Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9% [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen a widening decline, necessitating a stabilization of investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][3]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment is 2.6%, with a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 1.9%, but this is still a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, with a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Specific sectors such as transportation, storage, and postal services saw a decline of 0.1%, while water, environment, and public facilities management experienced a decline of 6.3% [4]. Regional Investment Trends - Eastern regions reported a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, while central and western regions saw declines of 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively. The northeastern region faced a significant decline of 14.0% [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The current cycle is characterized by excessive clearing of supply entities and difficulties in inventory replenishment, leading to a slow recovery in investment [11]. Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the industry is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from major national strategies. Key companies to watch include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in new infrastructure and overseas markets [16].

新基建为智慧园区带来的，不仅是效率的提升，更是发展模式的革新。某装备制造园区依托工业互联网 平台，打通了从零部件采购到成品销售的全链条数据，实现了"以销定产"的柔性生产模式，库存周转率 提升45%；某电商物流园区通过5G+北斗定位技术，将货物分拣误差率降至0.01%，单日处理订单能力 突破百万级。这些变化背后，是新基建将园区从"物理空间载体"转变为"数字产业生态"的核心逻辑—— 它不再只是企业的"房东"，而是通过数据连接、资源调度、技术赋能，成为产业升级的"合伙人"。 与传统产业升级的"大拆大建"不同，新基建驱动的园区变革更具"润物细无声"的特质。它不需要推倒重 建的宏大工程，而是通过在现有设施上加装传感器、升级网络节点、搭建数据平台，就能实现效率的跃 迁；它不依赖单一技术的突破，而是靠5G、工业互联网、大数据等技术的协同发力，形成"1+1>2"的聚 合效应。就像雷军在小米SU7发布会上强调的"技术普惠"，智慧园区的革命也不是少数头部企业的专 属，而是通过新基建的规模化部署，让不同规模、不同行业的企业都能共享数字红利。 当新基建的信号覆盖越来越广，产业升级的需求越来越迫切，智慧园区的这场效率革命已不可逆。它 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan is accelerating the implementation of major infrastructure projects to build a high-quality modern infrastructure system, enhancing connectivity and supporting economic development [6][16]. Infrastructure Development - A series of significant infrastructure projects are underway, including the completion of the Yangpu Port Expressway by the end of December, which will greatly improve transportation efficiency [5]. - The expansion of Sanya Phoenix International Airport's T3 terminal has been completed, marking a record construction speed for similar projects in China [5]. - Hainan is enhancing its "land, sea, and air" infrastructure, with a focus on increasing international flight routes to major global destinations [6][8]. Transportation Network - The island's road network is being significantly improved, with the completion of various highways and the achievement of "county-level expressway access" [9]. - By the end of 2024, the total length of highways in Hainan is expected to exceed 42,000 kilometers, with a density of 124.2 kilometers per 100 square kilometers [9]. - The G225 national road is undergoing a "five networks integration" project, enhancing its capacity and efficiency [10]. New Infrastructure Initiatives - Hainan is advancing its digital infrastructure, with all major cities achieving "gigabit city" status and a complete 5G network coverage in administrative villages [12]. - The province is also developing a new energy system, with projects like the Boao Zero Carbon Demonstration Zone and distributed photovoltaic projects [12][13]. Customs and Trade Facilitation - Hainan's customs facilities are fully constructed, supporting the operation of the free trade port and enhancing the efficiency of goods flow [15][16]. - The province has initiated a 7×24 hour operation for customs checks, ensuring smooth and efficient processing of goods [16].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of infrastructure in Hainan is accelerating, aiming to support the establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port and enhance its role as a new pivot for opening up the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - Hainan's infrastructure is crucial for the Free Trade Port's construction, with a focus on major projects to improve network connectivity and smart capabilities [2][6]. - The port infrastructure features significant characteristics such as functional integration, with Haikou Port being a major hub capable of handling 35 million passengers and 5.6 million vehicles annually [3]. - The capacity of Yangpu International Container Hub Port has increased from 1.02 million TEUs to 3.1 million TEUs, marking a 204% growth [3]. Group 2: Transportation Network - A comprehensive "Five Ring" transportation network has been established, enhancing connectivity within the island and with international destinations [3][4]. - The completion of four highways and the "Two Ring" tourism road has facilitated smoother transportation, with 93 international routes now operational [3][4]. Group 3: Utility Infrastructure - The construction of the electricity, gas, and water networks is progressing alongside transportation infrastructure, creating a resilient support system for openness [4][5]. - Hainan has achieved "Gigabit City" status in three major cities, and the new power system in Boao has been recognized as a national demonstration zone [4][5]. Group 4: Future Development Plans - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for proactive infrastructure development to enhance connectivity and stability [6][7]. - The focus is on achieving coordinated development across the island, improving logistics networks, and advancing "new infrastructure" initiatives [8][9]. - The aim is to elevate the capabilities of Hainan as a hub for international trade and transportation, ensuring efficient movement of people and goods [9].

2025.12. 13 本文字数：1817，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 作为中国重要政策工具，地方政府专项债券（下称"专项债"）将继续优化。 近日中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议部署2026年经济工作重点。在部署明年推动投资止跌回稳 方面，要求"优化地方政府专项债券用途管理"。 专项债是指地方为有一定收益的公益性项目发行的、约定一定期限内以公益性项目对应的政府性基金 或专项收入还本付息的政府债券。它是落实积极财政政策的重要抓手，是政府拉动投资最直接、最有 效的政策工具之一。 2025年以来的专项债资金投向与2024年相比，投向市政和产业园、交通基础设施等领域比重出现明 显下滑，投向土地储备领域专项债资金规模从2024年的约2亿元增至约5437亿元。另外，今年专项 债首次投向政府投资基金，规模已超800亿元。 今年专项债资金投向土地储备规模大增，目的是改善土地的供求关系、增强房地产企业的资金流动 性，同时有利于补充重点领域的土地储备，推动房地产市场平稳运行。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经，专项债券用途优化更多地是贴合国家相关规划及年度经 济工作任务要求，优先投向当年重点支持领域。此 ...

不过，这钱流向了哪里，才是关键。今天的盘面，可以说是 "新老交替"与"冷热分化" 的生动写照。一 边，是 "电网设备"板块异军突起，多只个股涨停。这绝非偶然，其背后是"新基建"和能源转型的宏大 叙事在支撑。无论是特高压建设、电网智能化改造，还是服务于新能源消纳的配套升级，这都是未来几 年确定性极高的投资主线，有实实在在的政策和订单支撑。另一边，贵金属板块的持续活跃，则是对美 联储降息预期的直接反应，属于全球宏观逻辑的映射。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。上午收盘，这盘面走得有点意思，三大指数涨跌互现，像个不太整齐的合唱 团。创业板指领涨0.6%，而上证指数几乎平盘。但有一个数据很提气——全市场成交额半天就达到了 1.26万亿元，比昨天同一时间放量了超过900亿！有量就有戏，这说明市场的交投活跃度在回升，有资 金在行动了。 而另一边，前几天还风光无限的零售、海南等板块，今天则明显进入了调整。这种快速的轮动告诉我 们，当前市场很难有全面持续的普涨行情，资金正在不同的逻辑与故事间快速切换，寻找阻力最小、共 识最强的方向。这也解释了为什么指数看起来波澜不惊，但板块间却是冰火两重天。 第一，紧跟资金，聚焦主线。上午放量，且资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for copper demand is optimistic, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, AI, and power grids, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation from 2025 to 2027, leading to an upward trend in copper prices [2][4][67]. Group 1: Copper Demand Drivers - Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to significantly increase copper consumption, with a projected CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030, resulting in an annual increase of 21 million tons [11][13][67]. - The AI sector is driving demand for data centers, with an anticipated additional copper requirement of 206 million tons from 2025 to 2030, averaging 34 million tons annually [16][67]. - The power infrastructure cycle, including the upgrade of aging power grid systems and AI-driven resource construction, is expected to stabilize copper demand over the long term [20][68]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In China, stable domestic demand and the development of new productive forces are expected to boost copper demand, particularly through new infrastructure projects [20][69]. - In the United States, the need for power grid updates and expansions is anticipated to support a rebound in copper demand, driven by manufacturing return and energy transition [27][30][69]. - The European Union's focus on renewable energy sources and post-war reconstruction efforts is projected to enhance copper demand [42][69]. - Other regions, such as India and Southeast Asia, are expected to see increased copper demand due to infrastructure investments and manufacturing shifts [45][50][70]. Group 3: Short-term Factors and Market Dynamics - Recent tariff impacts are expected to ease after May 2025, contributing to a more stable outlook for copper demand [4][71]. - The copper market is characterized by regional supply and demand dynamics, with geopolitical factors affecting the flow of copper and creating potential supply risks [62][71]. - The transition from aluminum to copper in certain applications is limited by technical and market challenges, which may not significantly impact overall copper demand in the short term [64][71].

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，铜被广泛应用于电气、机械制造、建筑工业、交通运输等领 域。亚太地区持续发展，新能源、算力等新兴经济快速增长，带动全球电力需求长期增长。铜需求2025 年淡季不淡，价格中枢逐步提升，韧性超预期。该行预计2025-2027年铜供需紧平衡，铜价上行方向不 变。 广发证券主要观点如下： 铜需求远景可期，从行业看，新能源汽车、AI产业、电力电网将贡献需求增量 (1)新能源汽车：汽车的电动化程度提升，新能源车拥有更高铜耗，预计其2025-2030年铜用量CAGR达 14%。 (2)AI训练和服务需求持续增长，数据中心的铜需求增长，预计2025-2030年新增铜需求206万吨。 (3)电力基建周期：老旧电力电网系统更新，叠加AI促电力资源建设，电力用铜需求将长期稳定增长。 中国：稳内需+新质生产力发展，将带动铜需求增长。 美国：电力电网更新、扩建是支撑制造业回流、AI发展的基石，该行预计未来美国铜需求将回升。 2025年5月后关税冲击短期预期缓和。该行对铜需求较为乐观，长期大概率仍将增长，原因是： (1)能源需求构筑铜需求的确定性，能源相关的新基建也是对冲经济下滑风险的重要抓手，铜需 ...

摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

中金公司研报称，2026年看好科技成长投资主线，关注国内需求修复及出口高景气带来的结构性机会。 判断2026年机械行业中科技板块仍具备最大投资机会，看好科技创新驱动的新基建与应用。国内需求筑 底修复，国际化持续推进，关注具备全球竞争力且盈利能力提升的出口链企业，及具备景气拐点和技术 变革的子赛道。 截至2025年12月8日 14:23，创业板指数(399006)盘中涨超3%，现涨2.67%，有望实现三连阳，样本股天 孚通信(300394)上涨19.89%，迈为股份(300751)上涨18.23%，江波龙(301308)上涨14.60%，锐捷网络 (301165)，捷佳伟创(300724)等个股均上涨。 消息面上，12月5日，工业和信息化部碳达峰碳中和工作领导小组会议在京召开。会议强调，要完善工 作体系，加强工业和信息化领域碳达峰碳中和管理制度建设，加快推进重点行业领域技术装备更新升 级，强化碳达峰碳中和技术、标准、检测手段等供给，协同推进工业资源综合利用。 创业板ETF建信紧密跟踪创业板指数，创业板指由创业板中市值大、流动性好的100只股票组成，反映 创业板市场的运行情况。 相关产品：创业板ETF建信(159 ...