Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rise in the precious metals sector, with spot gold surpassing $4040 per ounce and a notable increase in gold and silver ETFs [1][2] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces at the end of October, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - Weak economic indicators from the U.S., including a surge in layoffs and declining consumer confidence, have heightened the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold ETF holdings in China saw an increase of 79.02 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 164.03% [2] - State Street Global Advisors raised its most optimistic gold price forecast to $4100-$4500 per ounce, suggesting that despite potential overbought conditions, gold remains underrepresented in investment portfolios [2] - The gold stock ETF (159562) rose by 1.92%, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.87%, with the latter attracting a net inflow of 2.3 billion yuan over the past 20 days [3]

市场对2025版中国龙银币的需求变化将对其价格产生显著影响。随着收藏热潮的兴起，越来越多的投资者和收藏者将目光投向这一银币。结合目前的贵金属 市场形势，2025版中国龙银币作为新发行的纪念币，预计会吸引大量权威用户和投资者。 在这个过程中，消费者可借助搜钱小程序进行实时行情查询，获取包括价格波动、市场动态等信息，无需下载，即可通过手机实现智能盯盘提醒和高清发帖 服务。此外，市场对龙银币的追捧不仅源于其独特设计，亦与黄金和白银价格的波动密切相关。投资者在判断龙银币价格走势时，应关注全球经济变化及市 场需求，以便在合适时机进行投资决策。 怕买贵? 怕卖亏? 『一段励导』 实时成交一览无余, 资深币商都在用的主动工具! 在接下来的文章中，我们将深入探讨2025版中国龙银币的发行计划及其市场热度。该银币的发行时间和数量将受到广泛关注，预计将在年初公布。随着市场 需求的变化，银币的价格必然受到影响。我们还将分析投资者如何抓住这个收藏机会，以及如何评估该银币在贵金属市场中的潜力。同时，借助一尘网提供 的实时行情查询、智能盯盘提醒及手机高清发帖服务，用户无需下载即可方便地掌握市场动态。针对信息检索，用户可以自定义时间范围、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, affected by the performance of precious metal prices, the prices of platinum - group metals generally showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The price of the NYMEX platinum main contract fell 7.01% to $1,538 per ounce this month, while the price of the NYMEX palladium main contract rose slightly by 0.36% to $1,389 per ounce. The price performance of platinum - group metals is significantly affected by the prices of gold and silver and shows greater price fluctuations [9][21][22]. - From a macro perspective, the Fed's "hawkish rate cut" in the October meeting and Powell's remarks on future rate - cut expectations have put significant pressure on the prices of gold and silver, causing them to enter a consolidation range. The price performance of platinum - group metals is also relatively weak. However, the platinum and palladium lease rates are currently at the highest levels in the same period in recent years, indicating that the overseas platinum - group metal spot market remains tight. The probability of a sharp decline in platinum - group metal prices in the short term is low, and platinum jewelry demand is supported by the high - price gold. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after a new round of macro - driving forces are formed and the prices of gold and silver show strong performance [9]. - Technically, the NYMEX platinum main contract price is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation pattern, while the NYMEX palladium main contract price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation pattern [12][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract decreased by 2.16% week - on - week and 7.01% month - on - month to $1,538 per ounce. The five - day average trading volume decreased by 11.55% week - on - week and 34.37% month - on - month. The position of the main contract increased by 0.47% week - on - week but decreased by 16.89% month - on - month. The NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 2.51% week - on - week but decreased by 2.05% month - on - month. The CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 3,638 hands, and the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1,178 hands. The platinum ETF position decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [9]. - **Price Data for Palladium**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month to $1,389 per ounce. The five - day average trading volume increased by 65.23% week - on - week but decreased by 27.22% month - on - month. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.27% week - on - week and 27.42% month - on - month. The NYMEX palladium inventory decreased by 2.38% week - on - week and 2.36% month - on - month. The CFTC managed - fund net short position decreased by 15 hands, and the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 216 hands. The palladium ETF position increased by 0.07% week - on - week [9]. - **Macro and Market Analysis**: The Fed's "hawkish rate cut" and Powell's remarks on inflation and future rate - cut expectations have led to a decline in the expectation of loose monetary policy, putting pressure on the prices of gold and silver and platinum - group metals. However, high lease rates indicate tight overseas spot markets, and platinum jewelry demand is supported by high - price gold [9]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The price of the NYMEX platinum main contract fell 7.01% to $1,538 per ounce this month, and the total position as of September 23 was 97,978 hands. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 413.79 yuan per gram as of November 6, and the domestic platinum premium significantly rebounded due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy [21][25]. - **Palladium Price**: The price of the NYMEX palladium main contract rose slightly by 0.36% to $1,389 per ounce, and the total position as of the latest report period was 20,282 hands [22]. - **Lease Rates**: As of November 6, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum was 21.78%, and for palladium was 11.15%, remaining at relatively high levels [29]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of September 23, the NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased to 18,285 hands, and the NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 5,176 hands [32][35]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Position Changes - **Platinum ETF Position**: As of November 6, the total position of the platinum ETF was 76.07 tons [46]. - **Palladium ETF Position**: As of November 6, the total position of the palladium ETF was 14.78 tons [49]. - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of November 6, the CME platinum inventory was 20.54 tons [53]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory as of November 6 was 5,520.72 kilograms [58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production forecast of the top 15 global mines shows that the platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a certain contraction expectation in the mine - end supply of platinum this year [64]. - **Palladium Supply**: The production data of the top 15 global palladium mines show that the total production of the top 15 mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be 41.36 tons. The annual production in 2025 will be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024, showing a slight contraction in the palladium mine - end supply [67]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in September were 10.7 tons, showing a rebound from August. China's palladium imports in September were 6.5 tons, showing a significant increase from August [70][74]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Data on the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum are presented, showing price differences over different contract periods [90][91]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Data on the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium are presented, showing price differences over different contract periods [103][99]. - **London - NYMEX Spread**: Data on the price differences between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, as well as between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price, are presented [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Core Logic - In the short - term, although the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, risks such as geopolitical changes and the US government shutdown still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is slowing down [1]. - The results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. The US Supreme Court questions the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs, focusing on whether the authorization of the "Emergency State Law" has been abused [1]. - The path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. ADP employment data shows that the overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth has been stagnant, adding uncertainty to whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in December. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction as of December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain at around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [1][3][7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3990.40 per ounce, up $49.10 (1.25%) from the previous day and up $48.70 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London gold is $3968.20 per ounce, up $17.10 (0.43%) from the previous day and down $38.50 (- 0.96%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 917.80 yuan per gram, up 5.54 yuan (0.61%) from the previous day and up 5.64 yuan (0.62%) from last week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 917.51 yuan per gram, up 7.98 yuan (0.88%) from the previous day and up 10.23 yuan (1.13%) from last week [2]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETFs are also provided [2]. Silver Core Logic - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $47.86 per ounce, up $0.96 (2.06%) from the previous day and up $0.59 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London silver is $47.61 per ounce, down $0.15 (- 0.31%) from the previous day and down $0.56 (- 1.17%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 11427.00 yuan per kilogram, up 151.00 yuan (1.34%) from the previous day and up 174.00 yuan (1.55%) from last week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 11421.00 yuan per kilogram, up 181.00 yuan (1.61%) from the previous day and up 224.00 yuan (2.00%) from last week [7]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETFs are also provided [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, the Fed's total assets are $66371.78 billion, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49% [9]. - US Treasury bonds and dollar: The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 2.43%, the US dollar index is 100.16, and various US Treasury bond spreads and interest rate differentials are also provided [9][10]. - US economy: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, the unemployment rate is 4.30%, and other economic data such as employment, consumption, industry, and real estate are also provided [9][10]. - Central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also provided [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Despite better-than-expected US small non - farm ADP data and ISM non - manufacturing data, precious metal prices remained in the previous consolidation range due to multiple risk factors. Uncertainties include the record - breaking US government shutdown and the Supreme Court's debate on the legality of Trump - era tariffs. It is expected that precious metals will continue the adjustment trend in the future [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals fluctuated higher during the day. London gold stood back at the $4000 mark, trading at $4006, and London silver traded around the $48.5 mark. Driven by the external market, Shanghai gold closed up 0.79% at 917.8 yuan/gram, while the main Shanghai silver contract closed down 1.99% at 11427 yuan/kilogram [3] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 - dollar mark, trading around 99.99 [4] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly, trading around 4.136% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, trading around 7.1224 [6] Important Information - US government dynamics: The US Supreme Court's debate on a tariff case opened, and the probability of Trump winning decreased. Trump's request to end the "lengthy debate" was rejected. Two Democratic leaders wrote to Trump for face - to - face negotiations, but Trump insisted on not negotiating until Democrats voted to restart the government. The shutdown will cut the capacity of 40 major US airports by 10% [7] - US macro data: The US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50. The US October ADP employment was 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, expected 28,000, and the previous value was - 32,000 [7] - Fed observation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 19.4% [7] Logic Analysis - Due to multiple risk factors such as the government shutdown and the tariff case, precious metals are in a pattern with both upward pressure and downward support, and are expected to continue the adjustment trend [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Mainly operate with a band - trading mindset [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratios, ETF holdings, futures trading volumes, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, with data sources from Flush iFinD and Galaxy Futures [16][19][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is supported by safe - haven demand and rebounds. The US government shutdown, potential economic slowdown, and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices, but the strengthening of the US dollar and long - term interest rates pose potential suppression. The market may continue to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to use an interval band trading strategy. The recommended trading intervals are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract and 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 917.8 yuan/gram, up 5.54 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11,427 yuan/kilogram, up 151 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 137,883 lots, down 3,545 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 245,863 lots, up 1,589 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai Gold main contract are 104,020 lots, up 2,015 lots; those of the Shanghai Silver main contract are 98,371 lots, up 2,070 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 87,816 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 639,940 kilograms, down 16,230 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 913.8 yuan/gram, up 6.31 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11,323 yuan/kilogram, up 164 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4 yuan/gram, up 0.77 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 104 yuan/kilogram, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings are 1,038.63 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 15,150.71 tons, down 16.93 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 36.02%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.9%, up 0.05% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 22.92%, down 2.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.92%, down 2.1% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US federal government shutdown has entered the 36th day, which may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irreparable [2]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding the expected 30,000, but the overall labor demand is still slowing down, adding uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate decision [2]. - The US 10 - month ISM services PMI rose 2.4 points to 52.4, reaching an eight - month high, while the manufacturing PMI is still under pressure [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated as cautiously bullish [9][10] - For arbitrage, the strategy is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - For options, the strategy is to hold off [10] Core View - The U.S. economic data is warming up, and precious metals continue to fluctuate. The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken, but the logic of gold as a substitute for U.S. dollar assets remains valid in the medium to long term. Both gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [2][9][10] Market Analysis - In the U.S., the ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, far exceeding the expected 30,000, and the previous month's data was revised to a decrease of 29,000. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth remains stagnant. The ISM services PMI in October rose 2.4 points to 52.4, reaching an eight - month high [2] - In the Eurozone, the final services PMI in October was 53%, better than the preliminary value of 52.6%, pushing the composite PMI to 52.5, the highest since May 2023. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's service industry contracted for 14 consecutive months [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 915.42 yuan/gram, closed at 912.26 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 916.38 yuan/gram, up 0.45% from the afternoon close [3] - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,230 yuan/kg, closed at 11,276 yuan/kg, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 805,726 lots, and the open interest was 244,274 lots. The night - session closed at 11,381 yuan/kg, up 0.93% from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 5, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.159%, up 7.78 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.534%, up 2.21 BP from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On November 5, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long position decreased by 1,632 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 339 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 463,600 lots, a change of 2.10% from the previous trading day [5] - In the Ag2512 contract, the long position decreased by 8,927 lots, and the short position decreased by 10,617 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,390,882 lots, a change of 2.82% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.63 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,168 tons, a decrease of 22 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 5, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 805.96 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 80.90, a change of - 0.70% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.60, a change of 2.10% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,552 kg, a change of - 7.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 508,790 kg, a change of - 22.85% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [8] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, the Au2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 yuan/gram - 950 yuan/gram [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, the Ag2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,100 yuan/kg - 11,600 yuan/kg [10] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: Hold off [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. It is advisable to look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those holding long positions should continue to hold them cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4050 - 4100, support is 3900, and strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, support is 47.5, and strong support is 45.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metals prices rebounded slightly but remained in a narrow - range oscillation, reversing Tuesday's pattern. The US dollar index oscillated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, the US stock market rebounded, the European stock market rose, Bitcoin rebounded, crude oil prices fell, and the Southern China Non - ferrous Metals Index oscillated at a low level. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73%. The US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025 and higher than the expected 28,000. The September total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a decrease of 32,000. After the data, precious metals briefly declined and then returned to an upward trend. The US October ISM services PMI rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 37.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.5%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.4%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 17.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 45.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6.4%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.63 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 16.93 tons to 15150.71 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.4 tons to 656.2 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report at 20:00 on Thursday. FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech at 00:00 on Friday; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker will speak at the New York Economic Club at 01:00; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak at 05:30; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will have a fireside chat on monetary policy at 06:30; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the European Central Bank Money Market Conference at 16:00 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Price Table - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main - continuous contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings [13] 3.6 Stock - Bond - Commodity Overview - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, and 10Y US real interest rate [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, experience high - level volatility in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the risk of the trade war has eased after the China - US talks; the US employment has weakened and inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US will cancel the so - called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. In terms of the monetary attribute, the path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index fluctuates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3941.30 per ounce, down $251.80 (-6.01%) from the previous day and down $26.80 (-0.68%) from the previous week. The London gold price is $3951.10 per ounce, down $74.15 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $2.60 (0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 912.26 yuan per gram, down 3.32 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and up 1.38 yuan (0.15%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 915.68 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.26 yuan (0.36%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. [2] Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $46.90 per ounce, down $4.08 (-7.99%) from the previous day and down $0.24 (-0.52%) from the previous week. The London silver price is $47.76 per ounce, down $1.02 (-2.08%) from the previous day and up $1.32 (2.84%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11276 yuan per kilogram, up 38 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and down 62 yuan (-0.55%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11242 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and down 109 yuan (-0.96%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. [5] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 66371.78 billion US dollars, down 32.35 billion US dollars (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous value [7]. - **Other Key Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.37, up 0.01 (0.42%) from the previous day and up 0.12 (5.33%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 100.21, up 0.33 (0.34%) from the previous day and up 1.48 (1.50%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.04 (-9.76%) from the previous week; there are also data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, etc. [7][9][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided, such as the probability of the federal funds rate being in the range of 375 - 400 basis points at the December 10, 2025 meeting is 74.1%, and the probability of being in the range of 400 - 425 basis points is 25.9% [12].

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have generally rebounded, with notable increases in share prices for several companies, driven by a recent rise in spot gold prices and market expectations regarding U.S. government operations and labor data [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Silver Group (00815) increased by 3.45%, closing at 0.6 HKD [1] - China Gold International (02099) rose by 2.83%, closing at 127.2 HKD [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a 2.13% increase, closing at 30.66 HKD [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) gained 1.87%, closing at 28.36 HKD [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 1.28%, closing at 31.56 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - On November 5, spot gold rebounded from a low, briefly surpassing 3970 USD/ounce [1] - CITIC Futures noted a continued fluctuation in precious metals due to declining global risk asset sentiment [1] - UBS analysts indicated that the current pullback in the gold market is temporary, with potential for gold prices to reach 4200 USD/ounce, and in optimistic scenarios, even 4700 USD/ounce if geopolitical or market risks escalate [1]