Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil supply-demand outlook is poor, and the supply glut expectation weighs on oil prices. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the risk premium has been fully reversed. The PX price has fallen back to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PTA will see new capacity come on stream in the third quarter, creating a timing mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on the presence of more unexpected supporting factors. The PTA market is bearish due to the increase in PTA capacity utilization rate and the reduction in production by downstream polyester factories. The PTA inventory is in a downward trend in absolute terms but at a near-five-year high in relative terms, and the situation of near-term strength and long-term weakness is hard to change. The polyester industry chain is less affected by macro factors and returns to fundamental-driven, with weakening supply-demand expectations leading to a full decline in prices. If the polyester production cut deepens, PTA will be relatively weaker. The profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has tilted back towards the raw material segment due to the strong cost-side drive. PTA's own fundamentals have weakened month-on-month but without inventory accumulation, and it is expected to follow the cost side in a weak and volatile manner in the short term. The polyester bottle chip market is in a weak and volatile state, with supply-side quotes showing mixed trends. The supply-side开工率 is relatively low, and market supplies may tighten. Downstream terminals maintain rigid demand, and market sentiment is cautious. The polyester industry chain's current demand is not optimistic, and it generally follows cost fluctuations. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 7, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 2.15% and 1.87% respectively compared to the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha and xylene decreased slightly, while the spot price of p-xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port increased by 0.28% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract remained unchanged, while the settlement price decreased by 0.72%. The closing and settlement prices of the near-month contract showed small changes. The domestic PTA spot price and related price indices decreased, with the CCFEI PTA outer - disk price index down 1.40% compared to July 4. The near - far month spread and basis decreased [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract increased by 0.18%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.77%. The closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract decreased by 0.78%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged, and the CFR China Taiwan price increased by 0.24%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread increased, while the basis decreased [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract increased slightly by 0.03%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.44%. The closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract remained unchanged. The market prices of polyester bottle chips in the East and South China markets decreased, and the bases decreased [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester filaments and polyester chips decreased on July 7, 2025, except for the polyester short - fiber price index which remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%. The PTA factory load rate increased by 3.75 percentage points to 80.59%, while the polyester factory load rate decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 87.30%. The bottle chip factory load rate decreased by 3.22 percentage points to 71.93%, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 61.22% [1] Production and Sales - On July 7, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios of polyester filaments and polyester short - fibers increased by 9.00 and 1.00 percentage points respectively, while the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips decreased by 20.00 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA plant reduced its load by about 5% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation state, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan/ton (-0.59%) and an intraday trading volume of 863,500 lots. PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,684 yuan/ton (-0.62%) and an intraday trading volume of 161,300 lots. PR follows the cost movement, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,872 yuan/ton (-0.37%) and an intraday trading volume of 38,300 lots. The international oil prices ended higher. The polyester industry chain's current demand is not optimistic, and PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to move in a volatile manner [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX prices may continue to face pressure in the short term due to weak international oil prices leading to insufficient cost support, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [2] - The downside space of PTA is limited. It may show a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game between cost and demand, with upstream PX weakening suppressing costs and downstream demand showing marginal improvement [2] - The polyester industry chain may present a weak reality pattern in the next two weeks. Cost - side downward pressure may be transmitted to the PTA link, but attention should be paid to the demand - side improvement's impact on inventory digestion and the potential start time of restocking [3] - Overall, PX may continue to be under pressure, while PTA may have limited decline or be in a range - bound consolidation due to demand growth [36] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 4, the PX main contract closed at 6,672.0 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,710.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 170.0 yuan/ton [2] - On July 4, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.85 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 67.18 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 696.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 645.33 million meters [2] Polyester - On July 4, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,514.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,710.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 196.0 yuan/ton [3] - The PX futures price showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On July 4, it decreased by 0.98% to 6,672 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the PTA futures decreased by 0.77% to 4,710 yuan/ton during the same period, indicating a loosening of cost support [3] - The MA15 of the Light Textile City's trading volume continued to rise, reaching 645 million meters on July 4, hitting a new high in the observation period, showing signs of recovery in terminal textile demand [3] - All types of polyester fibers showed continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly inventory increase of DTY was 13% (28.6 days), FDY increased by 18.5% (22.4 days), and POY increased by 26% (21.7 days), all significantly higher than the five - year average level [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,672 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; the trading volume was 241,111 lots, up 8.15%; the open interest was 123,806 lots, up 11.49% [4] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the trading volume was 1,056,898 lots, down 0.66%; the open interest was 1,114,401 lots, down 1.38% [4] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,514 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the trading volume was 107,280 lots, up 8.95%; the open interest was 82,960 lots, down 5.71% [4] - Other prices: Brent crude oil main contract was 68.51 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49%; WTI was 66.5 US dollars/barrel, down 1.01%; CFR Japan naphtha was 577.38 US dollars/ton, unchanged; ethylene glycol was 4,370 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; polyester chips were 5,875 yuan/ton, down 0.51%; polyester bottle chips were 5,980 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; polyester POY was 6,920 yuan/ton, down 3.22%; polyester DTY was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 2.61%; polyester FDY was 7,180 yuan/ton, down 3.62% [4] - Processing spreads: Naphtha was 40.64 US dollars/ton, unchanged; PX was 271.29 US dollars/ton, unchanged; PTA was 261.72 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; polyester chips were - 108 yuan/ton, down 38.46%; polyester bottle chips were - 453 yuan/ton, down 4.62%; polyester short - fiber was 107 yuan/ton, down 27.21%; polyester POY was 37 yuan/ton, down 86.14%; polyester DTY was - 33 yuan/ton, down 117.65%; polyester FDY was - 203 yuan/ton, down 402.99% [5] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total volume was 696 million meters, up 30.58%; long - fiber fabric volume was 507 million meters, up 24.88%; short - fiber fabric volume was 191 million meters, up 52.80% [5] - Industrial chain load rates: PTA factories were at 75.86%, unchanged; polyester factories were at 89.42%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were at 63.43%, unchanged [5] - Inventory days: Polyester short - fiber was 7.99 days, up 2.83%; polyester POY was 21.7 days, up 26.16%; polyester FDY was 22.4 days, up 18.52%; polyester DTY was 28.6 days, up 13.04% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On July 4, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the US economy may experience high inflation for a longer time [6] - On July 3, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor thought there would be five interest rate cuts in 2025 [6] - Starting from August 1, purchases of gold in cash exceeding 100,000 yuan will need to be reported [6] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 4, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 696.0 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 30.58%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 507.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 191.0 million meters [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts including PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber production and sales situation, polyester filament production and sales situation, China Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [8][10][12]

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 8875.00 | 8875.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 7275.00 | 7275.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | 游 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 6710.00 | 6760.00 | -0.74% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 5885.00 | 5905.00 | -0.34% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 5980.00 | 6000.00 | -0.33% | | 东营联合25 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/4 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | | 2025/7/2 | 2025/7/3 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | 8.10 | INE原油(元/桶) SC | 498. 2 | 506. 3 | | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情偏弱震荡,或担忧 | | 1066. 7 | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1173.5 | | -106. 86 | 下游减产,PTA现货市场气氛不佳,市场递盘基差偏 低,现货基差继续走弱。 | | -0. 0342 | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3241 | 1. 2899 | | | | CFR中国PX | | 854 | 849 | -5 | | | 283 | PX PX-石脑油价差 | | 277 | -7 | | | PT ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 PX仍偏强，PTA基差快速下行 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 147 元/吨(环比变动-28元/吨），PTA现货加工费305元/吨（环比变动-18元/吨），主 力合约盘面加工费357元/吨（环比变动-29元/吨），当前PTA自身基本面中性，关注成本和需求支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.4%（环比-0.6%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺, 短期长丝负荷预计还能维持,继续关注聚酯库存变化；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但 实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方面，华润6.22检修20%已执行，万凯逸盛计划7月初开始检修，还涉及产能170万吨，7 月聚酯负荷预计下降至89%~90%，关注实际兑现情况。 PF方面，现货生产利润179元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。短纤现货偏紧、库存不高，PF自身基本面尚可，但下游对原料 高价位接受能力有限，大多刚需采购为主，，但需求走弱预期，关注成本端支撑。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费327元/吨(环比变动-6元/吨)，随着海运费局部略松动，部分海外客户适量补货，聚酯瓶 片工厂库存小幅下降；负荷方面，华润常州和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. The fundamentals of PTA are weakening, but PX fundamentals remain tight, and the floating price of the spot is strongly maintained. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the expiration of the tariff extension deadline in July, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - In the short term, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver. The upside potential of gasoline cracking spreads is limited, and the demand for blending oil this year is not worth much expectation. PX short - flow plants have restarted external procurement of MX due to profit recovery [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and it is expected to decline to 89% - 90% in July. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3] - The fundamentals of PF are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited, and the demand is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The processing fee of PR is expected to recover with the implementation of production cuts, but the current profit is still low [4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral ratings of PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. There are no cross - variety strategies. For cross - period strategies, after the sentiment weakens, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long in the positive spread of PX/PTA monthly spreads at low prices [5] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The charts show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The charts present PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The charts display the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][35] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The charts present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The charts show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The charts show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][73][76] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The charts show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next next month - base month) [95][97][104]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/2 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/6/30 | 2025/7/1 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 496. 7 | 499. 4 | 2. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,月初下游聚酯工厂消耗长约PTA为 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1188. 4 | 1170. 8 | -17. 62 | 主,对PTA现货采购意向偏低,PTA现货基差走弱。部 | | | | | | | 分聚酯瓶片工厂执行减产,关注后续聚酯减产情况, | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3292 | 1. 3226 | -0. 0066 | 利空PTA市场。 | | | CFR中国PX | 874 | 861 | -13 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan under the previous high raw material prices can be fulfilled after the raw material prices decline. The PX fundamentals remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong. Macro factors such as the OPEC+ meeting in July and the expiration of the tariff extension period need to be monitored, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - After the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts in the short term. Affected by the low inventory in Cushing, the delivery location, the structure remains strong, and the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation has not changed. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than that of the supply side, and the market is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the United States has retraced again recently. With the background of new energy substitution, the upside potential of the gasoline cracking spread is limited. The domestic and foreign intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. Since March, the export of aromatic blending materials (toluene + MX + PX) from South Korea to the United States has decreased significantly. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of short - flow PX plants with the recovery of profits [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and both domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season. Terminal orders and start - up show a downward trend, but polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. The short - fiber inventory is not high, and although there are also production reduction news, the actual implementation is in doubt. For bottle chips, the 20% maintenance of China Resources on June 22 has been implemented, and Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance in early July, involving a production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The polyester load in July is expected to drop to 89% - 90%, and attention should be paid to the actual fulfillment [3] - The short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, and the PF's own fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, mostly for rigid demand procurement, and there is an expectation of weakening demand, so attention should be paid to cost - side support [3] - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 263 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton month - on - month). With the slight loosening of sea freight in some areas, some overseas customers have replenished goods in moderation, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased slightly. In terms of load, the polyester bottle chip plants of China Resources in Changzhou and Jiangyin have reduced production by 20% since June 22, and Yisheng and Wankai also plan to conduct maintenance in early July, with a total production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The bottle chip load is expected to decline further. In the short term, the current bottle chip profit is still low, and the processing fee is expected to recover with the gradual fulfillment of production reduction [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [74][82][84] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [91][95][98]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/27 | | 陈胜 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | | 2025/6/25 | 2025/6/26 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | 502. 9 | INE原油(元/桶) SC PTA-SC(元/陣) | 508. 6 1094.0 | 1115. 4 | -5. 70 21. 42 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情下跌,地缘局势暂未有重大消息,担忧 下游聚酯工厂减产,PTA行情窄幅下跌。早盘PTA主力 | | 0. 0092 | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2960 | 1. 3052 | | 供应商报盘走弱,现货基差微幅走弱。 | | CFR中国PX | PX | 849 | 853 | 4 | | | PX-石脑油价差 | | 263 | 274 | 11 | | | 4770 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan can be implemented after the raw material prices decline. The fundamentals of PX remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong [1] - If there are no new variables during the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the oil market will shift from geopolitical to fundamental drivers. The oil market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with limited short - term pressure. However, in the fourth quarter, it is expected to be in a state of oversupply [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined again, and the upside potential is limited. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [2] - Overseas PX operation rates have declined significantly due to geopolitical conflicts and delayed restarts of some plants. Some domestic PX plants are scheduled for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of supply [2] - With the cancellation of a large number of warehouse receipts and the delivery of major suppliers, the tight supply situation in the PTA spot market has eased, and the fundamental contradictions of PTA are not significant [5] - The polyester operation rate is 92.0% (up 1.1% month - on - month). The domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, but the polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. However, the inventory pressure may increase when the prices fluctuate at high levels [3] - The short - fiber inventory is not high, but the implementation of the production reduction plan is in doubt. The polyester bottle chip processing fee is still under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction plan can be implemented and the change of container freight rates [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - Figures show the operation rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operation rates in China and Asia [30][33][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operation rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - It includes 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spreads, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [75][85][91] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [94][96][101]