央视网消息：日前，经济合作与发展组织发布了最新的经济展望报告，其中，对2025年中国经济增速预测继续上调到5%，这是 经合组织今年内第三次上调对中国的经济预测。对于2025年中国经济呈现出的特点，多位国际机构的驻华负责人都表示，中国经济呈 现出了韧性、转型和活力，中国仍然是全球增长的关键贡献者。 中国"两新"政策有效拉动消费增长 经合组织驻华代表海博表示，今年中国加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，这有效拉动了消费增长，出口和支 撑出口的制造业也表现强劲。 经济合作与发展组织驻华代表 海博：如果我要用三个关键词来描述2025年的中国经济，我肯定会说"韧性"、"转型"和"活力"，不 管外部环境如何，中国经济表现良好，工业和产业结构加速转型，技术升级快速推进。 技术创新驱动产业变革迸发新活力 他表示，2025年，受技术创新的驱动，不少产业经历了颠覆性的变革，迸发出新的活力。低空经济等新兴领域的最新成果让他印 象深刻。 经济合作与发展组织驻华代表 海博：在武汉的汽车展览会上，我看到了电动飞行器。我觉得这真的很酷，它展示了技术的未 来，但它不仅仅是存在于纸面的技术，它实际上可能很快就会进入商业运营。 超四 ...

他强调，如何对冲房地产投资下降带来的影响，将是下一步需要重点解决的问题。 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"的和讯财经 中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜在北京举行。邱晓华在大会演讲中表达了上述观点。 他分析了支撑经济实现目标的三大因素：一是宏观政策积极有效应对，包括积极的财政政策、适度宽松 的货币政策以及消费和投资政策，为经济爬坡过坎提供了有力支撑；二是出口表现超出预期，尽管年初 面临美国"关税战"压力，但企业和进口商的"双抢效应"使得对外经济保持正增长；三是国内市场韧性增 强。 同时，邱晓华也指出当前经济面临的两大突出问题：一是物价持续低位运行，生产价格和消费价格尚未 恢复到正常水平，制约投资、消费和企业效益；二是国内有效需求不足，其中投资需求出现改革开放40 多年来首次负增长，1至11月投资下降约2%，主要受房地产投资两位数下降拖累（房地产投资占总投资 的1/3）。若剔除房地产因素，投资仍保持正增长。 12月7日，国家统计局原局长、阳光保险集团顾问邱晓华在发言中指出，2025年作为"十四五"收官之 年，中国经济总体表现圆满。根据当前发展态势全年5%左右 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is showing a steady and progressive development trend, with various sectors indicating positive growth and stability in recent months [1]. Group 1: Logistics Industry - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was reported at 50.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The business volume index across eastern, central, and western regions of China is relatively balanced, indicating stable demand in the logistics sector [4]. - The postal and express delivery industry saw a business volume index of 70.2%, with growth driven by offline entities, social e-commerce platforms, and comprehensive e-commerce platforms [4]. Group 2: Service Trade - From January to October, China's total service trade import and export amounted to 65,844.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [6]. - Service exports reached 29,090.3 billion yuan, growing by 14.3%, while the service trade deficit decreased by 2,693.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - Knowledge-intensive service trade maintained growth, with imports and exports totaling 25,121.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% [6]. Group 3: Consumer Goods - From January to November, the "old-for-new" consumption policy led to sales exceeding 25,000 billion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [9]. - The program included over 11.2 million vehicles, 12.8 million home appliances, and 9.015 million digital products being replaced under the initiative [9]. Group 4: Telecommunications Industry - The telecommunications industry in China has shown overall stability in the first ten months of 2025, with significant growth in user numbers for 5G, gigabit broadband, and the Internet of Things [10]. - By the end of October, the number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.184 billion, accounting for 64.7% of mobile phone users [12]. - Mobile internet traffic has also seen rapid growth, exceeding 3,200 billion GB, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [12].

Economic Overview - China's GDP is expected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest economy [3] - The economy has shown resilience despite external uncertainties, with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] - The urban unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stability in the job market [6] Consumption and Investment - Consumption has emerged as the main driver of economic growth, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing burdens on enterprises [8][16] - Significant investments are being made in clean energy projects, such as the nearly 73 billion yuan investment in the Qinghai Hainan clean energy transmission project [4] International Trade and Foreign Investment - The scale of goods imports and exports reached a historical high in the first three quarters, with foreign exchange reserves increasing to 33,433 billion USD by the end of October [6] - Foreign investments are on the rise, with companies like Danfoss and Medtronic establishing major operations in China, reflecting confidence in the Chinese market [22] Innovation and Technology - The quantum computing sector is advancing, with significant achievements showcased at the 2025 Quantum Technology and Industry Conference, indicating a growing industrial ecosystem [11] - The manufacturing sector remains robust, with the added value of equipment manufacturing accounting for over 35% of industrial output, and the industrial internet core industry exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [15] Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with a commitment to high-quality development as a central theme for the next five years [17][19] - Recent assessments from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy, highlighting its stability as a cornerstone for global economic growth [8]

前10个月，我国中部、西部地区快递业务收入占全国比重同比分别上升0.6个和0.3个百分点；快递业务 量占全国比重分别上升1.1个和0.6个百分点。 0:00 国家邮政局监测数据显示，截至今年11月30日，我国快递年业务量首次突破1800亿件。来自广东深圳市 的一名市民网购的智能学习机，成为今年我国第1800亿件快递。 月均超160亿件，单日最高7.77亿件，每秒超6200件……1800亿件"小包裹"量质齐升，为消费市场注入 强劲发展动能，折射出中国经济蓬勃活力。 透过快递这扇窗口，可以看见一个从"大市场"向"强市场"稳步转变的中国——1天之内，有超过1万列铁 路旅客列车在神州大地上穿梭开行，近340亿元实物商品在网上交易买卖；过去4年，最终消费对经济增 长的平均贡献率达到56.2%，比"十三五"期间提高8.6个百分点；稳居全球第二大消费市场、第一大网络 零售市场、第二大进口市场…… 新华社音视频部制作 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms and innovation to stimulate China's economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, despite facing short-term challenges [1][11]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations - The CMF annual report suggests setting a cross-cycle target for 2026, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, a CPI target of 1%-3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [2]. - Liu Shijin advocates for increasing the consumption share of GDP by 1 percentage point annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to boost economic growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of enhancing both the height (productivity) and width (effective demand) of economic growth [6]. Group 2: Financial Factors and Market Opportunities - Li Yang identifies four key financial factors influencing economic operations from 2026 onwards: changes in social financing structure, declining interest rates, new opportunities in capital markets, and a new paradigm for monetary policy [3]. - The phenomenon of "disintermediation" is seen as a positive development for capital market growth, as funds are flowing out of the banking system, creating new investment opportunities [3][4]. Group 3: Employment and Income Distribution - Cai Fang emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to promote employment, increase income, and stabilize expectations, proposing five combinations to achieve these goals [8][9]. - The focus on increasing both per capita income and improving income distribution is crucial, especially in light of the natural slowdown in income growth [9]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - Yang Ruilong asserts that despite short-term pressures, the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, driven by traditional growth dynamics and emerging new growth drivers [11][12]. - The necessity of building a modern industrial system through technological innovation and institutional reform is highlighted as essential for achieving high-quality development [12].

Core Insights - China's economy is demonstrating strong resilience and structural adjustment capabilities despite facing multiple challenges, with a focus on enhancing economic momentum towards new quality growth by 2025 [1][4] Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP is expected to achieve a growth target of around 5%, significantly higher than the global average growth rate of approximately 3.9% during the same period [2][4] - The contribution of China's economy to global growth is projected to remain above 30%, acting as a stabilizing force for global trade amidst rising uncertainties [2][3] Sectoral Developments - The manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech and equipment manufacturing, has shown robust growth, with value-added output increasing by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] - Exports have demonstrated strong resilience, with a growth rate of 6.2% from January to October 2025, reflecting improvements in product quality, technology, and brand competitiveness [4] Consumer Trends - Consumer spending is increasingly focused on high-quality products, with smart home appliances accounting for over 50% of sales in certain retail channels [5] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters, marking a 9 percentage point increase from the previous year [5] Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies in 2026, with a focus on enhancing consumption, optimizing the business environment, and stabilizing industrial production [7] - Three new opportunities for economic growth are identified for 2026: the initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and the recovery of micro-market entities [7][6]

在2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中，人民银行强调，要坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货 币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币对美元汇率中间价持续向偏强方向调整，这与中国经济 稳健发展，而同期美元汇率下跌有关。 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，今年，在国际经济形势不确定性增加的背景下，人民币不跌反 涨，反映了中国经济回升向好、美元指数走弱等多重因素的综合影响，预计上述因素仍将对未来人民币 汇率走势形成支撑。 管涛认为，2026年人民币汇率走势或面临多重利好因素：一是国内经济回升向好，科技创新步伐进一步 加快；二是中美经贸关系趋于稳定，提振市场情绪；三是美元信用裂痕或将进一步扩大；四是美联储恢 复降息或将驱动美元走弱。 在王青看来，市场普遍预期美联储未来可能继续降息，短期内美元指数上行空间有限。而我国经济基本 面将为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑，预计一段时间内人民币仍将处于稳健偏强状态。 近期，全球汇市波动加剧，而人民币对美元走势稳中偏强。11月25日， ...

经济日报记者 姚 进 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，今年，在国际经济形势不确定性增加的背景下，人民币不 跌反涨，反映了中国经济回升向好、美元指数走弱等多重因素的综合影响，预计上述因素仍将对未来人 民币汇率走势形成支撑。 管涛认为，2026年人民币汇率走势或面临多重利好因素：一是国内经济回升向好，科技创新步伐进 一步加快；二是中美经贸关系趋于稳定，提振市场情绪；三是美元信用裂痕或将进一步扩大；四是美联 储恢复降息或将驱动美元走弱。 在王青看来，市场普遍预期美联储未来可能继续降息，短期内美元指数上行空间有限。而我国经济 基本面将为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑，预计一段时间内人民币仍将处于稳健偏强状态。 在2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中，人民银行强调，要坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮 子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险，保持人 民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 （责任编辑：蔡情） 近期，全球汇市波动加剧，而人民币对美元走势稳中偏强。11月25日，离岸、在岸人民币对美元即 期汇率均升破7.09，创下逾一年新高。26日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience amidst complex external pressures and internal transformation, achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1][2] - Key factors contributing to this performance include proactive macro policies, ongoing reforms and opening up, strong consumer spending, and the buffering effect of external shocks on trade [1][3] Economic Cycle Perspective - The current economic situation is viewed as the "fourth adjustment" cycle, characterized by the interplay of external changes, the COVID-19 pandemic, and internal transformation challenges [2][3] - Despite these challenges, the economy has maintained a growth rate of approximately 5%, showcasing significant systemic resilience [2] Transition and Reform - Signs indicate that the current economic adjustment is nearing a resolution, with the real estate market's impact expected to lessen and substantial progress in the transition from old to new economic drivers [3] - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and low-altitude economy are becoming significant growth engines [3][4] Technological Revolution Perspective - The ongoing technological revolution presents unprecedented strategic opportunities for China, marking a shift from being a passive observer to an active participant and leader in various sectors [4][5] - The government's strategic focus includes building a modern industrial system and promoting the transformation of traditional industries towards smarter and greener practices [5][6] Infrastructure Development - Significant investments are being made in both traditional and new infrastructure, including renewable energy and storage, to support the ongoing industrial transformation [6] - Major national projects and infrastructure developments are expected to provide robust support for this profound industrial change [6] Geopolitical Context - The evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the dynamics of Sino-American relations, is a critical factor influencing China's economic future [7][8] - A complex relationship characterized by both competition and cooperation is anticipated, with a focus on addressing global challenges while managing core security and technology issues [8] Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese economy is optimistic, with a recognition that while the path may be challenging, the potential for growth and development remains strong [8]