Core Viewpoint - The transition from pre-sale to actual housing sales is gaining momentum in China's real estate market, driven by government policies and market demand, indicating a shift towards a new sales model that emphasizes immediate availability and quality assurance for buyers [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - Since May, three key developments have sparked discussions on actual housing sales: new regulations in Henan province mandating actual sales for newly developed properties, the national financial regulatory authority's commitment to introduce financing systems compatible with new real estate models, and many companies promoting actual housing as a selling point [1]. - Over 30 provinces have introduced supportive policies for actual housing sales since the end of 2022, with cities like Hefei and Zhengzhou initiating pilot programs, and regions like Hainan and Xiong'an fully implementing actual sales [1]. - The proportion of actual housing sales in the residential market has increased from 12.7% in 2020 to 30.8% in 2024, reflecting a growing acceptance of this sales model [1]. Group 2: Benefits for Buyers - Actual housing sales provide a significant advantage for buyers by allowing them to see the property before purchase, thus avoiding issues related to off-plan sales such as discrepancies in property condition and delays in delivery [2]. - This model enhances the sense of security for buyers, as they can enjoy immediate occupancy and associated amenities, while also accelerating inventory turnover [2]. - The visible quality of homes can lead to a premium in core urban areas, where actual housing may command higher prices due to perceived value [2]. Group 3: Challenges for Developers - The shift to actual housing sales tests developers' comprehensive capabilities, including their development models, cash flow management, and product quality [2]. - The cash flow impact is significant, as the return on investment is delayed by 2 to 3 years compared to pre-sale models, necessitating a shift in financing strategies from short-term to long-term [2]. - Developers must abandon speed-focused strategies in favor of meticulous management and product enhancement, establishing a quality control system throughout the development process [2]. Group 4: Necessary Support Measures - To address potential challenges such as increased buyer costs and longer capital recovery periods for developers, supportive policies are essential [3]. - A dual-track system of "actual sales + pre-sales" should be established, with tailored measures for different cities, such as tax incentives for buyers in areas with high inventory [3]. - Diverse financing channels should be developed, including specialized loans for actual housing projects and adjustments to tax policies to alleviate financial burdens on developers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The city of Xinyang in Henan has become the first in China to fully implement a "current housing sales" policy, which requires that properties must be completed and pass inspection before they can be sold, effectively overturning the traditional pre-sale model [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy mandates that newly sold land must be sold as completed properties, meaning developers can only sell homes after they are built and inspected [3]. - Existing projects that have already started construction can still sell under the old pre-sale rules, creating a transitional phase for the market [3]. - This shift aims to reduce risks for homebuyers, as it minimizes the chances of unfinished projects and fraud [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Xinyang's real estate market is under significant pressure, with new home sales area expected to decline by 7.8% in 2024, and real estate investment plummeting by 16.2% [4]. - The city faces a severe population issue, with a net outflow of 2.79 million people, leading to a situation where one in three residents is leaving for work elsewhere [4]. - The number of newborns has drastically decreased from 89,000 in 2019 to just 37,000 in 2023, indicating a demographic crisis [4]. Group 3: National Trends - Over 30 provinces and cities across China have begun experimenting with current housing sales since late 2022, indicating a growing trend [6]. - The proportion of current housing sales nationwide has surged from 10% in 2020 to 32% by February 2025, marking a ten-year high [7]. - However, the transition to widespread current housing sales faces challenges, particularly due to the financial strain on developers, as construction timelines extend from two years to four or five years [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" is evident, with an increasing inventory of unsold homes leading to longer sales cycles [9]. - In Xinyang, the inventory turnover period is projected to be 20 months, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [9]. - The current housing sales model may lead to price differentiation, with premium properties in major cities seeing price increases, while weaker markets may experience accelerated market clearing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, on the macro - level, the national economy maintained stable growth in April. Fundamentally, soda ash device fluctuated slightly, with supply decreasing narrowly due to planned maintenance in Qinghai and expected maintenance in the middle and late period. Downstream demand was tepid, with more wait - and - see sentiment, mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. High inventory pressure persisted, suppressing price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies for soda ash [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the overall profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil decreased slightly due to falling spot prices while production remained stable. On the demand side, there was a lack of positive news, and demand remained weak. Some original sheet enterprises might operate flexibly and offer discounts to avoid high - inventory pressure. The futures price was close to the production cost, and cost support might work in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips for glass [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1,288 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass was 254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The position volume of the soda ash main contract was 1,465,721 hands, down 32,407 hands; the position volume of the glass main contract was 1,484,264 hands, up 1,681 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders was - 270,580, up 10,693; the net position of the top 20 glass traders was - 164,811, up 6,861 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash were 2,317 tons, down 453 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass were 3,568 tons, down 10 tons [2]. - The price difference between the September and January soda ash contracts was 9 yuan, up 3 yuan; the price difference between the September and January glass contracts was - 54 yuan, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash was 1,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of East China light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets was 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China glass sheets was 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of soda ash was 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of glass was 51 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants was 80.27%, down 7.47 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 75%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass was 15.63 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines was 222, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 168.75 tons, down 2.45 tons; the inventory of glass enterprises was 68,082,000 weight boxes, up 522,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of the newly started area of real estate was 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; the cumulative value of the completed area of real estate was 13,060.27 million square meters, up 4,296.27 million square meters [2]. - From January to April, the state - owned land use right transfer income was 934 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4% [2]. Industry News - Guangdong encourages local governments to support farmers in buying houses in cities by issuing housing subsidies, housing vouchers, etc [2]. - Shantou plans to supply 161.4 hectares of housing land and renovate 58 old communities in 2025 [2]. - Shanghai's housing and urban - rural construction and management commission investigated the housing provident fund situation of some enterprises [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the importance of the current housing sales model in the real estate sector, predicting that various regions will gradually implement pilot policies and supporting measures for current housing sales, which can help stabilize housing prices and mitigate delivery risks [1] Group 1: Institutional Changes - The evolution of China's housing system has transitioned through three stages: "welfare housing - pre-sale of commercial housing - pilot current housing sales." The pre-sale system has effectively addressed housing shortages and financing challenges, supporting long-term rapid development of the real estate industry [1] - The shift in policy focus towards "ensuring delivery and preventing risks" has led to the gradual promotion of the current housing sales system, with 6 provinces and 32 cities already issuing relevant details since 2024 [1] Group 2: Current Status - Since 2021, the proportion of current housing sales in the total sales area of commercial residential properties has been on the rise, reaching 32.7% in Q1 2025, an increase of 22.5 percentage points from the low point in 2020 [3] - Several regions have introduced measures to support current housing sales, including financing support, tax reductions, and simplified approval processes, with expectations for further measures to encourage current housing sales [3] Group 3: Impact of Current Housing Sales - Current housing sales are expected to delay the conversion of land to housing, reducing new supply and stabilizing housing prices, particularly in lower-tier cities with longer inventory digestion periods [4] - The current housing sales model may lead to a decrease in land auction enthusiasm and a decline in land prices, prompting developers to consider thicker safety margins when acquiring land [4] - The model requires higher product quality, operational efficiency, and financing capabilities from developers, potentially accelerating industry consolidation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of immediate housing sales is an important exploration in constructing a new model for real estate development, but it poses challenges for real estate companies in terms of cash flow and operational capacity [1] Group 1: Transition from Pre-sale to Immediate Sale - Transitioning from the pre-sale system to immediate housing sales may require a transitional period, and a one-size-fits-all approach is not suitable [1] - The real estate industry needs to find a balance between promoting immediate sales and ensuring stable development for companies [1] Group 2: Financial Support and Regulation - Increased financial support for real estate developers is necessary; with more ample development funds, companies will face less pressure and be more motivated to promote immediate sales [1] - The promotion of immediate sales should be combined with strengthened regulation of pre-sale funds to prevent fund diversion and delivery risks, thereby protecting the rights of homebuyers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent measures implemented in Xinyang, Henan Province, mandate that newly developed residential properties must be sold as completed units, marking a significant shift from the traditional pre-sale system in China's real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - The shift to completed unit sales is driven by a changing supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market, leading to increased competition among developers [2][3]. - The pre-sale system has been criticized for contributing to poor construction quality and delivery risks, as developers often lack incentives to enhance quality once they receive payment upfront [1][2]. Group 2: Benefits of Completed Unit Sales - Completed unit sales provide greater protection for buyers, ensuring that what they see is what they get, thus safeguarding their rights [1][2]. - This sales model compels developers to focus on quality and shift from rapid construction to more refined operations, potentially leading to a higher standard of housing [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Support and Implementation - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting in 2024 emphasized the need for reform in housing sales, advocating for the promotion of completed unit sales and improved regulation of pre-sale funds [3]. - Financial support for developers is crucial to facilitate the transition to completed unit sales, as it alleviates the pressure on their cash flow and encourages participation in this new model [3].

大金融政策和业绩展望 20250520 摘要 • 资本市场增量资金确定性增强，主要来自中长期资金入市，如保险资金增 配权益市场和央行互换便利工具扩容试点，为权益市场带来 1,400 亿增量 资金，IPO 政策变化值得关注。 • 非银行金融机构受益于交易量改善，去年四季度至今年一季度业绩明显提 升，全年 ROE 预计维持高位，但同比增速或将下滑，高质量发展优先于增 长，稳定息差和风险控制至关重要。 • 券商 PB 处于中位数水平，估值上行需等待市场修复和政策支持；保险行 业估值修复空间更大，成本下降和收益率恢复是关键，推荐优质权重股及 红筹股，如人保财险、江苏金租等。 • 现房销售拉长房企现金流回笼时间，降低周转率和 IRR，增加资金占用， 压制净利率，中小项目受影响尤为显著，土地价款和税收延期支付等配套 政策或可缓解冲击。 • 全国现房住宅销售占比显著增加，2024 年达 33%，部分原因是小城市市 场弱势和保障性住房约束，现有 4 亿平方米现房库存压力巨大，优质房企 或受益于行业资金壁垒提高。 • 招商银行作为沪深 300 权重股，受益于主动型基金配置比例重构，高股息 优势使其内生增长稳定，无需再融资，股息 ...

本报记者 李凯旋 北京报道 楼市"小阳春"行情没能持续。5月19日，国家统计局发布了今年4月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况统计数据。4月 份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比持平或略降，同比降幅则是继续收窄。 房屋开竣工及施工数据尚未出现回暖苗头。数据显示，前4月，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积为620315万平米，同 比下降9.7%。其中，住宅施工面积为431937万平米，下降10.1%。房屋新开工面积为17836万平米，下降23.8%； 房屋竣工面积为15648万平米，下降16.9%。 业内认为，当前，房价出现了调整期，开发投资数据尚无明显改善，市场信心和交易动能均待提高。消息面上， 近期"现房销售"模式备受关注，但其究竟是否适合立刻大范围执行则被广泛讨论。 房价出现调整 国家统计局发布的数据显示，4月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。其中，北 京和上海分别上涨0.1%和0.5%，广州和深圳则是分别下降0.2%和0.1%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比持 平，与上月相同，三线城市则是环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。 58安居客研究院院长张波对《华夏时报》记者表示，4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators stable and others showing fluctuations. For example, GDP growth remained stable in Q1 2025, while manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in April [1]. - The commodity market has various developments, including adjustments in oil prices, potential supply - demand changes in metals, and progress in energy and agricultural sectors [2][3][6][7]. - In the financial market, there are significant changes in bond yields, exchange rates, and stock market trends, influenced by factors such as monetary policy, trade policies, and corporate events [19][24][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in April 2025 dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: Business activity in April 2025 was 50.4%, lower than 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1]. - Social financing scale increment in April 2025 was significantly lower than the previous month, at - 658 billion yuan compared to 5896.1 billion yuan in March [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to be cut by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19, 2025, the fifth decrease this year [2]. - After the mutual tariff cuts between China and the US, freight volume between the two countries has recovered and increased, and US merchants are seeking new cooperation in China [2][11]. - Anti - dumping duties will be imposed on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, the EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting from May 19, 2025 [2]. 3.2.2 Metal - The London Metal Exchange plans to set a position limit to curb excessive speculation [3]. - With the upcoming US copper and aluminum tariffs, the US is experiencing a rush to import copper, with imports surging from about 70,000 tons per month to 500,000 tons per month [3]. - Morgan Stanley believes that the global copper and aluminum markets will be in a state of supply - demand balance to oversupply in 2025 [3]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hyundai Steel will close its rebar factory in Incheon, South Korea, in April [4]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's first offshore CCUS well has been drilled in the Enping 15 - 1 platform in the South China Sea, with the potential to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [6]. - The construction of the 2 - gigawatt CNGD Delingha solar - thermal storage integrated project in Qinghai is in full swing [6]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's non - fossil energy power generation capacity reached 2 billion kilowatts for the first time, accounting for 58.8% of the total power generation capacity [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The spring sowing of grain in China has covered over 35 million mu, with progress similar to last year. Early rice seedlings are over half - grown, and nearly 10% has been transplanted [7]. - In 2024, the global coffee price soared by 38.8%, and Brazil's domestic coffee price increased by nearly 40%, affecting the cooperation model between international buyers and Brazilian exporters [7]. - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the number of pigs and piglets in the US is 74.512 million [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank net - withdrew 475.1 billion yuan from the open market last week, and 486 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature this week [9]. - On May 16, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 2.95 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release April economic data on Monday, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the economic situation [10]. - Financial regulators have expressed support for Beijing's development in the financial sector, including promoting technology finance and strengthening the function of the national financial management center [10]. - The pilot of spot - housing sales is being promoted, but the timing for full implementation is not yet mature [10][11]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and most bond yields increased. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates for deposit - taking institutions rose significantly [19]. - The issuance of two batches of technological innovation bonds by New Hope Group and Tongwei Co., Ltd. was successful, with issuance scales of 500 million yuan each [14]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2037 on May 16, up 95 points from the previous trading day, and rose 424 points last week [24]. - The US dollar index rose 0.15% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies declined [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that after the Sino - US Geneva talks, bilateral tariff cuts will reduce the risk of a US economic recession and make the Fed more concerned about inflation [26]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income argues that credit demand is still bottoming out in April, and the loose monetary policy environment may continue [26]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market has been performing well this year, and a major new energy company will list on the HKEX on May 20, making Hong Kong the world's leading IPO market in terms of fundraising [29]. - Since May, the A - share market has seen increasing institutional research, with a focus on high - end manufacturing, semiconductors, and healthcare [29]. - CITIC Construction Investment maintains a range - bound view of the A - share market but raises the oscillation center to near the half - year line [30].

上周五，标普500指数五连涨，道指抹平年内跌幅；黄金创半年最惨一周。 美国失去最后一个AAA评级，穆迪下调美信用评级至Aa1，担忧政府赤字。 关税担忧拖累美国消费者信心创纪录次低，特朗普再促美联储降息，并批评沃尔玛以关税为由涨 价。 俄乌三年来首次直接谈判结束，乌称"毫无成果"，俄方称对谈判总体感到满意；特朗普：19日将 分别与普京和泽连斯基通话。 中国3月美债持仓降189亿美元，英国成美债第二大债主。 中国证监会修改《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，建立重组股份对价分期支付机制，并新设 重组简易审核程序。 中共中央、国务院印发《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》，要求工作餐不得提供高档菜肴，不 得提供香烟，不上酒；公务用车应选用国产车，优先选用新能源汽车。 中国住建部主管媒体：从目前房地产市场形势看，全面推行现房销售时机并不成熟。 环球时报：媒体称英伟达计划在上海建研究中心，"将聚焦中国客户定制化需求"；参考消息：报 道称英伟达将调整对华芯片出口。 OpenAI的全球版"星际之门"可能首站花落阿联酋，OpenAI、英伟达被爆参建5GW数据中心。 提醒：中国周一将公布4月工业产出、零售销售等数据。 ...