周一（11月3日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨2.71个基点，报4.1046%，北京时间17:05回落至 4.0794%刷新日低、逼近4.08%下方的平盘，随后重新扩大涨幅，00:17刷新日高至。两年期美债收益率 涨2.47个基点，报3.5984%；30年期美债收益率涨3.68个基点，报4.6879%。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨 0.046个基点，报+50.214个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨3.15个基点，至1.7903%；两年 期TIPS收益率涨0.31个基点，至0.9665%；30年期TIPS收益率涨4.42个基点，至2.4584%。 ...

美国财长斯科特·贝森特上周日（11月2日）表示，由于高利率，美国部分经济领域（尤其是房地产）可 能已陷入衰退，他再次呼吁美联储应加快降息步伐。 周一（11月3日）亚洲交易时段，美元指数延续前三个交易日涨势，今日美元指数最新报99.75，涨幅 0.04%，上周五美指一度创下99.84的近四个月高点，鲍威尔对12月是否降息的鹰派态度为美元走势提供 坚实支撑。 上周五，由于多名美联储官员公开表态反对美联储12月降息，美元指数持续走强，且录得7月以来最佳 月度表现，最终收涨0.18%，报99.71。基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.079%，对美联储政策利率敏 感的2年期美债收益率收报3.582%。 达拉斯联储主席洛根认为美联储上周没必要降息，并反对12月再度降息；堪萨斯城联储主席施密德称上 周投票反对降息是担心经济增长和投资会对通胀形成上行压力；亚特兰大联储博斯蒂克警告市场不要过 度超前解读点阵图，12月降息并非既定事项；克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克称必须维持一定限制性政策力度 以使通胀回归目标；对改革政策利率目标持开放态度。 将于明年1月重返白宫工作岗位的米兰是两位反对美联储上周降息25个基点决定的理事之一，他主张降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October but gave a hawkish hint, with uncertainty about December rate - cut and the Fed's access to official data due to government shutdown and the expected announcement of the next Fed chair by Trump [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4%, and caution is needed when it breaks below this level due to uncertainty in US tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change, and high - interest rates may suppress the employment market and macro - economy, especially if it impacts the real estate market [2] - The US government shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue, and November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the trend of the US Treasury market [2] - The producer price index has rebounded, with various commodity prices showing different trends in the week of November 1, 2025 [2] Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Scanning - **Sino - US Leaders' Meeting**: On October 30, Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation in economy, trade, energy and promote cultural exchanges [2] - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut and Hints**: The Fed cut rates by 25BP in October. Powell said December rate - cut is not certain, and there is strong internal disagreement. Uncertainty exists in the amount of official data the Fed can receive due to government shutdown, and the market may have concerns about Powell's conservatism at the end of his term [2] - **US Treasury Yield Movement**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4% following the Fed's hawkish rate - cut. Caution is needed when it breaks below 4% due to uncertainties in tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - **US Employment Market Situation**: The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change. The 9 - month non - farm employment data is not released, and the ADP private non - farm employment growth rate declined with a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September. The government shutdown impacts federal government employment, and it's hard to change the overall non - farm employment situation [2] - **US Government Shutdown Outlook**: The shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue. November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the US Treasury market trend [2] - **Price Index Changes**: In the week of November 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 1.46% week - on - week and decreased 27.10% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased 8.09% week - on - week and 3.83% year - on - year. The producer price index increased 0.40% week - on - week and decreased 4.27% year - on - year [2] High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scanning - **High - Frequency Data and Key Macro - Indicator Trends Comparison**: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data such as copper prices, steel production, and key macro - indicators like industrial added value, PPI, and export volume [18][20][29] - **Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe**: Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and economic growth, inflation, and financial conditions, as well as the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the US and the Eurozone [86][88][97] - **Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data**: Charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as steel production, producer price index, and real estate - related data [99][103][109] - **High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen**: Charts present the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [153][156]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and continue to do so approximately three more times next year, despite recent hawkish comments from Powell [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls have shown weak performance over the last four months, with potential marginal improvement expected after the government reopens, but strong growth is unlikely [1] - Inflation is likely to remain moderate [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The impact of Powell's hawkish remarks is expected to be temporary, with a return to a rate-cutting cycle anticipated [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to continue in a downward trend, and the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken [1] - Gold prices are expected to recover after a pullback, benefiting from the advancing rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for both emerging market equities and bonds [1] Group 3: Alternative Scenarios - In a low-probability scenario where the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in December and struggles to implement cuts by 2026, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may remain elevated, putting pressure on gold prices and U.S. equities, as well as increasing stress on emerging market assets [1]

每经AI快讯，周四（10月30日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.63个基点报3.608%，3年 期美债收益率涨1.41个基点报3.609%，5年期美债收益率涨1.04个基点报3.715%，10年期美债收益率涨 2.32个基点报4.097%，30年期美债收益率涨3.45个基点报4.655%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（10月29日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨10.62个基点报3.592%，3 年期美债收益率涨10.10个基点报3.595%，5年期美债收益率涨10.01个基点报3.704%，10年期美债收益 率涨9.82个基点报4.074%，30年期美债收益率涨7.87个基点报4.620%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Sell short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Postpone [9] Core View - The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the market has fully priced in this expected rate cut. Coupled with factors that reduce short-term risk aversion, precious metals are expected to continue to show a volatile trend [8]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, so the government shutdown will continue. ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report shows that the average number of private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 926.92 yuan/gram and closed at 901.38 yuan/gram, down 3.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 905.06 yuan/gram, up 0.41% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 11,268.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,049.00 yuan/kg, down 3.03% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,052,828 lots, and the open interest was 321,876 lots. The night session closed at 11,180 yuan/kg, up 1.19% from the afternoon session [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 28, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.974%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.492%, up 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On October 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 541 lots, and the short positions decreased by 242 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 643,413 lots, a change of 24.38% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,760,723 lots, a change of 35.58% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.92 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,210 tons, a decrease of 131 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 20.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -625.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.58, down 0.49% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.07, up 0.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,744 kg, a change of 21.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 765,416 kg, a change of 17.10% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 16,830 kg [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. employment market shows signs of resilience despite the government shutdown, indicating a potential "soft landing" for the economy. Although September's non-farm payrolls were weak, improvements are expected in the coming months. The unemployment rate's upward pressure may ease as layoffs decrease [1][7][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. high-frequency economic indicators are entering an upward cycle, with employment data expected to show resilience. This limits the potential for significant declines in bond yields. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely peaked in September and is expected to enter a declining phase over the next few months, which will restrict interest rate rebounds. The 10-year yield is projected to oscillate within a weak range, with support at 3.9% and 3.8%, and resistance at 4.1% and 4.2% [1][33][34]. Market Review - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown led to the absence of employment data, while the CPI data release was delayed. Mid-month, tensions escalated in U.S.-China trade relations, and two regional banks faced crises, heightening risk aversion. However, by the end of the month, a framework agreement was reached in U.S.-China talks, and the regional bank issues did not escalate into systemic risks, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2]. Employment Data Insights - Five private sector indicators reflect the state of non-farm employment: ADP employment, NFIB small business hiring plans, Revelio Labs employment forecasts, Challenger job additions, and Job Indeed new postings. While ADP and NFIB indicate weak job growth for September, other indicators suggest a mild improvement. The Challenger layoffs data shows a significant decrease in layoffs, which may alleviate upward pressure on the unemployment rate [7][8]. Agency MBS Monitoring - In October, agency MBS yields declined alongside U.S. Treasury yields, with Fannie Mae MBS yields decreasing more than Ginnie Mae MBS. The credit spread relative to Treasuries narrowed to the historical 50th percentile. The duration of Fannie Mae MBS is currently overvalued [39][40].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of U.S. Treasury yields on October 28, with short-term yields rising while long-term yields experienced slight declines [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.37 basis points to 3.486% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield rose by 1.39 basis points to 3.494% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield went up by 0.94 basis points to 3.604% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.01 basis points to 3.976% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield fell by 0.75 basis points to 4.542% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - US CPI in September was lower than market expectations, but the stagflation risk remains unresolved. The cooling of the US real - estate market has curbed inflation, but price increases in non - rent services and core commodities are still high. Retailer inventory is tight, and an aggressive trade policy may exacerbate inflation risks [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is oscillating around the 4% mark. The outcome of the US Supreme Court's tariff case and the resolution of the US government "shutdown" affect the US Treasury market. Caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield is below 4% [2] - The price index of edible agricultural products has rebounded. There are changes in prices of various commodities such as oil, metals, and building materials. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from October 1 - 21, 2025, decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report shows various charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and export volume, including copper prices, steel production, and commodity price indices [8][23][29] US and European Important High - frequency Indicators - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE, and financial conditions indexes, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [96][98][105] High - frequency Data Seasonal Trends - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including data on steel production, production material price indices, and commodity price indices [107][113][116] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [160][164][167]