新华财经北京2月5日电美国国债收益率周三（2月4日）变动不大，长期限美债收益率维持高位震荡，10 年期美债收益率上涨1BP，报4.28%。2年期美债收益率下跌1BP，报3.56%，与10年期美债利差扩大 2BP，收益率曲线继续趋陡。 美国财政部周三公布季度再融资声明，决定维持现有中长期债券发行规模不变，延续"规律且可预测"的 债务管理原则。本季度将发行总计1250亿美元债券，包括580亿3年期、420亿10年期及250亿30年期国 债。 声明打消了市场对政府可能调整发行结构以压低长期借贷成本的猜测。财政部同时表示，正密切关注美 联储短期国债购买计划及私营部门需求，未来政策路径或受新任美联储主席提名影响。 财政部在声明中重申，其仍在评估未来增加附息债券和浮动利率票据拍卖规模的可能性，并将"重点关 注结构性需求趋势，以及各种发行方式的潜在成本与风险"。 摩根士丹利策略师团队在报告中指出，美联储的购买计划降低了财政部向市场"过度供应"短期国债、超 出私人部门吸纳能力的风险。 根据ADP 4日发布的数据，美国1月私营公司仅增加了22,000个岗位，低于2025年12月下调后的37,000个 岗位增长，显著弱于预期。数 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（2月4日），3年期美债收益率跌0.56个基点，报3.632%；5年期美债收益率跌0.17个 基点，报3.830%。 ...

周三纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨1.20个基点，报4.2775%。两年期美债收益率跌0.82个基点， 报3.5614%，北京时间22:45以来持续走低；30年期美债收益率涨2.07个基点，报4.9149%。2/10年期美债 收益率利差涨2.027个基点，报71.410个基点。10年期通胀保值国债收益率涨1.74个基点，至1.9305%， 21:15发布ADP小非农就业报告后出现一波冲高行情——23:00发布ISM非制造业指数后时显著回落；两 年期TIPS收益率涨1.70个基点，至0.7483%；30年期TIPS收益率涨2.12个基点，至2.6365%。（智通财 经） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD index is currently in a narrow consolidation phase, influenced by both policy expectations and geopolitical situations, with no clear breakout anticipated in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a commitment to maintaining its current policy stance, with multiple officials emphasizing that interest rate cuts are not expected in the near term, reinforcing market expectations for a prolonged high-interest rate environment [1] - The stabilization and recovery of U.S. Treasury yields provide solid support for the USD index, acting as a core reliance for bulls and preventing significant downward movement [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical factors, particularly the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, have led to a gradual decline in risk aversion, resulting in a diversion of funds that previously flowed into the USD, which somewhat offsets the positive support from the Federal Reserve's policies [1] - The decline in geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East is also affecting the commodity markets, demonstrating a negative correlation between the USD and commodities, which constrains the upward movement of the USD index [1] - Technical indicators show that the USD index is facing clear resistance and support levels, with both bullish and bearish momentum appearing weak, suggesting a continuation of range-bound trading in the short term [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the mid-term direction of the USD index will be driven by two core variables: the performance of U.S. economic data, which could reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance if it confirms economic resilience, and the evolution of geopolitical situations in the Middle East, where renewed conflict could lead to increased safe-haven buying of the USD [2] - In the short term, the USD index is likely to maintain a range-bound pattern, with the market awaiting clear data and event signals to break the current stalemate between bulls and bears [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices rebounded strongly after two days of significant declines, with spot gold opening above $4,900 and reaching a maximum daily increase of over $320, marking the largest single-day gain since November 2008, closing at $4,946.67 per ounce, up 6.13% [1][4] - Silver also saw a substantial increase, rising over 10% at one point and closing at $85.20 per ounce, up 7.68% [1][4] - The ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to the volatility in gold and silver prices [1][4] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil prices experienced a strong upward movement after a period of consolidation, closing at $63.95 per barrel, up 2.52% [1][4] - Brent crude oil also rose, closing at $69.69 per barrel, up 2.23% [1][4] - The market saw a low opening at $62.22 per barrel, with a subsequent drop to $61.13 before recovering due to support from the upward trend line and the 10-day moving average [6] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The gold market is expected to continue its upward trend, with potential resistance levels identified between $5,100 and $5,320, and support levels between $4,950 and $4,870 [5] - The oil market is also anticipated to maintain its upward trajectory, with resistance levels at $64.6 to $66.2 and support levels at $63.0 to $61.0 [6] - The Nasdaq index showed signs of a potential downturn, closing at $25,306.66, with resistance levels at $25,528 to $25,705 and support levels at $25,100 to $25,000 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ISM reported that the US manufacturing PMI rose from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, marking the first expansion in nearly a year and the highest level since February 2022 [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The US manufacturing sector has been in a state of low activity for the past three years, with very few instances of PMI exceeding 50 [1] - The January PMI data is seen as a positive signal for the economy, but caution is advised due to seasonal factors and ongoing tariff issues [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the manufacturing index, US Treasury yields reached a daily high, and the dollar index accelerated to a one-week high [1] Group 3: Expert Commentary - Susan Spence, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, emphasized the need for caution despite the positive indicators, noting that January is typically a month for inventory replenishment [1] - The report included numerous complaints from executives about tariff and policy uncertainties affecting various industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data indicates that the resilience of the U.S. economy is strengthening, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday showed a significant upward surprise, suggesting improved economic conditions [1] - Despite employment and inventory remaining in contraction territory, the rebound in the employment sub-index indicates that labor constraints on the economy may be easing [1] - Overall, these data reinforce the narrative that U.S. economic growth remains resilient [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 1.4 basis points to 3.582% [1] - The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury increased by 1 basis point to 4.286% [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.279%, while the 2-year yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, closed at 3.586% [1][6] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold reaching an intraday low of $4402.93 before rebounding, ultimately closing down 4.59% at $4660.91 per ounce [1][6] - Silver also saw a decline, hitting an intraday low of $72.28 and closing down 6.97% at $79.23 per ounce [1][6] Group 2: Commodity Price Movements - WTI crude oil opened lower and fell significantly, closing down 5.17% at $62.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped 4.9% to $66.21 per barrel [1][6] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements, contributing to the sell-off in gold and silver following the nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair [1][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold market opened at $4779.2 per ounce, reached a high of $4886, and then fell to a low of $4398.7, closing at $4659.9, indicating potential for a breakout from the current range [2][8] - The crude oil market opened at $64.05, reached a low of $61.45, and closed at $62.39, suggesting a consolidation phase with potential for further movement [3][8] - The Nasdaq index opened at $25405.85, hit a low of $25066.87, and closed at $25759.03, indicating an upward trend with potential for further gains [4][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract falling 0.06% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends, with SHIBOR7, DR007, and GC007 rates declining. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China were mixed, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.79bp to 1.82%. Overseas, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield remained unchanged, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield fell 1.2bp. Due to factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, Fed's policy, and economic data, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, and T2606 decreased, while those of TL2603 and TL2606 increased. The price changes were - 0.004, - 0.010, - 0.030, - 0.025, - 0.060, - 0.100, 0.140, and 0.160 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, - 0.01%, - 0.03%, - 0.02%, - 0.06%, - 0.09%, 0.13%, and 0.14% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 33674, 3970, 57350, 10522, 78497, 20309, 116697, and 17233 respectively. The open interests were 63614, 10586, 130539, 43446, 256467, 45727, 130181, and 46089 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 2638, 642, - 8358, 2305, - 4389, 7500, - 4620, and 2160 respectively [2] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.018, - 0.035, 0.040, and - 0.140 respectively, compared with previous values of - 0.024, - 0.030, 0.000, and - 0.120 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures were 1.1375, 1.365, 1.3435, 1.4487, 1.4027, 1.3704, 0.4891, and 1.5034 respectively, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight was 1.3650%, up 3.7bp; SHIBOR7 was 1.4850%, down 9.5bp; DR001 was 1.4341%, down 7.45bp; DR007 was 1.5427%, down 9.74bp; GC001 was 1.7290%, up 10bp; GC007 was 1.6060%, down 0.8bp; FR001 was 1.46%, down 14bp; FR007 was 1.55%, down 9bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds were 1.28%, 1.30%, 1.38%, 1.57%, 1.69%, 1.82%, 2.29%, and 2.28% respectively, with changes of - 0.94bp, 0.63bp, 0.02bp, - 0.19bp, 0.96bp, 0.79bp, - 1bp, and - 0.5bp respectively. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 38.43bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of US 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, German 2Y, 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and 10Y Treasury bonds were 3.57%, 3.83%, 4.29%, 4.90%, 2.080%, 2.920%, 1.265%, and 2.235% respectively, with changes of 5.0bp, 4.0bp, 3.0bp, 3.0bp, 1.0bp, 0.0bp, 1.4bp, and - 1.2bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads were - 218.6bp, - 225.6bp, - 247.2bp, - 262.0bp, - 69.6bp, - 110.2bp, 11.9bp, and - 41.7bp respectively [2] 3.3 Macro and Policy - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% and paused after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.6%, much higher than expected. The three major manufacturing PMIs in January showed a seasonal decline. The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by real estate development investment. The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal deficit and expenditure in 2026 would remain at a necessary level, and the central bank pointed out that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [3]

在经历连续反弹之后，美元指数进入高位整理阶段。此前累计超过1%的涨幅，为当前走势奠定了较为稳固的基础，使指数在回调时具备一定缓冲空间。 从整体表现看，美元短期内由弱转稳，市场对其阶段性表现的认可度有所提升。 市场情绪的改善是美元走强的重要背景因素之一。近期不确定性下降，有助于风险偏好逐步修复，美元在避险与流动性层面的优势得到强化。这种情绪面的 变化，并非单点事件推动，而是多重因素叠加的结果，为美元提供了额外支撑。 政策预期的调整，直接反映在中长期美债收益率上。收益率的回升或维持高位，提高了美元资产的相对吸引力，对汇率形成结构性支撑。同时，通胀数据也 强化了这一逻辑。最新公布的生产端通胀指标显示，无论是整体还是核心水平，仍处于相对偏高区间，表明上游成本压力尚未明显缓解。 在此背景下，市场对货币政策快速转向的预期受到抑制，美元在主要货币中的相对优势得以延续。短期内，部分投资者倾向于维持美元的基础配置，同时通 过区间交易来应对潜在波动，以平衡收益与风险。 从技术结构来看，美元指数在前期下探后迅速反弹，日线图上形成较为明显的修复形态，价格重新站上短期均线系统之上，显示多头力量正在逐步回归。目 前指数运行在97关口上方 ...