Group 1: Report Core View - The Fed's interest rate cut sends a positive signal, and oil prices drive the rebound of PX and PTA [1] - The future price of PX may decline or remain weak due to falling oil prices and negative basis, while the price of PTA may be relatively strong due to improved demand and positive basis [56] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On December 10, the PX main contract closed at 6,746.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -81.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,616.0 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 14.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on December 10, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.12 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 58.39 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on December 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 7.98 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 7.4767 million meters [2] - The PX plant operating rate remains high. The 700,000 - ton NghiSon - Idemitsu plant in Vietnam reduced its load due to problems with the front - end plant in mid - November and is expected to resume operation as early as this weekend. The 2.2 million - ton Ningbo Yisheng PTA plant has been under maintenance for 5 weeks since November 20 [3] - Terminal Light Textile City trading volume increased slightly, polyester consumption sentiment strengthened, polyester operation maintained resilience, and terminal loom operation declined [4] Polyester - On December 10, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,114.0 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,275.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 161.0 yuan/ton [5] - The 15 - day moving average trading volume of the Light Textile City increased continuously (from 7.0213 million meters on December 1 to 7.4767 million meters on December 10), indicating a steady recovery in terminal demand. In terms of inventory, based on the data on December 4, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber are relatively low (6.38 days), while those of polyester filament such as POY (16.3 days), FDY (21.2 days), and DTY (24.3 days) are at a high level, which may indicate a risk of filament inventory overstock compared with the average of the past 5 years [5] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,746 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 391,674 lots, up 49.82%; the main contract open interest was 194,337 lots, up 3.32%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 832.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 807 US dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The PX basis was - 81 yuan/ton, up 29.57% [6] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,616 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 481,145 lots, up 4.19%; the main contract open interest was 608,290 lots, down 7.73%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 607 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The PTA basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 200.00%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, down 6.25%; the 5 - 9 spread was 46 yuan/ton, down 11.54%; the 9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 83.33%. The PTA import profit was - 639.94 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [6] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,114 yuan/ton, down 1.10% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 246,957 lots, up 39.30%; the main contract open interest was 209,819 lots, up 4.59%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,275 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The PF basis was 161 yuan/ton, up 49.07%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, down 50.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, down 13.64%; the 9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, up 26.47% [6] - Industrial chain prices: The Brent crude oil main contract was 62.52 US dollars/barrel, up 0.64%; the US crude oil main contract was 58.96 US dollars/barrel, up 0.98%; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 563 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of ethylene glycol was 3,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester chips was 5,580 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester bottle chips was 5,670 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester POY was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester DTY was 7,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester FDY was 6,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Processing spreads: The naphtha processing spread was 88.69 US dollars/ton, down 1.25%; the PX processing spread was 269.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the PTA processing spread was 150.16 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; the polyester chip processing spread was 48.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester bottle chip processing spread was - 311.4 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber processing spread was 148.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester POY processing spread was 68.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester DTY processing spread was 68.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester FDY processing spread was - 151.4 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume was 7980,000 meters, up 6.83%; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.55 million meters, up 2.02%; the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.44 million meters, up 34.58% [7] - Industrial chain load rates: The PTA factory load rate was 75.86%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 89.42%, unchanged; the loom load rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 63.43%, unchanged [7] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber were 6.38 days, up 1.59%; the inventory days of polyester POY were 16.3 days, up 10.88%; the inventory days of polyester FDY were 21.2 days, up 4.43%; the inventory days of polyester DTY were 24.3 days, up 3.85% [7] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On December 10, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.6%, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expected that the interest rate cut cycle might be over - On December 10, Hassett said the Fed had enough room to cut interest rates significantly and would make interest rate decisions based on his judgment - On December 10, the Thailand - Cambodia conflict continued, with 7 deaths and 20 injuries in Cambodia and 4 deaths and 68 casualties in Thailand - On December 10, British media reported that Trump started the final round of interviews for the Fed chairperson this week, and Hassett was leading. Officials also proposed the possibility of Hassett shortening his term - On December 9, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that Russia would restrict the export of gold bars from 2026 - On December 9, Hassett, the favorite to be the Fed chairperson, said that the future path should not be announced in advance and reiterated data dependence - On December 9, the General Administration of Customs announced that in November, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On December 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 7.98 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.55 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.44 million meters [9] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester staple fiber production and sales situation, polyester filament production and sales situation, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [10][12][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR in the polyester industry chain are all expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, device maintenance, and raw material prices [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX**: Supply has increased with some domestic devices resuming load and an overseas device shutting down for maintenance. PTA demand has declined, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter and a de - stocking expectation in the second quarter. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **TA**: PTA supply is abundant with some devices planning to restart, and demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season. The inventory accumulation pattern persists, and the price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a monthly - difference positive arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **EG**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season, and there is a large resistance to price increases. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **PF**: The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is weak, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3] - **PR**: The supply of polyester bottle - chips is becoming more relaxed, demand is weak in the off - season, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **PX**: Supply is relatively loose before the maintenance. The price is supported by the upward trend of crude oil, and the decline space is limited. The price fluctuation is mainly affected by raw materials [5][7] - **PTA**: The load has decreased, supply is abundant, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The processing fee has weakened, and the valuation is low [9][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply remains at a high level, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The basis has strengthened, the coal - making profit has expanded, and the oil - making loss has expanded [13][15] - **Polyester**: The load has weakened, and terminal demand has weakened seasonally. The profit of polyester filament has increased slightly, the production and sales have improved, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of short - fiber has shrunk, the load has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of polyester bottle - chips is supported by the increase in raw materials, but the supply is expected to be more relaxed [20][22][24] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are presented, including the price trends of Asian PX and naphtha, various spread and profit indicators, and the PX start - up rate in China and Asia [27][32][43] - **PTA**: Data on price, spread, profit, supply - demand, and inventory are provided, such as the PTA spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the PTA start - up rate, and the PTA social inventory [48][51][68][71] - **MEG**: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are shown, including the MEG spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the MEG start - up rate, and the MEG port inventory [78][86][101][107] - **Polyester**: Data on profit, supply, and demand are presented, including the profit of polyester products, the start - up rate, inventory, and terminal demand indicators such as the开机率 of weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [109][113][119]

ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/8 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/4 | 2025/12/5 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 452.6 | 453. 7 | 1.10 | 成交情况: PTA:盘中原油行情偏弱震荡,PTA供需面暂无最新消 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1434.9 | 1380. 9 | -53.99 | 息,PTA行情微跌。PTA去库存中,现货基差均值上涨 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4363 | 1. 4188 | -0. 0174 | | | | CFR中国PX | 845 | 838 | -7 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 283 | 278 | -5 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4724 | 4678 | -46. ...

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a divergence with a strong raw material end and weak downstream demand, leading to price increases for PX and PTA due to tight supply, while prices for end products like polyester filament are declining due to insufficient orders [1] Group 1: Price Trends in the Industry - Crude oil prices showed mixed trends, with Brent averaging $62.97 per barrel, a slight decrease of 0.02%, while WTI increased by 0.58% to $58.87 per barrel [2] - PX prices rose to an average of $842.07 per ton, up 1.78% due to tight supply conditions [2] - PTA prices increased to 4690 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.41%, supported by cost factors and a balanced supply-demand situation [2] - MEG prices fell to 3859 yuan per ton, down 0.87%, driven by pessimistic market sentiment [2] - Polyester chip prices saw a slight increase, with semi-dull chips averaging 5587 yuan per ton, up 0.72% [3] - Polyester filament prices declined due to weak demand, with POY 150D/48F averaging 6475 yuan per ton, down 1.60% [3] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Situation - The domestic polyester industry produced 156.35 million tons this week, with a utilization rate of 87.47%, slightly up from the previous week [4] - Polyester chip inventory decreased to 11.76 days, while polyester filament inventory increased significantly due to poor sales [5] - The overall inventory for finished products increased to 24.62 days, indicating a buildup of stock amid declining orders [5] Group 3: Profit Analysis - The overall profit in the polyester industry is shifting towards the raw material end, with most finished products experiencing worsening profits [6] - PTA's theoretical gross profit is -283.31 yuan per ton, while MEG's integrated profit is -1034 yuan per ton, indicating significant losses [7] - Polyester bottle chips saw a slight profit recovery, while polyester filament profits dropped sharply, particularly for POY and FDY [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - PX prices are expected to remain strong, while PTA is projected to fluctuate between 4500-4700 yuan per ton due to tight supply-demand balance [8] - Polyester chip prices are anticipated to range between 5550-5650 yuan per ton, while polyester filament prices are expected to remain weak [8] - Key focus areas include geopolitical impacts on oil prices, spring order inquiries, and the progress of new production facilities [9][10]

聚酯产业链展望：成本弱供需强，产业链价格保持强势 20251204 摘要 聚酯产业链需求保持良好，但 PTA 因装置检修供应下降，乙二醇港口库 存持续上升，价格走势疲软，跌幅超过原油，与 PS 和 PT 价格在原油下 跌时上涨形成对比。 OPEC 暂停部分原油生产，缓解供应过剩预期，但 EIA 预测全球原油仍 将过剩。美国原油产量创新高，汽油库存回升，价格创近年新低。预计 12 月至明年 1 月原油需求将好转，但供应过剩和地缘政治风险限制价格 反弹空间。 PS 产量同比下降，消费量增加，供不应求，加工费升至年内高位，价格 持续上涨，受益于聚酯产业链需求。若原油价格反弹，PS 价格可能走强， 但需求回落则可能导致价格下跌。 2025 年 PTA 新增产能较大，但 2026 年无新增产能，供应压力较小。 PTA 库存持续回落，加工费虽低但有所回升，需关注装置重启情况和开 工率变动。 Q&A 今年以来原油及其相关产业链的价格表现如何？ 2025 年全年，原油价格整体表现偏弱，累计跌幅接近 20%。然而，在整个产 业链中，PS 和 PT 的价格表现明显偏强。尽管有涨有跌，但整体跌幅并不大。 相比之下，乙二醇（EG）的 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/12/3 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/1 | 2025/12/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 7 | 453.8 | -1.90 | 成交情况: PTA:成本支撑,PTA缓慢去库存中,下游刚需偏稳, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1450. 4 | 1454. 2 | 3.81 | PTA行情小涨。而PTA仓单数量较多,PTA现货基差上涨 之力。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4380 | 1. 4410 | 0. 0030 | | | | CFR中国PX | 849 | 849 | 0 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 277 | 282 | 5 | | | | PTA主力期 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost rebound drives PX and TA prices up, and attention should be paid to changes in polyester inventory [1] - Overall, the future price trend of PX and PTA is judged to be bullish or neutral - strong, with support from supply - side cost, potential demand strength, and low inventory pressure [54][61] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On November 28, the PX main contract closed at 6830.0 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 263.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4700.0 yuan/ton, up 1.47%, with a basis of - 90.0 yuan/ton [2] - Cost - end: On November 28, Brent crude's main contract closed at 62.92 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 59.1 dollars/barrel [2] - Supply - end: High PX device operating rate and stable PTA operating rate may push up PTA manufacturing cost and limit supply elasticity, providing upward support for PTA price [2] - Demand - end: Stable polyester operating rate may strengthen PTA's terminal consumption demand, especially in the polyester fiber field; stable or rising light textile city trading volume can boost PTA consumption, but seasonal demand decline may weaken price upward momentum [2] - Inventory - end: Low PTA factory inventory and deepening negative basis may strengthen upward pressure on futures prices; inventory accumulation may suppress price rebound space [3] Polyester - On November 28, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6250.0 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 6295.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45.0 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 of light textile city trading volume decreased from 710 million meters to 698.47 million meters, a decline of about 1.6%, indicating weakening terminal demand [4] - Polyester short - fiber inventory (6.28 days) is higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while polyester filament (POY, FDY, DTY) inventories are lower than historical averages, showing inventory differentiation with prominent short - fiber pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price rose 1.67%, trading volume decreased 26.72%, and open interest increased 2.16%; PX spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis decreased 74.17% [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price rose 1.47%, trading volume decreased 15.89%, and open interest increased 0.70%; PTA spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis decreased 309.09% [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price rose 1.43%, trading volume decreased 22.55%, and open interest decreased 5.18%; the spot price in the East China market rose 0.24%, and the basis decreased 61.86% [5] - Other industrial chain prices: Brent crude, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, and polyester bottle - chip prices remained unchanged; polyester chip, polyester POY, DTY, and FDY prices decreased [5] - Processing spreads: The spreads of naphtha and PX remained unchanged, while those of PTA, polyester chip, polyester bottle - chip, polyester short - fiber, POY, DTY, and FDY decreased [6] - Light textile city trading volume: The total volume was 778 million meters, with long - fiber fabric volume at 637 million meters and short - fiber fabric volume at 143 million meters [6] - Industrial chain load rates: PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged [6] - Inventory days: Polyester short - fiber, POY, and FDY inventory days increased, while DTY inventory days decreased [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On November 27, traders increased bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, expecting a cumulative 68 - basis - point cut by the end of 2026 [7] - On November 27, the US Treasury announced the replacement index value of October's CPI for inflation - protected Treasury bonds [7] - The Fed's Beige Book on November 27 showed that economic activity remained basically unchanged in recent weeks, with intensified consumer polarization [7] Supply - demand (Demand) - On November 27, the total trading volume in the light textile city was 778.0 million meters, a 14.58% month - on - month increase, with long - fiber fabric volume at 637.0 million meters and short - fiber fabric volume at 143.0 million meters [8] 4. Analysis of Future Price Trends Supply - end - High crude oil prices increase PX costs, which may drive up PX prices and support PTA supply costs; stable device operation can control supply pressure [53][59] Demand - end - Although there is no direct data, the rising prices may indicate good demand in the polyester and textile industries, but cautious judgment is needed [53][59] Inventory - end - Negative basis may indicate low inventory or strong futures expectations, suggesting potential price increases or low inventory levels [53][60]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/1 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/28 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 447.6 | 453.9 | 6. 30 | 成交情况: PTA:盘中原油行情反弹,成本支撑增强,PTA行情小 涨。或因PTA去库存速度放缓,PTA基差走弱。 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1379. 2 | 1401.5 | 22. 22 | | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4240 | 1. 4249 | 0. 0009 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 826 | 836 | 10 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 268 | 264 | -5 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) ...

Group 1: Report Title and Information - Report title: "Polyester Weekly Report 2025/11/29: Blending Narrative Pauses, but Supply and Demand Expectations Support Valuation" [1] - Contact person: Ma Guiyan, contact number: 13923915659, email: magy@wkqh.cn [1] - Transaction consultation number: Z0020397, qualification number: F03136381 [1] - Author: Liu Jiewen (Energy and Chemical Group), qualification number: F03097315 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN fluctuated and declined after reaching a high. Although the strong expectations for next year supported it to stop falling and rebound, the current PX load remains high, and there are many downstream PTA overhauls. The overall load center is low. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season for downstream products suppress PTA processing fees. The low PTA operation makes it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. It is expected that PX will slightly accumulate inventory in November. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees mainly showed a slight repair, mainly because continuous unexpected overhauls led to a certain repair of the balance sheet expectations. In the future, on the supply side, as processing fees gradually stabilize and repair, it is expected that unexpected overhauls will gradually decrease. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high in the short term. However, due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, the load of bottle chips is difficult to increase. In terms of valuation, the upside space of PTA processing fees is limited without further stimulation. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the domestic plant load is lower than expected due to a large number of unexpected overhauls. It is expected that the domestic supply volume will decrease in December, and the import volume will slightly decline. The port inventory accumulation rate may slow down. In the medium term, as the overhauls end, it is expected that the domestic output will still be high. Coupled with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the supply - demand pattern is still weak. The current valuation is relatively low compared to the same period, but it is necessary to further reduce the load to slow down the inventory accumulation process. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies in the medium term [13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 80 yuan to 6830 yuan. The CFR China price in the spot market fell by 7 US dollars to 826 US dollars. The spot - converted basis rose by 10 yuan, reaching - 9 yuan as of November 29. The 1 - 3 spread fell by 14 yuan, reaching - 14 yuan as of November 28 [11]. - Supply side: Last week, the Chinese load was 88.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the Asian load was 78.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, the 550,000 - ton plant of GS in South Korea reduced its load. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 275,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle of November, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, although there were some unexpected plant situations recently, the contribution to the reduction of supply was small, and the subsequent domestic maintenance volume was still small, with the load remaining high [11]. - Demand side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month inventory increase of 48,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from November to December, mainly due to a significant increase in PTA maintenance volume [11]. - Valuation cost side: As of November 27, PXN was 260 US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1 US dollar; the naphtha crack spread fell by 5 US dollars, reaching 105 US dollars as of November 27, and the crude oil trend fluctuated. In terms of aromatics blending, last week, the gasoline crack spread between the US and Asia declined, the US gasoline inventory increased, the aromatics spread between the US and Asia decreased, and the relative value of blending declined [11]. PTA - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 34 yuan to 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China fell by 20 yuan to 4610 yuan. The spot basis rose by 25 yuan, reaching - 38 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread fell by 8 yuan, reaching - 52 yuan as of November 28 [12]. - Supply side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [12]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 33,000 tons. The downstream load remained high, and the expected increase in PTA maintenance volume in November is expected to lead to a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Profit side: Last week, the spot processing fee increased by 25 yuan, reaching 190 yuan/ton as of November 27; the disk processing fee increased by 9 yuan, reaching 225 yuan/ton as of November 27 [12]. MEG - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 77 yuan to 3885 yuan. The spot price in East China rose by 15 yuan to 3900 yuan. The basis fell by 28 yuan, reaching 4 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, reaching - 93 yuan as of November 28 [13]. - Supply side: Last week, the EG load was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%; the ethylene - based load was 73.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In terms of synthetic gas - based plants, Yankuang resumed production, Hongsifang was restarting, and Meijin increased its load; in terms of petrochemical plants, Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced its load, Zhenhai and Yuandonglian increased their loads, Shenghong restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, South Asia in the United States had an unexpected shutdown, and plants such as Morvarid in Iran, Donglian in Taiwan, China, and Zhongxian were under maintenance. Overall, there were many unexpected overhauls recently, and the subsequent load will improve compared to the previous high level. In terms of arrivals, the arrival forecast last week was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons. The imports in October were 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [13]. - Inventory: As of November 24, the port inventory was 732,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month; the downstream factory inventory days were 15 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.2 days. In the short term, the arrival volume decreased last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. It is expected that the port inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The increase in unexpected domestic plant overhauls and the expected decrease in overseas arrivals in December have improved the ethylene glycol balance sheet expectations [13]. - Valuation cost side: The naphtha - based production profit increased by 70 yuan to - 828 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based production profit increased by 21 yuan to - 668 yuan/ton, and the coal - based production profit decreased by 224 yuan to - 74 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 680 yuan/ton. The coal cost rebounded, and ethylene remained stable. Currently, the overall valuation is moderately low [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - PX: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [32][35]. - PTA: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [44][47]. - MEG: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [57][65]. - Overseas commodity prices: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented through charts [75]. 3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - Supply: The load remained at a high level. The Chinese and Asian PX operating rates were presented through charts [82]. - Import: The import volume decreased slightly in October. The import data from different regions were presented through charts [86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory accumulation in October. The social inventory and warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [88]. - Cost - profit: PXN was strong, the short - process spread widened, and the naphtha crack spread was strong. The relevant cost - profit data were presented through multiple charts [92]. - Aromatics blending: The gasoline performance weakened, and data on octane value, aromatics spreads, blending relative value, South Korean aromatics inventory, and trade were presented through multiple charts [99][105][109][111][114][122]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new PTA production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [133]. - Load: The load data were presented through a chart [136]. - Export: The total export and export data to specific regions were presented through charts [138]. - Inventory: The end - of - period inventory, in - plant inventory days, and total warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [140]. - Profit valuation: The processing fee was slightly repaired. The spot processing fee, disk processing fee, and acetic acid cost data were presented through charts [142]. 5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new MEG production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [146]. - Supply: The operating rate rebounded. The overall operating rate, synthetic gas - based operating rate, and ethylene - based operating rate data were presented through charts [149]. - Import: The import data from different regions were presented through charts [152]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation slowed down this week, and the upstream and downstream factory inventories were high. The relevant inventory data were presented through multiple charts [159]. - Cost: Coal prices fluctuated, and ethylene prices were weak. The relevant cost data were presented through charts [169]. - Profit: The naphtha - based production profit declined to the lowest level of the year, and the coal - based production profit was significantly compressed. The relevant profit data were presented through multiple charts [172]. 6. Polyester and Terminal - Polyester - New capacity: There were new polyester production capacities put into operation, mainly in the form of polyester filament and bottle chip. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [186]. - Basis: The staple fiber basis was strong, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [189]. - Supply: The operating rate remained stable at a high level. The downstream proportion and operating rate data were presented through charts [192]. - Inventory: The filament inventory was at a low level. The inventory data of different polyester products were presented through charts [200]. - Sales rate: The sales rate data of filament, staple fiber, and chips were presented through charts [206]. - Profit: The filament profit was repaired. The profit data of different polyester products were presented through charts [209]. - Terminal - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The operating rate data of different terminal industries were presented through charts [213]. - Order and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation decreased. The relevant data were presented through charts [222]. - Textile and clothing and soft drinks: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand recovered, and exports were weak. The relevant data were presented through charts [226]. - US clothing inventory: The wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally. The relevant data were presented through charts [228].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device production is putting pressure on the price. Coal prices have risen, but the cost support for ethylene glycol is not strong. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 447.9 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/24 to 448.6 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/25, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Price decreased from 1425.1 yuan/ton to 1396.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.09 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4378 to 1.4282, a change of - 0.0096 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price remained at 826, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 264 to 263, a change of - 1 [2]. - **PTA**: The main futures price decreased from 4680 yuan/ton to 4656 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton; the spot price remained at 4630 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased from 212.0 yuan/ton to 213.4 yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 262.0 yuan/ton to 239.4 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.7 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from (49) to (43), a change of 6.0; the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 117828 to 118438, a change of 610 [2]. - **MEG**: The main futures price decreased from 3884 yuan/ton to 3873 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (144.73) to (144.92), a change of - 0.2; the MEG domestic price increased from 3890 to 3920, a change of 30.0; the main basis decreased from 35 to 33, a change of - 2.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate decreased from 87.39% to 86.48%, a change of - 0.91% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate increased from 72.11% to 73.44%, a change of 1.33% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate increased from 60.33% to 61.48%, a change of 1.15% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained at 89.19%, a change of 0.00% [2]. 3. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Fibers - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6545 to 6500, a change of - 45.0; POY cash flow decreased from 33 to (22), a change of - 55.0; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 6755 to 6755, a change of - 70.0; FDY cash flow decreased from (187) to (267), a change of - 80.0; DTY150D/48F price decreased from 7865 to 7855, a change of - 10.0; DTY cash flow decreased from 153 to 133, a change of - 20.0; the filament sales rate increased from 43% to 96%, a change of 53% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple price increased from 6350 to 6385, a change of 35; the staple fiber cash flow increased from 188 to 213, a change of 25.0; the staple fiber sales rate increased from 65% to 79%, a change of 14% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5545 to 5550, a change of 5.0; the chip cash flow decreased from (67) to (72), a change of - 5.0; the chip sales rate increased from 60% to 65%, a change of 5% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The device was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2]