9月15日，国新办召开新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在会上表示，受国内外 形势变化影响，前8个月房地产市场虽有所波动，但商品房销售和住宅价格同比降幅在收窄，去库存成效继续显现，房地产市场 仍朝着止跌回稳方向迈进。 商品房待售面积连续6个月减少 8月70个大中城市中，多数城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅有所收窄，其中一、二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比降幅比 上月分别收窄0.2、0.4和0.5个百分点；二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格同比降幅均收窄0.4个百分点。 环比看，各线城市商品住宅销售价格下降态势仍未扭转，但部分城市出现环比降幅收窄情况。 比如在新房市场，8月一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点，其中，上海上涨0.4%，北京、广州和深 圳分别下降0.4%、0.2%和0.4%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点。 前8月房地产市场呈现市场销售降幅收窄，新房价格环比上涨城市增加、同比降幅收窄等积极信号。 9月15日，国家统计局公布前8月房地产数据。1-8月，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，降幅比去年同期 ...

21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 前8月房地产市场呈现市场销售降幅收窄，新房价格环比上涨城市增加、同比降幅收窄等积 极信号。 9月15日，国家统计局公布前8月房地产数据。1-8月，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，降幅比去年同期收窄13.3个百分 点，比去年全年收窄8.2个百分点。商品房销售额下降7.3%，降幅比去年同期收窄16.3个百分点，比去年全年收窄9.8个百分点。 在房价方面，8月70个大中城市中，上海、杭州、沈阳、合肥、南宁、西宁、乌鲁木齐、吉林、宜昌这9个城市新房价格环比上 涨，上涨城市数量较7月增加3个。同时，70城中多数城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅有所收窄。 9月15日，国新办召开新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在会上表示，受国内外 形势变化影响，前8个月房地产市场虽有所波动，但商品房销售和住宅价格同比降幅在收窄，去库存成效继续显现，房地产市场 仍朝着止跌回稳方向迈进。 商品房待售面积连续6个月减少 比如在新房市场，8月一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点，其中，上海上涨0.4%，北京、广州和深 圳分别下降0.4%、0. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese economy** and its current challenges, particularly focusing on the economic performance in July 2025 and projections for the remainder of the year [1][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Slowdown**: In July, domestic growth momentum weakened significantly, with retail sales growth slowing to **3.7%** year-on-year, below market expectations [1][5]. 2. **Investment Decline**: Overall fixed asset investment decreased by **5.2%** year-on-year, with both infrastructure and manufacturing investments declining [1][10]. 3. **Real Estate Market**: Real estate activities continued to decline, with sales down **7.8%** year-on-year and new construction area down **15.4%** [6][26]. 4. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production growth fell to **5.7%** year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing output [1][12]. 5. **Export Recovery**: Despite a decline in exports to the US, overall export growth improved to **7.2%** year-on-year, supported by lower base effects [1][11]. 6. **Inflation Metrics**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate fell to **0%**, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by **3.6%** year-on-year [1][17]. 7. **Credit Market**: July saw a contraction in new RMB loans for the first time in 20 years, with a reduction of **500 billion RMB**, indicating weak credit demand [1][18]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Policy Measures**: The government has introduced several support measures, including childcare subsidies and consumer loan interest subsidies, but the scale of these measures is expected to be moderate [3][32]. 2. **Future Challenges**: The economic outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued challenges in the real estate sector and consumer spending due to weak income growth and consumer confidence [2][27]. 3. **Trade Relations**: Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to prolong tariff uncertainties, which may negatively impact export growth in the coming months [22][24]. 4. **Government Stimulus**: Potential fiscal stimulus measures may be introduced in Q3 or Q4, depending on economic data trends, with a baseline GDP growth forecast of **4.7%** for 2025 [3][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges it faces, and the government's response to these challenges.

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves is accelerating, significantly aiding the land acquisition process and contributing to the stabilization of the real estate market [1][4]. Group 1: Special Bonds Issuance - Ningbo City has listed special bonds for land reserves with a total issuance amount of 4.339 billion yuan, marking a significant step in the acceleration of land reserve bond issuance [1]. - As of May 27, 171 cities have announced land acquisition plans, with a total acquisition amount of 391.8 billion yuan, involving 6,565 hectares of land [1][2]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has become a major growth point in supporting the real estate sector, with Zhejiang Province issuing a total of 19.187 billion yuan for various projects [3]. Group 2: Regional Focus - Among the 31 provinces and municipalities, 23 have announced plans to use special bonds for land acquisition, with Guangdong Province leading at over 65 billion yuan [1][2]. - The majority of land acquisition plans are concentrated in third and fourth-tier cities, which account for 84% of the total planned acquisition area [2]. - Cities like Zhengzhou and Chongqing are highlighted for their significant potential land inventory, necessitating faster land acquisition processes [2]. Group 3: Market Implications - The acceleration of land reserve special bonds is seen as a crucial measure to alleviate liquidity pressures on local governments and real estate companies [3][4]. - The current issuance of land reserve special bonds is still below market expectations, with only 123.6 billion yuan issued by May 25, representing 8.4% of the total issuance [3]. - There is an expectation for the scale of land reserve special bonds to expand further in the second half of the year, with potential adjustments to acquisition amounts [4].

Core Insights - The real estate market is stabilizing, with operational assets being revalued first [1][3] - The market remains volatile, with both transaction volume and prices declining [4][5] - Policy measures are focused on land acquisition and old housing renovation [48][50] - Recovery is expected to take time, with adjustments nearing the bottom [4][5] Market Overview - In H1 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, showing a narrowing decline of 15.5 percentage points [4][15] - The sales area in 43 monitored cities reached 68.545 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 9.1%, a significant improvement from previous periods [4][29] - The second-hand housing market showed a positive trend, with a sales area of 48.465 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [4][29] Policy Measures - The government is implementing dual strategies of land acquisition and old housing renovation to stabilize the market [48][50] - As of mid-July 2025, the scale of land acquisition exceeded 480 billion yuan, with a steady increase in the issuance of special bonds [56][58] - Policies are aimed at reducing purchase barriers, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [64] Market Outlook - The annual incremental housing demand is estimated at approximately 950 million square meters, with expected sales area in 2025 projected at 900 million square meters [4][5] - The rental yield and risk-free return rates have normalized, providing a foundation for price stabilization [4][5] - Sales area, sales amount, new starts, completions, and investment are expected to decline year-on-year by 7.8%, 7.2%, 11.8%, 10.5%, and 9.8% respectively [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on financially stable and high-quality real estate companies, including China Resources Land (1109.HK) and Longfor Group (0960.HK) for development, and Poly Property (6049.HK) for property management [4][5]

Core Insights - The real estate industry has officially entered a new phase of "de-inventory" since the "430" Politburo meeting last year, which proposed a comprehensive study on digesting existing housing stock [1] - Various policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges, commodity housing storage, and "housing vouchers" have been implemented, alongside controlled new housing supply, leading to a continued decline in housing inventory [1] Inventory Trends - As of June 2025, the narrow inventory in 50 key cities decreased by 7% year-on-year, with over 70% of these cities experiencing a decline in inventory size [2][3] - Chengdu saw the largest decline in narrow inventory, with a 45% year-on-year drop, while cities like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, and Lanzhou also reported declines exceeding 20% [2][3] - However, cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing still face de-inventory cycles exceeding 18 months, indicating ongoing pressure [2][4] Inventory and De-inventory Cycle - By mid-2025, the narrow inventory scale in key cities was 309 million square meters, with a de-inventory cycle of 21.82 months, both showing declines of over 5% [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanchang, and Shanghai have de-inventory cycles below 18 months, with improvements compared to the previous year [4] Area Segment Analysis - The de-inventory difficulty varies by area segment, with cities like Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing showing high de-inventory cycles for both small (<80 sqm) and large (>180 sqm) units, while the main inventory is concentrated in the 100-140 sqm range [6][8] - In Guangzhou, the inventory for 100-120 sqm units constitutes over 20% of total inventory, while larger units (160 sqm and above) have seen an increase in inventory pressure [6][8] Regional Inventory Dynamics - Peripheral areas in cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are experiencing significant inventory growth, with Guangzhou's outer districts showing a 22.26% share of total inventory as of June 2025 [7][14] - Core districts in cities like Wuhan and Nanjing have a lower inventory share, but there is a rising trend in inventory proportion in these areas [8] - The overall inventory pressure is notably differentiated across various cities and regions, with the potential for further declines in inventory as the market experiences a phase of increased supply [14]

Group 1 - The apparent demand for crude steel in China from January to May is 42.888 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Crude steel consumption in China during the same period is 37.260 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, primarily driven by a 12.7% decrease in real estate crude steel consumption [1] - Crude steel exports from January to May reached 5.628 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, contributing to a 1.7 percentage point increase in crude steel demand [1] Group 2 - The real estate sector's crude steel consumption is expected to maintain negative growth due to ongoing inventory pressure, with new construction and construction area decreasing by 22.8% and 9.2% respectively [2] - The housing inventory sales ratio has remained high, indicating that further inventory reduction is needed, with projections suggesting it will only decrease to 19.5 months by year-end, still above the warning line of 18 months [2] Group 3 - Infrastructure steel consumption support is weakening, with significant project investment declining after a strong start in early 2023, leading to a slowdown in infrastructure-related steel consumption growth [3] - The issuance of long-term special bonds for major projects is planned to be 800 billion yuan for 2025, which is 100 billion yuan more than in 2024, but the support for infrastructure steel consumption may weaken in the second half of the year [3] Group 4 - Manufacturing steel consumption is facing challenges due to insufficient support for equipment upgrades and a slowdown in high-tech manufacturing investment growth [4][5] - The support for "old-for-new" consumption in consumer goods is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, which may further weaken the demand for related crude steel consumption [5] Group 5 - Steel exports are anticipated to be lower in the second half of the year due to anti-dumping measures affecting exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a significant reduction in exports to Vietnam [6] - The export of steel billets has increased significantly, raising concerns within the industry, leading to suggestions for export restrictions [6] Group 6 - In a neutral demand scenario, crude steel daily average demand from June to December is expected to decrease by 5.6% compared to May, with an annual demand decline projected at 1.5% [7]

Core Points - The Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) in Leshan, Sichuan, has issued 176 million yuan in housing rental group purchase loans to acquire 2,994 units of existing commercial housing, converting them into affordable rental housing [1] - The total loan amount for this project has reached 776 million yuan, aimed at revitalizing the local real estate market and addressing housing difficulties for new citizens and young people [1] - This initiative aligns with national policies to manage existing housing stock and enhance affordable housing supply, demonstrating the bank's commitment to supporting state strategies and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 1 - The recent loan issuance of 176 million yuan is specifically designated for the acquisition of 2,994 existing commercial housing units in Leshan, which will be transformed into affordable rental housing [1] - The total amount of loans provided for this project has reached 776 million yuan, significantly contributing to the revitalization of local real estate resources [1] - The housing rental group purchase loan is designed to support the bulk purchase of idle housing for affordable rental purposes, addressing both the need to reduce inventory and the demand for affordable housing [1] Group 2 - The ADBC in Leshan is actively applying for re-loans for affordable housing from the People's Bank of China to further reduce financing costs and support the development of a multi-supplier and multi-channel real estate model [2] - This approach aims to promote the stable and healthy operation of the regional real estate market and improve the living conditions of the local population [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry experienced a significant contraction in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the first half of 2025, with a total of 81 transactions completed, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year, but a notable decline in total transaction value [1][2]. Group 1: M&A Activity Overview - In the first half of 2025, the real estate sector completed 81 M&A transactions, an increase of 2 transactions compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - The total transaction value for 60 disclosed transactions was approximately 29.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 58% [1]. - Despite the overall decline, June 2025 saw a strong rebound with 19 transactions completed, a month-on-month increase of 9 transactions, and a total transaction value of 10.6 billion yuan, marking a substantial month-on-month growth of 334.4% [5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts and Asset Management - Leading real estate companies are accelerating the divestiture of non-core assets while asset management companies (AMCs) and local special bonds are entering the market to provide new solutions for distress and inventory reduction [2]. - Notably, from November 2024 to June 2025, China Resources Land disposed of multiple assets while focusing on residential business, with a total land acquisition amounting to 62.6 billion yuan, predominantly in first and second-tier cities [5]. Group 3: Financial Institutions and Support Mechanisms - Several AMCs have actively participated in distress relief efforts, with institutions like China Cinda and others establishing a 20 billion yuan fund for revitalizing distressed real estate assets [7]. - In addition, special bonds for acquiring existing residential properties have been issued in some cities, with Zhejiang and Sichuan utilizing 2.19 billion yuan for such projects, primarily targeting local state-owned enterprises [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the real estate market in China is showing signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline in both sales volume and sales value compared to previous periods [1][2][3] - In the first half of the year, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 45,851 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The sales value of new commercial housing was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.5%, with the decline narrowing by 19.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The number of cities with rising new residential sales prices increased to 14 in June, with Shanghai and Changsha showing the largest month-on-month increases of 0.4% [1] - The average sales prices of new residential properties in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 1.4%, 3.0%, and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively, but the declines were smaller than in previous months [2] - Real estate companies are progressing in debt reduction, with funds in place for real estate development down 6.2% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared to last year [2] Group 3 - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased to 76,948 million square meters by the end of June, marking a reduction of 479 million square meters from the end of May [2] - Core cities are continuing to optimize real estate policies, including adjustments to housing fund loan policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers [3] - It is expected that local governments will actively implement policies to stimulate the real estate market in the second half of the year [3]