Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of "current housing sales" policies in cities like Jingmen and Xinyang indicates a shift towards promoting immediate sales of newly developed properties, with a focus on improving market stability [1][10][12] - The trend of increasing current housing sales is driven by buyer preferences for tangible products and the accumulation of inventory due to slower investment growth, particularly in lower-tier cities [2][12] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of policy support to stabilize the real estate sector, suggesting a potential turning point in the industry [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Current Housing Sales Policy - Jingmen is the only pilot city in Hubei for current housing sales, with policies requiring new land sales to prioritize this sales model starting January 1, 2026 [1][12] - The policy aims to enhance market stability and reduce inventory, with a notable decrease in available inventory and a reduction in the de-stocking cycle [1][12] 2. Market Overview - New housing transactions for the week totaled 3.82 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.65%, but an improvement of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][17] - The second-hand housing market saw transactions of 1.75 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 10.38%, indicating a weakening trend [3][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [4][14] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [4][14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the real estate market is returning to a downward trend, with sales expected to decline without new policies, projecting a decrease in sales revenue by 5.8% and sales area by 3.6% for 2025 [2][3][90] - The report highlights that the current inventory supply-demand relationship has not improved significantly, with an estimated 14% of excess idle land potentially being absorbed if all recovery plans are implemented [3][82] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market, particularly focusing on inventory reduction strategies such as land recovery and urban village renovations [10][12][13] Group 2 - The investment strategy suggests that companies with strong land acquisition capabilities, high-quality land reserves, and strong product offerings are likely to stand out during the market bottoming process, recommending firms like China Jinmao, China Resources Land, and Greentown China [4][8] - The report anticipates a continued decline in real estate investment, projecting a decrease of 9.3% for 2025, driven by both construction and land acquisition costs [91] - The report notes that the new housing regulations aim to improve the quality of residential buildings, which is expected to positively impact demand for high-quality housing in the long term [17][70] Group 3 - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes in first-tier cities has shown some resilience, with cumulative transaction areas in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases [22][34] - The report outlines that the overall housing market is under pressure, with new home prices showing a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in the first five months of 2025, while second-hand home prices have decreased by 6.3% [45][53] - The land market is experiencing a divergence, with land prices in high-tier cities increasing significantly, while lower-tier cities are seeing a decline in land transaction volumes [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing push for "existing house sales" in China's real estate market, highlighting the challenges and complexities involved in implementing such policies effectively [2][12]. Group 1: Current Policies and Trends - Hubei Jingmen has announced a policy to promote existing house sales starting in 2026, reflecting a growing recognition of the issues surrounding pre-sale housing [2]. - Over 30 provinces and cities in China have introduced policies related to existing house sales, with notable examples including Hainan and Xiong'an New Area [5][6]. - However, the actual implementation of these policies remains limited, with many being labeled as "pilot" programs or only applicable to "certain projects" [6][11]. Group 2: Challenges in Implementation - The term "principle" in policy discussions raises questions about flexibility and exceptions for developers, indicating potential difficulties in enforcing existing house sales [7]. - Developers face significant financial burdens as they must complete construction before selling, which is challenging in a sluggish real estate market [8][10]. - The cash flow issues for developers are exacerbated by the slow return on investment from existing house sales compared to pre-sales, which allow for immediate cash collection [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that a comprehensive shift to existing house sales is unlikely in the short term due to the complex relationships between developers, banks, and local governments [12][13]. - It emphasizes the need for a change in the overall financing model in the real estate sector to support the transition to existing house sales [13]. - The sentiment is that while the push for existing house sales is gaining traction, it may take a long time before it becomes a widespread reality [16].

Core Viewpoint - The number of billion-dollar real estate companies in China is sharply declining, with only a few remaining amidst a cooling new housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - In the first half of 2025, only three companies—Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas—achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with sales figures of 133.61 billion yuan, 122.11 billion yuan, and 114.12 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The overall sales performance indicates that by the end of 2025, it is estimated that only seven companies may reach the billion-dollar sales mark [2]. Group 2: New Housing Market Trends - The new housing market is experiencing a downturn, with a 2.9% year-on-year decrease in the sales area of newly built commercial housing from January to May 2025, and a 3.8% decline in sales revenue [3]. - The sales of pre-sold properties fell by 10.0%, while the sales of existing homes increased by 13.2% during the same period, indicating a preference for existing homes over new constructions [3]. Group 3: Market Segmentation and Pricing - The demand for homes in the 90-120 square meter range remains dominant, but there is an increasing interest in larger units (120-140 square meters and 180-220 square meters), reflecting a shift towards both first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions [6]. - In major cities, such as Shanghai, high-end projects are seeing strong demand, with some properties selling out quickly, while peripheral areas face significant challenges with low buyer interest [5]. Group 4: Land Market Dynamics - The residential land market is showing signs of recovery, with a nearly 30% year-on-year increase in land transfer fees across 300 cities, and an average premium rate of 10.2% [7]. - Core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are experiencing high demand for quality land parcels, with significant premium rates achieved during land auctions [8][9].

又一地发布楼市新政。 其中，湖北荆门发布19条稳楼市新政，包括购买地下停车位、商业办公用房按契税实缴额度给予补助，鼓励优 先采用房票安置或"以购代建"方式安置，2026年1月1日起新出让土地开发的商品房原则上实行现房销售等。 根据中指研究院监测，上半年（截至6月25日）全国超160省市（县）出台优化政策超340条。其中，各地调整 公积金政策超150条。 业内人士认为，6月13日国常会为市场释放了政策进一步加力的积极信号，下半年预计将全力落实已出台政 策，推动市场止跌回稳。 荆门发布19条稳楼市新政 日前，荆门市印发《关于持续巩固中心城区房地产市场稳定态势的政策措施》，推出6方面19条针对性举措， 多维度促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。 其中提出，加快地下停车位销售，居民购买地下停车位，网签商品房买卖合同、取得契税完税凭证的，由所购 地下停车位所在区按契税实缴额度给予100%补助。鼓励购买商业办公用房，在中心城区购买新建商业办公用 房用于非经营用途，网签商品房买卖合同、取得契税完税凭证的个人，由所购商业办公用房所在区按契税实缴 额度给予50%补助。 同时，推行房票安置，城市基础设施建设和城市更新过程中涉及到对被征迁 ...

近日，湖北省荆门市出台《关于持续巩固中心城区房地产市场稳定态势的政策措施》，明确提出"有序 推进现房销售"。该措施具体规定，对新出让的优质房地产开发用地，优先采用现房销售模式开发； 2026年1月1日起，新出让土地开发的商品房，原则上实行现房销售。 此次荆门推出6方面19条针对性举措，多维度促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。其中，优化房屋征迁安置 政策提出，推行房票安置。城市基础设施建设和城市更新过程中涉及到对被征迁居民进行安置的，按照 先安置、后搬迁的原则，鼓励优先采用房票安置或"以购代建"方式安置。 放宽房票限制条件。房票核发实行实名登记备案，被征收人及其近亲属（主要指配偶、父母、子女、兄 弟姐妹、祖父母、外祖父母、孙子女）可以作为房票的使用人。探索在城区范围内建立"房源超市"，支 持房票在城区范围内打通使用。被征收人满足在本地拥有一套住房的前提下，允许房票用于购置公寓、 车位、商办等非住宅类商品房。 2023年，住建部确定荆门为湖北省唯一的现房销售试点城市。试点工作实施方案制定后，2024年4月， 荆门首批两个试点项目楚荣·和府和城控·易居苑启动建设。 去年10月，荆门出台《荆门市安居工程实施方案》，以"清零 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Jingmen has introduced 19 new policies to stabilize the real estate market, aiming for a healthy development of the sector amid ongoing national efforts to optimize housing policies [1][2][4]. Group 1: New Policies Introduced - The new measures include 100% subsidy for residents purchasing underground parking spaces and 50% subsidy for buying commercial office spaces in the central urban area [2]. - The policies encourage the use of housing vouchers for resettlement during urban infrastructure projects, allowing for more flexible usage of these vouchers [2][3]. - From January 1, 2026, newly sold residential properties on newly developed land will primarily be sold as completed units, with a gradual increase in pre-sale thresholds for new projects [3]. Group 2: National Context and Market Outlook - Over 340 optimization policies have been introduced across more than 160 provinces and cities in China as of June 25, with over 150 adjustments to housing fund policies [4][5]. - The State Council's meeting on June 13 signaled a stronger push for policy implementation to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks [4][5]. - Analysts expect that the second half of the year will see a full implementation of these policies, with additional measures to stimulate housing demand and improve market conditions [4][5].

智通财经7月3日电，湖北省荆门市推动房地产市场平稳健康发展领导小组办公室印发《关于持续巩固中 心城区房地产市场稳定态势的政策措施》，其中提出，有序推进现房销售。对新出让的优质房地产开发 用地，优先采用现房销售模式开发。2026年1月1日起，新出让土地开发的商品房，原则上实行现房销 售。按照"新老有别"的原则，逐步配套提高商品房预售门槛，2025年8月1日后取得施工许可证的项目， 工程形象进度应达到建筑主体结构封顶。 湖北荆门：2026年1月1日起 新出让土地开发的商品房原则上实行现房销售 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，近日，湖北荆门出台《关于持续巩固中心城区房地产市场稳定态势的政策措施》， 明确提出"有序推进现房销售"。该措施具体规定：对新出让的优质房地产开发用地，优先采用现房销售 模式开发；2026年1月1日起，新出让土地开发的商品房，原则上实行现房销售。 跟踪房地产政策调整 +订阅 湖北荆门：明年起新开发商品房，原则上实行现房销售 ...

Core Insights - The proportion of completed housing sales is significantly increasing in various cities, particularly in Shenzhen, where the share of completed sales reached 30.9% in the first half of 2025, up 6.3 percentage points from the second half of 2024, and only 14.6% in the first half of 2023 [2][3] Group 1: Current Market Trends - The trend towards completed housing sales is driven by longer sales cycles for new properties, leading some pre-sale projects to transition to completed sales [2][3] - In June 2025, the proportion of completed housing sales in Shenzhen reached 42%, indicating a strong market shift [2] - The increase in completed sales is also attributed to policy support advocating for "guaranteed delivery" and the promotion of completed housing sales [3][4] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Various regions are actively exploring and implementing policies to promote completed housing sales, with some cities mandating that newly sold land must be for completed properties [4] - The proportion of completed housing sales in total residential sales has risen from 10.4% in 2021 to 18.7% in 2023, reflecting a growing trend [4] - In the first half of 2024, the area sold as completed housing increased by 23% year-on-year, while pre-sale housing sales decreased by 31% [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift towards completed housing sales is influenced by a combination of policy direction, market logic, and the developmental stage of the industry [5] - Completed housing sales require developers to bear the full financial burden until project completion, increasing both capital and time costs [5]