政府对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔(Jerome Powell)展开刑事调查所引发的对美联储独立性的担忧。几位共和党议员反对该调查，参议员 汤姆·蒂利斯誓言要阻止所有美联储提名。现在的焦点转向美国通胀数据，以寻找美联储下一次降息时 机的线索。根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，比特币上涨0.9%，至91,830美元。然而，在缺乏任何可推 动该加密货币大幅走高的明确利好催化剂的情况下，其继续在相对窄幅的区间内交投。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Outlook - Citigroup has significantly raised its short-term outlook for precious metals due to increased geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve. The gold price target for the next 0-3 months has been increased from $4,200 to $5,000 per ounce, while the silver target has been raised from $62 to $100 per ounce [1][6] - The investment momentum remains strong, and several favorable factors are expected to persist in the first quarter. Analysts noted that the ongoing physical shortages of silver and platinum group metals may worsen in the short term due to potential delays in the U.S. Section 232 tariff decisions, which could further drive up prices [1][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs has postponed its forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now expecting a 25 basis point cut in June and September 2026, instead of March and June 2026 as previously anticipated. This adjustment follows weak non-farm employment data, indicating a gradually weakening labor market, while GDP growth remains stronger than expected [2][7] - The chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs stated that the Fed is likely to wait until mid-year to cut rates, anticipating inflation to return to target levels and the labor market to stabilize. The firm has reduced its probability of a recession within the next 12 months from 30% to 20% [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Movements - The gold price surged to a historical high, breaking the $4,600 mark, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence. The current trading price is around $4,600, with resistance at $4,650 and support at $4,550 [3][8] - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, supported by expectations of the Fed maintaining its current stance and a cooling of expectations for rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. The current trading price is around 158.80, with resistance at 159.50 and support at 158.00 [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair saw a slight decline, trading around 1.3870, influenced by profit-taking and a weakening dollar index. The current price is under pressure from rising oil prices, with resistance at 1.3950 and support at 1.3800 [5][10]

美国司法部对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发起刑事调查一事持续发酵，调查聚焦其对美联储总部翻新工 程的处理及相关国会证词。 此举被鲍威尔直指为因降息节奏未达总统特朗普预期而发起的恐吓与报复。周一，该事件引发美国国会 议员、华尔街投资机构及美联储和财政部前官员的广泛关注与强烈反应，美联储独立性问题成为各方争 议核心。 美国国会议员：共和党普遍反对调查 少数持观望态度 调查公布后，国会共和党方面反对声浪持续高涨，多位关键议员明确表达不满并采取相应立场，仅少数 议员持观望态度。 参议院银行委员会成员、北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯率先表态，在调查得出结果前，将阻 止任何美联储提名候选人的推进。这一立场得到多名共和党议员呼应，而参议院银行委员会由13名共和 党议员和11名民主党议员组成，只要有一名共和党议员倒戈，就可能导致提名陷入僵局，给特朗普计划 替换鲍威尔的意图带来阻碍。 阿拉斯加州共和党参议员莉萨·穆尔科斯基在社交平台X上发文抨击，称"政府的这一调查纯粹是胁迫行 为"，呼吁国会对司法部展开调查。她强调，项目成本超支并不罕见，美联储的独立性至关重要，一旦 失去，市场稳定和整体经济都将受影响，支持蒂利斯在事件解决前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump, highlighting the implications of a criminal investigation into Powell and the broader concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates based on economic conditions rather than political pressure [3][6]. - A survey of 200 CEOs revealed that 71% believe the Trump administration has weakened the Federal Reserve's independence, and 80% think Trump's pressure on Powell to lower interest rates is not in the best interest of the U.S. [7]. - Despite these concerns, there has been a lack of public support from corporate leaders for Powell, which raises questions about the corporate sector's commitment to the Federal Reserve's independence [5][7]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Economic Impact - Trump has consistently pressured Powell to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, while Powell's team is tasked with balancing growth and stability [6]. - The article notes that Trump's disregard for central bank independence could lead to market panic and economic disaster, as highlighted by CNN's financial commentator [5]. - The reluctance of corporate leaders to publicly support Powell may stem from fears of retaliation, as illustrated by the example of Harley-Davidson facing backlash from Trump for its business decisions [9]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The article suggests that the current political climate has shifted the focus of monetary policy from data-driven decisions to the personal preferences of the President, which could have long-term implications for economic stability [11]. - Powell's previous stance on inflation, which downplayed its structural nature during the pandemic, is criticized for contributing to the current economic challenges faced by many Americans [12]. - The article concludes that the lack of vocal support for Powell from the business community raises concerns about the future of monetary policy and its alignment with public interest [12].

美国国会议员：共和党普遍反对调查少数持观望态度 调查公布后，国会共和党方面反对声浪持续高涨，多位关键议员明确表达不满并采取相应立场，仅少数 议员持观望态度。 参议院银行委员会成员、北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆.蒂利斯率先表态，在调查得出结果前，将阻 止任何美联储提名候选人的推进。这一立场得到多名共和党议员呼应，而参议院银行委员会由13名共和 党议员和11名民主党议员组成，只要有一名共和党议员倒戈，就可能导致提名陷入僵局，给特朗普计划 替换鲍威尔的意图带来阻碍。 阿拉斯加州共和党参议员莉萨.穆尔科斯基在社交平台X上发文抨击，称"政府的这一调查纯粹是胁迫行 为"，呼吁国会对司法部展开调查。她强调，项目成本超支并不罕见，美联储的独立性至关重要，一旦 失去，市场稳定和整体经济都将受影响，支持蒂利斯在事件解决前阻止所有美联储提名的做法。 美国司法部对美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔发起刑事调查一事持续发酵，调查聚焦其对美联储总部翻新工 程的处理及相关国会证词。 此举被鲍威尔直指为因降息节奏未达总统特朗普预期而发起的恐吓与报复。周一，该事件引发美国国会 议员、华尔街投资机构及美联储和财政部前官员的广泛关注与强烈反应，美联储独立性 ...

美国司法部对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发起刑事调查一事持续发酵，调查聚焦其对美联储总部翻新工程的处理及相关国会证词。 此举被鲍威尔直指为因降息节奏未达总统特朗普预期而发起的恐吓与报复。周一，该事件引发美国国会议员、华尔街投资机构及美联储和财政部前官员的 广泛关注与强烈反应，美联储独立性问题成为各方争议核心。 美国国会议员：共和党普遍反对调查 少数持观望态度 值得注意的是，鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将持续到今年5月，但他作为美联储理事的任期要到2028年才结束，这为事件后续发展增添了变数。 华尔街：警惕市场不稳定风险 担忧长期利率与美元地位受冲击 从市场表现来看，周一美债收益率虽走高但远低于早盘恐慌性高点，10年期收益率微涨1个基点；美债10年期拍卖获得稳健需求，中标收益率略低于投标 时的市场水平。期货市场显示，交易员仍预计今年仅降息两次，每次25个基点，与上周末预期一致，表明政府施压短期内不太可能影响美联储近期利率决 策。市场暂时保持韧性，但投资机构均强调风险犹存。 华尔街各大投资机构普遍认为，特朗普政府对鲍威尔的刑事调查可能引发市场不稳定，中长期将带来多重风险，尽管短期市场反应相对克制。 管理约9000亿美元资产 ...

1月13日：上交易日周一（1月12日）：国际黄金受到周末地缘局势加剧，以及特朗普政府对美联储主席 鲍威尔展开刑事调查的不确定性加深，引发了市场对美联储独立性和美元长期前景的担忧。推动金价高 开高走，并刷新历史高点突破4600美元关口，虽最终由于部分获利了结和芝商所继续调整保证金的影 响，而有所回撤。但其收线上，仍使得多头动力进一步加强，后市则有望继续上行攀升。操作依然保持 逢低做多不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开至4516.02美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4512.88美元，之后反弹攀升，虽 至8点半时段触及4600美元关口，有所遇阻回撤近40美金，但整体依然保持震荡上行，并延续到美盘时 段，突破关口，进一步录得日内高点4629.86美元，最终遇阻回撤，收于4597.28美元，相对于上周五收 盘价4509.95美元，日振幅119.91美元，收涨87.33美元，涨幅1.94% 展望今日周二（1月13日）：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回撤动力，早盘有所走弱，加上美元指数延续 昨日的触底回升，早盘有所偏强，也限制了金价多头。但金价也仍具进一步上涨动力。 同时，日内还将受到美国12月未季调核心CPI年率的预期走高，而多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver have risen again with significant trading volume. The resonance of macro and geopolitical risks, along with expectations of liquidity and resource security, has become the main driving force. The trading logic of the impaired independence of the Federal Reserve has been repriced, leading to a continued upward trend in gold prices. Silver prices have accelerated their rise due to tight spot supply and high price elasticity, with significantly amplified short - term fluctuations [1]. - Gold and silver are expected to maintain an overall oscillatory and bullish pattern under the resonance of long - term expectations of loose liquidity, pro - cyclical trading, and concerns about resource security. The central price of gold is expected to continue to rise, with London gold focusing on the range of $4900 - 5000 per ounce. Silver may continue to experience high volatility, with London silver focusing on the range of $90 - 100 per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Trump administration in the United States has threatened to sue Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for his testimony in Congress last summer. Powell believes this is an excuse to expand the government's influence on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy [2]. - In December, U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected, with job losses in the construction, retail, and manufacturing sectors. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated rapidly [2]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will host a meeting of more than a dozen senior financial officials on Monday, urging the Group of Seven (G7) and other countries to increase efforts to reduce their dependence on China in the critical minerals sector [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: As the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman approaches, the threat of a subpoena from the Department of Justice to the current chairman has significantly increased the expectation of impaired independence. The market has further strengthened the pricing of long - term policy easing and constraints on the U.S. dollar's credit. Despite the FedWatch indicating a delay in the timing of interest rate cuts this year, the long - term "independence - credit - liquidity" logic dominates the price direction. Coupled with rising geopolitical risks and central bank allocation demand, gold is insensitive to marginal changes in interest rates, and continuous trend - following buying has pushed the price of London gold above $4600 per ounce [3]. - **Silver**: The Section 232 investigation on critical minerals has not been finalized, and expectations of tariffs and resource security have repeatedly disrupted the market. Hoarding demand has continuously squeezed the deliverable and liquid inventories in the United States. Although the London silver lease rate has recently fallen slightly to the 3% - 5% range, the structurally tight pattern remains unchanged. The tight spot supply and financial attributes have jointly amplified the price elasticity. Coupled with the rapid compression of the gold - silver ratio, silver has become the focus of risk - preference and resource - security trading, with its price breaking through $84 per ounce during the day and showing significant trading volume [3]. 3.3 Index Performance - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index was 2432.53, up 1.57%; the commodity 20 index was 2786.88, up 1.85%; the industrial products index was 2360.48, up 1.27%; the PPI commodity index was 1468.38, up 1.31% [47]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On January 12, 2026, the precious metals index was 4216.32, with a daily increase of 4.96%, a 5 - day increase of 3.89%, a 1 - month increase of 17.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.25% [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a cooling trend, and the investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has increased concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the US CPI data, Supreme Court rulings, and GDP data [10]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment may continue to improve moderately, with a focus on the investment end. Although the current fundamentals are in a weak off - season, policies are expected to take effect, and inflation data is marginally improving [10]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold at the monthly level. For silver, it is recommended to be neutrally allocated in the short - term and overweight when volatility stabilizes [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asset Price Changes a. Domestic financial assets - Index futures: The prices of沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000 futures all rose on January 12, 2026, with daily increases of 0.83, 0.36, 2.81, and 3.68 respectively [2]. - Treasury bond futures: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell slightly, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose [2]. - Exchange rates: The US dollar index rose, and the US dollar central parity rate fell [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased, while the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased slightly [2]. b. Domestic industries - Industries such as defense and military, computer, and media had relatively large daily and annual increases on January 12, 2026, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemical, real estate, and coal had declines [4]. c. Domestic commodities - Precious metals: Silver had a large daily increase of 11.65% on January 12, 2026, and other precious metals also showed different degrees of increase [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil rose, while some products such as fuel oil and asphalt had different trends [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Tin had a significant increase of 6.9%, and other non - ferrous metals also had various changes [5]. - Black building materials: Coke, iron ore, etc. had increases, and some products such as paper pulp had declines [5]. - Agricultural products: Some products such as soybean meal and palm oil had increases, while some products such as rapeseed meal and cotton had declines [5]. d. Overseas commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell sharply [8]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold and silver both rose [8]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper, aluminum, tin, etc. all had increases [8]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, etc. had different degrees of change [8]. 2. Market Logic and Short - term Judgment of Different Sectors a. Finance - Stock index futures: Market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. - Stock index options: Option hedging can increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Treasury bond futures: Long - term sentiment is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. b. Precious metals - Gold: Driven by expectations of loose liquidity and geopolitical conflicts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. - Silver: Affected by tight supply structure, liquidity sensitivity, and pro - cyclical factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. c. Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term, and the risk of resuming flights should be noted in the long - term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. d. Metals - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and the price has fallen after rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is strong, and inventory pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Non - ferrous metals: Most non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors [12]. e. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [14]. - Other energy and chemical products: Most products are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy [14]. f. Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors such as weather, policy, and supply and demand [14].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone increased significantly in January, reaching its highest level since July 2025, although it remains in negative territory [1][6] - The economic expectations index rose to 10.0 in January, nearly doubling from December, while the current situation index improved from -16.5 in December to -13.0 [1][6] - In Germany, the Sentix index improved from -22.7 to -16.4, marking the highest level since August 2025, with the expectations index turning positive from -1.3 to 5.5 [1][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under a criminal investigation regarding a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed's headquarters and his testimony to Congress [1][7] - Powell indicated that the investigation stems from President Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest rate decisions, which he claims are based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [1][7] - The outcome of this investigation could influence future decisions made by the Federal Reserve [1][7] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The US Dollar Index fell below the 99.00 mark, trading around 98.90, primarily due to profit-taking and concerns over the Fed's independence [3][8] - The Euro appreciated against the dollar, trading at approximately 1.1660, supported by the weak dollar and positive economic data from the Eurozone [4][9] - The British Pound also rose, trading at around 1.3470, benefiting from the dollar's weakness and technical buying near the 1.3400 level [5][10]