Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in the US has postponed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, and precious metals have entered a stage of shock consolidation. The market has postponed the next interest rate cut from June to July. Spot gold remains above $5000, and after a significant pullback from the historical high at the beginning of the month, it has recovered about half of the decline. The market has shifted from the "accelerated rise" stage to the "macro - verification" driven stage [1]. - For gold, the sentiment has ebbed, the logic remains unchanged, but the upward rhythm has slowed down. For silver, high volatility continues, and the structural supply shortage still exists [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Firstly, the non - farm payrolls in January were stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, strengthening the Fed's inclination to keep interest rates unchanged, which put pressure on the gold price. Secondly, the US dollar index remained relatively stable, and the US Treasury yields rebounded, resulting in a lack of trend - driving force for precious metals in the short term. Thirdly, the gold price soared to a new historical high driven by speculative buying, then pulled back about 13% in two days, and has now recovered about half of the decline, indicating a shift from momentum - driven to macro - verification - driven [1]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, geopolitical disturbances, disputes over the Fed's independence, and the global asset re - allocation trend still provide core support. The structural logic of the previous rise has not changed fundamentally, but the upward rhythm will be more moderate, and the volatility will be significantly lower than that in the previous accelerated stage [1]. Silver - **Logic**: Firstly, silver is more sensitive to interest rates and the US dollar. After the release of strong employment data, its volatility increased, and the daily amplitude was significantly higher than that of gold. Secondly, silver has fallen about 30% from its historical high on January 29th, and the recovery process is more intense, indicating that its small market capacity and low liquidity lead to amplified elasticity. Thirdly, in terms of supply and demand, the silver market is expected to be in a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year. Investment demand is still the core variable. The tight inventory pattern in the Chinese market has not been fully alleviated, and the exchange has strengthened management of the delivery process, which may suppress some speculative squeezing behavior in the short term [2]. - **Outlook**: Overall, silver is in a game between the pressure on its financial attributes and the structural supply shortage. Its price path depends more on the confirmation of the macro direction. Once the real interest rate falls again, the elasticity of the silver price may be reflected again [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: No detailed information provided. - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [41]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on February 11, 2026, is 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a decline of 1.35% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.30% in the past month, and an increase of 11.61% since the beginning of the year [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a stable range, and investors are advised to pay attention to US CPI data. During the long Spring Festival holiday, investors are recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks from overseas market fluctuations. [6] - In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The price center of precious metals still has room to rise, and long - term strategies suggest buying on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **2.11 vs 2.10 Price Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, London gold spot rose 0.8% to $5064.52 per ounce, London silver spot rose 2.7% to $83.45 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.9% to $5088.90 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.9% to $83.23 per ounce, AU2602 rose 0.8% to 1133.00 yuan per gram, AG2602 rose 4.0% to 20505.00 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.8% to 1126.49 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 4.0% to 19949.00 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **2.11 vs 2.10 Spread/Ratio Changes**: The gold TD - SHFE active spread rose 9.2% to - 6.51 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread rose 4.9% to - 556 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) rose 8.9% to - 4.16 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) fell 16.2% to - 977 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 3.1% to 55.25, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 2.0% to 61.15, the AU2604 - 2602 spread fell 5.1% to 2.60 yuan per gram, and the AG2604 - 2602 spread fell 23.4% to - 439 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.2 Position Data - **2.10 vs 2.9 Position Changes**: On February 10, compared with February 9, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased 0.03% to 1079.32 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased 0.16% to 16216.45052 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased 14.91% to 214508 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 4.71% to 48904 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions decreased 19.37% to 165604 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased 10.56% to 38883 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 34.22% to 13006 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 9.17% to 25877 contracts. [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **2.11 vs 2.10 Inventory Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 105072.00 kilograms, the SHFE silver inventory increased 5.79% to 342102.00 kilograms, the COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18% to 35229811 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased 1.07% to 386273025 troy ounces. [5] 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - **2.11 vs 2.10 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell 0.03% to 6.94, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.86% to 3.45%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.42% to 4.16%, the VIX rose 2.48% to 17.79, the S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 6941.81, and NYWEX crude oil fell 0.34% to 64.20. [5] 3.5 Market Review - On February 11, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.56% to 1130.4 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.88% to 20944 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical situation has increased, and safe - haven demand and continued gold purchases by global central banks have pushed up precious metal prices. However, the unexpectedly strong US January non - farm payrolls report has shifted the market's expectation of the Fed's first interest rate cut from June to July, strengthening the US dollar index and pressuring precious metal prices. [6] - For silver, the relatively high London spot silver lease rate, the decline in New York inventory, and the low - level inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange limit the downward space of silver prices. But due to the inflow of imported silver into the market and weak pre - holiday market demand, the domestic silver price is continuously at a discount to the overseas price, and the monthly spread of silver futures has also narrowed. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Postpone [9] Core Viewpoints - The market has basically priced in the slowdown of the interest rate cut rhythm in 2026. The unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data has a short-term negative impact on gold prices. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the near future. The Au2604 contract may oscillate between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8]. - The macro logic of silver is similar to that of gold. However, due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The Ag2604 contract may oscillate between 20,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In January, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year, exceeding the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%. The average hourly wage increased by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%. Traders are now fully pricing in a Fed rate cut in July, compared with the previous expectation of June. Geopolitically, there is uncertainty as Trump is privately considering withdrawing from the North American trade agreement [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On February 11, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.68 yuan/gram and closed at 1,130.40 yuan/gram, a change of 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 1,133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1,118.20 yuan/gram, a 0.44% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,420.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20,944.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 3.25% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,079 lots, and the open interest was 211,818 lots. The night session opened at 21,718 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20,965 yuan/kilogram, a 2.27% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 11, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.16%, a change of -0.06% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.71%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On February 11, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 93,387 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 24,886 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 282,196 lots, a change of -3.31% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 126,073 lots, and the short positions changed by 129,594 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,084,057 lots, a change of -14.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.32 tons, a decrease of 0.34 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,216 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 11, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 0.14 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 54.63 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 53.97, a change of -2.36% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 61.35, a change of -1.25% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,974 kilograms, a change of -7.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 232,512 kilograms, a change of -19.36% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The international precious metals market has seen a significant surge, with spot gold approaching $5100 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.37% [1] - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price targets, with Societe Generale predicting a rise to $6000 within the year, and Wells Fargo increasing its target to $6300 [6] - JPMorgan forecasts that if private sector demand continues to grow, gold prices could reach approximately $8000 per ounce by the end of the decade [6] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - Spot silver has also experienced a substantial increase, rising by 5.99% to reach $85.589 per ounce [4] - The World Silver Association reports that the silver market will face a deficit for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces [7] - Factors supporting silver prices include tight physical supply in London, geopolitical instability, uncertainty in U.S. policies, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that international precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing significant price increases, with gold nearing $5100 per ounce and silver rising sharply to $85.589 per ounce [1][4]. - Spot gold has increased by 1.37% to $5096.600, with a daily high of $5101.230 and a low of $5023.920 [2]. - Spot silver has surged by 5.99%, reaching a high of $85.703, with a previous close of $80.751 [5]. Group 2 - Major financial institutions are raising their gold price targets, with forecasts suggesting gold could reach $6000 by the end of the year according to Societe Generale, and Wells Fargo increasing its target to $6300 [7]. - JPMorgan Chase indicates that if private sector demand continues to grow, gold prices could potentially reach around $8000 per ounce by the end of the decade [7]. - The World Silver Association reports that the silver market will face a supply gap of 67 million ounces by 2026, driven by factors such as tight physical supply in London and geopolitical uncertainties [7].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1130.400 | 9.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 20944 | +660.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 160,510.00 | +3600.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 9,050.00 | +74.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 217,933.00 | -164.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 504,079.00 | -107478.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 342,102 | 18734↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1123.02 | 6.33↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 19,556.00 | 266.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -7.38 | -2.85↓ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

Group 1 - Spot silver has increased by over 3%, currently priced at $83.86 per ounce [1] - New York futures gold has surpassed $5,090 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.18% [1]

2 2019 | 2023-10 | 2024-10 | 0155707 | 25 | ETF-SPDR ETF-SLV RETF-SLV RETE | 2025-02 2025-05 | 2026-02 | 2025-08 | 2025-11 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | -SHFE金银比价 | 一美元指数· | -- NYMEX轻质原油 | 一伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | （1）行情回顾：2月10日，沪金期货主力合约收涨0.48%至1121.22元/克，沪银期货主力收涨1.97%至20284元/千克。 (2) 影响因素分析: 美国12月零售销售数据环比特平，低于预期，美元指数继续走弱，加上中东地缘局势不确定性仍旧较高等，贵金属价格延期仓稳回升态势. ffilfølsin 此外，中国央行连续第1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ongoing bull market for gold and the uncertain path for silver, highlighting the fundamental differences between the two precious metals [1] - Recent U.S. economic data, including retail sales and non-farm payrolls, are expected to have limited impact on market trends, with the focus shifting to geopolitical developments [1][3] - The current market is characterized by a "sweeping" phase, where both upward and downward movements lack sustainability, leading to a volatile trading environment [3][5] Group 2 - Gold is currently trading within a triangular range, with key resistance levels identified at $5090-$5100 and support levels at $4980-$5000 [3][5] - Silver is in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with indications of a potential bearish trend, suggesting that long positions should be gradually exited after price increases [5][7] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday may lead to increased risks for domestic gold and silver products, prompting recommendations to avoid positions during the extended market closure [7]

Market Overview - Concerns about the US dollar's outlook have resurfaced, leading to a decline in the dollar index, which fell below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest level since February 2022 [1] - The precious metals market experienced a strong rebound, with international gold prices rising over 2% to reclaim the $5000 mark [1] Precious Metals Pricing - On February 10, gold prices fluctuated, with spot gold briefly dropping below $5000 before rebounding [1] - The current price of gold in the London market is approximately $5037.240 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [2] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Despite a significant drop in late January, the prevailing market sentiment suggests that the sell-off was more of a technical adjustment rather than driven by fundamental factors [3] - Analysts from various institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for precious metals, citing ongoing uncertainties in the market and the demand for asset diversification [6][7] Price Adjustments and Consumer Impact - Chow Tai Fook is expected to adjust its gold product prices post-Spring Festival, with anticipated increases of 15% to 30% for certain products, particularly "fixed-price" items [3] - The price of gold jewelry from major domestic brands is nearing 1600 yuan per gram, with notable increases reported from brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao [5] Investment Trends - The issuance of gold-related financial products has significantly accelerated since the beginning of 2025, with 11 new products launched in 2026, marking a substantial increase compared to the previous year [5] - Analysts recommend a long-term asset allocation strategy for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding the complexities of products with embedded derivatives [5] Central Bank Activities - Central banks have increased their gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with China's reserves rising to 7.419 million ounces by the end of January 2026, up from 7.415 million ounces in December 2025 [7] - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks is viewed as a strategy to enhance the credibility of sovereign currencies and support the internationalization of the renminbi [8]