万联证券股份有限公司投资顾问屈放在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，"抢装潮"过后，企业对市场 整体处于观望状态，导致多晶硅的下游需求有所减少。 硅业分会的报告显示，5月份以来，部分多晶硅企业再度进入停产或检修状态，一定程度上反映了企业 的避险行为，可视为本阶段价格已达到企业承受亏损的极限。另外，即将进入丰水期，预计本年度暂无 新增复产计划，均为产能置换，甚至是以小产能替代大产能。供应大幅缩减能够在一定程度上缓解当前 的供需错配局面，缓和产业和企业各方的压力。 据硅业分会统计，截至目前，多晶硅在产企业数量为11家，基本全部处于降负荷运行状态。对此，硅业 分会判断，多晶硅的价格有止跌企稳的趋势。 根据中国光伏行业协会公布的行业单耗及现有成本结构测算，多晶硅的现金成本约为36元/千克。若考 虑7元/千克的折旧费用，则生产成本上升至43元/千克。 中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会(以下简称"硅业分会")5月21日发布的最新一周多晶硅价格显示，本周 多晶硅价格持稳。N型复投料成交价格区间为3.60万元/吨至4.10万元/吨，成交均价为3.86万元/吨；N型 颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.50万元/吨至3.70万元/吨，成交均价为 ...

一季度，阿特斯营收占CSIQ的比例超过90%（未经审计），是其主要生产经营主体。因此虽然公告披 露的是控股股东经营情况，但其实也是衡量阿特斯业绩的重要参考信息。 凭借储能系统产品维持增长，CSIQ预计二季度实现营收至少为136.4亿元，环比增长超六成，毛利率预 计由11.7%环比增长至23%~25%，主要因储能系统产品出货延续高增态势，成为组件跌价与需求下滑之 际的业绩第二增长点。 近日，光伏龙头阿特斯（688472.SZ）发布了控股股东阿特斯集团Canadian Solar Inc.（下称"CSIQ"） 2025年第一季度业绩以及第二季度、2025年度经营展望的公告。 CSIQ披露的全年光伏制造环节产能计划显示，预计拉棒、硅片、电池片和组件的二季度到四季度合计 增长约4%，其中拉棒和组件产能没有扩产，可见在行业供需依然严峻的背景下，光伏制造商正大幅放 缓投建产能的落地速度。 预计二季度收入环比增六成，全年组件出货或同比微降 CSIQ的生产经营主体是阿特斯，根据公告，CSIQ一季度的营业收入为12亿美元（折合人民币86.2亿 元）。而根据财报，一季度阿特斯实现营收85.85亿元，两者相差不到0.4亿元。对比可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric equipment and new energy sector, including Ningde Times, Keda Li, and others, with a focus on their growth potential and market positioning [5][6]. Core Insights - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 1.39%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with lithium battery indices showing the highest growth at 4.14% [1]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price decline across the supply chain, but overseas demand remains strong, with several domestic companies securing significant international orders [3][29]. - The State Grid is accelerating major project constructions, enhancing the "West-to-East Power Transmission" initiative, which supports the green and low-carbon transition of the economy [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Better Ray launched new products aimed at solid-state battery technology, providing high energy and safety material solutions [2][11]. - The solid-state battery materials include high-nickel cathodes and silicon-based anodes, which enhance performance and safety [11][19]. Photovoltaics - The price of the photovoltaic supply chain has decreased, starting from the component level and affecting upstream materials significantly [29]. - Domestic demand has not collapsed post-531 policy, but some orders may be canceled due to grid connection deadlines [29]. - Major companies like Longi and Trina Solar have secured substantial overseas contracts, indicating a robust international market presence [29][31]. Electric Equipment and Automation - The State Grid's recent advancements in ultra-high voltage power grid construction are pivotal for clean energy transmission and economic transformation [4]. - Key companies to watch include Ningde Times, Keda Li, and others involved in significant project developments [4]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies are projected to have strong earnings growth, with Ningde Times expected to achieve an EPS of 15.19 in 2025, maintaining a PE ratio of 17 [5]. - Other recommended companies include Keda Li, Zhongke Electric, and Hunan YN, all showing promising growth trajectories [5]. Market Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trends in the lithium battery materials market, with prices showing slight fluctuations but overall stability [24]. - The photovoltaic industry is expected to recover as supply chain prices stabilize, with a focus on companies that can innovate and differentiate themselves [38].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **polysilicon industry** and its current market dynamics, including supply and demand, pricing trends, and the operational status of key companies like Tongwei, Daqo, and Xinte [1][5][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Polysilicon Pricing Trends**: The spot price of polysilicon has shown significant volatility, with dense material prices around 37,000 CNY/ton and by-product material prices nearing 39,000 CNY/ton. The actual delivery price is close to 40,000 CNY/ton, but recent lows have been reported at 34,000 to 35,000 CNY/ton. If futures prices fall below 30,000 CNY/ton, it could lead to industry-wide cash losses [1][2][4]. - **Low Operating Rates**: Major companies like Tongwei, Daqo, and Xinte are operating at around 30% capacity due to a strategic shift towards reducing losses and maintaining cash flow. This low operating rate is a response to previous cash loss experiences [1][5][9]. - **Market Expectations**: There are expectations of a potential price increase in polysilicon futures as the delivery month approaches, with very few deliverable products available. This scarcity could favor long positions in the market [1][4][6]. - **Self-Regulation and Policy Expectations**: The industry has not yet reached the self-regulatory pricing goals set for December 2024, leading to ongoing low prices. There are rumors of potential self-regulatory measures and government policies aimed at stabilizing prices, which could impact future market dynamics [1][8][17]. - **Production Costs**: Tongwei's production base in Baotou has a cash cost of approximately 27,000 CNY/ton, while other bases in Yunnan and Sichuan are currently paused, with average cash costs expected to exceed 30,000 CNY/ton. Current product prices do not support the resumption of production at these bases [1][9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Production and Inventory Levels**: In April, domestic polysilicon production was about 98,000 tons, expected to decrease to 96,000 tons in May. The number of operating companies has reduced to around ten, with an operating rate of 30-40% [3][12]. - **Market Demand**: The downstream demand for silicon wafers and modules remains stable, with April production levels around 60 GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of approximately 128,000 tons [3][12]. - **Company Performance**: Aiko Solar has seen a rapid increase in sales of its ABC modules in Europe, achieving a shipment of 4.5 GW in Q1 2025, a 40% year-on-year increase, and becoming the leading company in global BC module shipments [3][19]. - **Future Market Dynamics**: The polysilicon industry is currently in a phase of low prices and high inventory, which has prevented significant price increases. The market is expected to remain cautious, with companies closely monitoring water and electricity conditions and price trends [10][14][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the polysilicon industry.

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index turning negative, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw a slight increase of 0.17% to close at 3374.87 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 13,262 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed strength today, with several banks reaching new highs, including Chongqing Bank up over 4%, Shanghai Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Pudong Development Bank each rising over 3% [3][4] - Institutional investors are increasingly favoring the banking sector, driven by regulatory support for public funds and increased insurance capital entering the market [3] - The fundamental logic for investing in banks remains strong, as they are expected to be less affected by US-China trade tensions compared to other industries [3] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector saw a significant rally, with stocks like China National Aviation Holding rising over 23% and Ningbo Shipping reaching the daily limit [6][7] - Analysts suggest that progress in US-China tariff negotiations could lead to a positive shift in the container shipping market, with demand expected to recover due to increased purchases from US retailers [6][8] Solar Industry - The solar industry experienced a surge, with stocks like Dongfang Risheng rising nearly 17% and Daqo New Energy increasing by about 14% [10][11] - A rumor regarding major silicon material manufacturers planning to consolidate and store inventory has sparked interest in the sector, although companies have denied any such plans [12] - Analysts believe that the solar industry's financial performance has reached a bottom, with reduced expansion intentions due to low profitability [13]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a high opening followed by a pullback, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index turning negative, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.17% to 3374.87 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 13,262 billion, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strength today, with several banks reaching new highs, including Chongqing Bank up over 4%, Shanghai Bank and Xiamen Bank up over 3%, and others like Chengdu Bank and Jiangsu Bank rising about 2% [4][6] - Notable bank stocks included: - Chongqing Bank: +4.41% to 11.60 - Shanghai Bank: +3.76% to 11.05 - Xiamen Bank: +3.45% to 5.99 -浦发银行: +3.16% to 12.08 [5] Shipping Sector Surge - The shipping sector saw a significant late-session rally, with notable gains including: - China National Shipping: +23.54% to 9.50 - Huaguang Source Sea: +17.74% to 29.87 - Ningbo Shipping and Ningbo Ocean both hitting the daily limit up [8][9] - Analysts suggest that progress in US-China tariff negotiations may lead to a positive feedback loop in the shipping market, with increased demand from US retailers and supply adjustments [10] Solar Industry Growth - The solar industry chain stocks surged, with key performers including: - Oriental Sunrise: +16.96% to 11.17 - Daqo New Energy: +13.99% to 22.25 - GCL-Poly Energy and other stocks hitting the daily limit up [12][13] - A circulating rumor about major silicon material manufacturers planning to reduce production to stabilize prices contributed to the surge, although companies later denied any such plans [14]

A股三大指数早盘涨跌不一，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.08%，深证成指跌0.24%，创业板指跌 0.23%。全市场半日成交额9072亿元，较上个交易日同期放量434亿元，超3400只个股下跌。 盘面上，光伏概念股早盘集体大涨，通威股份盘中涨停。银行板块早盘震荡走高，上海银行 等盘中均创出历史新高。AI智能体概念表现活跃，酷特智能3分钟封住20%涨停。 AI智能体概念活跃 酷特智能3分钟涨停 13日，AI智能体概念表现活跃，酷特智能从9点32分起拉升，在9点35分封住20%涨停。 | 酷特智能 < V િ | | --- | | 300840 | | 24.41 今开 23.00 最高 24.41 最低 22.62 | | 20.01% 4.07 换手 21.68% 总手 38.4万 金额 9.15亿 | | 总值 58.58亿 流值 43.23亿 市盈型 95.17 更多 | | 分时 | 王日 | 日 K 周Ｋ | 月 K | 更多, | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 24.41 | | 20.01% 卖1 | | | | | | | 买1 | 24.41 14.7万 | ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

投资建议：公司战略转型效果显著，海外业务实现高增，光伏组件出货市占率稳居前十。随着光伏产业 链报价见底，行业盈利有望逐步迎来修复，公司营业收入有望见底，盈利有望回升。我们预计公司 2025-2027年营业收入分别为176.60 亿元、203.48 亿元、239.16 亿元；归母净利润分别为1.16 亿元、 2.18 亿元、4.20 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为0.02 元、0.04元、0.07 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险、下游需求风险、市场竞争加剧风险、政策风险。 事件一：公司近日发布2024 年年度报告，实现营业收入162.40 亿元，同比+1.70%，实现归母净利润 0.68 亿元，同比-56.70%；其中Q4 实现营收42.50 亿元，同比-35.18%，环+9.61%；实现归母净利-0.14 亿元，同比-189.28%，环-135.29%。 事件二：公司近日发布2025 年一季度报告，实现营业收入31.55 亿元，同比+7.06%，环比-25.75%；实 现归母净利润-1.98 亿元，同比-911.39%，环比-1354.18% 出货稳居前10，全球化品牌助力海外业务高增。基于 ...

N型致密料成交价格区间为3.5-3.70万元/吨，成交均价为3.63万元/吨，环比下降1.68%。前期终端抢装带 动组件和电池片价格上涨，但多晶硅受制于高库存，现货价格整体保持稳定。4月下旬，抢装逐渐进入 尾声，利好效果边际递减，强刺激的政策割裂光伏市场短和长期市场判断并开始形成负反馈，企业端继 续减产预期较低，供需的强预期近期已经发生反转，更需要注意渐入丰水季后还有增产预期。多晶硅期 现开始转入弱势运行阶段，如果没有继续超预期的政策刺激接力价格仍有下行空间;短期宏观风险释放 提升市场风险偏好，超跌后修复性反弹转震荡。 机构 核心观点 建信期货 多晶硅超跌后修复性反弹转震荡 格林大华期货 预计短期内多晶硅价格低位震荡运行 建信期货：多晶硅超跌后修复性反弹转震荡 4月24日盘中，多晶硅期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至39840.0元。截止收盘，多晶硅主力 合约报39375.0元，涨幅2.26%。 多晶硅期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 格林大华期货：预计短期内多晶硅价格低位震荡运行 行情回顾：多晶硅市场P型料周成交价格持平，目前现货市场均价为3.38万元/吨，N型致密料平均价格 ...