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国常会对股市重磅部署
母基金研究中心· 2025-04-19 10:12
国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常务会议,研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干 举措,听取"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置情况汇报,讨论《中华人民共和国社会救助法(草 案)》,审议通过《中华人民共和国植物新品种保护条例(修订草案)》。 会议指出,面对复杂严峻的外部环境,要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署,加力落实《政府工 作报告》明确的政策措施,锚定经济社会发展目标,加大逆周期调节力度,着力稳就业稳外 贸,着力促消费扩内需,着力优结构提质量,做强国内大循环,推动经济高质量发展。要鼓励 企业积极稳定就业,加大职业技能培训力度,扩大以工代赈等支持,加强就业公共服务。要稳 定外贸外资发展,一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度,支持外资企业境内再投资。要促进养 老、生育、文化、旅游等服务消费, 扩大有效投资,大力提振民间投资积极性。 要持续稳定 股市 ,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落 地效率,确保实施效果。 会议指出,"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置工作已取得阶段性进展,要坚持举一反三、标本兼治, 强化日常监管和预防工作,聚焦民生关切强化质量安全监管,进一步压紧压实全链条监管责 任, ...
【招银研究|海外宏观】短暂的平静——美国CPI通胀数据点评(2025年3月)
招商银行研究· 2025-04-11 10:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. CPI inflation data, which fell below market expectations, indicating a potential upcoming "secondary inflation" due to tariff impacts and persistent supply-side pressures [1][4][14]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.4%, while the core CPI fell to 2.8%, both lower than market expectations [1][4]. - Energy prices have sharply declined, significantly contributing to the unexpected drop in inflation, with gasoline prices falling by 6.3% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year [7][10]. - Optional consumption is shrinking, with second-hand car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month, marking the first decline since September 2024 [10]. - Despite the decline in certain sectors, supply-side pressures from housing, labor, and food (notably eggs) remain unchanged, suggesting persistent inflationary support [11][14]. Inflation Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation may rebound above 3% by mid-year due to the delayed effects of tariffs [14][16]. - The labor market remains robust, with certain sectors experiencing high inflation despite overall economic weakness, indicating limited room for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16] . Strategy Recommendations - The article advises caution in going long on long-term U.S. Treasuries and suggests shorting the dollar at higher levels [4][18]. - Current U.S. Treasury yields present some attractiveness for long positions, but market stability should be monitored before entering [18]. - The dollar has seen a significant decline, with the index dropping 1.9% to 100.983, indicating potential opportunities for shorting the currency [17][18].