| 贵金属日评20250725: 美国初请失业金仍属低于前值,欧洲央行7月暂停降息等待关税 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-18 | 收盘价 | 778.74 | 1.72 | 792. 90 | 777.02 | -14.16 | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 221277.00 | 44, 422. 00 | 286795.00 | 109, 940. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 11, 169.00 | 213456.00 | 222387.00 | 202287.00 | -8, 931. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358.00 | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 501.00 | 501.00 | 上海黄金 | ...

| 贵金属日评20250724:欧盟持续加码对美国关税报复,关注欧洲央行7月利率决议 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-22 | 2025-07-17 | 收盘价 | 792. 90 | 784. 84 | 776. 28 | 8.06 | 16. 62 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 375362.00 | 286795.00 | -88, 567.00 | 215395.00 | 71, 400. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 222387.00 | 216722.00 | 203084.00 | 5. 665. 00 | 19, 303. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 28872.00 | -15.00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

Group 1: Platinum Market Insights - The surface inventory of platinum is only 100 tons, and it is expected to be depleted by 2028, leading to a strong price recovery due to tightening supply and demand dynamics [2][3] - Since 2011, platinum prices have been in a downward trend, but recent increases in jewelry and investment demand, along with a recovery in automotive demand, suggest a potential upward cycle for prices and consumption [2][4] - Key domestic downstream companies to watch include specific listed firms, while overseas mining producers are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][4] Group 2: 3D Printing Market Opportunities - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is projected to reach $7.1 billion by 2028, driven by AI empowerment and supply chain cost reductions [6] - Consumer-grade 3D printers are designed for individual users and small businesses, with applications in various sectors such as consumer goods, education, and cultural creativity [6][8] - Investment opportunities in core components and materials for 3D printing are emphasized, with specific companies recommended for attention in the hardware, scanning, and materials sectors [7][9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, and the restructuring of the international trade - currency system will support the long - term bull market of gold. The economic growth slowdown and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios mean increased price volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the implementation of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [6]. - In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next round of breakthrough and upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's government pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, causing the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields to decline significantly, which boosted the price of precious metals with strong financial attributes. London gold rebounded close to $3440 per ounce. However, the information about the US reaching trade agreements with the Philippines and Japan in the Asian session on the 23rd weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values for July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating within the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high geopolitical risks continue to support the price. It is expected that in the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 794.01, up 1.04%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9500, up 1.05%; the Gold T + D closed at 788.11, up 1.04%; the Silver T + D closed at 9475, up 1.14% [5]. II. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary, Bezant, will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement reached on August 12 to avoid a significant tariff increase. China's embassy in the US said that the implementation details of the trade consensus reached by Trump and Xi Jinping have been finalized [18]. - US President Trump said that a large - scale deal has been reached with Japan, and Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and invest $550 billion in the US as required. The EU's trade commissioner said that the upcoming China - EU summit is an opportunity to discuss key trade and investment issues [18]. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that he is a fool for keeping interest rates too high and that Powell will step down in eight months. Trump believes that the policy interest rate should be 3 percentage points lower than the current level. Bezant said that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately and that Powell should adjust the scale of the Fed's non - monetary policy functions as a legacy of his tenure [18].

1. Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3413.55 with a change of 3.70 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 39.32 with a change of 0.48 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1448.00 with a change of -6.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1271.00 with a change of -1.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 65.25 with a change of -0.06 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 9876.00 with a change of 13.50 [1] 2. Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is not available with no change [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1188.48 with a change of -10.57 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 954.80 with no change [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15207.82 with a change of 49.45 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1327.23 with no change [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of -1.00 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [2] 3. Other Information - The data sources of the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver is emerging as a strong investment alternative to gold due to its lower price and significant price increase potential, making it attractive for ordinary investors [1][3][7] - Silver prices have recently surged, with current spot prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, and predictions suggest prices could reach 8 to 10 yuan per gram within the year [3][5] - The historical price ratio between gold and silver indicates that silver could see substantial growth, as gold prices have surpassed 800 yuan per gram, making silver's potential price increase more feasible [3][5] Group 2 - The value of silver is increasing due to its transformation from a secondary precious metal to a primary industrial metal, driven by rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [5][7] - The fundamental change in supply and demand dynamics for silver, driven by real economic needs rather than speculative trading, suggests a more sustainable price increase [5][7] - Investors are advised to consider silver as a viable investment option, especially as gold prices are at high levels and may experience limited growth, while silver remains undervalued and has lower entry barriers [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals market in 2025 is experiencing unprecedented heat, with silver prices reaching a 14-year high of over $39 per ounce, marking a 33% increase year-to-date, while gold has risen by 27% in the same period [1][3] - As of July 23, 2025, the London gold spot price is reported at $3425.45 per ounce, with Shanghai gold futures exceeding 792 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 20% [3] - The World Gold Council reported a net inflow of 552 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, a 170% year-on-year increase, with several domestic gold ETFs ranking among the top ten globally [3] Group 2 - The surge in demand for safe-haven assets is driven by geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-globalization, leading to increased allocations in gold among wealthy individuals, with the proportion rising from 5% in 2024 to 11% in 2025 [4] - Industrial demand for silver is on the rise, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with an expected global solar installation capacity exceeding 600 GW in 2025, consuming over 670 million ounces of silver [4] - Retail participation in gold investments is increasing, with domestic gold ETFs showing over a 20% increase year-to-date, and platforms like Alipay attracting many new investors [4] Group 3 - Despite the market's enthusiasm, institutional views are divided, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3215 per ounce, while Macquarie remains cautious, predicting silver prices to average around $36 per ounce in Q3 2025 [5] - Experts generally agree on a long-term upward trend for precious metals, with expectations of significant price movements in the second half of 2025 due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing trends [5] - The World Bank emphasizes that rising geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases will support precious metal assets in 2025-2026 [5] Group 4 - Regulatory compliance is becoming a focal point for investors, with five ministries in China issuing guidelines to strengthen management of gold trading platforms, ensuring traceability and data integrity [7] - Compliance platforms like Gold盛贵金属 are implementing strict transaction protocols and real-time verification systems to enhance investor confidence [7] Group 5 - For novice investors, it is recommended to use simulation accounts to familiarize themselves with trading indicators and to control risks effectively during live trading [8] - Advanced strategies suggest combining macro hedging with event-driven tactics, such as pre-setting orders based on central bank announcements to capture short-term price movements [8] - Risk management strategies include a "core + satellite" approach, maintaining a long-term holding while dynamically adjusting positions based on market conditions [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The non - response from Fed Chair Powell to the accusations from the Trump team and the statements from Fed Governor Bowman suggest that even if Powell completes his remaining term, Fed monetary policy will gradually turn dovish under Trump's strong intervention, which is a significant positive factor for international silver prices. The current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a long - position mindset. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.91% to 792.94 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.75% to 9453.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.06% to 3441.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.28% to 39.67 dollars/ounce. Other precious metals prices also showed various changes, such as Au(T + D) rising 0.39% to 780.00 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) rising 1.54% to 9368.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.35%, the dollar index was 97.39. Stock indices like the Dow Jones Index rose 0.40%, the S&P 500 rose 0.06%, while the Nasdaq Index fell 0.39% [2]. Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - **Gold**: In multiple markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.), gold prices, trading volumes, and open interests generally showed an upward trend. For example, COMEX gold's closing price rose 0.99%, trading volume rose 17.61%, and open interest rose 1.22% [6]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices, trading volumes, and open interests in different markets mostly increased. For instance, COMEX silver's closing price rose 1.07%, trading volume rose 40.57% in SHFE, and open interest rose 5.33% in COMEX [6]. Market Outlook - The situation regarding the accusations against the Trump team and the Fed's stance on independence and monetary policy is driving the strong performance of precious metals prices. The Fed's potential shift to a dovish monetary policy is expected to benefit international silver prices [2][3]. Charts and Data Analysis - There are numerous charts showing the relationships between precious metals prices and various factors such as the dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, open interests, and near - far month structures. These charts help in analyzing the market trends and price movements of precious metals [8][11][16]. - The report also provides data on the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences, which are important for understanding the cross - market price relationships of precious metals [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, as reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, the game between economies has intensified, and market concerns have resurfaced. Trump's efforts to pressure Powell continue, which on one hand intensifies market unease and on the other hand loosens the expectation that the Fed will maintain high - interest rates. Under factors such as safe - haven demand and improved liquidity expectations, precious metals have risen strongly. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, precious metals consolidated horizontally and gave back some of yesterday's gains. London gold is trading around $3389, and London silver is around $38.9. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.64% at 784.84 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.56% at 9393 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around 97.865 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly and is currently trading around 4.39% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate continued to consolidate at a high level and is currently trading around 7.175 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: The EU is exploring broader potential counter - measures against US tariffs, with negotiation as the priority; US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality transactions; 19% of US tariffs on Indonesia may take effect before August 1st [7] - Fed turmoil: US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury; the Fed added a video tour of the headquarters renovation project on its website [7] - Fed observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2% [7] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariff implementation, market concerns have increased. Trump's pressure on the Fed has made the expectation of continuous high - interest rates waver. Precious metals have risen strongly due to safe - haven and liquidity expectations. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may cause inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [8][9][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider continuing to hold long positions [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - Dollar index and precious metals trends: Presented the trends of the dollar index against London gold and London silver [15][16] - Real yields and precious metals trends: Showed the trends of real yields against London gold and London silver [17][18][21] - Domestic and foreign futures trends: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [20][22] - Futures - spot trends: Presented the trends of gold and silver futures - spot differences [24][25] - Domestic - foreign price differences: Showed the domestic - foreign price differences of gold and silver [28][30] - Gold - silver ratio: Presented the gold - silver ratios of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [36][37] - ETF holdings: Displayed the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [39][40] - Futures positions: Showed the futures positions of gold and silver [41][42] - Futures inventories: Presented the futures inventories of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [43][45] - Trading volumes: Showed the trading volumes of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [46][47] - TD data: Included gold and silver TD deferred fees, and the delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][57] - Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates: Presented the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [55]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metal prices are influenced by market sentiment driven by tariff policies, with gold and silver showing mixed performance amid ongoing uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Precious metal prices have shown slight divergence, with gold experiencing repeated fluctuations and silver showing a slight upward trend, primarily due to strong commodity prices [1]. - The London gold price has been oscillating between $3100 and $3500 per ounce since late April, with reduced demand for gold as a safe haven due to the cooling international trade situation and U.S. fiscal expansion [2]. - The U.S. dollar's recent decline has supported gold prices, with New York gold surpassing the $3400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Standard Chartered Bank noted that the net long positions in gold have remained around 31%, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which support gold demand [3]. - Kitco Metals highlighted that the recent strong performance of gold was catalyzed by a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, creating an ideal environment for gold price increases [4]. - Concerns over rising U.S. debt continue to bolster interest in gold, as it is seen as a hedge against uncertainty in the current market conditions [3][4].