Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's trade balance for May will be released at 07:50 [1] - Key Point 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - Key Point 3: RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Key Point 4: Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 5: France's trade balance for May will be available at 14:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 04:30 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report indicates a more relaxed fundamental outlook for the oil market, with adjustments in supply and demand forecasts from IEA, EIA, and OPEC for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3] Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 to be 10,488.00, 10,434.42, and 10,410.62 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases from 2024 of +182.72, +154.73, and +175.68 million barrels per day [2][32] - For 2026, the supply predictions are 10,603.04, 10,513.81, and 10,505.26 million barrels per day, reflecting increases from 2025 of +115.04, +79.39, and +94.64 million barrels per day [2][32] - The average change in global oil supply for Q2 2025 is forecasted to be +70.56 million barrels per day, a significant increase from previous predictions [2][27] Demand Overview - Global oil demand predictions for 2025 are 10,376.27, 10,352.80, and 10,513.49 million barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with year-on-year increases of +72.41, +78.67, and +129.49 million barrels per day [2][4] - For 2026, the demand forecasts are 10,450.19, 10,458.75, and 10,641.54 million barrels per day, indicating increases from 2025 of +73.92, +105.95, and +128.05 million barrels per day [2][4] Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals crude prices are $69.11, $67.45, $62.59, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with recent monthly changes of +6.93%, +7.89%, +3.54%, and 0.00% [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent crude at -8.98%, WTI at -7.77%, Russian ESPO at -13.01%, and Urals at -4.41% [9][10] Inventory Insights - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +111.73, +81.62, and -102.87 million barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +30.16 million barrels per day [3][27] - For 2026, the inventory changes are forecasted at +152.85, +55.06, and -136.28 million barrels per day, averaging +23.88 million barrels per day [1][27] Related Companies - The report highlights several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [4]

【美国原油供需情况及全球原油市场动态受关注】当周美国原油产量基本平稳，环比降0.2万桶/日，至 1343.3万桶/日；贝克休斯石油钻井数减6台，处于历史低位，显示页岩油产量增长动力不足。同时，美 国原油进口量环比增97.5万桶/日，出口量大减196.5万桶/日，净进口量显著增加。 需求方面，美国原油 表需小幅下行，但仍高于历史同期均值。炼厂加工量环比小幅增长，整体需求端表现符合旺季预期。 库存上，6月27日当周美国商业库存累库384.5万桶，因净进口量增加；库欣地区去库149.3万桶，需求地 PADD3库存累库504.2万桶。 成品油供应方面，上周炼厂开工率回升0.2%至94.9%，处于较高水平。美 国炼厂检修量低位，预计旺季开工率维持高位。 成品油消费端，表需环比基本平稳，各类油品走势分 化。出行方面，汽油需求大幅下降，航煤基本平稳；工业油品方面，馏分油和丙烷&丙烯表需均小幅上 升。七月暑期旅游旺季，高速行驶里程和坐飞机人数处于高位。 成品油库存方面，汽油累库418.8万 桶，因需求回落、产量增加；馏分燃料油去库171.0万桶，因需求持续走强。 全球原油市场，EIA数据 显示原油小幅累库，旺季需求符合预期。 ...

2025年1-5月份，中国自中东地区进口原油的占比份额为42.5%，较去年同期下降3.3个百分点，较过去 五年均值水平下降5.6个百分点；中国自亚太地区进口原油的占比份额为15.0%，较去年同期提升4.0个 百分点，较过去五年均值水平提升6.3个百分点。自南美地区进口原油的占比份额为10.1%，较去年同期 下降0.3个百分点，较过去五年均值水平提升0.9个百分点。 山东地炼一次常减压开工负荷50.74%，较上周下跌0.74个百分点。具体来看，本周华联进入检修期；昌 邑常减压装置开工，其他二次装置暂未开；京博负荷进一步提升；其他炼厂装置稳定。 【行情回顾】 截至7月3日，伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，市场对地缘局势不稳定性的担忧浮现，国际油价上涨。 NYMEX原油期货08合约67.45涨2.00美元/桶，环比+3.06%；ICE布油期货09合约69.11涨2.00美元/桶，环 比+2.98%。中国INE原油期货主力合约2508涨1.5至498.5元/桶，夜盘涨10.5至509元/桶。 【重要资讯】 建议观望为主，WTI上方阻力给到[67,68]，布伦特压力在[69,70]，SC在 [510,520]；期权端可以 ...

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存增加385万桶，彭博用户预计减少400万桶、分析师预 期减少269.200万桶，之前一周下降583.6万桶。 ...

美国至6月27日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

美国石油协会（API）数据显示，6月27日当周，美国API原油库存 +68万桶，之前一周 -427.7万桶。 ...

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 2, 2025, including U.S. API crude oil inventory and Eurozone unemployment rate [1] - It lists specific times for the release of various economic indicators, such as U.S. Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of EIA crude oil inventory data, including Cushing and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1]

Economic Data and Events - Key focus on economic events and data on July 1, including China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 09:45 [1] - The UK Nationwide House Price Index month-on-month change at 14:00 [1] - France's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 15:50 [1] - Germany's June Manufacturing PMI final value and seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 15:55 [1] - Eurozone's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:00 [1] - UK's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:30 [1] - Eurozone's June CPI at 17:00 [1] - US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value at 21:45 [1] - US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job openings, and May construction spending month-on-month change at 22:00 [1] - API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 28 at 04:30 the next day [1]

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/27 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/26 | 美元/桶 | 65.24 | 64.92 | 0.49% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/26 | 美元/桶 | 67.73 | 67.68 | 0.07% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/26 | 美元/吨 | 568.75 | 579.25 | -1.81% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/6/26 | | 美元/吨 | 725.00 | 726.50 | -0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/26 | 美元/吨 | 853.00 | 848.67 | 0.51% | | ...