1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly data shows that crude oil and oil products are mainly in a state of inventory accumulation. The single - week data is slightly bearish as the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products has increased seasonally at a high level [2][4] 3. Summary According to Related Data Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 405,000 barrels in the week ending December 19, 2025, compared with a decrease of 1.274 million barrels in the previous period [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 707,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 742,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 800,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 249,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.862 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.808 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US diesel inventory increased by 202,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 1.712 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US jet fuel inventory increased by 1.316 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.007 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US fuel oil inventory increased by 853,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 450,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - The inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.139 million barrels [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production was estimated to be 13.825 million barrels per day, a slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - US refined oil apparent demand was 20.31 million barrels per day, compared with 20.573 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.942 million barrels per day, compared with 9.078 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US diesel apparent demand was 4.156 million barrels per day, compared with 3.786 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 6.086 million barrels per day, compared with 6.525 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US crude oil exports were 3.616 million barrels per day, compared with 4.664 million barrels per day in the previous period. The net export of crude oil decreased by 609,000 barrels per day [4][6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.776 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.12 million barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - The US refinery utilization rate fell slightly from the high point to 94.6%, compared with 94.8% in the previous period [4][6]

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 CITIC Futures Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月28日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点继续回落，浮仓库存延续攀升。近期海外炼厂开工率高位运行，库存累积 主要在成品油端体现，原油累库压力有阶段性放缓的迹象。陆上库存分区域看，中国原油库存连续第8周回升，此外印度、俄罗斯库存回升，欧 中东库存回落。 洲、 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1: 全球陆上原油库存 35000000 3400000 3300000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 图表 2: 全球原油浮仓 150000 120000 90000 60000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 2024 -- 2023 2022 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the week of December 21, the global on - land crude oil inventory and the full - caliber (including in - transit) inventory declined from their highs, but the floating storage inventory continued to rise. The on - land inventory in China's major refineries increased for the fourth consecutive week as the refineries were at a low operating rate, while the inventories in India, Russia, the Middle East, and Europe all declined [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Trends** - Global on - land crude oil inventory and full - caliber (including in - transit) inventory dropped from their highs in the week of December 21, while floating storage inventory kept rising [1] - **Regional On - land Crude Oil Inventory** - **China**: The inventory of China's major refineries increased for the fourth consecutive week as the refineries were at a low operating rate [1] - **India, Russia, Middle East, Europe**: The inventories in these regions all declined [1]

2025-12-22 朗 货 有 限 公 司 浮仓库存走高，陆地库存回落 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源: Kpler 中信期货研究所 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月21日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点回落,但浮仓库存延续攀升。陆上库存分区域看,中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第4周回升,印度、俄罗斯、中东、欧洲库存均回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 千種 千瓶 3800000 270000 2400000 3700000 210000 3600000 1800000 150000 35000000 120000 3400000 90000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原油厂 E 4:全球陆如+海上(含在该)康波 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The average global crude oil inventory change for 2026 is projected to be +204.90 thousand barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC [2] - For Q4 2025, the average inventory change is expected to be +162.53 thousand barrels per day, showing a revision from previous forecasts [2] - Global crude oil supply for 2025 is forecasted at 10617.36, 10607.84, and 10470.71 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [2] - The global crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 10392.25, 10393.68, and 10513.66 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, reflecting a modest increase from 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil supply for 2026 to be 10865.02, 10742.59, and 10654.18 thousand barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2025 [2][35] - The Q4 2025 supply increase is projected at +414.30, +385.36, and +254.12 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [35] Oil Demand - The demand for 2026 is forecasted at 10478.51, 10516.87, and 10651.70 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a growth from 2025 [2][35] - The demand increase for Q4 2025 is expected to be +108.72, +130.72, and +152.22 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Oil Prices - As of December 18, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices are reported at 59.82, 56.00, 47.94, and 65.49 USD per barrel respectively, with significant declines observed over the year [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by -21.22%, WTI by -23.42%, and Russian ESPO by -33.37% [9][10] Oil Inventory - The global crude oil inventory change for 2025 is projected at +225.11, +214.16, and -42.95 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average increase of +132.11 thousand barrels per day [26] - The U.S. total crude oil inventory as of December 12, 2025, stands at 83658.8 thousand barrels, reflecting a slight increase [19][20]

原油成品油早报 ·市场消息：美国允许部分与伊朗相关的交易持续至1月18日 ·JODI：沙特10月原油出口量增加至710万桶/日 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/19 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/12/12 | 57.44 | 61.12 | 62.06 | 0.61 | 0.28 | -3.68 | 0.35 | 175.21 | 12.47 | 219.80 | 31.20 | | 2025/12/15 | 56.82 | 60.56 | 61.70 | 0.69 | 0.26 | -3.74 | 0.54 | 173.23 | 12.20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The actual de - stocking amplitude of US commercial crude oil in the week of December 12, 2025 was not much different from the previous data, despite factors like increased crude oil processing volume and net exports that favored accelerated de - stocking. The refinery operating rate continued to rise to 94.8%, a high for the same period. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products was at a high level for the same period. Overall, single - week data had limited indication for prices and continuously negatively affected gasoline and diesel crack spreads [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalog 3.1 Inventory Data Changes - US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.274 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.812 million barrels in the previous value [4][6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.742 million barrels, while the previous value was an increase of 0.308 million barrels [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 0.249 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.248 million barrels in the previous value [6]. - US gasoline inventory increased by 4.808 million barrels, while the previous value was a decrease of 6.397 million barrels [6]. - US diesel inventory increased by 1.712 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.502 million barrels in the previous value [6]. - US jet fuel inventory increased by 1.007 million barrels, while the previous value was a decrease of 1.376 million barrels [6]. - US fuel oil inventory increased by 0.45 million barrels, while the previous value was a decrease of 1.204 million barrels [6]. - The inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.139 million barrels, while the previous value was a decrease of 3.161 million barrels [6]. 3.2 Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels per day, compared with 13.853 million barrels per day in the previous value [6]. - US refined oil apparent demand was 20.573 million barrels per day, compared with 21.082 million barrels per day in the previous value [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand was 9.078 million barrels per day, compared with 8.456 million barrels per day in the previous value [6]. - US diesel apparent demand was 3.786 million barrels per day, compared with 4.158 million barrels per day in the previous value [6]. 3.3 Import, Export and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 6.525 million barrels per day, compared with 6.589 million barrels per day in the previous value [6]. - US crude oil exports were 4.664 million barrels per day, compared with 4.009 million barrels per day in the previous value [6]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.988 million barrels per day, compared with 16.86 million barrels per day in the previous value [6]. - US refinery operating rate was 94.8%, compared with 94.5% in the previous value [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price is expected to decrease by 155 yuan/ton, translating to a reduction of 0.12-0.14 yuan per liter, indicating a significant drop in oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The anticipated oil price drop has increased by 40 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, exceeding the downward threshold [1] - International oil prices have experienced four consecutive declines, with the potential for the current round of price drops to reach 200 yuan/ton if the trend continues [3] - Recent market performance shows that U.S. crude oil fell by 2.57% to $55.07 per barrel, while Brent crude also dropped by 2.57% to $58.82 per barrel [3] Group 2: Inventory and Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. API crude oil inventory report indicated a decrease of 9.322 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected reduction of 2.197 million barrels [3] - Gasoline inventories increased by 483.5 thousand barrels, surpassing the expected increase of 210 thousand barrels, highlighting weak demand signals [3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November slightly exceeded market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since September 2021, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [3] Group 3: Regional Fuel Prices - The upcoming oil price adjustment is scheduled for December 22 at 24:00, with specific regional prices for various fuel types provided [4][5][6]

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 陆地及浮仓库存快速攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 Futures Company Limited 研究员: 李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月14日当周，全球原油陆上及浮仓库存均快速攀升，创今年以来最高，同时为近5年同期最高。陆地库存分区域看，中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第3周回升,欧洲库存小幅反弹,印度、俄罗斯、中东库存下降。 风险提示: Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 I ZUUUU 3400000 90000 60000 3300000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 3: 全球陆地+浮仓原油库存 2022 - - 2023 2021 2025 2024 千桶 4100000 4000000 3900000 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current decline in the oil market is only supported by geopolitical factors, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, with oil prices continuing to move in a volatile manner [1][3]. - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is under continuous pressure, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is also facing pressure. It is expected that the current supply - driven market fundamentals may continue until January next year. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation for the time being [3]. - The winter storage price of asphalt is likely to fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, and the short - term view of the disk is low - level oscillation [3][5]. - The price of PX is expected to be under pressure at the end of the year. The price of TA is expected to follow the cost and be under pressure, and the price center will decline. The price of ethylene glycol is under pressure, and the premium of the 05 contract over the 01 contract has widened [5]. - The rubber futures price has a small rebound due to the improvement of overseas production area weather, border conflicts affecting tapping work, and the rebound of raw material prices, but the demand support is limited [6]. - The methanol price has an upper limit, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. - The polyolefin market will gradually shift from strong supply to weak demand, but as the valuation decreases, it is expected to tend to bottom - level oscillation [8]. - The PVC price is driven by a bearish fundamental situation, but as the basis has been repaired, it is expected to tend to bottom - level oscillation [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price showed a V - shape during the session. The WTI January contract closed up $0.21 to $58.46 per barrel, a gain of 0.36%. The Brent February contract closed up $0.27 to $62.21 per barrel, a gain of 0.44%. SC2601 closed at 440.5 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.86%. The EIA inventory report showed that due to strong refining activities, last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending December 5, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 2.3 million barrels. The crude oil inventory at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma increased by 308,000 barrels to 21.6 million barrels. U.S. net crude oil imports increased by 212,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan's early - December oil production decline slowed down. The situation in Ukraine and the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker may affect the oil market [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, closed down 0.65% at 2,427 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2602, closed down 0.17% at 3,009 yuan per ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is under continuous pressure, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is also facing pressure. It is expected that the current supply - driven market fundamentals may continue until January next year [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2602, closed down 0.24% at 2,940 yuan per ton. The social inventory rate this week was 23.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%; the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 27.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 33.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%. It is estimated that the winter storage price of asphalt this year will probably fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, and the predicted winter storage price is between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,616 yuan per ton yesterday, down 0.6%; the spot offer was at a discount of 20 yuan per ton to the 01 contract. EG2601 closed at 3,682 yuan per ton yesterday, down 0.24%, and the basis increased by 10 yuan per ton to - 13 yuan per ton, with the spot price at 3,668 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,746 yuan per ton, down 0.5%. The spot negotiation price was $832 per ton, equivalent to 6,785 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 27 yuan per ton to 19 yuan per ton. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average sales estimate of 60% - 70%. The restart time of a 1 - million - ton - per - year MEG plant in East China has been postponed for several months. A 550,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China has been shut down for maintenance recently and is expected to restart at the end of December. A 300,000 - ton polyester filament and a 250,000 - ton staple fiber plant in Xiaoshan have been shut down for maintenance recently [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber, RU2605, rose 230 yuan per ton to 15,215 yuan per ton; the main contract of NR rose 190 yuan per ton to 12,270 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 155 yuan per ton to 10,605 yuan per ton. Due to the situation on the Thai - Cambodian border, it is expected that the daily production of rubber dry glue will decrease by 487,000 kilograms [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,078 yuan per ton, the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 1,980 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $241 - 245 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $315 - 320 per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. The port inventory is expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year, but due to the slow unloading rhythm, the time for significant destocking may be postponed. Considering that the price of downstream polyolefins is difficult to rise significantly, the methanol price has an upper limit and is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was between 6,150 - 6,400 yuan per ton. The production profit of oil - based PP was - 586.43 yuan per ton, the production profit of coal - based PP was - 604.53 yuan per ton, the production profit of methanol - based PP was - 1,168 yuan per ton, the production profit of propane - dehydrogenated PP was - 1,474.42 yuan per ton; the production profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP was - 519.93 yuan per ton. In terms of PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,881 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 8,614 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 6,833 yuan per ton. The supply will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and operating rates will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will tend to bottom - level oscillation [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China decreased. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was between 4,300 - 4,420 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was around 4,400 - 4,600 yuan per ton; the market price of PVC in North China was weakly adjusted, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material around 4,220 - 4,380 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material around 4,600 - 4,700 yuan per ton; the market price of PVC in South China decreased, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material around 4,340 - 4,480 yuan per ton, and the mainstream offer of ethylene - based material between 4,460 - 4,650 yuan per ton. Some plants are planned to reduce their loads this week, and the production is expected to decrease slightly. The domestic real estate construction will gradually slow down, and the operating rates of subsequent pipes and profiles will also gradually decline. The PVC price is expected to tend to bottom - level oscillation [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on December 10 and 9, as well as the price changes and basis rate changes of these products [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that due to strong refining activities, last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending December 5, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 2.3 million barrels. The crude oil inventory at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma increased by 308,000 barrels to 21.6 million barrels. U.S. net crude oil imports increased by 212,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day [11]. - U.S. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. seized an oil tanker near Venezuela. Earlier, two U.S. officials revealed that the U.S. seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, and the operation was led by the U.S. Coast Guard [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][23][24][25][27][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [30][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of various energy - chemical product contracts, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][42][43][44][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [58][59][60][61][62][64][66][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of the energy - chemical department, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" award from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Award from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst Award from the Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024 [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy - Chemical Analyst Award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst title from the Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has a master's degree in finance. She has won the "New - Star Analyst" award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from the "China Mold Information" magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from the Futures Daily in 2024 [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC. He has a master's degree in engineering and is an intermediate economist. He has won the Excellent Author award from the "China Mold Information" magazine in 2024 [75].