Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market is gradually realizing the "weak reality" market expectation. Short - term logic is dominated by negative factors, with low - level fluctuations expected for short - term crude oil prices. SC is weaker than the external market due to domestic warehouse receipt pressure and weak demand. If OPEC+ further signals an increase in production and US inventories continue to accumulate, the oil price center may continue to decline [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On October 15, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel to 443.7 yuan/barrel, a 1.09% decline, showing a five - day consecutive decline. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 58.59 dollars/barrel and 62.28 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread narrowed from 0.54 dollars/barrel to 0, and the SC - WTI spread decreased from 4.23 dollars/barrel to 3.69 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened from - 1.5 yuan/barrel to - 3.8 yuan/barrel, indicating concerns about future supply pressure. Crude oil - related warehouse receipts remained unchanged, suggesting no significant change in short - term delivery willingness [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply**: Libya's oil revenue in the first nine months reached 7.94 billion Libyan dinars, indicating continued production recovery. Pemex in Mexico reached a salary - increase agreement with the union, potentially reducing production interruption risks. However, UK sanctions on Russian oil companies may intensify geopolitical supply disruptions [3]. - **Demand**: US API data showed an unexpected 2.99 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory (expected a decrease of 0.838 million barrels), reflecting weak terminal fuel demand. Refined oil inventory decreased more than expected (- 4.79 million barrels) due to industrial demand support. India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil may suppress Asian market sentiment in the short term, but actual implementation will take time [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since February 2025, and Cushing's inventory pressure rose, indicating a loose supply - demand situation in the US. China's SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.4 million barrels, strengthening the expectation of inventory accumulation in the Asian market [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, the SC price dropped to 443.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.09% decline; WTI dropped to 58.30 dollars/barrel, a 0.49% decline; Brent rose to 62.47 dollars/barrel, a 0.31% increase. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged; Brent, Dubai, and ESPO prices increased, while Oman, Victory, and Duri prices decreased. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent, SC - WTI spreads decreased, while Brent - WTI spread increased. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened significantly. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased, the S&P 500 increased, the DAX index decreased, and the RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. - **Inventory and Operation**: US commercial crude oil inventory, strategic reserve inventory, and API inventory increased, while Cushing's inventory decreased. The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: - **Futures Prices**: FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil prices decreased. - **Spot Prices**: Most fuel oil spot prices remained stable, with some increasing slightly and the Russian M100 arrival price decreasing. - **Spreads**: Singapore and China's high - low sulfur spreads, LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S), and FU - Singapore 380CST spreads decreased. - **Platts and Inventory**: Platts (380CST) and Platts (180CST) prices decreased, and Singapore's inventory decreased [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: US API crude oil imports from October 4 - 10 decreased. Mexico's Pemex reached a 4.5% salary - increase agreement with the union. Libya's oil revenue in the first nine months reached 7.94 billion Libyan dinars [8][9]. - **Demand**: India's oil import value in September reached 1.4 billion dollars [10]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory from October 4 - 10 increased by 7.36 million barrels, the largest increase since February 7, 2025. API refined oil inventory decreased more than expected, and API gasoline inventory increased unexpectedly. Crude oil and fuel - related warehouse receipts remained mostly unchanged [11]. - **Market Information**: India promised to stop importing Russian oil, but implementation will take time. US Bank warned that Brent oil prices may fall below $50. The UK will impose sanctions on Russian oil companies. OPEC Secretary - General predicted that oil will still account for 30% of the global energy structure by 2050 [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories [15][17][19] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On the week of October 12, global on - shore crude oil inventories, floating storage inventories, and full - scope (including in - transit) inventories all increased. The full - scope (including in - transit) inventory has been rising for five consecutive weeks and is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. In terms of on - shore inventory by region, China's inventory decreased, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East all rebounded [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Trends** - Global on - shore, floating storage, and full - scope (including in - transit) crude oil inventories increased in the week of October 12, with the full - scope inventory rising for five consecutive weeks and reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years [2]. - **Regional On - shore Inventory Changes** - China's on - shore crude oil inventory decreased [2]. - On - shore crude oil inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East increased [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

Core Insights - The API crude oil inventory in the U.S. decreased by 3.674 million barrels for the week ending September 26, compared to a previous decrease of 3.821 million barrels [1] Group 1 - The current week's inventory reduction indicates a continued trend of declining crude oil stocks in the U.S. [1] - The decrease in inventory may suggest increasing demand or supply constraints in the oil market [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI Main Contract: Opened at $63.64, closed at $64.81, with a high of $65.05, a low of $63.25, a daily increase of 2.21%, and a trading volume of 26.19 million barrels [6] - Brent Main Contract: Opened at $67.17, closed at $68.26, with a high of $68.51, a low of $66.79, a daily increase of 1.93%, and a trading volume of 39.14 million barrels [6] - SC Main Contract: Opened at 486.3 yuan/barrel, closed at 490.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 491.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 485.8 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.72%, and a trading volume of 8.26 million barrels [6] - Core View: Due to continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities by Ukraine, overnight oil prices rose. EIA data showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories declined simultaneously, and the pace of crude oil destocking slowed after net imports returned to normal. EIA and IEA raised their global crude oil supply forecasts in their monthly reports, with the expected pace of inventory accumulation accelerating. Oil prices will remain under pressure in the medium term, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. The restart of the Ceyhan pipeline may further pressure the supply side, so short on rallies [6] Group 3: Industry News - The European Commission will propose a plan to increase tariffs on Russian oil imports in due course [9] - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development expects Brent crude oil prices to reach $70 per barrel from 2026 to 2027 [9] - Oil exports through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline are about to resume [9] - Saudi Arabia's oil export value in July decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, while non - oil exports increased by 30.4% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][11][14][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA report is a mixed bag. Real - time indicators are relatively positive, with inventories of crude oil and refined products all decreasing and the decline in refinery operating rate being limited. However, leading indicators are persistently weak, with terminal demand remaining poor. The lackluster performance of distillates during the peak season may speed up autumn maintenance, offsetting the positive impact of inventory data. Despite the short - term upward trend in oil prices after the report release, the upward potential of oil prices is limited due to weak forward - looking indicators [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - As of September 19, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 414.754 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 607,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 177,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 230,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 200,000 barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels. The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain decreased by 244,000 barrels [2][3] Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day. Crude oil net imports increased by 1.596 million barrels per day to 2.011 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day to 16.476 million barrels per day. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 93.0% [3] Terminal Demand Data - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 205,250 barrels per day to 20.46575 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 70,250 barrels per day to 8.8485 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillates decreased by 100,750 barrels per day to 3.626 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased by 57,500 barrels per day to 1.64525 million barrels per day. Terminal demand for refined products remains poor [3][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The significant increase in US crude oil exports has led to a substantial reduction in crude oil inventories, but the weekly export volume fluctuates greatly. Refinery crude oil input has begun to decline continuously, and refineries will enter the maintenance season later, resulting in a temporary decline in demand. Distillate inventories have been increasing since reaching the lowest point of the year in July, with a significantly faster growth rate than the same period in previous years. Diesel consumption is weak, and the 4th quarter is about to enter the consumption peak season, so the later changes should be monitored. The data is slightly bearish. EIA and IEA have raised the global crude oil supply forecast in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. Oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium term, and the main strategy is to hold a bearish view. In operation, short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. Grouped by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $62.30, closing price was $62.34, highest price was $63, lowest price was $61.61, with a decline of 0.10% and a trading volume of 20.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.98, closing price was $66.01, highest price was $66.67, lowest price was $65.35, with a decline of 0.05% and a trading volume of 29.58 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.6 yuan/barrel, closing price was 473.1 yuan/barrel, highest price was 478.7 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 471.6 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 2.29% and a trading volume of 10.21 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main strategy is to hold a bearish view on oil prices in the medium term, and short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. 2. Industry News - Kuwait's oil minister stated that Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [7]. - According to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day month-on-month in July, dropping to 9.201 million barrels per day [7]. - Market news indicated that Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, oil prices initially strengthened due to market pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical tensions, but then sharply corrected as the rate cut met expectations, the dollar index rebounded, and there were no more geopolitical positives. Brent's main contract fluctuated between $65 - 67 per barrel. The oil price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Upside risks come from geopolitical risk escalation, and downside risks come from increased recession expectations [4]. - Unilateral trading: Expect a weak and volatile trend. Arbitrage: Domestic gasoline and diesel cracks are weak. Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - At the beginning of last week, influenced by the expected Fed rate cut and geopolitical tensions, oil prices were strong. After the Fed cut rates by 25BP, the dollar index rebounded, and oil prices corrected significantly. By the weekend, Brent's main contract fell to around $66 per barrel [4]. - In terms of supply and demand, OPEC increased production in August and September. The end of the peak demand season in the Middle East, the weakening of the Dubai spread, and the high volume of crude oil shipments all indicate rising supply pressure. Crude oil satellite inventories increased in late September, and there may be an inventory build - up in Q3 and Q4. In the short term, overseas refined oil demand is stable, and refinery profits support crude oil procurement demand. There is still room for the overseas diesel crack spread to ferment at the end of the year [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Weak and volatile [5]. - Arbitrage: Domestic gasoline and diesel cracks are weak [5]. - Options: Wait - and - see [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Macro - The Fed cut rates by 25BP, which did not exceed market expectations. Macro risk appetite cooled. The yields of short - and long - term US Treasuries rebounded, and the dollar index rebounded from 96.6 to around 97.6 [8][9]. - The Fed's dot - plot median shows that it expects to cut rates two more times this year, one more time than the June expectation [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - Russian oil exports decreased by 934,000 barrels per day in the week ending September 14, the largest decline since July last year. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports and energy facilities affected oil exports [15]. - In the week of September 19, the number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 418. In the week of September 12, US crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day [18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In 2024, the global crude oil inventory decreased by 71.09 million barrels year - on - year. In Q1, the full - scale inventory increased by 890,000 barrels per day, and in Q2, the global satellite inventory increased by 1.05 million barrels per day. As of September 17 in Q3, the satellite inventory showed an increase of 4,400 barrels per day [22]. 3.2.4 Balance - The IEA slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will increase by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. The balance sheet still points to a significant surplus in the long - term [25]. 3.2.5 Spot Market - The Middle East market weakened, with the Dubai swap first - to - third - line spread falling from over $3 per barrel to around $2.6 per barrel. The North Sea market stabilized, with DFL rebounding from less than $0.5 per barrel to around $0.65 per barrel, and EFS rebounding to around $0.45 per barrel [27][29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: Data on the prices and spreads of Brent, WTI, and Dubai are presented [33]. - **Crude Oil Spot**: Data on the spot prices and spreads of European, West African, Middle Eastern, Mediterranean, and North American crude oils are provided [36][40][45]. - **US Weekly Crude Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on US crude oil production, feedstock volume, imports, and exports are presented [48]. - **EIA Weekly Data**: Data on US refinery operations, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel production, inventory, and net imports are provided [51][55][58][61]. - **US Weekly Crude Oil Inventory**: Data on US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, and strategic inventory are presented [64][66]. - **Crude Oil Floating Storage**: Data on global, Asian, European, and West African crude oil floating storage are provided [69][70][71][73]. - **European Refined Oil Inventory**: Data on ARA gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil inventories are presented [80][82][84]. - **Singapore and Middle East Refined Oil Inventory**: Data on Fujeirah and Singapore's heavy, medium, and light refined oil inventories are presented [86]. - **Tanker Freight**: Data on the freight rates of heavy - oil tankers on different routes are presented [89]. - **Cracking and Profits**: In Northwest Europe, diesel cracking strengthened, and gasoline cracking strengthened slowly. In the Asia - Pacific region, diesel cracking remained high, gasoline cracking strengthened, and naphtha cracking was strong. In North America, diesel cracking strengthened. In China, domestic refined - oil crack spreads weakened overall but rebounded near the weekend, and the export profits of gasoline and diesel continued to rise [93][100][107][118]. - **Oil Price vs. Position**: Data on the relationship between Brent, WTI, gasoil, RBOB, and HO prices and their managed - money net positions are presented [119][122][125].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released on September 22, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - It provides price data from September 15 - 19, 2025, for various oil - related products and analyzes daily news, regional fundamentals, and presents a weekly view [3][5][6] Group 2: Price Data Changes Crude Oil and Related Products - WTI decreased by $0.89 from September 15 - 19, 2025; BRENT decreased by $0.76; DUBAI decreased by $0.35 [3] - SC decreased by 4.80; OMAN decreased by 1.30 [3] Refined Oil and Other Products - Domestic gasoline decreased by $50.00; domestic diesel decreased by $28.00 [3] - Japan naphtha CFR dropped by 2.95; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by 0.2 [3] Group 3: Daily News - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany [4] - Russia called the EU's reduction of Russian energy imports a "self - harm" behavior [4] - Cuba condemned the US for trying to seize Venezuela's resources through its actions in the Caribbean [5] - The UN Security Council vetoed the resolution to extend Iran's sanctions exemption, and sanctions may resume if no agreement is reached by September 27 [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 253.2 thousand barrels per day, while domestic production decreased by 1.3 thousand barrels [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels, a 2.19% decline [6] - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 504 thousand barrels, a 0.12% increase [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.69% year - on - year [6] - From September 12 - 18, the main refinery operating rate fluctuated, Shandong local refinery operating rate increased, domestic production of gasoline and diesel rose, and their inventories also increased [6] Group 5: Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at a high level, with fundamental and geopolitical factors diverging [6] - The EU's sanctions on Russia target shadow fleets, Russian banks, and oil buyers; Russian refined oil exports decreased by about 300 thousand barrels per day, while crude oil net exports increased by about 9% year - on - year [6] - Iranian crude oil exports did not decline; OPEC crude oil net exports increased by 11% year - on - year in September [6] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased significantly [6] - Global refinery profits were divided, with US refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery operating rates rising, and European and American refinery operating rates falling [6] - In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200 thousand barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 180 - 250 thousand barrels per day in 2026 [6] - It is expected that the absolute price center in Q4 will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [6]