2025.06.30-07.04 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第25周油厂大豆实际压榨量238.42万吨，开机率为 67.02%；大豆库存637.99万吨，较上周增加38.39万吨，增幅6.40%。豆 粕库存50.89万吨，较上周增加9.89万吨，增幅24.12%。当前，进口大豆 到港量维持高位，油厂在供应充足的情况下保持较高的开机率，豆粕产 量随之提升，下游饲料企业采取高头寸滚动补库策略，豆粕延续累库， 供应宽松格局持续。然而巴西大豆升贴水报价走强，叠加中美贸易存在 不确定性。综合来看，豆粕期货延续宽幅震荡运行。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509短期 内维持宽幅震荡，预计运行区间：2900-3120，可考虑区间 操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509或维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House is struggling to fulfill its promise of comprehensive global trade reform before the July 9 deadline, with expected agreements likely to be limited framework documents rather than full trade agreements [2][6]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Negotiations - The U.S. government aims to reach agreements with over ten major trading partners before the deadline, but these are expected to be limited in scope [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that around 20 countries not reaching agreements by the deadline could continue negotiations but would face higher tariffs [3]. - Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all countries, emphasizing unilateral control over tariff rates [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The mixed signals from the Trump administration are causing market tension, affecting global economic relations [2][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is creating anxiety among domestic businesses, with previous tariff policies having caused market panic [7]. - A recent poll indicated that 57% of voters are dissatisfied with Trump's handling of trade policy, reflecting public sentiment against the current approach [8]. Group 3: Future Developments - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to release industry survey results that may trigger new tariffs [8]. - Legal challenges to the legitimacy of Trump's tariff powers are ongoing, with a recent court ruling deeming most tariffs illegal [8]. - Despite the chaotic negotiation landscape, some countries are still optimistic about reaching agreements, particularly with India and the EU [7].

近期，美国经济数据发布后引起了社会的广泛关注。根据美国商务部最新出炉的报告，今年第一季度，美国经济出人意料地按年率计算萎缩了0.5%，这一 数据比先前预估的-0.2%更为糟糕，也是自2022年第一季度以来，美国经济首次经历季度性负增长。这一消息无疑加深了市场对美国经济增长动力的担忧， 同时也揭示了关税政策可能对数据产生的扭曲效应。 本次GDP终值的下调，主要原因是消费者支出与出口数据的向下调整。作为美国经济的重要引擎，第一季度个人消费支出的增速显著放缓至0.5%，远低于 去年第四季度的4%，创下了自2021年以来的最低增速。与此同时，进口激增37.9%，导致净出口对GDP的拖累高达4.7个百分点，这反映出企业为了应对未 来可能的关税上调，采取了提前囤货的策略。 尽管进口数据的调整在一定程度上缓解了消费疲软带来的负面影响，但美国经济整体仍然呈现出需求放缓的趋势。第一季度国内需求增长率从初值的3.0% 大幅下调至1.9%，而联邦支出的降幅更是达到了4.6%，这是自2022年以来的最大降幅。核心PCE物价指数终值上调至3.5%，显示出通胀压力依然巨大，进 一步加剧了市场对滞胀风险的忧虑。 美国劳动力市场的降温同样引 ...

智通财经6月29日电，国际清算银行称，全球政府债务攀升趋势"难以为继"。关税提高可能导致供应链 中断和通货膨胀飙升。美国经济政策的不确定性正在抑制经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies is suppressing economic growth [1] Group 1 - The International Bank for Settlements highlights that the current economic policies in the U.S. are creating an environment of uncertainty [1] - This uncertainty is identified as a significant factor contributing to the slowdown in economic growth [1] - The report suggests that clarity in economic policies could potentially enhance growth prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - European political figures are advocating for the repatriation of gold reserves stored in the United States, particularly from Germany and Italy, due to increasing geopolitical risks and concerns over the reliability of U.S. economic policies [1][5][11]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Value - Germany holds 3,352 tons of gold and Italy has 2,452 tons, with over one-third of their gold stored in the New York Federal Reserve, totaling a value exceeding $245 billion [3][5]. - The call for repatriation is driven by the desire to secure national assets amidst rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East [5][11]. Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The recent volatility in the Middle East has heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, prompting European nations to reconsider their gold storage strategies [5][11]. - Concerns over U.S. economic policy, particularly influenced by former President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve, have led to increased anxiety regarding the stability of U.S. financial governance [7][9]. Group 3: Trust Issues and Historical Context - Historical reasons for storing gold in the U.S. stem from Cold War fears, but current geopolitical dynamics suggest that the necessity for such arrangements may be diminishing [11][12]. - There is a growing sentiment among Europeans that U.S. actions, particularly under Trump's administration, are undermining their interests, leading to a gradual erosion of trust [11][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - Despite the desire for repatriation, significant progress is unlikely in the short term due to the complexities of transatlantic relations and the ongoing political landscape [12]. - Many European leaders still view the New York Federal Reserve as a reliable storage partner, indicating a cautious approach to any immediate changes in gold storage policies [12].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach to adjusting interest rate policy during congressional hearings, suggesting that waiting for more economic data is prudent [1][4][6] - President Trump criticized Powell, stating he made a significant error and expressed a desire for Powell to resign, indicating he would only appoint those willing to lower interest rates [1][4][8] - Trump is reportedly considering breaking tradition by announcing his nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair as early as September, which could influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [4][11][12] Group 2 - Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation remains uncertain, with potential short-term and long-term effects on prices and economic activity [4][14] - Recent data showed that the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.7% year-over-year in May, surpassing expectations and marking the highest increase since February [5][6] - Market expectations indicate an 81.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with an 18.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6][7] Group 3 - Concerns have been raised about the quality of economic data collected by the U.S. government, which may affect the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions [14][15][16] - Powell expressed the need for improved measurement of economic activity data, highlighting the importance of reliable indicators for effective policy-making [16]

Core Insights - The global merchandise trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021 and remaining above the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing trade growth [1] - Strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of the year was driven by importers' anticipatory purchasing behavior in response to expected tariff policy adjustments [1] - In contrast, the new export orders index fell to 97.9, dropping below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in global trade growth later in the year [1] Trade Dynamics - The global merchandise trade barometer serves as an early warning signal for short-term trade trends by collecting trade statistics from major economies [1] - The report highlights a stark contrast between surging import demand and weak export orders, reflecting an imbalance in the current global trade structure [1] - Export orders were the only category to show negative growth, indicating the fragility of trade growth despite strong import activity [1] Future Outlook - The World Trade Organization warns that increasing uncertainty in trade policies globally could exacerbate the risk of trade contraction [2] - Potential large-scale tariff implementations could pose significant challenges to global trade [2] - While short-term growth in global merchandise trade is observed, the medium-term outlook faces numerous challenges due to rising uncertainty factors in the global economic environment [2]

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Group 1 - Foreign investors have shifted to net selling of Japanese stocks for the first time since March, selling 524.3 billion yen (approximately 3.62 billion USD) after 11 consecutive weeks of buying totaling 7.236 trillion yen [1] - Analysts attribute the shift to high market valuations, as the market continues to rise despite weak earnings, leading to concerns about overvaluation [1] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, may also be influencing foreign investors' decisions due to potential impacts on Japan's oil imports and inflation levels [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent net selling, foreign investment in Japanese stocks this quarter has reached approximately 6.81 trillion yen, marking the largest inflow in two years [2] - In the bond market, foreign investors sold 368.8 billion yen of Japanese long-term bonds, ending a three-week buying streak, but purchased 1.5 trillion yen in short-term notes, the highest level in nine weeks [2] - Japanese investors have been net sellers of foreign stocks for six consecutive weeks, selling 88.2 billion yen, while buying about 615.5 billion yen in long-term foreign bonds [2]