Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the European Union (EU) and China regarding rare earth exports, highlighting China's strategic response to EU's demands and the implications for both parties in the context of global trade dynamics [1][3][11]. Group 1: EU's Position and Strategy - The EU relies heavily on China's rare earth elements for its green transition, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, semiconductor manufacturing, and military equipment, yet it is reluctant to pay the necessary price for these resources [5][11]. - Despite needing Chinese rare earths, the EU has attempted to impose trade barriers and investigations against Chinese companies, reflecting a contradictory stance [5][9]. Group 2: China's Response - In response to the EU's ultimatum for a 30-day deadline to lift export controls, China announced a five-year tariff increase on certain goods imported from the EU, signaling a calculated long-term strategy rather than a hasty reaction [9][13]. - China's approach emphasizes reciprocity in trade relations, indicating a shift in power dynamics where it will no longer be easily pressured by threats [9][11]. Group 3: Implications for Manufacturing and Trade - The EU's manufacturing sector is facing panic as the lack of rare earths threatens to halt production lines for electric vehicles and renewable energy equipment, showcasing the interdependence between the two economies [13]. - While EU-China trade has seen a decline, China's trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road Initiative countries is on the rise, indicating a diversification of trade partnerships that could lessen reliance on the EU [13]. Group 4: Broader Insights - The current trade dispute is not merely about resources but represents a broader struggle for influence and respect in international relations, with China asserting its newfound strength and negotiating power [11][13]. - The situation serves as a reminder that strength and strategic positioning are crucial in global trade, as those who attempt to use intimidation may find themselves at a disadvantage [11][13].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on July 31, announcing new tariff rates for 69 trading partners, effective from August 7, which has raised concerns among multiple governments [1] - German Chancellor Merz stated that the current tariff agreement is "painful" for the entire European industry, and the EU aims to negotiate with the U.S. to avoid a full-blown trade dispute [1] - Swiss Federal President Keller-Zuterl expressed shock at the announced 39% tariff rate, emphasizing that it undermines a trade agreement reached earlier in July and could harm the global economy [3] Group 2 - Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad mentioned that despite some key export products receiving tariff exemptions, many unreasonable tariff measures remain, prompting Brazil to initiate trade negotiations with the U.S. [4] - South African President Ramaphosa committed to diplomatic efforts to protect national interests and is negotiating with the U.S. regarding a 30% tariff, while also developing support measures for affected businesses [5]

德国总理默茨：将与美国谈判钢铁出口配额 金十数据8月1日讯，德国总理默茨周五表示，欧盟将与美国就钢铁问题进行谈判，重点关注可在不征收 过高关税的情况下出口的配额。双方上个月达成了一项贸易协议，协议中，大多数产品的关税定为 15%，但某些行业的谈判仍在继续，其中包括钢铁和铝，这些产品的关税为50%。默茨表示，现在的任 务是制定"细节"。默茨称，该协议对整个欧洲工业来说都是"痛苦的"，但他表示欧盟还没有能力引发全 面的贸易争端。他说："那只会有输家，而最大的输家可能是我们欧洲人。" ...

【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从技术面来看，12月黄金期货多头仍拥有短期整体技术优势，但势头已减弱。多头的下一个上行目标是 收盘价突破关键阻力位——7月高点3509.00美元。空头的短期下行目标是推动期货价格跌破关键技术支 撑位3300.00美元。第一阻力位为周三高点3389.30美元，其次是3400.00美元；第一支撑位为本周低点 3319.20美元，其次是6月低点3307.40美元。 美国政府早前曾放出风声，扬言自8月1日起，凡未与美国签署贸易协定的国家均将面临高额关税制裁。 如今这一时间节点迫近，巴西与印度立场坚定，明确表态绝不向美方施压低头，誓将采取所有必要举措 捍卫本国利益。具体而言，美国已正式宣布，将从8月1日开始对源自巴西的商品加征高达50%的关税。 卢拉透露他曾主动联络美国总统特朗普，却未得到对方就关税议题展开对话的回应。卢拉强调，面对美 国的关税恫吓，巴西感受到的是"关切"而非"恐惧"。他斩钉截铁地表示，无论美国意图发起政治博弈还 是单纯讨论贸易事宜，巴西都将从容应对、奉陪到底，但坚决反对美国将政治因素掺杂进贸易争端之 中。 今日周五（8月1日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于769.22附近，截至 ...

IMF首席经济学家古兰沙：我们敦促各方解决贸易争端。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global trade situation is becoming increasingly complex as countries like South Korea, India, and Malaysia draw red lines in trade negotiations with the United States, while the U.S. responds quickly and mentions reaching a trade agreement with China [1][7]. Group 1: South Korea's Trade Negotiations - South Korea has firmly rejected further opening its beef and rice markets as negotiation leverage, emphasizing food safety and agricultural protection [3]. - In 2022, South Korea imported beef worth $2.22 billion from the U.S., and U.S. rice accounts for 32% of its total rice import quota [3]. - The U.S. has maintained a strong stance on agricultural market access, putting pressure on South Korea, especially as Japan has made concessions [3][4]. Group 2: India's Trade Stance - India has also taken a strong position in trade talks with the U.S., with key red lines being agriculture and dairy products [6]. - Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called for the removal of reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts, while seeking similar low tariff treatment as other U.S. trade partners [6]. - India retains the right to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, particularly concerning genetically modified products and strict feed regulations for dairy animals [6]. Group 3: Malaysia's Position - Malaysia has rejected U.S. demands regarding tax exemptions for electric vehicles and restrictions on foreign ownership in the power and financial sectors [6]. - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar has stated that these policies are crucial for the rights of the Malay and indigenous populations, showing a commitment to national policy independence [6]. Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has claimed that the U.S. is reaching a trade agreement with China, although the credibility of this statement is questioned [7]. - This assertion may serve multiple purposes, including pressuring countries yet to sign agreements with the U.S. and establishing a narrative that places the U.S. in a moral high ground during negotiations [7]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. faces setbacks in its trade negotiations with these five countries as they collectively establish red lines, diminishing U.S. negotiating power [9]. - Countries are adopting various strategies to counter U.S. trade pressures, with South Korea, India, and Malaysia maintaining firm stances on their agricultural policies and national interests [9]. - The future of global trade order will be shaped by the negotiations and collaborations among these nations, aiming for equitable solutions to foster a stable and open global trade environment [9].

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The G20 Development Ministers' meeting took place in Mpumalanga, South Africa, discussing issues such as enhancing social protection and combating illicit financial flows [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its interest rate cuts for the first time since June 2024, citing trade disputes as a major source of policy uncertainty [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with officials indicating that recent political events have minimal impact on the gradual rate hike stance [2] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark rate from 20% to 18%, aligning with market expectations while maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation targets are met [2] - The Central Bank of Turkey reduced its benchmark rate from 46% to 43%, marking the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle [2] Market Observations - PIMCO economists noted that despite President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, he is unlikely to replace Chairman Powell, instead using upcoming appointments to influence monetary policy [3] - Economists from ING highlighted that while Tokyo's inflation has eased, it remains high enough to support the Bank of Japan's consideration of policy normalization [4] - Analysts from Capital Economics pointed out that upcoming U.S. tariffs could introduce new uncertainties for the South African economy, which is already facing economic weakness [4] Upcoming Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates due to strong recent economic data, with market attention on Powell's statements following the rate decision [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has preliminarily determined that Oman is circumventing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on similar products from China by using hot-rolled steel produced in China to manufacture circular welded carbon steel pipes (CWP) [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The investigation began on November 19, 2024, focusing on circumvention activities across Oman, with Al Jazeera Steel Products Company SAOG identified as the mandatory respondent [3]. - The average anti-dumping duty rate for Chinese CWP is 85.55%, while the countervailing duty rate is as high as 198.49% [3]. - The U.S. has intensified scrutiny on imported steel products, particularly those processed through third countries to evade tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - In 2024, the U.S. imported approximately 50,000 tons of CWP from Oman, accounting for 2.5% of total imports, with Chinese hot-rolled steel remaining competitive in the global market due to price advantages [4]. - The preliminary ruling may lead to the imposition of tariffs on Omani CWP similar to those on Chinese products, potentially exceeding 200%, which would significantly raise export costs for Oman and affect its competitiveness in the U.S. market [5]. - U.S. domestic steel producers like Nucor and Steel Dynamics may benefit from this situation as their market share could increase [5]. Group 3: Broader Context - The global steel market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with low-priced steel from China entering the U.S. market through third countries, leading to ongoing trade disputes [5]. - Similar circumvention issues have been observed in global trade, with countries like Vietnam and Thailand also facing investigations by the U.S. [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on May 24, with an opening price of $3398.14 per ounce, a high of $3398.14, a low of $3351.38, and a closing price of $3372.53 [1] Economic Indicators - The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. in July recorded 49.5, below market expectations of 52.7 and down from the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for July was 55.2, exceeding expectations of 53 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the latest PMI data indicates a significant acceleration in the U.S. economy at the beginning of the third quarter, but the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. The manufacturing sector showed its first deterioration of the year, partly due to the fading impact of short-term purchases driven by tariff expectations [2] - Inflationary pressures are rising, with companies attributing cost and price increases to tariffs. The price increase for goods and services in July was one of the largest in the past three years, suggesting that consumer price inflation may exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [2] Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell engaged in a public dispute regarding the renovation costs of the Federal Reserve headquarters, with Trump claiming costs rose from $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion, while Powell disputed the accuracy of this data [3] - Nick Timiraos described Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve as a political performance aimed at increasing pressure on the Fed and tarnishing Powell's public image, while also pushing for interest rate cuts [5] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 95.9%, with a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 39.2%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 58.4% [7] European Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged and reiterated its data-dependent approach, emphasizing the resilience of the Eurozone economy [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the bank is in a "good position" and does not rule out considering interest rate hikes, although the global trade policy environment remains unstable, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation [6] - Lagarde highlighted that the risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside, and improvements in business confidence could stimulate private investment [6] Geopolitical Context - The U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Issues, Wittekopf, announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Doha ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, citing Hamas's lack of serious negotiation [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw an increase in holdings by 2.29 tons, bringing the total to 957.09 tons [6]