【笔记20250611— 债市开启"单曲循环"模式（+中美会谈未超预期+彭博称央行买断式逆回购询量-股市 偏强+资金面均衡宽松=小下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1640亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2149亿元逆回购到期，净回笼509亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.37%附近，DR007在1.53%附近。 窄幅震荡 = 能量聚集。窄幅震荡是合围战、歼灭战。 双方集中优势兵力，缩小阵地范围，在此一决雌 雄，双方对峙时间越长，窄幅震荡突破后，力度就会越强，延续性也会更长。 ——笔记哥《交易》 股民：昨天小作文说谈崩了，这不就证伪了嘛，利好！ 债农："原则上"、"框架性"表明很多细节尚未敲定，进展不能说"有限"，只能说"没有"，利好！ 【今日盘面】 250011 1.6575/1.6575/1.6400/1.6430 -1.45 250210 1.7050/1.7050/1.6950/1.6990 -0.55 2500002 1.8700/1.8700/1.8490/1.8510 -1.80 中美会谈未超预期，股市偏强，彭博称央行询量六个月期买断式逆回购，利率震荡 ...

半年度宏观展望：柳暗花明，股债双牛 20250602 摘要 中国 2025 年全年 GDP 预计增长 5%，受益于美国关税阶段性下调和积 极的财政政策，但下半年可能面临增速放缓，三、四季度 GDP 增速或分 别降至 4.8%和 4.7%。 下半年财政和货币政策预计将侧重于稳就业，针对低附加值企业订单流 失导致的就业问题，政策将更偏向供给端，需求侧刺激可能相对缺位， 物价表现预计偏弱。 中美经贸关系仍具不确定性，关税豁免期结束后，关税上浮概率较大， 但两国元首可能在 G20 峰会上会面，或提振市场对达成经贸协定的预期。 下半年看好股票和债券，股票方面，红利类资产因中美关系不确定性具 备防御优势，科技类资产受益于机构资产配置偏好调整；债券方面，预 计 10 年期国债利率可能继续下探至 1.5%。 制造业投资是固定资产投资中最强劲的指标，受益于重大工程投资、设 备更新和高技术相关投资，以及新质生产力的推动，全年增速预计为 9.0%。 Q&A 2025 年下半年宏观经济环境的总体判断是什么？ 2025 年下半年，宏观经济依然面临一定的下行压力。全年需求被前置是主要 原因之一，因此预计三四季度 GDP 可能会下降。从外 ...

Group 1 - Major brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market performance in the second half of 2025, expecting stabilization and upward movement driven by multiple policy benefits and industrial upgrades [1][2] - Key investment opportunities are emerging, particularly in the technology and domestic consumption sectors, as highlighted by various analysts [1][3] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "dual bull" trend in stocks and bonds, with a focus on value discovery and structural bull market characteristics [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with favorable conditions and policy support, while also considering defensive assets that can hedge against potential external risks [3][4] - The research perspective has expanded to global trade, with recommendations for sectors such as home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, and online retail, which are expected to benefit from the establishment of a long-term domestic consumption mechanism [4] - Key areas for investment include technology growth, military industry, and sectors with improved cost structures, as well as stable dividend stocks suitable for long-term holdings [4]

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Core Viewpoint - The scale of wealth management products in China has reached a new high, surpassing 31 trillion yuan in May 2023, driven by declining loan rates and a shift towards short-term products as a substitute for deposits [1][3][4]. Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - As of May 20, 2023, the total scale of wealth management products reached approximately 31.3 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.6 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [1][2]. - The growth in wealth management products is primarily attributed to short-term products, with a notable increase in daily open-type products and those with a maturity of one month or less [4][5]. - The rapid increase in wealth management scale began in April 2023, coinciding with a more relaxed liquidity environment and a decline in deposit rates by major banks [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive plan including a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with expectations for further rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][6]. - Market analysts predict a continued downward trend in interest rates, which is expected to support the bond market and contribute to a steady increase in wealth management scale [6][7]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Performance - There is a growing trend towards "fixed income plus" strategies in wealth management products, with a small allocation to equity assets as the stock market shows signs of recovery [9][10]. - Wealth management products focusing on cash management and short-term investments are gaining popularity due to their safety and liquidity, often offering higher yields compared to money market funds [5][9]. - The performance of "fixed income plus" products varies significantly, with some achieving notable returns while others lag behind, indicating a diverse performance landscape within the wealth management sector [9][10].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a mild rebound, influenced by the recent fund regulations that are being digested by investors [1][2] - The new fund regulations are expected to reshape the A-share market dynamics, as fund managers will adopt a more conservative approach to stock selection to maintain their income [2] - The sudden rise in bank stocks is attributed to fund managers needing to increase their holdings in this sector to meet performance benchmarks [2] Group 2 - Sectors that have been heavily bought by funds, such as technology stocks, are facing selling pressure as fund managers rebalance their portfolios [2][8] - The impact of the new regulations will take time to manifest, but the overall trend remains bullish for both stocks and bonds due to a loose monetary and credit environment [5][8] - Despite expectations of interest rate cuts benefiting bonds, long-term bond prices have not seen significant increases, indicating that credit easing is offsetting the effects of monetary easing [5] Group 3 - The recent regulatory measures aim to stabilize the A-share market, reducing the likelihood of significant declines [8] - Investors are advised to focus on longer-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations, as large institutional investors are accumulating positions quietly [8][10] - Understanding institutional trading strategies is crucial for investors to capitalize on market movements and avoid common pitfalls [12][17]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 08 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/费瑾】宏观专题研究：货币政策再宽松驱动股债双牛——20250507 3、资金 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：5 月 7 日上证指数上涨 0.8%，沪深 300 上涨 0.61%，科创 50 上涨 0.36%，中证 1000 上涨 0.14%，创业板指 上涨 0.51%，恒生指数上涨 0.13%。 行业：5 月 7 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+3.7%)、银行（+1.49%)、基础化工（+1.15%)、房地产（+1.06%)、 石油石化（+0.91%)，表现最差的行业分别是传媒（-0.56%)、计算机（-0.42%)、电子（-0.37%)、社会服务（-0.24%)、 医药生物（-0.12%)。 资金：5 月 7 日全 A 总成交额为 15051 亿元，南下资金净 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 07 日 货币政策再宽松驱动股债双牛 ——5 月 7 日央行一揽子货币政策解读 核心观点 2025 年 5 月 7 日国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，央行行长潘功胜提出一揽子货币 政策措施，主要有三类十项政策，我们将其总结为 5 类重点工具： 分析师：李超 执业证书号：S1230520030002 lichao1@stocke.com.cn 分析师：费瑾 执业证书号：S1230524070007 feijin@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 工具 1：央行降准 50BP，旨在推动适度宽信用，并缓解政府债集中供给出现的资金面 扰动；工具 2：央行降息 10BP 并引导 LPR 回落，旨在降低实体部门融资成本；工具 3：结构性货币政策利率下调，再贷款额度扩围；工具 4：优化两项支持资本市场的货 币政策工具，旨在依托对市场最熟悉的上市公司和行业机构主动识别优质上市公司， 自行决定是否加杠杆买股票，进而用市场化的手段，促进金融市场长期健康发展；工 具 5：创设科技创新债券风险分担工具，助力传统的城投平台正加速向科创产业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On April 22, the bond and stock markets both showed positive trends, but the market direction remains unclear and the oscillation is expected to continue [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On April 22, treasury bond futures closed with across - the - board gains. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.50%, 0.17%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively. The treasury bond futures index was 0.1. The volume - price factor was bullish, while the fundamental factor was bearish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy were - 0.55% in the past 20 days, - 0.64% in the past 60 days, 0.28% in the past 120 days, and 1.03% in the past 240 days [1] - The market opened lower and then oscillated and rebounded. The ChiNext Index led the gains, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded seven consecutive positive days. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.59%. Most stocks rose, with over 4300 stocks in the entire market rising [1] Capital Situation - On April 22, the overnight shibor was 1.7090%, down 0.7bp from the previous trading day; the 7 - day shibor was 1.6700%, down 1.0bp; the 14 - day shibor was 1.8000%, up 0.3bp; the 1 - month shibor was 1.7540%, down 0.4bp [2] Treasury Bond Futures Market - The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year main contracts on the previous trading day are provided. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year active CTD bonds and their IRRs are also given, with the current R007 around 1.7262% [3] Money and Bond Markets - On April 22, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.12%. Overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day, and 1 - month rates showed different changes compared to the previous trading day [4] - The treasury bond yield curve shifted down by 0.52 - 1.54BP, while the credit bond yield curve showed mixed changes [4] Institutional Position Changes - The daily net long - position changes of private funds, foreign capital, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 1.47%, 4.61%, and 3.64% respectively. The weekly changes showed that private funds increased by 1.61%, while foreign capital and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.67% and 0.57% respectively [6] Macro and Industry News - On April 22, the central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.50%, unchanged from before [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral view [10]