Group 1 - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery under the policy direction of expanding domestic demand, with public funds accelerating their layout in this area [1][2] - Several leading fund companies, including GF Fund, Penghua Fund, and Huaxia Fund, have launched new food-themed funds for the first time in four years, indicating renewed interest in the consumer sector [2][3] - The tourism and aviation sectors have performed well recently, with a notable net inflow of over 680 million yuan into the tourism ETF managed by Fortune Fund, approaching historical highs [1][3] Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on the consumer sector, with some actively increasing their positions in consumer stocks, particularly in the service consumption area [3][4] - The recovery momentum in consumer spending has been evident since the fourth quarter, with improvements in CPI growth and prices in service consumption and food sectors [4][5] - There are indications that the government will continue to support the consumer sector, with many sub-sectors currently at historically low valuation levels, which could benefit from policy-driven performance improvements [5] Group 3 - Certain segments within the consumer sector, such as health consumption, pet economy, and cultural tourism, are highlighted as having significant value due to policy support [1][5] - The upcoming traditional consumption peak during the New Year and Spring Festival is expected to drive stronger performance in the consumer sector, particularly in service-oriented consumption [5] - The current low valuations in the consumer sector present an opportunity for long-term investment, despite potential short-term volatility [5]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a collective adjustment, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.11% to 25,774.14 points, the Tech Index down by 0.69% to 5,488.89 points, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.29% to 8,913.83 points [2] Sector Performance - Food stocks showed resilience, with notable gains from companies such as Master Kong Holdings (up 2.07%), Uni-President China (up 1.46%), and Crayon Shin-chan Foods (up 0.50%) [4][5] - The electric equipment and lithium battery sectors performed strongly, with Dongfang Electric rising by 8.17%, Harbin Electric by 5.04%, and China Electric by 1.02% [6][7] - The demand for gas turbine generators in the U.S. data center market is strong, which is positively impacting Dongfang Electric's sales prospects [8] - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a significant growth cycle, with a projected 75% increase in global shipments from Chinese manufacturers this year [9] Underperforming Sectors - The optical communication sector faced pressure, with stocks like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable falling by 5.13% and Huizhou Technology down by 4.34% [10][11] - Despite rising fiber prices indicating demand recovery, concerns about valuation risks have emerged due to high rolling P/E ratios and a mismatch between supply-demand expectations and actual business structures [11] - The tech sector saw declines, with Kuaishou down by 3.52% and Tencent Holdings down by 2.03%, influenced by negative sentiment following a content-related incident on Kuaishou's platform [12][13] Notable Stock Movements - Rongda Technology surged by 14.83% after announcing plans to acquire Shenzhen Yanke Digital for up to 65 million RMB [14] - Xinjiang Xin Mining rose by 2.81% amid expectations of reduced nickel ore production targets from Indonesia, which could impact market balance [15]

发布时间：2025-12-22 行业投资评级 证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 16685.08 | | 52 | 周最高 | 18638.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《政治局会议强化扩内需，茅台批价短 期调控，三只松鼠进军社区硬折扣业 态》 - 2025.12 ...

-19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：商贸零售|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2458.79 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2458.79 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1877.67 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 近期研究报告 《新消费行业框架：星星之火，灿若 星辰》 - 2025.11.28 11 月社零数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 国家统计局发布最新社零数据，11 月份，社会消费品零售总额 43898 亿元，同比增长 1.3%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 39444 亿元，增长 2.5%。1—11 月份，社会消费品零售总额 456067 亿元， 增长 4.0%。其中，除汽车 ...

直接看数据：申万商贸零售涨3.99%，轻工制造涨2.13%，汽车涨1.91%，社会服务涨1.82%。这是今天 盘面最强的阵营。下跌的只有银行和煤炭两个板块，且跌幅微小。市场用脚投票，方向明确指向了内需 复苏这条线。 各位股友，中午复盘时间到。今天上午的盘面，很有看头。指数层面，创业板、深成指领涨，这没问 题。但关键细节在两点：一是半日成交再破万亿，环比放量421亿；二是行业涨幅榜被大消费相关板块 霸屏。这种"放量+消费领涨"的组合，值得我们深入拆解。 注：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文内容基于公开信息整理，不构成任何投资建议。 1. 政策锚定：中央经济工作会议就是最硬的逻辑。明年经济工作首要是"扩内需"，路径是"促消费、 增收入"。对于股市而言，这是未来一个季度甚至更长时间可以反复挖掘和演绎的政策金矿。资金 敢于在此时点拉升消费板块，是对这一政策方向的下注。 2. 事件催化：除了双节预期，今天盘中有两个具体事件值得注意。一是海南自贸港全岛封关运作正 式启动，"零关税"范围扩大，直接刺激了免税店、零售板块（如中国中免大涨）。二是工信部批 准L3级自动驾驶上路试点，这是从测试走向商业化应用的关键一步，智能驾驶产业链 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/19 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 截至 12 月 18 日 23:00 收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。塑料、纯碱、沥 青跌超 1%，玻璃、20 号胶、橡胶、白糖跌近 1%；涨幅方面，对二甲苯（PX）、 PTA 涨超 2%，瓶片、短纤涨超 1%。 2、国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COM ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Southeast Asia consumer sector, but it indicates that most consumer sectors are underperforming the index, suggesting a cautious outlook for investments in this area [1]. Core Insights - Inflation in Southeast Asia is described as moderate and uneven, with varying impacts across different countries. Indonesia's CPI increased by 2.72%, Thailand's decreased by 0.49%, Vietnam's rose by 3.25%, and the Philippines saw a 1.5% increase, indicating a controlled inflation environment conducive to consumer recovery [3][12][22][37]. - Consumer confidence is recovering in Indonesia, with the consumer confidence index rising to 124.0, reflecting optimism about economic prospects. In Thailand, the consumer confidence index increased to 50.9, driven by government stimulus and improved trade conditions [17][25]. - Retail sales in Indonesia and Vietnam show robust growth, with Indonesia's food and beverage retail index growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while Vietnam's retail sales increased by 7.1% [4][39]. Economic Data Summary - Indonesia's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 5.04%, supported by strong consumer spending and investment, although it showed a slight slowdown compared to Q2 2025 [12]. - Thailand's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 1.2%, driven by consumer spending and tourism, but overall growth remains moderate [20]. - Singapore's GDP grew by 4.2% in Q3 2025, primarily due to manufacturing and service sector recovery, indicating a stable economic environment [28]. - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 8.23% in Q3 2025, reflecting strong performance in industrial and service sectors, although challenges remain from external demand fluctuations [35]. Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector in Southeast Asia shows signs of resilience, with Indonesia's consumer confidence and retail sales indicating strong demand. However, the overall performance of consumer stocks has lagged behind the market index in several countries [4][11]. - In Thailand, consumer spending remains cautious, with inflation pressures being low, which may limit growth in consumer sectors [22]. - Malaysia's consumer sector is recovering, with GDP growth of 5.2% in Q3 2025, supported by domestic demand and investment [42].

在中央经济工作会议强调"内需主导"、消费刺激政策密集落地的窗口期，兰州丽尚国潮实业集团股份有 限公司（以下简称"丽尚国潮"，股票代码：600738）再获控股股东增持背书。12月17日，公司公告显 示，控股股东浙江元明控股有限公司（以下简称"元明控股"）启动新一轮增持计划，拟未来12个月内通 过集中竞价方式增持7613353股至15226704股，对应总股本比例1%—2%，且不设置固定增持价格区 间。 分析人士指出，控股股东短期内连续增持，既是对国家扩内需政策的积极回应，更是对公司战略转型的 信心背书。"不设固定价格区间"的表述，凸显其基于长期价值的投资逻辑，而非短期市场博弈，为应对 股价波动预留灵活操作空间。值得关注的是，此次增持还获得工商银行浙江省分行不超过1亿元专项贷 款支持，资金端保障进一步强化了市场预期。 在消费复苏与政策加码的双重驱动下，丽尚国潮已形成"专业市场为压舱石、商贸百货为增长极、商业 管理为新动能"的业务格局。控股股东的"真金白银"增持，不仅向资本市场传递了对公司长期价值的认 可，更以实际行动提振投资者信心，为零售板块的估值修复注入强心针。（秦声） 此次增持的深层逻辑，与宏观政策导向高度契 ...

风险 需求回暖慢于预期，原材料价格波动，子板块市场竞争加剧。 Text 正文 白酒：报表调整进入后段，板块或在上半年迎拐点 今年白酒行业需求延续弱景气，加上二季度新条例出台，白酒供需两端经历很大冲击，行业开始进入渠道库存去化，报表出清的调整后段，我们预计2026 年白酒报表有望出清改善，上行拐点逐步清晰。 需求端我们认为政策影响会持续减弱，消费场景在大幅压制的基础上会迎来稳步修复，同时促进消费政 策的深化有望驱动需求提升，收入在今年低基数下26年上半年同比有望转正，同时行业开始迎来梯次修复。供给端以创新拓展增量为主线，我们预计库存 隐患将基本解除，其中以用户需求为出发点的创新预计进一步增加，更多企业会拥抱即时零售等线上渠道。 研判一：从消费场景看，政策对政商务需求造成的负向冲击正边际弱化，加之宴席等大众需求偏刚性，1H25低基数背景下，2026年白酒动销或修复至同 比转正。 因外部政策冲击，政商务场景在今年二季度受损较深，且影响延续至下半年的中秋国庆旺季，我们估算全年白酒动销同比双位数以上下滑，政 策扰动延后了原先市场对行业基本面在2025年下半年筑底的判断。展望看，我们认为政策对于政商务需求的影响正边际弱化 ...

2025.12. 17 A股三大指数V型反转,创业板领涨,市场在上午呈现窄幅震荡、分化明显的态势,但午后出 现直线拉升,涨幅迅速扩大,上证指数形成"双底"结构,技术上获得支撑。 3623家上涨 涨跌停比 个股呈普涨格局,赚钱效应显著提升,盘面上, 能源金属全天强势, 锂矿方向领涨; 算力硬件概 念股午后崛起,CPO、服务器方向反复活跃;券 商、保险、航空板块涨幅居前。商业航天、海南 自贸区题材回调明显 两市成交额 万亿元 ▲5.05% 散户资金净流入 机构谨慎乐观. 布局侧重防御与长期. 资金重点聚焦科技成长与政策受益赛道,通过宽基ETF和行业主题 ETF逆势布局,AI算力、锂电池产业链等领域成为加仓核心,同时保留部分低估值消费、金融资产作为组合 安全垫; 散户理性回暖, 结构性参与, 散户资金主要跟随机构主线, 聚焦算力、消费复苏等确定性较强的 板块,以小仓位试错为主,对高波动新股和高位题材保持谨慎,展现出对市场波动的理性适配。 75.85% = 25 1:35 55.22% 上 证 指 数 3870.28 6月1日 7月7日 10月10日 12月3日 2月21日 3月21日 4月8日 5月14日 6月19 ...