固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 利率延续走强，利差表现分化 | 益 | | | | | ――利率债周报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分析师： 王哲语 | | SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 20 日 | | | | | 研 | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | 统计区间：2025 年 6 月 13 日至 2025 年 6 月 19 日 | | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 王哲语 | ⚫ | 重点事件点评 | | | | | 究 | 022-23839051 |  | 月社融主要靠债券类融资支撑，包括政府债券和企业债券融 金融数据：5 | | | | | | | | 资，企业中长贷仍较疲弱，与化债及融资需求不足因素有关。后续可关注 | | | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | | 5 月降息的滞后反馈效果。 | | | | | | |  | 经济数据：5 月生产和投资数据边际回落，"以旧换新"领域的社零数据 | | | | | | ...

据上观新闻，近期网传"上海国补618后结束"，走访上海苏宁易购等线下门店发现，"国补""市补"均正 常发放，云闪付每日7:00—23:00可领券，消费者可通过云闪付领券或直接享受补贴。线上平台如京 东，定位上海后，下单仍能享受补贴，系统会自动折算"市补"，部分适老化产品市补达30%。网络上 出现"最高补贴40%"的帖子也不属实，实际上大部分产品的补贴都在15%和20%。目前上海补贴活动 未现暂停迹象，市民可通过正规渠道放心选购符合条件的产品。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that JD.com and Meituan are expected to experience the most significant downward adjustment in profitability for the second quarter of this year, primarily due to increased competition in the online trading platform sector [1] - The report highlights that multiple platforms are investing over 10 billion RMB in the food delivery and instant retail sectors to develop logistics fulfillment systems, enhance user awareness, and change consumption habits [1] - The article notes that the ongoing subsidies during the summer tea and coffee sales peak are likely to continue, further impacting profitability forecasts for the mentioned companies [1]

Consumption and Retail - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2024, boosted by subsidies in home appliances and communications[1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year growth of 53.0%, while communication equipment grew by 33.0%, with increases of 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[1] - Retail sales of essential goods and dining services grew by 9.6%, 5.3%, and 5.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in essential and service consumption[1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth fell to a year-to-date low of 2.7% year-on-year in May, a decline of 0.8 percentage points for the second consecutive month[2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) dropped to a six-month low of 4.9%, down by 0.9 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, deepening by 2.2 percentage points, marking the lowest since October 2024[2] - New housing starts and completions fell by 18.2% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector[2] - Housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing down to 6.2%[2] - The textile industry, significantly impacted by previous high tariffs, saw a notable decline of 2.3 percentage points compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.6%[2] - Export-oriented industries such as automotive and electronics maintained growth rates above 10%, with increases of 11.6%, 10.2%, and 11.0% year-on-year[2] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a "two strong, two weak" scenario, with robust durable goods consumption and a slowdown in real estate and traditional infrastructure investment[2] - A potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market, along with an expected increase in consumer subsidies of 200 billion yuan to counteract potential export declines[2] - The central government's fiscal expansion is likely to be a key source of incremental policy support in the second half of the year[2]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速回升创阶段新高，家电通讯补贴效果强化。5 月社会消费品 零售总额同比增长 6.4%，较前月回升 1.3 个百分点，创 2024 年以来阶段性 新高。家电通讯两大类消费补贴效果再度得到强化是主要推升因素，当月 家电音像、通讯器材同比分别增长达 53.0%和 33.0%，增速分别较前月上行 达 14.2 和 13.1 个百分点。房地产市场再度趋弱导致对后地产链条耐用品消 费的持续拖累，汽车尽管同样享受以旧换新补贴但同比 1.1%第二个月低位 徘徊，建筑装潢材料、家具同比增速分别下滑 3.9、1.3 个百分点；此外油 价走低亦拖累石油制品同比跌幅扩大 1.3 个百分点。限额以上必需品、必 需品占比较高的限额以下商品零售、餐饮收入同比分别增长 9.6%、5.3%、 5.9%，分别较 4 月上行 0.7、1.3、0.7 个百分点，显示必需品和餐饮等服务 消费增长稳健。 固定投资增速降至年内新低，房地产和传统基建是两大拖累。5 月固 定资产投资同比 2.7%，连续第二个月回落 0.8 个百分点，降至年内增速新 低。房地产开发投资同比-12.0%，跌幅较前月扩大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data for May indicates a mixed economic outlook, with M1 growth reaching a one-year high but a significant decrease in liquidity, suggesting ongoing issues with consumer and investment sentiment [1][2][4]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth increased by 2.3%, reaching a new high for the year, but a month-on-month decrease of 230.7 billion indicates reduced liquidity for businesses and households [1]. - M2 growth stands at 7.9%, reflecting a stable monetary supply [1]. Social Financing - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, maintaining an 8.7% growth rate [5]. - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with an increase of 1.4633 trillion, accounting for 64% of the total new social financing [9][10]. Loan Dynamics - New loans in May totaled 620 billion, a decrease of 330 billion year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [12]. - The reluctance of both businesses and households to borrow is attributed to overcapacity and weak demand, with consumer loans also declining [13][14]. Consumer Subsidies - Local governments are pausing national subsidies due to budget constraints, with over 210 billion of the planned 300 billion already consumed by mid-year [16][17]. - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer incentives [17]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with medium to long-term loans for housing increasing by 746 billion, indicating a resurgence in homebuyer demand [19]. - However, the market remains cautious, with a significant portion of potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unstable price expectations [21]. Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to occur in phases, starting with stabilizing transaction volumes, followed by improvements in second-hand property sales, and ultimately leading to increased new property sales [24][26][27].

Core Insights - The core focus of the article is on JD.com's strategic implementation of national subsidies during the 2025 618 shopping festival, which aims to enhance consumer engagement and stimulate purchasing behavior through combined discounts and promotional activities [2][10]. Group 1: Subsidy Mechanism and Consumer Engagement - JD.com has upgraded its subsidy mechanism by introducing the "National Subsidy Surprise Coupon," allowing consumers to stack national subsidies with JD's platform discounts, creating a multiplier effect on savings [2][4]. - The national subsidy program covers 29 provinces and cities, involving over 3,000 merchants and more than 200,000 products across 1,600 categories, ensuring comprehensive market coverage [4][10]. - The company emphasizes service enhancements, including free delivery for large appliances in remote areas, addressing consumer pain points and improving the overall shopping experience [4][10]. Group 2: Marketing Strategies and Brand Collaboration - JD.com has innovatively crafted a series of differentiated marketing strategies to generate buzz around the national subsidy campaign, including suspenseful promotional content and large-scale offline displays [5][8]. - The platform has united nearly 100 leading brands to participate in the national subsidy initiative, offering layered discounts that amplify consumer benefits and reinforce JD's position as the primary entry point for national subsidies [8][10]. - A comprehensive advertising strategy has been deployed, targeting over 50 major cities and utilizing various high-traffic locations to ensure widespread consumer reach and engagement [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Industry Innovation - The integration of national subsidies with JD's marketing capabilities is seen as a significant move to stimulate domestic consumption, especially in the context of current economic challenges [10]. - JD.com's innovative practices in the subsidy marketing space are breaking traditional promotional molds, showcasing new marketing approaches that could influence the broader industry [10].

Core Insights - Meituan's flash purchase platform launched additional subsidies for 3C digital products during the "618" shopping festival, enhancing consumer purchasing incentives in Shenzhen [1] - The Shenzhen government's initiative to boost consumption includes support for trade-in programs for various consumer goods, which has positively impacted the local market [1] Group 1: Subsidy Details - The platform offers an additional subsidy ranging from 200 to 600 yuan on top of a 15% discount for mobile phones, tablets, and smart wearable devices [1] - Major brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Apple are included in the subsidy program [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The implementation of trade-in programs has significantly increased the demand for digital appliances in Shenzhen, stimulating local consumption [1] - Meituan aims to promote sales in physical stores by providing real monetary subsidies during the "618" event, thereby invigorating the Shenzhen consumer market [1] Group 3: Pricing Examples - After applying the subsidies, the price for a "12GB+256GB Xiaomi 15" phone is 3189 yuan, while a "12GB+512GB Huawei Pura70 Ultra" phone costs 5499 yuan, both lower than regular prices and competitive with other platforms [2] - Numerous physical stores in Shenzhen are also offering various consumer promotion subsidies, making the purchasing prices attractive [2]

Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]

"真金白银"的优惠带火了消费人气。2025年，仪陇县家电以旧换新商品的品类由2024年的8类增加到18类，目前已带动消费超7000万元。 央视网消息：2025年以来，消费品以旧换新政策持续加力，带动商品消费明显提升。在四川，随着以旧换新消费补贴政策的实施，不少地 方的消费市场呈现出新活力。 在四川仪陇县一家家电销售店内，消费者邓芙容正在选购空调。得益于以旧换新政策和厂家补贴等其他优惠政策，邓女士购买的这台一级能耗 的空调便宜了不少。 在天水市秦州区藉口镇的一家电器店内，销售人员给村民们介绍家电的性能和以旧换新的补贴政策，实惠的价格让不少村民们动心了。 2025年前5个月，渠县实体门店家电和手机等电子产品共销售超1万台，累计消费超4000万元，市民享受各类补贴超500万元。 以旧换新进乡村 叠加优惠促消费 2025年以来，消费品以旧换新政策持续加力，不少地方也陆续将这一优惠政策推向农村。在甘肃天水市的农村地区，那里迎来了以旧换新的消 费热潮，商家们还追加额外补贴，吸引消费者选购心仪的产品。 而在四川渠县，凡购买电视机、电冰箱、空调等绿色智能新家电的消费者，除了按实际成交价格的10%给予一次性补贴外，商家还另外为 ...