白宫内对此意见也不统一。 商务部长卢特尼克就"更倾向于解雇鲍威尔"，而财长贝森特则竭力劝阻。 这种内部分歧让局面更加复杂。 特朗普曾希望贝森特本人接任美联储主席，但贝森特因偏好现有职位而拒绝了。 这一切都围绕着同一个核心：特朗普试图通过政治力量影响货币政策，这 严重挑战了美联储的独立性传统。 央行独立性被认为是维持货币政策稳定和市场信心的基石。 更让美联储头疼的是经济数据"打架"。 刚公布的9月非农新增就业11.9万人，比市场预期的5万人高出一大截，看起来挺火热的。 同时失业率却从4.3%升到 了4.4%。 而且7月和8月的前值还被大幅下修了3.3万人。 这就像一个人一边说"我吃得特别多"，一边体重却在往下掉，让人搞不清真实状况。 雪上加霜的是数据"断粮"了。 因为之前的政府停摆，原本该公布的10月份非农数据，被推迟到12月美联储议息会议之后才能出来。 这意味着美联储下次开 会决定利率时，关键参考数据是缺失的，几乎等于"盲猜"。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克就直言，担心降息会偏离控制通胀的目标。 而美联储理事沃勒则持不 同看法，他更担忧就业市场持续放缓的风险，因此主张12月应继续降息。 这么一来，市场也懵了。 芝商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell highlight a significant clash over monetary policy, with Trump's desire to dismiss Powell reflecting deeper issues regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political pressures influencing economic decisions [2][3][19]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell is rooted in long-standing policy disagreements, particularly regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, which Trump believes are too slow and detrimental to economic growth [3][5]. - The legal framework protecting Federal Reserve officials complicates any potential dismissal, as the President can only remove them for "serious misconduct" through judicial processes, indicating that Trump's threats may be more about political pressure than actual intent [5][19]. - The internal division within the White House is notable, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocating for stability in monetary policy, contrasting with Trump's aggressive stance [8][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding future interest rate cuts, with a recent 25 basis point cut reflecting ongoing debates about the economic outlook [13][15]. - Trump's push for rapid rate cuts conflicts with the Fed's cautious approach, as inflation pressures and a resilient job market suggest that aggressive easing could lead to negative economic consequences [15][19]. - The potential appointment of a new Fed chair aligned with Trump's views could further undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the long-term stability of U.S. monetary policy [17][19].

英伟达"炸裂"财报之后，全球市场情绪又突变，AI泡沫担忧重新袭来，美股一夜大反转。 与此同时，美国经济数据一团乱麻，特朗普疯狂想炒掉鲍威尔。 美东时间周三，特朗普公开痛批鲍威尔"极度无能"，直言很想将其解雇。 面对财政部长贝森特的极力劝阻，他表示，"贝森特唯一的失误就是美联储政策"，若美联储不降息，他 将解雇贝森特。 周四，美国经济数据公布后，贝森特随即表态，呼吁美联储"关注数据，继续其降息周期。" 救命稻草 特朗普执着换帅的背后，是关税困局与政治压力的双重驱动。 当前美国经济正站在"滞胀"悬崖边缘：国际货币基金组织11月最新报告显示，2025年美国经济增长率预 计为2.0%，显著低于2024年的2.8%，在发达经济体中复苏动能较弱。 耶鲁大学关税研究中心发布的数据显示，截至10月16日，美国消费者当前面临的总体平均有效关税税率 飙升至17.9%，为1934年以来的最高水平。 这直接推动美国PCE指数上涨，生活成本高企让美国家庭倍感压力。 据路透社/益普索最新民调显示，特朗普的支持率跌至38%，这是他重返白宫以来的最低水平，主要原 因在于美国人对他在处理生活成本和针对爱泼斯坦的调查方面表示不满。 在此背景下， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of approximately $500 million in China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds reflects a long-term strategic adjustment rather than a temporary decision, indicating a shift in China's approach to U.S. debt amid rising U.S. debt levels and interest payments [1][18]. Group 1: China's Actions - In September, China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from about $7,010 billion to $7,005 billion, continuing a trend of gradual reduction that has seen a total decrease of nearly $3,000 billion since 2022 [1][3]. - This reduction is part of a broader strategy to enhance financial security and reassess the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][18]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with projections indicating it could reach $40 trillion soon, highlighting a significant increase in debt levels over the past decade [4][19]. - The net interest payments for the federal government are projected to approach $1 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, nearly doubling from four years ago, which raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [5][19]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The rapid increase in interest payments and the growing debt burden have led to heightened investor caution regarding U.S. Treasury securities, as the perception shifts from viewing them as "risk-free" to recognizing the associated political and fiscal uncertainties [4][5]. - The combination of external tariffs and internal tax cuts in U.S. policy has made foreign investors, particularly long-term holders like China, more wary of continuing to purchase U.S. debt [6][19]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - The ongoing political tensions in the U.S., particularly the criticism directed at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by former President Trump, reflect a broader conflict between short-term political goals and long-term economic stability [10][12]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived to be under threat as political pressures mount, which could impact future monetary policy decisions and investor confidence in U.S. financial governance [15][19]. Group 5: Global Implications - The shift in China's strategy to reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings is indicative of a potential turning point in the global financial landscape, as countries begin to explore alternatives to reliance on the U.S. dollar and its associated risks [18][19]. - This environment necessitates a careful management of existing U.S. debt assets and a diversification of reserves to mitigate risks, emphasizing the importance of maintaining financial stability in a changing geopolitical context [18].

Core Points - The article discusses the defense of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's mortgage loan application records by her attorney, who claims that discrepancies are either accurate or mere clerical errors, asserting that they do not constitute fraud [2] - The controversy surrounding Cook has escalated, particularly after former President Trump attempted to remove her from her position, citing alleged mortgage loan fraud, which Cook has vehemently denied [2][9] - The legal battle has gained traction, with the Supreme Court temporarily blocking Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook and scheduling a hearing for January [10] Group 1: Legal and Political Context - Cook's attorney, Abbe Lowell, has accused William Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, of selective enforcement in submitting allegations against Cook, suggesting a politically motivated attack [3][8] - The attorney argues that Pulte's actions, including the dismissal of oversight officials, undermine the credibility of the charges against Cook, indicating potential abuse of power [3][8] - The timing of Trump's and Pulte's actions raises suspicions of political motives, particularly as both have called for quicker interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4] Group 2: Mortgage Loan Allegations - The mortgage applications in question involve three properties owned by Cook, with particular scrutiny on her claims of primary residence status for multiple properties [5][6] - Cook's attorney contends that her refinancing of the Ann Arbor property was legitimate, as she was living there at the time and had proper rental permits after moving to Washington, D.C. [6] - The attorney acknowledges a discrepancy in the Atlanta property application but attributes it to a clerical error, arguing that other documents clarify its intended use as a vacation home [7] Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on whether Trump can dismiss Cook could have significant implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve, as it may set a precedent for presidential influence over central bank officials [10][11] - If the court rules in favor of Trump, it could weaken the Federal Reserve's autonomy in monetary policy decisions, raising concerns among investors about the potential for political interference in economic matters [11] - The case has attracted widespread attention from economists and investors, highlighting the broader implications of the legal dispute on financial stability and public trust in the Federal Reserve [11]

Core Viewpoint - Janet Yellen warns that the U.S. democracy is in "deadly danger," likening its potential future to that of a "banana republic," a term typically used to describe politically unstable countries with economies controlled by external forces or internal oligarchs [1][4]. Group 1: Political and Economic Stability - Yellen emphasizes that the influx of global capital into the U.S. is driven by the certainty provided by a stable political system, which includes the rule of law, policy coherence, and equal treatment under the law [4]. - She observes that this foundational stability is being replaced by impulsive and discontent-driven personal will, particularly criticizing the actions of former President Trump [5]. Group 2: Fear in Business and Academia - Yellen notes that fear has silenced U.S. CEOs, who worry about being targeted if they cross invisible lines, leading to a chilling effect that extends to universities and research institutions [5][7]. - The White House's threats to cut federal funding for "politically incorrect" universities contribute to a hostile environment for foreign-born scientists and students, jeopardizing U.S. leadership in cutting-edge technology [7]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Yellen warns that the independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, as Trump has criticized the Fed and attempted to influence its decisions, which could lead to a collapse of the firewall between monetary and fiscal policy [8][12]. - She highlights that if the President demands the Fed to finance government deficits, it would mirror the situation in "banana republics," leading to currency collapse and hyperinflation [8][12]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Risks - Despite the current AI investment boom, Yellen believes it masks underlying economic risks that may not be immediately visible in consumer prices but will manifest in the value of the dollar [9][11]. - Since the announcement of new tariffs in April, the dollar has depreciated by 4% against a basket of major currencies, indicating a lack of confidence among global investors [11]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - Yellen's concerns reflect a broader issue of institutional decay that could take decades to unfold, potentially undermining the U.S.'s ability to attract global capital and talent [12][13]. - The erosion of institutional integrity could represent a strategic advantage for U.S. competitors, as the country risks dismantling its core assets that have historically supported its global dominance [12][13].

"懂王"特朗普又一次把矛头对准了美联储主席鲍威尔。 "我很想解雇鲍威尔，他极其无能。"特朗普在近日的发言中毫不掩饰其不满，甚至提出应就美联储的建 设成本问题起诉鲍威尔。 美联储人事风波 特朗普暗示称，美国财政部长贝森特正竭力劝阻他解雇鲍威尔。他甚至调侃道，贝森特唯一搞砸的就是 美联储，利率太高了——如果你不尽快搞定，我就炒了你。 特朗普还补充说，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克则"更倾向于解雇鲍威尔"。这一言论再次将白宫内部在美 联储问题上的分歧摆上台面。 分析人士称，贝森特是白宫内部偏理性的存在。解雇鲍威尔将对央行的独立性构成危险威胁，并可能对 金融市场造成严重打击。 在政策走向上，美联储内部同样充满分歧。 美东时间周三（11月19日），美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策 会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 此外，近期多位联储官员密集发表"鹰派"讲话，也进一步打压了市场对降息的预期—— 其中，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，虽然他能够支持最近的两次降息，但他还不确定下个月是 否会再次降息。他希望以最新数据作为指引，决定何为合适的政策。美国达拉斯联 ...

Core Points - The recent U.S. government shutdown has exposed the fragility of the national machinery, leading to significant disruptions in various sectors, including air travel [1][3] - The shutdown is rooted in a political struggle over citizen welfare qualifications, driven by the controversial "Great and Beautiful Act" pushed by Trump and the Republican Party [3][5] - The act's provisions are expected to result in over 12 million people losing healthcare coverage and threaten food assistance for nearly 5 million [5][19] Group 1: Political Dynamics - The "Great and Beautiful Act" aims to redefine social welfare eligibility, mandating that non-disabled adults must provide proof of at least 80 hours of work per month to receive medical and food assistance [3][5] - The act includes tax cuts that favor specific groups, such as restaurant workers and blue-collar employees, which aligns with Trump's core support base [5][10] - The government shutdown has been utilized strategically by the Trump administration to target perceived Democratic supporters within the federal workforce [8][10] Group 2: Economic Implications - The act is projected to create a fiscal deficit of $5 to $6 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating an already high deficit rate, which is expected to rise from 6.4% to 7.3% [19][21] - The historical context of tax cuts leading to economic instability is highlighted, referencing the 1920s and the subsequent Great Depression as a cautionary tale [21][23] - The current political maneuvering is seen as a potential threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve and long-term economic stability [16][18] Group 3: Social Impact - The welfare debate has transformed into a moral judgment on who deserves assistance, fostering negative sentiments towards welfare recipients and creating new social divides [7][10] - Local elections have shown a backlash against the Republican strategy, with Democratic candidates successfully focusing on economic issues rather than cultural controversies [12][14] - The political landscape is shifting, with signs indicating a potential increase in Democratic control over Congress, reflecting changing public sentiment [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting power dynamics between the U.S. presidency and the Federal Reserve, highlighting how Trump's actions and rhetoric have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the stability of the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve is described as a powerful institution that influences both the U.S. economy and global financial markets, with its decisions impacting over $70 trillion in financial assets [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar, as it prevents monetary policy from being swayed by short-term political interests [3][5]. - Trump's public criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reflects a significant challenge to this independence, as he seeks to influence monetary policy to benefit his political agenda [4][10]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's desire for low interest rates and loose monetary policy is aimed at boosting the stock market and economic growth to enhance his political standing, which conflicts with Powell's focus on inflation and employment [4][8]. - The potential for Trump to replace Powell raises alarms about the Fed becoming a political tool, which could undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [4][10]. - The article warns that if the Fed loses its independence, it could lead to a loss of trust in the U.S. financial system, resulting in a significant shift in global capital flows and a potential financial crisis [9][10]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - The ongoing debate about the Fed's independence has led to increased volatility in the dollar index and a trend towards "de-dollarization" among various economies, indicating a growing distrust in the U.S. financial system [9][10]. - The article emphasizes that the stability of the global financial system relies on the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is threatened by political interference in monetary policy [10][12]. - Countries are increasingly exploring alternatives to the dollar, which could reshape the global financial landscape and reduce reliance on U.S. monetary policy [13][14].

特朗普对美联储的干预动向 Wmax通过持续跟踪观察到，特朗普正以多重举措试图影响美联储决策。他不仅对美联储主席提出公开批评并施压，更试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，同时 推动其首席经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰进入联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），明确要求将利率降低3个百分点。 在Wmax的专业研判中，这一行为呈现出鲜明的两面性解读：支持者将其视为对美联储长期通胀目标失准、群体思维固化的必要改革，认为2024年大选前降 息更偏向民主党连任诉求；批评者则担忧这是典型的党派政治接管，意图复刻保守派主导最高法院的路径，在FOMC构建支持低利率的"超级多数派"。 基准偏向情景：若美联储受政治导向影响，更侧重维持低失业率而非锚定通胀目标，降息频次将较基准情景增加两次。市场会快速识别这一政策转向，导致 通胀预期锚定松动，物价涨幅逐步攀升至3%。 极端接管情景：若美联储完全屈服于政治压力，将政策利率降至1%并持续维持，即便通胀数据恶化也不调整，短期会呈现虚假繁荣。但通胀预期将显著走 高，当物价涨幅突破4%后，市场会将美联储独立性丧失定价为体制性转变，五年期借贷成本可能攀升3个百分点，重现1970年代末期的利率波动。2026年的 表面繁荣 ...