1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX/PTA, the upside space for the unilateral price is limited. Be vigilant about the negative impact of polyester production cuts and focus on positions where processing fees are compressed. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to reduce inventory, which is beneficial for near - month positive spread positions. There is a slight recovery in textile and clothing orders from the US during the 90 - day low - tariff window, driving a positive feedback process in the entire industry chain. However, with the rapid rise of raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG, polyester profits are quickly compressed. Also, as the PX - N spread rises to $280 per ton and the PX - MX spread rises above $120 per ton, the enthusiasm for PX production increases, and PTA supply also grows with the restart of multiple plants, weakening the upward momentum of the unilateral price and challenging the processing fees [5] - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all - 1 [5] - Investment strategies: Short PX and long SC; long PX and short PTA; long PTA and short MEG [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Closing prices**: On May 21, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6766, 4788, 4414, 6544, and 3571 respectively. The daily changes were 1.5%, 1.2%, 0.0%, 0.6%, and 0.4% [2] - **Monthly spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the monthly spreads of PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09 were 168, 118, 44, 30, and - 444 respectively, with daily changes of 26, 6, - 3, - 2, and 102 [2] - **Inter - variety spreads**: On May 21, 2025, the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 were 390, 374, - 1698, 881, and 1332 respectively, with daily changes of - 8, 55, 8, - 14, and 45 [2] - **Basis**: On May 21, 2025, the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PX - naphtha spread were 160, 110, 85, 6, and 259 respectively, with daily changes of - 31, - 40, - 14, - 48, and 1 [2] - **Warehouse receipts**: On May 21, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts for PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC were 67714, 9775, 2692, 200, and 4029000 respectively. The daily changes of PTA and ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were - 102 and - 2289 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: A 400 - million - ton PX plant in East China has basically resumed normal operation after reducing its load due to front - end equipment maintenance around May 13 [4] - **PTA**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow; a 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today and is expected to last for about 2 weeks; a 1 - million - ton PTA plant in Southwest China has postponed its restart to around this weekend; a 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Northwest China has produced products and will maintain a load of 60% - 70% [4] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant ended maintenance yesterday and is currently operating at a 50% load; a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and its ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a plan to start full - epoxy production in July [4] - **Polyester**: The overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, with an estimated average sales volume of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved compared to yesterday, with an average sales volume of 69% by 3 pm [5]

PTA：聚酯减产负反馈下，PTA承压回落 MEG：多重利好兑现，MEG短期有回调预期 正信期货聚酯周报 20250519 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘局势缓和，且OPEC+加速增产，需求欠佳的压力仍存，预计油价短期偏弱运行。PX方面，PX加工 费偏低，浙石化更换催化剂，国内PX负荷再次下滑，PX供需尚可，受成本拖累明显，预计PX短期叫原油表现好。 供应端：PTA：四川能投和新疆中泰有重启计划，预计下周PTA产量提升。乙二醇：国产检修超预期增加，开 工率大幅下滑至61%附近，进口维持低位，国产产量与进口量双降预期。 需求端：下周聚酯负荷存下滑预期，装置检修与重启并存，但新装置负荷提升缓慢，且减产计划较多，如恒 力、金纶、中鲈等，预计下周聚酯产量小幅下滑。原料市场在利好消息的发酵影响下连续上涨，部分厂商担心 未来成本走高，故进行集中原料备货，下游原料补货气氛升温，部分厂商备货周期在6月中旬附近。后市来看 织造行业生产积极性较前期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade talks have led to the cancellation of 91% of tariffs, with a temporary suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, positively impacting the global trade environment and market expectations for oil prices [1] Industry Summary - The polyester industry chain shows strong performance across various products, with significant price increases observed: - PX509 contract closed at 6744 CNY/ton, up 272 CNY/ton (4.2%) - TA509 contract at 4774 CNY/ton, up 192 CNY/ton (4.19%) - EG2509 contract at 4460 CNY/ton, up 242 CNY/ton (5.74%) - PF507 contract at 6550 CNY/ton, up 286 CNY/ton (4.57%) - PR507 contract at 6082 CNY/ton, up 260 CNY/ton (4.47%) [1][1][1] - Global trade expectations are improving, with anticipation that Iran will release more oil, leading to fluctuations in oil prices [1] - The operating rates for PX have decreased due to some PX facilities reducing output, while PTA operating rates have slightly increased, resulting in a small rise in weekly production [1] - The polyester production rates have seen a slight increase due to higher operating rates in bottle flakes and short fibers, while short fiber inventory remains stable and long fiber inventory has generally decreased, indicating improved downstream demand [1][1] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals in the polyester industry chain are favorable, with a need to monitor the impact of the restart of PX and PTA maintenance facilities on the market [1] - Despite fluctuations in oil prices, the polyester industry chain's product prices continue to outperform crude oil, with production profits for PX and PTA showing significant improvement [1][1]

化工日报 | 2025-05-15 市场情绪延续乐观，PXN大幅上涨 市场要闻与数据 5月14日，聚酯产业链商品全线上涨，MEG/PX/PTA/PF/PR主力合约分别上涨3.68%、2.96%、2.87%、3.02%、3.23%。 上涨的主要原因是：一方面近期宏观情绪较好，上个周末中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行的会谈结果超预期，降低关 税对聚酯需求端利好明显，订单和长丝产销好转，同时原油价格反弹持稳，带动下游能化品整体反弹。 另外基本面方面，在聚酯高负荷的支撑下，PTA、MEG等聚酯原料4、5月连续去库，PTA更是连续两个月去库50 万吨附近，PX现货采购也偏紧；下游方面，PF和PR前几日在原料快速上涨中加工费压缩严重，周三PR主流供应商 缩减合约，因此涨幅高于原料。 市场分析 成本端，中美会谈结果超预期，在此宏观利好下，商品氛围整体明显回暖，原油价格大幅上涨，带动下游能化品 整体反弹。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年，后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外间歇性调油需求 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 短纤：预期好转震荡偏强，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：预期好转震荡偏强，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2505 | 6362 | 6240 | 122 | PF05-06 | -92 | -58 | -34 | | PF | 短纤2506 | 6454 | 6298 | 156 | PF06-07 | 58 | 46 | 12 | | | 短纤2507 | 6396 | 6252 | 1 44 | PF某差 | -9 | 87 | -96 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 269427 | 257909 | 11518 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 445 | 6. 385 | 60 ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-08 成本端，五一假期期间，欧佩克+成员国同意将6月份的石油供应增加41.1万桶/日，这是继5月出人意料地大幅增产 后，该联盟连续第二个月加快供应恢复步伐，旨在惩罚那些违反配额、超额生产的成员国，原油供应压力持续。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年，后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~4月韩国出口到美 国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，亚洲MX和甲苯与石脑油价差表现低迷，短流程装置仍处于亏损状态， 大部分 PX 工厂停止外采 MX 生产 PX，成本端支撑有限。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN193美元/吨(环比变动+2.50美元/吨）。近期低利润下日韩PX装置计划外检修/降负有所 增加，PXN低位反弹，但5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，同时PTA5月检修依然较多，预计 PX平衡表将小幅累库。整体来看，当前PXN估值不高，下方仍有支撑，但在汽油弱 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/5/7 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/6 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 471. 1 | 458.9 | -12. 20 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,假期期间原油下跌,对PTA成本支 | | | | | | | 撑减弱,PTA行情补跌。目前PTA持续去库存,现货基 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1010. 5 | 1027. 1 | 16. 66 | 差较强。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2952 | 1. 3080 | 0. 0128 | | | | CFR中国PX | 748 | 748 | 0 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 190 | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 12.45 [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of RMB 19.42 billion, a decrease of 8% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 610 million, an increase of 5% quarter-on-quarter and 213% year-on-year [1]. - The polyester chain is expected to recover due to a slowdown in industry capacity growth and a potential improvement in domestic demand [1][3]. - The report highlights that the main raw material prices have decreased, which has helped improve the company's gross margin [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company achieved a gross margin of 7.7%, up 1% year-on-year and 4.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company’s main products, POY, FDY, and DTY, had sales volumes of 1.81 million tons, 450,000 tons, and 240,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +8%, and +4% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to improve as domestic demand recovers and textile exports increase, alongside a more favorable supply structure due to reduced capacity growth [3]. - New projects are progressing as planned, with significant investments in expanding the polyester and fine chemical industry chain [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, estimating net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at RMB 2 billion, RMB 2.4 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18 [4][10]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, based on its high proportion of polyester business [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 12.45 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.2 billion, representing a 51% increase year-on-year [1][5]. - The polyester industry is expected to recover due to domestic demand recovery and improved textile and apparel exports, alongside a slowdown in production capacity growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.2 billion (RMB 930 million after deducting non-recurring items), marking a 51% increase year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 25.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 200 million, reflecting a significant increase of 283% year-on-year [1][2]. Sales and Margins - The sales volume for POY, FDY, and DTY in 2024 was 9.68 million tons, 2.14 million tons, and 1.12 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +23%, +46%, and +13% [2]. - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 2%, 3%, and remained flat, respectively, leading to a slight decline in overall gross margin to 4.6% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to see a recovery driven by domestic demand and improved export conditions, with a favorable supply-demand balance expected as production capacity growth slows [3][4]. - The average market prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. Capacity and Projects - The company currently has a polyester polymerization capacity of 13 million tons per year and a polyester filament capacity of 13.5 million tons per year, holding an 18% market share in the domestic polyester filament market [4]. - Ongoing projects are progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved in the Fujian and Anhui projects, expected to be completed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, respectively [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 1.99 billion, RMB 2.38 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to a slow recovery in the polyester industry [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18, respectively, with a target price based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [5].