市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会 和谐稳定，正当其时。 国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所研究员陈丽芬指出，应多措并举提高居民消费能力。一是围绕"提低、扩中"完善收入分配制度；二是促 进稳定和充分就业。大力发展服务业，支持新业态新模式发展不断创造新就业岗位；三是着力保障和改善民生。把促消费与惠民生结合起 来，加大财政对教育、医疗等基本公共服务的投入，提高城乡居民基本养老金，切实提升中低收入群体的消费能力和信心。 党的二十届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》，进一步将构建全国统一大市场列为全面深 化改革的重点任务。本次中央经济工作会也指出，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设。这一战略部署不仅是推动经 济持续向好的现实需求，更是畅通国内大循环、推动经济高质量发展的关键举措，是实现中国式现代化的重要制度保障。 文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 20 25年中央经济工作会议于12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议全面总结 20 25年经济工作，深刻分析了当前经济形势，并对2 026年经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Politburo meeting in December set the tone for the macro - policies in 2026, with the economy in 2025 expected to achieve its main goals. In 2026, the economy may face challenges, and the estimated growth rate under the neutral assumption is 4.8%. Fiscal policy should be more proactive with a suggested deficit rate of 4.5% - 5% and a broad - based deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion. Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with expected interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts [5][8][10]. - Nearly 20 regions have issued the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, focusing on constructing government debt management mechanisms, resolving hidden debts, establishing local balance sheets, and promoting the transformation of financing platforms. It is expected that over 90% of platforms will complete their exit by the end of 2026 [5][15]. - This week, 5 urban investment enterprises declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, 23 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, and 2 urban investment bonds cancelled their issuance [19][22][23]. - The issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds and urban investment bonds both decreased this week. The special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2025 have all been issued [5][24][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Important News Review 3.1.1. Politburo Meeting Emphasizes Policy Coordination - The Politburo meeting in December analyzed the economic work in 2026, stating that the economy in 2025 will achieve its main goals. In 2026, more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies will be implemented, with an emphasis on policy coordination and the integration of stock and incremental policies [7][8][10]. - It is suggested that the deficit rate in 2026 be raised to 4.5% - 5%, and the broad - based deficit scale exceed 16 trillion. The monetary policy will arrange one interest rate cut and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts, and expand the scope of special re - loans [10]. - The key economic work in 2026 includes "domestic demand - led", "people's livelihood as the top priority", and the position of "risk prevention" has dropped to the last [13]. 3.1.2. "15th Five - Year Plan" Suggestions on Local Debt Management - Nearly 20 regions have issued "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, focusing on four aspects: constructing government debt management mechanisms, resolving hidden debts, establishing local balance sheets, and promoting the transformation of financing platforms [15]. - Most regions aim to resolve local government debt risks, and it is expected that over 90% of platforms will complete their exit by the end of 2026 [15][17]. 3.1.3. Tracking of Urban Investment Enterprises' "Exit from Platforms" - This week, 5 urban investment enterprises declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, with the majority being AA + rated and from prefecture - level and district - county levels [19]. 3.1.4. Prepayment of Bond Principal and Interest by Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 23 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, involving 23 bonds with a total scale of 34.02 billion yuan [22]. 3.1.5. Cancellation of Urban Investment Bond Issuance - This week, 2 urban investment bonds cancelled their issuance, with a planned total issuance scale of 6 billion yuan. As of December 7, 101 urban investment bonds have postponed or cancelled their issuance this year, with a total scale of 645.28 billion yuan [23]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds 3.2.1. Local Government Bonds - The issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds decreased this week. The special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2025 have all been issued. The total issuance scale was 1087.17 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 604.93 billion yuan [24]. - As of December 7, the cumulative issuance of new bonds (excluding special bonds for small and medium - sized banks) was 52253.78 billion yuan, completing 100.49% of the annual new quota [24]. 3.2.2. Urban Investment Bonds - The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds decreased this week. The total issuance scale was 878.19 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was - 7.11 billion yuan [29]. - The overall issuance interest rate was 2.20%, a decrease of 1.60BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 70.92BP, a decrease of 0.09BP [29]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 6638 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 15118 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 8480 billion yuan [33]. - The short - term capital interest rates mostly declined this week [33]. - There were no adjustments to the urban investment ratings and no urban investment credit risk events this week [33]. - The trading scale of local government bonds increased by 29.40% to 5086.82 billion yuan, and most of the maturity yields increased [35]. - The trading scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 6.61% to 2707.68 billion yuan, and most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 4.05BP [35]. - There were 9 abnormal transactions of 5 bonds from 5 urban investment entities this week, with a decrease in the number of entities and bonds compared to last week [35]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 51 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc. [38].

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and plans to implement a rural and urban resident income increase plan as a priority for 2026 economic tasks [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The 2026 economic strategy will focus on increasing urban and rural residents' income through multiple channels to enhance consumption capacity and stimulate effective demand [2]. - The policy aims to combine "investment in goods" and "investment in people" to create an endogenous growth model driven by domestic demand and consumption [3]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - Recent data shows significant growth in retail sales of household appliances and communication devices, with year-on-year increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% respectively for the first 11 months of the year [2]. - The shift in consumption patterns indicates a move towards equal emphasis on goods and service consumption, with service consumption expected to be a key focus in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - To unlock consumer potential, there is a need to enhance investment in consumer infrastructure such as parking lots, charging stations, and healthcare services, which will support consumption structure upgrades [3]. - The policy will also focus on increasing the proportion of investment in livelihood-related sectors to support consumption growth [3].

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial production growth rate was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with a deeper decline compared to the previous period[11] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3%, which is a decrease of approximately 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[11] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points in growth rate[18] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point[18] - Real estate development investment from January to November was 78,591 billion yuan, down 15.9%, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points[19] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5%, indicating that the decline in automobile consumption negatively impacted overall consumer performance[25] - The growth rate of retail sales in urban areas was 1.0%, while rural areas saw a growth of 2.8%[21] - Consumption of furniture, building materials, and jewelry saw significant declines, with automobile consumption experiencing a deepening drop[22] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain stable economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[28] - Policies will include increasing central budget investment and implementing measures to stabilize investment and consumption[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic market as a strategic foundation for China's modernization, with the central economic work conference prioritizing "domestic demand-led growth" as the top task for the upcoming year [1] - Over the past four years, despite various challenges, China's economy has maintained an average growth rate of 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% to this growth, highlighting the critical role of a robust domestic market [1] - China's large population and complete industrial system position it as the world's largest and most potential consumer market, with a per capita GDP exceeding $10,000 [3] Group 2 - The government has implemented special actions to boost consumption, including a vehicle trade-in policy that has led to over 10 million applications for subsidies, reflecting the vibrant activity in the consumer market [6] - In the first eleven months of the year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing at a faster rate of 5.4%, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [8] - The ice and snow industry in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, showcasing the potential for growth in this sector and the importance of balancing supply and demand [13] Group 3 - Recent policies aim to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment, which is expected to improve the efficiency of the domestic market [17] - The focus on expanding employment and increasing household income is crucial for driving demand, while technological innovation is essential for upgrading industries and creating new demand [14] - The commitment to transforming the advantages of a large-scale market into competitive advantages will continuously release the growth potential of the Chinese economy [19]

第二，坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，更好发挥消费拉动作用。加快完善"能消费"、"敢消 费"、"愿消费"的政策环境，完善扩大消费长效机制。促进高质量充分就业，完善收入分配制度，实施 城乡居民增收计划，增强居民消费能力。稳步推进基本公共服务均等化，完善教育、托育、养老、住 房、医疗保障体系，消除消费后顾之忧。深入实施提振消费专项行动，扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培 育服务消费新增长点，推动商品消费扩容升级，拓展入境消费。完善促进消费制度机制，强化消费者权 益保护，创造良好消费环境。 新华社北京12月17日电 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提 出："促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。"这是关系中国式现代化战略全 局的重大部署，对于提升宏观经济治理效能、促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。 近年来，我国持续实施扩大内需战略，国内需求对经济增长的主引擎作用持续巩固，国内国际双循 环格局加快形成，为未来5年经济高质量发展打下良好基础。同时，国际环境和国内条件发生深刻复杂 变化，经济运行也面临一些挑战，迫切需要促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展 模式。一是推动 ...

第三，加快提升创新能力，更大激发内生增长动力。加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关。推动科 技创新和产业创新深度融合。统筹国家战略科技力量建设，强化体系化攻关能力。强化国际科技 创新中心策源功能，营造具有全球竞争力的开放创新生态。着力构建自主可控、安全高效的产业 链供应链，优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。一体推进教育科技人才发展，更 大激发创新创造活力。深入推进数字中国建设，推动平台经济创新和健康发展。 同时，更好发挥经济体制改革牵引作用，完善市场经济基础制度，增强宏观政策取向一致性，健 全预期管理机制，提升宏观经济治理效能。进一步拓展双向投资合作空间，推动贸易创新发展， 扩大高水平对外开放，促进提升国内大循环质量和水平。 第一，健全投融资体制机制，着力扩大有效投资。深化投资审批制度改革，进一步明确中央和地 方投资方向和重点。优化政府投资结构，高质量推进国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力项目 建设。发挥政府资金引导带动作用，撬动社会资本参与新型基础设施、新型城镇化等重大工程和 补短板领域建设。完善民营企业参与重大项目长效机制，激发民间投资活力、提高民间投资比 重，增强市场主导的有效投资增长动力。着力促 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong sportswear stocks have been active recently, with Li Ning leading the gains, reflecting positive market sentiment driven by government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [1] - Li Ning's stock price increased by approximately 5%, with a cumulative rise of over 11% in the past four days, reaching a new high in over three months [1] - Other companies such as Anta Sports, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Xtep International also saw stock price increases of nearly 2%, 1.5%, and 1.4% respectively, indicating a broader positive trend in the sector [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11 emphasized the importance of domestic demand and building a strong domestic market as key tasks for economic work in 2026 [1] - Analysts believe that the consumption outlook for the apparel industry may continue to improve due to substantial policy support for end-consumer spending and expectations of rising household income [1] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a rebound in export performance, aided by recent improvements in US-China tariff policies, which is contributing to a recovery in the export chain's overall health [1]

中国银河证券指出，对于纺织服饰这一可选消费属性较强的板块而言，政策端对终端消费的实质性补贴 和居民收入预期的改善将直接提振消费信心。值得注意的是，随中美关税政策优化，近期纺织服装出口 环比好转，带动出口链景气度回升。 消息上，12月11日召开的中央经济工作会议明确2026年经济工作重点任务为「坚持内需主导，建设强大 国内市场」。分析人士认为，服装行业的消费预期或持续向好。 近日港股体育用品股持续活跃，目前李宁涨近5%领衔，近4日累计涨幅超11%并且创逾3个月新高，安 踏体育、裕元集团涨近2%，特步国际涨1.4%，361度涨超1%，本间高尔夫、滔搏跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02331 | 李宁 | 19.180 | 4.87% | | 02020 | 安踏体育 | 83.150 | 1.84% | | 00551 | 裕元集团 | 18.200 | 1.51% | | 01368 | 特步国际 | 5.590 | 1.45% | | 01361 | 361度 | 6.010 | 1.18% | | 06858 | 本间高尔 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 华西证券指出，对于股市而言，科技轮动缺位时，关注消费板块高低切逻辑。进入12月，市场追高科技 的意愿有所下降，而资金仍在尝试突围。在这种情况下，高低切逻辑有望受到关注。从11月经济数据来 看，消费增速放缓，考虑到中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导"列为2026年重点任务的首位，市场或将 博弈政策加码的预期。同时，红利板块从11月14日开始调整，截至今日累计下跌5.95%，从924以来的 历史经验来看，潜在跌幅或有限。新能源逻辑相对扎实，但在11月21日大跌后尚未明显修复，同样是值 得关注的方向。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...