1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issue of slow employment growth in the US is prominent, and the risk of economic stall is increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment in the US from June to August has been continuously below 1%, with a gradual slowdown trend. Given the relationship between GDP, consumption growth, and employment growth, there is a high risk of economic stall if non - farm employment growth further slows. Thus, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the possibility of more than 50BP interest rate cuts within the year is also increasing [2][10]. - The uncertainty of US fiscal balance has increased again. The US Federal Appellate Court recently ruled that most of President Trump's global tariffs are illegal but allowed them to continue until October 14. The US Supreme Court's subsequent ruling still has great uncertainty. If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the US government may seek congressional authorization for tariffs, and this process is also highly uncertain. If most of Trump's tariff policies are cancelled, it will have a significant impact on the US fiscal situation [2][12]. - During the initial stage of the Fed's restart of the interest rate cut cycle, 4% remains an important threshold for the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds. Given the increasing uncertainty of tariff policies, it is not advisable to chase long - term US Treasury bonds. Particular caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds reaches or falls below 4% [2][14]. - The producer price index continues to decline. In the week of September 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork from the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 27.00% year - on - year. The Shandong Vegetable Wholesale Price Index increased by 2.15% week - on - week and decreased by 18.40% year - on - year. The price of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.01% and 0.38% week - on - week respectively. The domestic cement price index decreased by 1.84% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Iron Ore Index decreased by 0.55% week - on - week [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The issue of slow employment growth in the US is prominent, and the risk of economic stall is increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment from June to August has been continuously below 1%, with a slowdown trend. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the possibility of more than 50BP interest rate cuts within the year is increasing [10]. 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources.

9月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年8月末，我国外汇储备规模为33222亿美元，较7月 末上升299亿美元，升幅为0.91%。这是我国外汇储备今年第二次站上3.3万亿美元大关，且创下2016年1 月以来新高。 国家外汇局表示，2025年8月，受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下 跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 我国经济运行稳中有进，展现出强大韧性和活力，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青解读称，8月外汇储备升高背后主要是年初以来美元大幅贬值，美债收益 率大幅走低，以及全球主要股指上涨带动。按不同标准测算，当前我国略高于3万亿美元的外储规模都 处于适度充裕水平。在外部环境波动加大的背景下，适度充裕的外储规模将为保持人民币汇率处于合理 均衡水平提供重要支撑，也能成为抵御各类潜在外部冲击的压舱石。 黄金储备方面，央行连续第10个月增持黄金。央行公布数据显示，8月末黄金储备报7402万盎司(约 2302.28吨)，环比增加6万盎司(约1.86吨)。数据还显示，截至8月末，我国持有黄金储备余 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（9月5日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌7.45个基点报3.507%，3年期 美债收益率跌6.51个基点报3.480%，5年期美债收益率跌6.39个基点报3.582%，10年期美债收益率跌8.46 个基点报4.076%，30年期美债收益率跌9.27个基点报4.760%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields despite expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, attributing this phenomenon to seasonal factors, global market influences, and structural anxieties regarding inflation and debt levels [4]. Group 1: Seasonal Factors - September is a peak month for corporate bond issuance in the U.S., leading to a diversion of funds away from Treasury bonds, which results in decreased demand for U.S. government debt [4]. - Traders returning from vacation are busy reallocating their portfolios, contributing to a temporary lack of interest in U.S. Treasuries, which are perceived as "discounted" assets [4]. Group 2: Global Market Influences - European long-term bonds have seen a decline, with the UK’s 30-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998, creating a domino effect that negatively impacts U.S. Treasury yields [4]. Group 3: Structural Anxieties - Rising tariffs are increasing costs, leading companies to pass on these expenses to consumers, which is expected to drive inflation higher in the coming months, as noted in the Beige Book [4]. - Investors are demanding higher yields to hedge against inflation risks, especially with the U.S. planning to issue $1 trillion in new debt in the third quarter, nearly half of which will be long-term bonds, exacerbating concerns about rising debt levels [4]. - In the short term, if the Federal Reserve signals a series of rate cuts, yields may decrease; however, inflation and debt levels are seen as the primary long-term drivers of market behavior [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield falling by 5.6 basis points to 4.16%, marking the largest decline since disappointing non-farm payroll data in August [1] - The market is anxiously awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with a 99.4% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to concerns that poor data might prompt the Fed to act sooner than expected [3] - Recent actions by the U.S. Treasury, including a Q3 refinancing plan that reduced long-term debt issuance by $50 billion, have provided temporary relief to the market, although future debt issuance could increase by $2 trillion due to Trump's fiscal plans [3] Group 2 - Foreign investments are increasing in the U.S. Treasury market, with net inflows of $12.7 billion in August, particularly from China and Japan, indicating that institutional investors see value in the current yield environment [3] - September is expected to be a volatile month for the bond market, with $310 billion in corporate bonds set to be issued, potentially diverting significant capital [4] - The article warns that upcoming changes in tariff policies could elevate inflation expectations, reminiscent of last October's spike in Treasury yields, which caused substantial losses for investors [4]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The momentum of U.S. economic growth is weakening, evidenced by slowing consumer spending, a struggling manufacturing sector, and a declining real estate market [2][3] - Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, grew only 1.4% in Q2, an improvement from Q1's 0.5% but still below last year's levels [2] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges from tariffs, demand slowdown, and high raw material costs, with a new orders index slightly rebounding to 47.1% but remaining below 50% [2] Group 2: Inflation and Its Impact on Services - High inflation is impacting the service sector, with the ISM services PMI dropping to 50.1%, indicating a near-stagnation in expansion [3] - The services new orders index fell to 50.3%, while the prices index rose to 69.9%, indicating significant price increases that are reducing consumer purchasing power [3] Group 3: Long-term Bond Yields and Inflation Concerns - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising due to investor concerns over persistent inflation, despite a lack of strong economic growth [4] - The core PCE inflation indicator rose to 2.9% in July, indicating sticky inflation, particularly in the service sector [4] Group 4: Tariffs and Consumer Impact - Tariffs have a delayed impact on inflation, with U.S. importers beginning to pass on costs to consumers, expected to rise to over 60% by Q4 [5] Group 5: Debt and Federal Reserve Policy - The U.S. government is facing high debt levels and interest burdens, leading to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [6] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion in net debt in Q3, with long-term bonds making up a significant portion, potentially tightening dollar liquidity [6][8] Group 6: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The combination of fiscal expansion and high inflation is likely to keep long-term bond yields elevated, while short-term yields may decline if the Federal Reserve lowers rates [8] - Investors may face risks with long-term U.S. Treasuries and could consider yield futures as a hedging strategy [8]

周三纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌4.46个基点，报4.2168%，日内交投于4.2984%-4.1993%区 间，北京时间22:00发布美国职位空缺之后短线显著走低。两年期美债收益率跌2.26个基点，报 3.6166%，日内交投于3.6597%-3.6002%区间。 ...

每经AI快讯，周三（9月3日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.68个基点报3.610%，3年期 美债收益率跌2.83个基点报3.579%，5年期美债收益率跌3.12个基点报3.691%，10年期美债收益率跌4.27 个基点报4.217%，30年期美债收益率跌6.15个基点报4.897%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View - The stock market declined today, with almost all industries falling, led by the national defense and military industry, which dropped 5.83%. This was mainly due to the landing of the military parade ceremony, leading to a correction of the previous optimistic pricing. The previous day's large divergence between bulls and bears and the change in sentiment were further verified today. The trading activity of funds decreased significantly, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to around 2.36 trillion yuan, and the basis of stock index futures declined. Overseas, concerns about the UK's fiscal issues intensified, indirectly affecting the sentiment of the US bond market, leading to an increase in US bond yields, a rise in the US dollar index, a depreciation of the RMB, and an increase in market risk aversion. In the short term, the stock market is under pressure due to both sentiment correction and external information [4]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Review - The stock index shrank and declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.68%. The turnover of the two markets decreased by 51.0905 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties shrank and declined [2]. Important Information - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose to 5% for the first time since July. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War was held in Beijing [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Reduce long positions or adopt a covered call strategy [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.96 | 19.6242 | 0.0876 | 28.6469 | -1.1866 | | IH | -1.29 | 8.6105 | 0.5491 | 10.2538 | -0.7211 | | IC | -1.30 | 16.6146 | -0.669 | 24.487 | -0.9914 | | IM | -1.22 | 33.8297 | 0.0551 | 39.925 | -0.2021 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -1.16 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -0.65 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.18 | | Turnover of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 23640.86 | | Turnover MoM (100 million yuan) | -5109.05 | [6]

Group 1 - The recent decline in US stock markets, with the Dow Jones dropping 249 points, is attributed to rising bond yields and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariffs [1][3][4] - The 30-year US Treasury yield approaching 5% and the 10-year yield reaching 4.29% are significant, as higher bond yields can divert funds from the stock market, particularly affecting high-valuation tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla [3][4] - Global long-term bond yields are also rising, with countries like the UK, France, and Germany experiencing their highest yields in decades, raising concerns about national debt levels and market reactions [3] Group 2 - The recent court ruling declaring many of Trump's global tariffs illegal adds uncertainty to the market, as potential changes in tariffs could impact costs and profits for import-export businesses [3][4] - The strong performance of US stocks in August, with the Dow rising over 3% and the S&P experiencing four consecutive months of gains, has led to profit-taking in September, contributing to market pressure [4] - The current market situation is described as a crossroads, with investors needing to monitor both bond yield stability and the developments regarding Trump's tariffs [4]