投资的事情大家还是要重视，做到进可攻退可守，因为行情的本质就是涨涨跌跌，从来没有只涨不跌的 行情，也没有只跌不涨的行情，包括现在咱们一路做空的商品期货，下一步也要开始中线做多了，当 然，普通投资者只会称之为"抄底"，但其实是整个过程多和空都做的，就是按照市场的规律，价格运行 的原则，顺势借用规则本身优势。 股期搭配，赚钱不累"，但今日早盘A股在美联储无限量放水的利好刺激下大幅高开。但是从盘面上 看，主力资金沪深两市总共才流入20亿，说明追涨意愿不强，短线可能还要回踩测试下方2678—2699缺 口的支撑力度。行情仍以震荡上涨为主，建议大家继续配置股指期货做日内交易。个股方面，如果大盘 回踩缺口获得有效支撑，可再考虑低吸。我在周天下午就通知大家抄底原油的机会，昨天一天行情低开 后反弹不少，沥青日内给到了50%的利润机会，燃油有40%的利润机会，赚的最少的甲醇也有12%的机 会，总之有关于原油的下属产品都迎来了绝佳的抄底机会。隔夜原油再次大涨，想必今天的机会也不会 小，大家紧盯社区助理的通知，把握好这波抄底机会 ...

Core Insights - Koei Tecmo, co-founded by Keiko Erikawa, has revised its profit forecast for Q2 of FY2026, expecting profits to double compared to initial estimates, driven by better-than-expected game performance and a significant increase in operating profit from 8 billion yen to 17.5 billion yen [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Koei Tecmo's non-operating income reached 13.792 billion yen in Q1 FY2024, significantly higher than the operating profit of 5.723 billion yen during the same period [2][3]. - In FY2021, Koei Tecmo achieved a total profit of 39.3 billion yen, with 14.9 billion yen coming from stock sales, indicating that investment income accounted for nearly 40% of total profits [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company has maintained a "no debt, no loss, no layoffs" record since its establishment, attributed to Erikawa's adept stock investment skills [4][20]. - Koei Tecmo manages an investment fund of approximately 120 billion yen, allowing it to sustain operations even during periods of low game sales by using stock market gains as a buffer [4][20]. Group 3: Historical Context and Development - Koei Tecmo transitioned from dye wholesale to computer games in 1980, with its first game, "Kawanakajima no Kassen," selling around 10,000 copies, a notable achievement at the time [14][17]. - The company launched its first "otome game," "Angelique," in 1994, establishing a significant presence in the female-oriented gaming market [24][26]. Group 4: Leadership and Recognition - Keiko Erikawa has been recognized by Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank, as a highly respected entrepreneur and was appointed as the first external director of SoftBank Group [20][38]. - Erikawa's investment acumen has positioned her among the top female stockholders in Japan, with a personal wealth estimated at approximately 16.5 billion USD [36][38].

Core Insights - Alico, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALCO) is focused on agribusiness, particularly citrus production and land management, with a positive outlook from analysts [1][5] - Roth Capital has set a price target of $42 for ALCO, indicating a potential increase of about 22.8% from its current price of $34.20 [1][5] - Accordant Advisory Group Inc has increased its investment in Alico by 14.4%, now holding 50,202 shares valued at $1.6 million, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [2][5] Investment Activity - Other investment firms have also shown increased interest in Alico, with Peapod Lane Capital LLC raising its holdings by 0.3% to 131,265 shares valued at $4.3 million [3] - Towerview LLC has boosted its holdings by 8.7%, now owning 125,000 shares worth $4.1 million, indicating a broader interest in Alico's potential [3] Stock Performance - ALCO's current stock price is $34.46, reflecting an increase of approximately 3.55% or $1.18, with a market capitalization of approximately $263.22 million [4] - The stock has fluctuated between a low of $33.49 and a high of $34.74 today, and over the past year, it has reached a high of $35.90 and a low of $24.76 [4]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings (BKNG) is approaching a significant inflection point, with its stock price entering a historically supportive range that has previously led to substantial gains [2][3] - The stock is currently trading within the $4,529.60–$5,006.40 support band, which has historically attracted buyers and resulted in an average peak gain of 19.9% after testing this area [3] - A rebound is likely due to strong Q3 2025 results, bullish analyst sentiment, and favorable travel demand trends [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 results exceeded expectations, with gross bookings increasing by 14% and adjusted EPS rising by 19% [4] - Booking Holdings has demonstrated revenue growth of 13.0% over the last twelve months and an average of 17.8% over the last three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of 31.9% and an operating margin of 34.5% for the last twelve months [10] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Analysts predominantly maintain "Buy" ratings for BKNG, with average price targets indicating significant upside potential [4] - Industry tailwinds, including resilient global travel demand and the rapid adoption of travel technology, contribute to a favorable market environment for the company [4] Risks and Historical Performance - BKNG has experienced significant declines in past market downturns, including a 90% drop during the Dot-Com bust and a 66% decline during the Global Financial Crisis [6] - The stock is vulnerable to sell-offs even in stable market conditions, influenced by earnings announcements and business updates [7] Valuation Metrics - BKNG is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 30.6 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant divergence in the behavior of retail investors in the U.S., with a strong preference for buying stocks while simultaneously selling off cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, indicating a shift in market sentiment and capital flow [1][3][6]. Group 1: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors are actively buying stock ETFs, with a net inflow of approximately $96 billion by November 18, suggesting a bullish sentiment towards equities [1][3]. - In contrast, retail investors sold around $4 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in November, marking a record monthly sell-off [3][6]. - The preference for stocks over cryptocurrencies is evident, as retail investors have consistently sold crypto ETFs while buying stocks in recent months [6][11]. Group 2: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price has fallen below the estimated production cost of approximately $94,000 for the first time since July 2020, indicating a lack of support from mining costs [3][6]. - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to non-native investors, particularly retail investors selling off their holdings after a period of deleveraging in the crypto market [3][6]. Group 3: MicroStrategy's Position - MicroStrategy, a company heavily invested in Bitcoin, has seen its stock underperform relative to Bitcoin, with a significant narrowing of its valuation premium [6][9]. - A critical decision by MSCI on January 15, 2024, regarding the potential removal of MicroStrategy from its indices could trigger substantial passive selling, estimated at around $2.8 billion, with total potential outflows reaching $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit [8][9][11]. - The market is sensitive to the MSCI decision, as removal could impact MicroStrategy's liquidity and increase future financing costs, further eroding its valuation premium [11].

Core Points - President Trump has proposed potential stimulus checks of $2,000 or more, referred to as "tariff dividend" checks, aimed at providing relief amid rising prices and economic uncertainty [1][2] - The checks are expected to be funded by tariff revenues, but there are concerns regarding the financial implications, with estimates suggesting a cost of around $600 billion, which exceeds projected tariff income [4] - Congressional approval is required for these payments, similar to previous stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic [5] Summary by Category Proposed Stimulus Checks - Trump indicated that the checks could be distributed by mid-2026, targeting "moderate income, middle income" Americans [2][3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that eligibility will be income-based, potentially including tax relief instead of direct payments [3] Economic Context - The proposed checks are seen as a response to macroeconomic challenges, including inflation and uncertainty in the market [1] - Previous stimulus payments during the pandemic were utilized by consumers for various purposes, including investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies [6] Historical Investment Performance - The article reviews the performance of investments made with previous stimulus checks: - Investing $3,200 in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust would have grown to approximately $6,292.57 [10] - An investment in Apple stock would have increased to about $9,151.66 [11] - Nvidia stock would have yielded a value of around $62,880.50 [12] - Tesla stock would have reached approximately $15,761.04 [13] Detailed Investment Returns - Specific returns from previous stimulus checks are highlighted: - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: - $1,200 check: worth $2,865.07 (+138.8%) - $600 check: worth $1,058.69 (+76.4%) - $1,400 check: worth $2,368.81 (+69.2%) [14] - Apple: - $1,200 check: worth $4,849.62 (+304.1%) - $600 check: worth $1,171.07 (+95.2%) - $1,400 check: worth $3,130.97 (+123.6%) [15] - Nvidia: - $1,200 check: worth $34,206.12 (+2,750.5%) - $600 check: worth $8,519.52 (+1,319.9%) - $1,400 check: worth $20,154.76 (+1,339.6%) [16] - Tesla: - $1,200 check: worth $12,253.68 (+921.1%) - $600 check: worth $1,080.73 (+80.1%) - $1,400 check: worth $2,426.63 (+73.3%) [17]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market indices continued to decline on the 19th, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.34% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index down by 0.17% [2] - Over the previous three trading days, the Nikkei index had dropped more than 2500 points, leading to increased buying activity in the morning session on the 19th [2] - Investor sentiment was affected by the overall decline in the New York stock market and anticipation surrounding Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, which pressured semiconductor-related stocks [2] - Concerns over deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations continued to impact the market, with companies like Shiseido, Sushi郎, Sony Group, and Sanrio, which are linked to the Chinese market, experiencing weak rebounds and continued declines [2] - Analysts noted that the current situation makes the performance outlook for related companies uncertain, leading investors to avoid these stocks [2] - By the close, the Nikkei index fell by 165.28 points to 48537.70, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index decreased by 5.52 points to 3245.58 [2] - Among the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, sectors such as machinery, metal products, and fisheries saw significant declines, while oil and coal products, retail, and real estate sectors led the gains [2]

Group 1 - GQG Partners increased its stake in five Adani Group companies, including Adani Energy Solutions and Adani Enterprises, through block deals exceeding ₹4,500 crore [1] - The investment firm also established new positions in GMR Airports and other significant Indian corporations such as Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India [1]

Core Insights - Shares of Alphabet Inc. experienced a significant increase in premarket trading following Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s announcement of a substantial new investment in the company, marking a notable addition to its portfolio in Q3 2025 [1] Company Summary - Berkshire Hathaway acquired 17.8 million Class A shares of Alphabet, which are valued at $4 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has made significant changes to its stock portfolio in the third quarter, including a new investment in Alphabet and a reduction in its holdings of Apple [3][12]. Group 1: Portfolio Changes - Berkshire Hathaway initiated a position in Alphabet, purchasing approximately 17.8 million shares valued at about $4.34 billion, representing 1.62% of its total portfolio [7][10]. - The total market value of Berkshire's stock holdings reached $267 billion, with the top ten holdings accounting for 86.69% of the total portfolio [5][6]. - In the third quarter, Berkshire sold off about 41.8 million shares of Apple, reducing its stake by 14.92%, while still holding over 238 million shares valued at approximately $60.66 billion, making Apple its largest holding [12][14]. Group 2: Increased Holdings - Berkshire increased its stake in Chubb Limited (formerly known as ACE Limited) by approximately 4.3 million shares, raising its market value by $1.21 billion, with the holding percentage increasing from 3.04% to 3.31% [9][10]. - Additional increases were noted in Sirius XM, Domino's Pizza, and Lennar Corporation, reflecting a strategic focus on these companies [9]. Group 3: Reduced Holdings - The company further reduced its holdings in Bank of America by approximately 37.2 million shares, decreasing its stake from 11.12% to 10.96% [12][14]. - Berkshire completely exited its position in D.R. Horton, selling all 1.485 million shares, which is significant given the company's role as a barometer for the U.S. housing market [14][15].