Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the childcare subsidy system marks a new phase in China's population policy, focusing on "guidance" and "incentives" to address declining birth rates and support families [1][2]. Group 1: Childcare Subsidy System - The central government has allocated approximately 90 billion yuan for the childcare subsidy program, with the central finance covering about 90% of the costs [1][2]. - Families with children under three years old can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child, applicable to families with one to three children [2]. - The application process for the subsidy is streamlined through a unified online system, allowing for easy access via platforms like Alipay and WeChat, as well as offline options [2]. Group 2: Broader Support Measures - The childcare subsidy is part of a broader initiative to reduce the costs associated with childbirth, upbringing, and education, which includes tax deductions for childcare expenses and improvements in maternity leave policies [1][2]. - The overall support system aims to create a family-friendly society by providing economic, time, service, and rights support to enhance the willingness to have children [2][3]. Group 3: Investment in People - The government emphasizes the importance of investing in people, prioritizing resources for improving education, healthcare, and job opportunities, which is expected to boost birth rates and stimulate economic growth [3].

Group 1: Policy Impact - The introduction of a 3,600 yuan annual childcare subsidy is seen as limited by some residents in first-tier cities, but it is significant for low-income groups, representing 18.4% of the median disposable income of rural residents, which was 19,605 yuan in 2024[5] - The subsidy is expected to enhance national governance expectations and stimulate further central government support for social welfare and education[5] - In Hubei's Tianmen City, a substantial subsidy led to a 17% year-on-year increase in birth rates in 2024, compared to a national growth rate of 5.8%[5] Group 2: Future Expectations - The policy marks the beginning of a larger trend towards "investment in people," with potential expansions in free preschool education, which could require around 80 billion yuan if each of the 40.93 million preschoolers receives 2,000 yuan annually[5] - There is significant room for improvement in high school education funding, as central government funding accounted for only 1.73% of total ordinary high school education expenses in 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow, with a 135% increase in funds allocated for labor-based projects in Hebei, correlating with a 41.4% increase in infrastructure growth in the first quarter of 2025[5] Group 3: Human Capital Investment - Continued support for vocational education is anticipated, with various local and central government initiatives aimed at enhancing human resources to adapt to the "new and old kinetic energy conversion"[5] - The measures aimed at "investment in people" are expected to stimulate consumption across various sectors, as increased childcare support can lead to higher family spending[5] - The report highlights risks such as delayed childbirth plans due to retirement age changes and potential oversaturation of demand from the previous "Year of the Dragon" effect[5]

Group 1: Subsidy Overview - The childcare subsidy program will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old starting January 1, 2025[1] - The estimated total fiscal support for the subsidy will reach approximately 118.8 billion yuan in 2025, 117.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 116.2 billion yuan in 2027[1] - By 2028, the estimated fiscal subsidy amount will decrease to 95.7 billion yuan as the subsidies for children born before 2025 will have been fully disbursed[1] Group 2: Financial Structure - The central government will cover a significant portion of the subsidy, with a cost-sharing ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments, varying by region[1] - The central government will bear 85% of the costs in the eastern region, 90% in the central region, and 95% in the western region[1] - The 2025 fiscal budget indicates a significant increase in health spending, with an additional 102.4 billion yuan allocated compared to 2024, creating room for the childcare subsidy[1] Group 3: Economic Impact - The subsidy represents approximately 0.1% of China's nominal GDP for 2024, which is relatively low compared to OECD countries where similar subsidies can reach 1.5-2.5% of GDP[1] - The expected consumption increase from the subsidy is around 78 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.16% of total retail sales[1] - The program is expected to have a gradual impact on birth rates, while providing a more immediate boost to consumer spending[1] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The childcare subsidy signals a significant shift towards more substantial birth support policies, with potential for future increases in subsidy amounts[1] - There is a possibility of developing a comprehensive policy framework that includes economic support for families, housing, and education to enhance long-term birth rates[1] - The government is also focusing on improving early childhood education and care services, as indicated by recent policy discussions[1]

网：lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 宏观研究报告 育儿补贴快评："投资于人"具像化 事件:7月28日,中办、国办印发《育儿补贴制度实施方案》,从2025年1月 1 日起,对 3 周岁以下婴幼儿每年发放 3600元补贴。 2025 年 7 月 29 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 一、育儿补贴正式公布,财政支持千亿规模。育儿补贴成为国家制度,是"投 o 资于人"政策方向的坚实一步。根据方案公布的补贴标准,育儿补贴按年发放, 现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年 3600 元。其中对 2025 年 1 月 1 日之前出生、不 满 3 周岁的婴幼儿(2022~2024 年出生),按应补贴月数折算计发补贴。2022- 2024 年我国出生人口数量分别为 956、902、954 万人 ...

相较于育儿补贴规模的多少，更重要的是政策对于扩大内需和"投资于人"的积极态 度，育儿补贴落地有望成为市场风格切换的催化剂。 2、育儿补贴央地财政如何分担？ 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 国家育儿补贴制度实施方案7月28日公布。从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以 下婴幼儿发放补贴，至其年满3周岁。育儿补贴按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元。 其中，对2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，按应补贴月数折算计发补贴。 1、育儿补贴规模有多大？ 《育儿补贴制度实施方案》明确，"从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿 发放补贴，至其年满3周岁"。 此次育儿补贴的发放对象可以分为两类群体： 一是2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，对应2022-2024年2812万人的出生人口。《方 案》明确"对2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，按应补贴月数折算计发补贴"，对应的补 贴规模共计854亿元。 二是2025年1月1日之后出生的婴幼儿，对应2025年的新出生人口，预计960万人左右，按照现阶段 国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元补 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of a universal childcare subsidy policy in China, which will provide financial support to families with children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [1][2][4] - The subsidy is part of a broader strategy to address demographic challenges, including declining birth rates and an aging population, and aims to promote high-quality population development and long-term national growth [2][3][7] - The policy reflects the government's commitment to improving people's livelihoods and reducing the economic burden of raising children, which has been a significant concern for many families [4][5][6] Group 2 - The childcare subsidy is seen as a significant investment in human capital, contributing to the long-term accumulation of human resources and supporting multiple policy goals such as increasing household income, boosting consumption, and expanding domestic demand [2][3] - The initiative is part of a comprehensive approach to create a "birth-friendly" society, which includes improving the overall environment for childbirth, child-rearing, and education, thereby fostering a positive cycle of population reproduction [7][8] - The policy aims to lower the costs associated with childbirth and child-rearing, thereby encouraging families to have more children and addressing the societal value of caregiving [6][7]

这阵子，我和一些朋友都买了新家电。近期看到有一项数据，说今年以来家电以旧换新已经超过1亿 台。补贴多、消费热，是不是因为"投资于人"政策在发力？它还能从哪些方面惠及全社会？ ——人民网网友 越是经过实践检验，越能看清一项政策多元、长久的价值—— "投资于人"，助力改善民生、赋能个体。 就业、教育、医疗、住房、养老、托幼等问题，关系千家万户。如何消除后顾之忧，让大家腾出闲和 钱，充分地发展自我、参与消费、乐享生活？"投资于人"正是管用的实招。 从今年起，全国将连续3年每年补贴职业技能培训千万人次以上；今年，安排中央对地方学生资助补助 经费超800亿元；各地加力实施旧房改造和城市更新、促进优质医疗资源扩容下沉、出台育儿补贴政 策……"投资于人"的一系列举措，赋能亿万个体的职业技能与消费潜能，既"直给"人们获得感、幸福 感、安全感，也激发出更高层次的美好生活需要。 "投资于人"，助力提振消费、发展经济。 促进居民增收减负，能够释放可观的消费潜能。要将潜能转化为实效、真正拉动经济，还需"投资于 人"更直接地作用于消费环节。 补贴带旺市场——今年安排3000亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新，"国补"在线上线下掀起消费热潮。去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "investing in people" as a strategic choice for national development, focusing on transforming human resources into sustainable human capital through education, health, and skills training [2][6]. Group 1: "Investing in People" as a New Development Context - The transition from demographic dividend to talent dividend is necessary in the new development stage [5]. - Enhancing international competitiveness through "investing in people" is essential for the new development pattern [5]. - Exploring diverse paths for human capital investment aligns with the new development philosophy [5]. Group 2: Paradigm Shift from "Material-Based" to "Human-Based" Investment Logic - The historical evolution from "material-based" to "human-based" investment reflects a paradigm revolution [6]. - The rise of AI and other technologies shifts value creation from material resources to human capital, emphasizing knowledge and skills [6]. - The return on investment in education is increasingly surpassing that of material investments, indicating a shift in economic growth drivers [6]. Group 3: Chinese Wisdom in Overcoming the "Malthusian Trap" - China is innovatively addressing the challenges of population growth and resource constraints through "investing in people" [7]. - The focus is on qualitative improvements in human capital to optimize economic structure and enhance innovation capabilities [7]. - The strategic shift towards "investing in people" marks a fundamental breakthrough in China's development philosophy [7]. Group 4: Precision Investment Across the Lifespan - Technological advancements are leading to a shift towards precision investment in human capital throughout the entire lifecycle [8]. - Innovations such as brain-computer interfaces and digital twin technology are enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of education and training [9]. - This approach aims to make investments in human capital more precise, inclusive, and efficient, covering all life stages [9]. Group 5: The Human-Centric Logic of Civilizational Evolution - The transition from "material-centric" to "human-centric" development is an inherent logic of civilization evolution [10]. - "Investing in people" is crucial for fostering innovation, professional skills, and adaptability, which are essential for sustainable economic development [10]. - This investment strategy is not only an economic imperative but also a philosophical choice for the future of civilization [10]. Group 6: Action Guide for Individuals and Organizations - The book serves as a guide for enterprises and governments, providing insights into how to navigate the "human efficiency revolution" [11]. - It analyzes successful international practices and offers pathways for individual growth in the new era [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, government policies, and their implications for various sectors, including manufacturing, education, and infrastructure. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Policy Focus**: Future economic policies will emphasize high-quality development, structural adjustments, and industrial upgrades rather than merely pursuing high-speed growth. The internal market and domestic demand will be crucial for economic construction [3][30]. 2. **Structural Policies**: The likelihood of significant growth-stabilizing policies in the second half of the year is low, with a focus on structural policies supporting high-quality development, particularly in major projects and emerging industries [2][5]. 3. **Impact of Major Projects**: The establishment of Yajiang Group and the construction of Yaxia Hydropower Station are seen as part of the growth stabilization logic, but their direct impact on GDP is minimal, contributing less than 0.1% despite an annual investment of 120 billion RMB [6]. 4. **Global Economic Changes**: The shifting global economic landscape necessitates a greater focus on domestic market development and internal circulation, with an emphasis on upgrading manufacturing and investing in human capital [7]. 5. **US-China Trade Relations**: There are signs of easing in US-China trade disputes, with both sides showing a need for negotiation. The end of the tariff suspension period on August 12 is a critical date to watch [8][9]. 6. **Urban Renewal Plans for 2025**: The 2025 urban renewal strategy will focus on improving existing infrastructure, resilience, safety, and digital governance, which will drive economic growth and industrial upgrades [12][13]. 7. **Investment in Human Capital**: The government is prioritizing investments in education, health, employment, and elderly care, with a significant increase in fiscal spending in these areas [14]. 8. **Silver Economy Potential**: The silver economy, driven by an aging population, presents significant growth opportunities across various sectors, including robotics and smart home technologies [15]. 9. **Manufacturing Sector Losses**: The manufacturing sector is experiencing significant losses, with loss ratios between 27% and 34% across various industries. Future strategies should focus on quality, efficiency, and innovation [18][19]. 10. **Capital Market Outlook**: The capital market is expected to undergo three phases: policy-driven expectations, capacity clearing, and recovery of profitability in 2026. Successful implementation of anti-involution policies will positively impact long-term economic growth [20]. 11. **Consumption Market Recovery**: The consumption market has rebounded to over 5% growth in the first half of the year, aided by subsidies for replacing old consumer goods. Further stimulus measures are anticipated [23]. 12. **Fiscal Spending Trends**: There has been a significant acceleration in the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds, focusing on key projects and sectors such as high-end manufacturing and green energy [24]. 13. **New Financial Tools**: New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, targeting sectors like digital economy and green low-carbon initiatives [25]. 14. **Low-altitude and Marine Economy Developments**: Recent legislative changes and government meetings emphasize the development of low-altitude and marine economies, indicating a strategic focus on these emerging sectors [26]. 15. **Future Economic Growth**: The probability of achieving a 5% GDP growth target for the year is high, supported by effective policy implementation [29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Key Policy Dates**: Important upcoming dates include the Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of July, the end of the tariff suspension on August 12, and various other significant events that could influence economic policy and market conditions [4][11]. 2. **Differences in Policy Approaches**: The current anti-involution policies differ from previous supply-side structural reforms, focusing more on private enterprises and requiring self-regulation rather than administrative orders [16][17]. 3. **Debt Market and Gold Outlook**: Short-term fluctuations in government bond yields are expected, but a long-term bullish trend remains. Gold prices are anticipated to rise due to geopolitical factors and central bank purchases [33].

Group 1 - The likelihood of introducing incremental fiscal policies in the second half of the year is low from the perspective of current financial supplementation, but there is a need for new policies to support the weak real estate sector [1] - The probability of implementing policy financial tools is higher within the incremental reserve policies [1] - There is potential for increased intensity and accelerated pace in stabilizing investment, the real estate market, and risk prevention [1] Group 2 - Fiscal spending should continue to focus on "investing in people," particularly in key livelihood areas such as education, healthcare, employment, and elderly care [1]