Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time this year it has held rates steady [1] - The voting results for the rate decision were 9 in favor, 2 against, with one member absent; this is the first time since 1993 that two members have opposed the rate decision [1] - Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding the September rate, and they will consider economic information before the next meeting [1] Inflation - Core inflation is influenced by tariffs, with estimates suggesting that 30% to 40% of core inflation may stem from these tariffs [2] - The inflation rate is slightly above the target, but the economy remains solid despite uncertainties [3] - The committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [4] Economic Outlook - Recent indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic activity during the first half of the year, influenced by fluctuations in net exports [5] - Economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% last year [6] - The Federal Reserve reiterated that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, having removed previous language indicating that uncertainty had diminished [7] Financial Markets - The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [8] Tariffs - Some prices of goods have begun to reflect the impact of higher tariffs more clearly, but the overall effect of tariffs on economic activity and inflation is still under observation [9] - Core PCE in June may have increased by 2.7% year-over-year, with tariffs pushing up prices of certain goods, while long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the 2% target [10]

*三大股指分化，纳指涨0.15%； 【美联储按兵不动！美股盘中跳水，#微软跻身4万亿美元市值俱乐部#】 *美联储主席鲍威尔称，尚未决定9月会议结果； *美国二季度GDP增长3%。 周三美股涨跌互现， 美国二季度GDP好于预期，投资者关注美联储决议和大型科技股财报。截至收 盘，道指下跌0.38%，至44461.28点，纳指上涨0.15%，收于21129.67点，而标普500指数下跌0.12%，收 于6362.90点。 美联储公布利率决议，维持联邦基金利率不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，9月是否降息 尚未作出决定，美联储需要确保关税因素不会从一次性的价格上涨变成真正的持续通胀问题。 微软二季度营收764.4亿美元，同比增长18%，市场预期738.9亿美元。每股收益（EPS）3.65美元，同比 增长24%，市场预期3.37美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, consistent with market predictions [5]. - This decision reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [6]. Voting Discrepancies - There was a notable dissent among the board members, with Governors Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [5][6]. Inflation Outlook - The Fed did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5% [6]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding future economic conditions remains high [6]. - The Fed's current policy stance is viewed as favorable, but decisions regarding future meetings will depend on incoming data [6][10]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the Fed may resume a loosening cycle in the fall if inflation pressures from tariffs are confirmed to be temporary [10]. - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's stance, with expectations of potential rate cuts depending on economic data trends [10][13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Officials Bowman and Waller expressed differing opinions, advocating for a rate cut, suggesting potential shifts in future monetary policy [1] - The initial statements from the Federal Reserve lacked significant wording embellishments, reflecting a straightforward communication style [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has been announced, leading to temporary stability in spot gold and silver prices, as well as the DXY dollar index [1] Group 1 - The announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision resulted in minimal short-term fluctuations in the spot gold and silver markets [1] - The DXY dollar index also experienced limited volatility following the interest rate decision [1]

金十数据7月31日讯，在美联储利率决议公布前夕，美股三大股指小幅走高，道指涨0.07%。标普500指 数涨0.25%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.46%。华尔街普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变，但投资者更关注决议 投票中可能出现的内部分歧。"市场最关注的是本次维持利率不变的决议会获得多少反对票，"Horizon Investments投资组合管理主管希尔表示。投资者还将仔细研读美联储政策声明，并密切关注美联储主席 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态。西北互惠财富管理公司首席投资官舒特认为，市场走向的关键在于鲍威 尔是否会释放9月会议可能降息的信号。CNN恐惧与贪婪指数显示，当前"贪婪"情绪主导市场。 美联储利率决议前夕，美股小幅走高 ...

Market Overview - US stock markets opened slightly higher with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices showing minor gains [4] - The US dollar index experienced a sudden increase, while spot gold prices fell below $3300 [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with a 98% probability of maintaining the benchmark rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [6] - The US Commerce Department's preliminary estimate indicates a 3.0% annual growth in real GDP for Q2 2025 [6] Company Performance - New Oriental reported a 9.4% year-over-year increase in Q4 net revenue to $1.243 billion, but net profit dropped 73.7% to $7.1 million due to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment [10] - Excluding the Oriental Selection business, core education revenue reached $1.09 billion, reflecting an 18.7% growth [10] - For the fiscal year 2025, New Oriental anticipates a 13.6% revenue increase to $4.9 billion and a 20.1% rise in net profit to $372 million [10] - The company projects fiscal year 2026 revenue between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, representing a 5% to 10% growth [10] - In the automotive sector, shares of Li Auto and NIO fell over 3% [10] Stock Movements - Wingstop shares surged nearly 28%, LendingClub rose nearly 17%, and other notable gains included Tarrytown and Weifu Group, which increased over 15% and 13% respectively [5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.86% [8]

北京时间周三（7月30日）ADP与PCE数据公布后，美元指数短线拉升，现货黄金小幅走低，投资者迅速调整对美联储货币政策的预期。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健 的交易系统在这里，对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金 管理和风险控制，操作风格稳健果断，以随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描 述，只是观点的表达，不作为投资决策依据，投资有风险，交易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金管理和风险控制，无风控不交易，不要 让交易失控！ 本周开盘以来，周一是延续了上周的一个跌势，然后在3301附近止涨反弹，周二与周三的亚欧盘是一个震荡上行的走势，小时级盘面可 以明显看到反弹力度不足，不说周一开盘走高的高点，就连最后一波的跌势起点3338都无法触及，足以说明在消息面与数据公布密集时 间市场情绪偏于谨慎，今晚的几个数据公布，金价跌势算是收复了这几天震荡反弹的高度，但是延续度还需要继续观察。老秦个人认为 本周还是需要关注美联储的利率决议， ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the ADP and GDP data in the U.S. is anticipated to influence market movements, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and its potential impact on gold prices [1] Group 1 - The ADP data and GDP figures are expected to be significant indicators for traders [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for release in the early hours, which may lead to volatility in gold prices [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by trader Rinly to discuss strategies ahead of the data release [1]

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发表文章称，本周的美联储会议可能会有两位理事持不同意见，这是30多 年来（或者说连续259次政策会议）从未出现过的情况。 鲍威尔和他的部分同事已经表示倾向于在本周的会议上保持观望态度，而潜在的反对者——美联储理事 沃勒和鲍曼——恰好是特朗普总统任命的两名人选。两人都表示支持降息，特朗普也公开要求降息。 值得注意的是，二人均为特朗普任命的官员，而特朗普近期频繁施压美联储，不仅突访总部、公开批评 鲍威尔领导力，更在鲍威尔明年5月任期结束前引发继任者角逐。 历史数据显示，美联储理事集体异议极为罕见，上一次出现还要追溯至1993年，此后的259次会议均未 再现这一场景。 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布利率决议，02:30鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。外界普遍预计，在 7月29日至30日的会议结束时，政策制定者将连续第五次维持利率不变。然而，几乎铁定将再度"按兵不 动"的美联储，却可能遭遇三十多年来最为嘹亮的"反对声"。 除沃勒和鲍曼外，其他成员均未表露出在本次会议上降息的倾向。6月会议纪要显示，部分官员甚至主 张今年不降息。本次会议上，理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adrian ...