Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs in the spot market showed a volatile trend today, with the average price rising from 13.53 yuan/kg yesterday to 13.63 yuan/kg today. The futures market also showed a volatile trend. Although the short - term supply pressure has improved, it still exists due to the high inventory level. However, considering the decline in the inventory of ordinary farmers, the overall supply change is relatively limited, and the deep - decline space of prices is also limited. The short - term stabilization of the futures market may be restricted, and the far - month contracts are expected to move in a low - level volatile manner [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - The spot prices of live pigs in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Sichuan increased by 0.10 yuan/kg to 13.62 yuan/kg, while the price in Guangdong decreased by 0.16 yuan/kg to 15.23 yuan/kg. The overall average price increased by 0.1 yuan/kg to 13.63 yuan/kg [3]. 3.2 Futures Price - The futures prices of different contracts also showed a volatile trend. For example, the price of LH01 increased by 95 yuan to 14240 yuan, and the price of LH11 increased by 70 yuan to 13910 yuan [3]. 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged this week compared with last week, at 363 yuan and 1612 yuan respectively [3]. 3.4 Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising increased by 5.10 yuan to 33.95 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased by 5.25 yuan to - 151.80 yuan/head [3]. 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume decreased by 1191 heads to 140803 heads [3]. 3.6 Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between large and standard pigs increased by 0.02 yuan to 0.32 yuan, and other price differences remained unchanged [3]. 3.7 Market Supply and Demand - The supply of scale enterprises increased, while the supply of ordinary farmers decreased. The entry of secondary fattening increased slightly, but the overall number was still limited. The short - term supply pressure improved, but still existed due to the high inventory level. The decline space of prices was limited due to the relatively low absolute price [3][6]. 3.8 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips for far - month contracts. - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell far - month put options [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 2511 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: There are no major fundamental contradictions, and the live pig contract fluctuates and adjusts. On August 22, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was -70 yuan/ton, compared to -135 yuan/ton on August 15 [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads fluctuate and adjust [7][10]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated and adjusted [13]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [15]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuates strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will enhance the market's willingness to increase the weight of pigs [17]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - White Price Difference**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakens, and the cost - performance of frozen products is inferior to that of fresh products [21]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [23]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, and subsequent weight changes should be monitored [25]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample data from different sources continued to increase [27]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows was weak. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market was average [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In July, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in January next year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight decline, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the inventory reduction stage for frozen products, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and the impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

毛利率同比大幅提升，期间费用率同比下降。25H1/25Q2 毛利率为19.02%/19.77%，同比 +11.28pct/+3.23pct，原因是（1）生猪业务成本下降明显；（2）屠宰量及产能利用率同比提升。25H1 期间费用率为6.26%，同比-2.06pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率0.84%/2.37%/1.20%/1.85%，同 比-0.09pct/-0.72pct/-0.34pct/-0.91pct。销售、管理、研发费用率下降是因为收入提升导致费用支出被摊 薄。财务费用率下降是因为借款及债券利息支出减少。 投资建议：根据25H1 经营情况，我们上调盈利预测。预计25~27 年归母净利润为213.77/241.62/295.13 亿元，同比+19.5%/+13.0%/+22.1%，对应PE 为12.8/11.4/9.3 倍。预计公司经营效率将持续提升，维 持"买入"评级。 生猪养殖及屠宰业务经营向好，带动净利润同比大增。生猪养殖业务方面，25H1 公司生猪业务实现营 收754.46 亿元，同比+34.68%。销售生猪4691.0万头，同比+44.84%，其中销售商品猪/仔猪/种猪 3839.4 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, with the supply pressure improving compared to before, but still existing due to the high inventory level. The scale enterprises'出栏量 has continued to tighten, while the ordinary farmers'出栏 progress has slowed down. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm is average, and the follow - up increase in entry enthusiasm is expected to be limited. The futures market is affected by the spot pressure, with the far - month contract having support but the near - month contract facing obvious pressure[2][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Spot Information - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, and the supply was slightly tightened. The scale enterprises'出栏量 continued to tighten, but the overall supply pressure still existed due to the poor overall出栏 completion. The ordinary farmers'出栏 progress slowed down, and there was some pressure on the market to hold back pigs. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm was average, and the size - pig price difference increased slightly[2] Futures Information - The live pig futures market showed an oscillating trend today. The far - month contract was affected by the previous large increase and the current supply pressure, with some downward pressure, but still having support. The near - month contract faced obvious pressure[5] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips in the far - month contract - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage - Options: Sell far - month put options[6]

Core Insights - The company has sold 1.7517 million pigs from January to July 2025, achieving approximately 50% of its target output, and is confident in meeting its established goals for the year [1] - The company plans to implement several measures to ensure steady growth in pig output, including advancing a 300,000-head breeding project, optimizing the sow population structure, and establishing a comprehensive biosecurity system [1] - The company is closely monitoring industry policies and market supply-demand changes, aiming to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs through refined management practices and hedging tools to mitigate market price fluctuations [1] Measures for Production Growth - The company is actively promoting a breeding project in the 37th regiment of the Second Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, expected to be operational in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company aims to optimize the sow population by scientifically selecting and eliminating low-yield sows to improve reproductive performance and production efficiency [1] - A comprehensive biosecurity system will be constructed, covering site selection, disinfection protocols, vaccination, and health monitoring to ensure the health of the pig population [1] Market Strategy - The company is focused on closely monitoring industry policy dynamics and market supply-demand changes [1] - It plans to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs through meticulous breeding management and feed cost control [1] - The company will utilize hedging tools to address market price volatility, thereby strengthening its competitiveness and risk resistance for long-term stable development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in China has reached a ten-year high, leading to impressive performance from convertible bond funds, with over ten thematic funds achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 15% this year, and the top performer reaching nearly 25% [2][6]. Market Performance - As of August 7, the China Convertible Bond Index peaked at 469.56 points, marking a 12.74% increase year-to-date [4]. - The top-performing convertible bond funds include: - Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A with a performance of 24.78% this year [6]. - Other notable funds such as Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A, Oriental Convertible Bond A, and others have growth rates around 20% [6][7]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers attribute the strong performance of convertible bonds to a combination of a favorable interest rate environment and strong market support, which provides a high margin of safety [8]. - The market is expected to maintain a solid bottom, enhancing the holding experience for convertible bonds [8]. Future Outlook - Managers suggest that convertible bond valuations are unlikely to drop to the lows seen in Q3 2024, with expectations of trading within a higher valuation range over the next 3-4 years [10]. - Opportunities are identified in low-priced convertible bonds, with a focus on sectors like technology and new consumption as market conditions evolve [10][11]. - The convertible bond market is anticipated to experience three phases: price recovery of low-priced bonds, balanced valuation expansion, and eventual high volatility and high returns [10].

神农集团（605296）(605296.SH)披露2025年7月养殖业务主要经营数据，于2025年7月份，公司销售生 猪17.47万头，销售收入3.27亿元。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪4.05万头。2025年7月份，公司商 品猪价格呈现上涨趋势，商品猪销售均价14.73元/公斤，比2025年6月份上涨2.65%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 58.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year [1] - The feed sales volume reached 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, nearing the annual target for 2025 [1] - The company is on track to meet its 2030 sales target of 51.5 million tons, with significant growth in various feed segments, including a 43% increase in pig feed sales [1] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with feed sales outside China growing over 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits of 4.963 billion yuan, 5.692 billion yuan, and 6.714 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2%, 14.7%, and 18.0% [2] - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 19 times [2] - Financial indicators show a revenue forecast of 129.547 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 13% year-on-year [4] Business Segments - The seedling business generated 770 million yuan in revenue, while the animal health business achieved 460 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on building capabilities in pig farming and innovating a light-asset model, which is expected to yield considerable profits [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference may strengthen, which will support pig prices. The price of the 2509 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted this week. On July 18, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, down from 455 yuan/ton on July 11 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased slightly while the price decreased [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences were relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted overall. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it will weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat strengthened. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week. Attention should be paid to whether the weight reduction can continue [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and My steel data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was an increase of 2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered live pigs in December this year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of pigs continued to decline by 0.1 yuan/kg today, mainly due to limited slaughter by the farming side and limited downstream acceptance. However, the slaughter weight has not changed significantly. From the perspective of slaughter volume, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month from June to July, mainly supported by the slowdown of winter piglet losses. The group factories stopped large-scale weight reduction this month, and the weight of散户 has been relatively stable. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30%. In terms of replenishment, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets in June was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment. Recently, the spot price has declined. Today, the opening of the 09 contract showed a premium structure with the spot price in Sichuan, and the futures price has declined significantly recently. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price will lack upward momentum under the background of weak consumption and no effective decline in slaughter weight. In the medium term, the supply will return to a loose state after the inventory is repaired in August. Pay attention to the inflection point of the spot price after August [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Price Data in Different Regions - The pig prices in various regions across the country showed a downward trend on July 17, 2025. For example, the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Hunan, it was 13.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan. The national average price was 13.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Futures Contract Data - The prices of LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 futures contracts all increased on July 17, 2025. The price of LH2509 was 14,060 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan; LH2511 was 13,535 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,750 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was 525 yuan on July 17, an increase of 5 yuan, and the spread between LH11 - 01 was -215 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Slaughter and Weight Data - From June to July, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month. The average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [2] Piglet Replenishment Data - In June, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment [2]