点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"美联储利率会议与中美会谈"，"巴印冲突与欧佩克+加速增产"，"清迈倡议与文明之鹰2025"，"财新PMI与三巨头发布会"四个方 面解读了基本面的一些信息，并结合美联储，中美，瑞士，巴基斯坦，印度，欧佩克，金银油，10+3，中埃，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局 思路。 今天的基本面发生了很多事，包括巴印冲突，美国与胡塞武装达成停火协议，中美计划在5月9日-12日瑞士举行会谈，欧佩克+计划加速增产，以及三巨头 的重磅发布会，这些内容我已经在今夜的直播课上为大家作了跟踪与解读。 这里重点说一下， 美联储今夜明晨的利率决议。 | 预测利率 | 2025.05.8 | 2025.06.19 | 2025.07.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.8% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 1.1% | 25.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 3.2% | 35.6% | 54.8% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 96.8% | 63.3% | 19 ...

黄金日内震荡走弱，美联储利率决议能否迎来转折点？立即观看超V研究员Alex多品种实时分析>>> 相关链接 ...

3.避险需求升温:地缘冲突与全球经济复苏的不确定性,持续支撑黄金的避险买盘。2025年初至今,央行购 金规模同比增加12%,创历史新高。 在全球经济舞台上,美联储议息会议一直扮演着举足轻重的角色。每一次利率决议的公布,都如同投入平 静湖面的巨石,在全球金融市场激起千层浪。黄金作为非息资产,其价格对美联储利率决议尤为敏感。加 息通常提升持有黄金的机会成本,而降息则降低这一成本。 美联储利率决议对全球金融市场的影响 1.资金流动层面:美国利率的升降会引发国际资金的大规模流动。当美联储加息时,国际资金受高收益吸 引流入美国,新兴市场资金则面临流出压力,导致新兴市场股市、债市动荡,货币贬值。 2.利率路径影响:若美联储暗示降息,实际利率下行将直接提振黄金吸引力。历史数据显示,降息周期中金 价平均年涨幅达15%。 3.专业策略与教育:每天线上课程,由资深分析师解读全球市场行情动向与金价走势。 随着美联储未来可能在2025年下半年启动降息周期,黄金或迎来新一轮上行空间。高盛预测年内金价有 望触及3700美元,并在2026年中挑战4000美元关口。 领峰贵金属交易平台作为专业的贵金属交易平台,为投资者提供了优质的交易服务和 ...

我们再来看看板块的情况：军工板块涨幅居前。有机构在研报中表示，2025年一季度主动型基金前十大 军工股持有流入总市值绝对值的前十中，军工电子板块标的占80%。过去三年军工电子板块较其他军工 子板块超跌较多，在长尾效应下周期反弹锐度或将凸显，板块景气度修复时或成为先选。 房地产板块开盘冲高，一度大涨。消息面上，"央妈"在发布会上公布，降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25个百分点，5年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。再加上五一假期多 地楼市活跃度提升，在一定程度上反映了市场信心的修复情况，也表明在政策利好叠加效应下，住房需 求得到进一步的释放。 化工股震荡走强。有研报表示，2024年以来行业固定资产投资增速明显放缓，综合整治"内卷式"恶性竞 争写入2025年工作报告，供给端逐步迎来边际改善。 A股高开低走，今晚美联储利率决议来袭，明天会怎么走？今天市场的走势，还是没有脱离"魔咒"，但 凡高开幅度大的，低走就是大概率事件，又一次演绎了高开低走。盘面上看，军工股震荡走强，化工板 块再度活跃，地产板块开盘冲高后震荡回落。昨天领涨的科技股方向陷入分化，机器人方向局部活跃， AI概念股集体 ...

美联储利率决议前瞻：按兵不动，静待政策明朗化 美联储5月议息会议重磅来袭， "硬数据"与"软数据"分化加剧，鲍威尔或坚持"观望"立场。 凌晨两点，鲍威尔"硬刚"特朗普 金十数据5月7日讯，美联储本次不降息几成定局，但这或许是关税阴霾下最后一次预测结果笃定的会议，市场翘首以盼 后续利率走向，料吃定"闭门羹"的特朗普又会否卡点"上线对轰"鲍威尔？查看更多... ...

周二，美国参议院银行委员会推进了对米歇尔 鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）出任美联储监管副主席的提 名，使她离进入批准投票又近了一步。与今年早些时候辞去该职务的巴尔相比，预计鲍曼将支持更宽松 的银行监管。她经常呼吁进行"量身定制"的监管，并尖锐批评了一项要求许多银行大幅增加资本金以缓 冲损失的提案。 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： | 日期 | 净持仓量（盎司） | 净持仓量（吨） | 总价值（美元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-06 | 30156176.54 | 937.96 | 102234529328.01 | | 2025-05-05 | 30202269.49 | 939.39 | 98110801650.51 | （注：黄金ETF持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨黄金的情绪升温，利多黄金；黄金ETF持仓减少， 表明卖盘增加，市场看跌黄金的情绪升温，利空黄金。） 【要闻回顾】 摘要国际黄金周二（5月6日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3431.54美元/盎司，上涨97.35美元或 2.92%，日内最高上探3434.80美元/盎司，最低触及3323.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a low-buy strategy for precious metals [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market rose strongly on Tuesday, influenced by factors such as strong domestic buying demand after the May Day holiday, concerns about potential US tariffs on imported drugs, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the escalation of the India-Pakistan situation. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield also boosted precious metal valuations, while the slowdown of the US stock market rally reflected a decrease in risk appetite. The market focus has shifted to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. In the short term, precious metals may remain volatile at high levels but are expected to be in an upward-trending pattern. The medium to long term is also expected to be bullish [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Gold 2506 contract closed at $3441.8 per ounce, up 3.6%; US silver 2507 contract closed at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.96%. SHFE gold 2506 main contract closed at 797.2 yuan per gram, up 1.39%; SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8235 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% [2]. - SHFE gold main continuous contract was at 794.8 yuan per gram, up 1.86%; SGX gold TD was at 792.87 yuan per gram, up 1.72%; CME gold main contract was at $3441.8 per ounce, up 2.94%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was at 8235 yuan per kilogram, up 0.65%; SGX silver TD was at 8221 yuan per kilogram, up 0.71%; CME silver main contract was at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.33%. SHFE - TD gold was at 1.93 yuan per gram, up 141.25%; SHFE - TD silver was at 14 yuan per kilogram, up 5.56%. CME gold - silver ratio was at 102.94, up 0.6% [5]. Fund Holdings and Inventories - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.43 tons to 937.96 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 13958.7 tons. In terms of inventories, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 959.8 tons; as of the week ending April 25, SGX silver inventory decreased by 42.8 tons to 1640.1 tons [3]. - SHFE gold inventory was 15648 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1263.0356 tons, down 0.69%. SHFE gold position was 127407 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold position was 937.96 tons, down 0.15%. SHFE silver inventory was 959.785 tons, up 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15592.713 tons, up 0.13%. SGX silver inventory was 1640.07 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position was 232016 lots, unchanged; SLV silver position was 13958.73495 tons, unchanged [15][16]. This Week's Focus - New Fed journalist Nick Timiraos wrote that the Fed will be more inclined to "control inflation" in the face of the dilemma of economic recession and inflation pressure and may not cut interest rates without clear signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and an increase in the unemployment rate. Investors are turning their attention to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Although this interest rate decision is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged, investors are concerned about Powell's forward - looking guidance on future interest rate cuts at the press conference. This week's data is generally light. There will be a series of events including the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference early Thursday, the Bank of England's interest rate decision and related reports in the evening, and several speeches by Fed officials on Friday. Also, pay attention to the progress of global trade war negotiations [3]. Nanhua's View - In the medium to long term, it may be bullish. Gold's monthly chart remains strong, and the daily chart has turned strong. In the short term, London gold should focus on the resistance at $3430. If it breaks through, it can be further expected to reach $3500, with support at $3350 and strong support at $3200. London silver's trend is slightly weaker than that of gold, and it is short - term range - bound, with support at $32 and resistance at $33.7. If it breaks through, it can be expected to reach $34 and $34.5. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [4]. Other Market Indicators - The US dollar index was at 99.2342, down 0.56%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.2097, up 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 41218.83 points, down 0.24%. WTI crude oil spot was at $59.09 per barrel, up 3.43%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9356 per ton, up 1.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.36%, up 0.69%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 2.04%, down 1.92%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 6% [21].

黄金周二（5月6日）早盘直接强势大涨，在触及3387附近后受阻调整，午后在3350附近企稳开始震荡上涨，美盘延续上涨走势，一直持续到收盘，日线收出 一根大阳线。 一、基本面 特朗普宣布对外国制作电影征收100%关税，引发市场对贸易局势的担忧，同时OPEC+增产消息导致能源和油气板块跌超1.7%，美股各板块ETF普遍收跌， 这些因素使得避险情绪重回市场，资金流向黄金寻求避险，推动金价上涨。此外，中美贸易谈判、美日贸易谈判陷入僵局，中东地区地缘问题反复，也进一 步加剧了市场的不确定性和避险情绪，对黄金价格形成支撑。 从日线级别来看，黄金价格此前在3500整数关口遭遇强劲阻力，随即开启调整走势。值得关注的是，本周连续两个交易日，金价均以大阳线报收，这一强势 表现直接收复了前期大部分跌幅，尽显多头力量的强劲。与此同时，均线系统也释放出积极信号，整体向上拐头，5日均线与10日均线形成粘合后交金叉。 在当前行情下，今日需着重留意黄金上涨动能能否持续。下方关键支撑区域位于3330-3320区间，该位置不仅是5日均线与10日均线当前所处位置，更是昨日 盘中低点所在，其支撑有效性将对后续行情发展起到关键作用。 从四小时级别来看 ...

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 9 AM today to introduce a "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [1] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM the following day [1]

据悉，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）是目前A股市场仅有的两只百亿元红利主题ETF 品种，最新规模分别达218.44亿元、158.36亿元。受益于标的指数成分股2025年来现金分红水平的持续 提升，截至4月30日，红利指数、红利低波指数的最新股息率（近12个月）分别为6.90%、6.59%，高于 近十年93.79%、95.93%的时间。（数据来源：交易所、Wind、上市公司公告） 当地时间2025年5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议。在"关税风波"尚未渐息之际，美联储政策的不确 定性或同样成为近期扰动市场的主要因素之一，随着市场情绪反复拉锯，资金对具备较强防御属性红利 类资产颇为青睐。 其中，目前A股市场两只百亿级红利主题类ETF头部品种——红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF （512890）交投高度活跃，4月30日全日成交额分别为3.57亿元、8.08亿元，较前一交易日大幅增长 46%、188%。（数据来源：交易所） 年初以来（截至2025年4月30日），红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）累计吸引6.4亿元、 22.4亿元资金净流入，红利低波ETF（ ...