Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent drop to around 3320 before rebounding, indicating a potential resistance at 3345-47 and 3362 levels [1][3] - COMEX gold has seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at 3338.5 USD/oz, reflecting a drop of 1.04% [3] - The recent EU-US trade negotiations resulted in an agreement favoring the US, highlighting the EU's weakened position in global economic negotiations [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under bearish pressure, with prices trading below key moving averages, but there is potential for a rebound if support levels are tested [4] - Last week's gold market was influenced by fundamental factors, with a high of 3439.2 and a low of 3324.6, closing at 3336.5, forming a long upper shadow candlestick pattern [4] - Current support levels for gold are identified at 3324 or 3304 USD, while resistance levels are at 3340 or 3357 USD [5]

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易谈判取得进展，价格承压回调 2025/7/28 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 美国与多国贸易谈判结果落地，加征关税幅度基本低于 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 市场预期。市场 ...

从经济基本面来看，欧元区近期的数据已显露出企稳迹象。制造业 PMI 的边际改善、服务业的持续扩 张以及劳动力市场的相对稳定，共同构成了经济韧性的现实基础。在连续八次降息后，货币政策对经济 的刺激效果逐渐显现，此时暂停降息既是对前期政策效果的观察，也是避免过度宽松引发副作用的理性 选择。 不过，市场对于贸易谈判的乐观预期仍存在不确定性。15% 的关税水平虽较全面贸易战的情景更为温 和，但相较于此前的贸易条件仍属加税，长期来看仍会对部分行业造成压力。因此，欧洲央行的 "观 就在欧洲央行宣布政策的次日，高盛与摩根大通的研究报告相继出炉。高盛明确表示，不再预计欧洲央 行会在今年内实施降息；摩根大通则将此前预测的 9 月降息时间点推迟至 10 月。两家机构的调整方向 高度一致，反映出金融市场对欧元区货币政策宽松预期的显著降温。 欧洲央行行长拉加德在周四的新闻发布会上的表态，成为机构调整预期的重要参考。"我们正处于这种 观望等待的状况，" 她明确指出，同时补充说明当前经济处于 "良好的位置"。这一表述打破了市场此前 对持续宽松的惯性预期，凸显出欧洲央行对经济韧性的认可。 高盛的分析师在报告中解读道，拉加德的评论传递出清晰 ...

黄金市场本周波动剧烈，最终金价本周收盘下滑，金价在看涨突破后未能稳定在3400美元/盎司上方，技术 面前景凸显黄金多头近期的犹豫不决。本周前两个交易日，现货黄金价格累计大涨2.4%，但金价在本周后 三个交易日累计的跌幅达到近3%。主要因为特朗普贸易谈判方面传来积极进展，市场风险偏好情绪回升， 这打击了黄金的避险需求。 下周二周三美联储重磅来袭 黄金：3350附近做空，防守3360，目标看3325，破位下看3310一线！ 所谓一个靠谱的人，凡事有交代，件件有着落，事事有回音，兴言一直致力于市场，唯有坚持写出对投资 者有用的分析，少错一单，那么我相信日久见方能见人心！ 责任编辑：赵兴言 对于下周黄金走势的看法！ 黄金周五出乎所有人的预料，延续弱势下跌，触及我们上周说到的4小时趋势线3335一线之后直接下跌走 弱，那么对于目前的趋势上来看，趋势偏空无反弹，那么弱势就将还会持续，只有跌幅到一定的位置筑底 之后才会有买盘的进场，而下周则延续看空即可！ 小时线上多空的轮转比较明显，前三天还是走的上行趋势通道，而后两天直接回吐所以涨幅重新构筑了新 的下行通道出来，那么3350这个位置就是我们下周继续看空的关键点位，毕竟4小 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive days, increasing by 1.46% during the week ending July 25, 2025[10] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.1% due to trade agreement progress between the US and Japan[10] - The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.26% and 1.02%, respectively, during the same period[10] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, marking a decline for the sixth consecutive week, against an expected 226,000[4] - The probability of a US recession by 2025 is estimated at 17%, down from 18% the previous week[39] - The market anticipates a 64.5% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September, up from 52.9% a week prior[28] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices decreased by 0.61% and 0.55%, respectively, while WTI crude oil fell by 3.31%[11] - The market expects an increase in Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of sanctions, contributing to the decline in oil prices[10] Trade Agreements - The US reached a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan[33] - The Philippines will impose a 19% tariff on US goods while opening its market to zero tariffs for US products[33] - Ongoing trade negotiations with the EU could lead to a counter-tariff on $93 billion worth of US goods if talks fail[33]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - The third round of China-US trade negotiations will be held in Sweden, and the market should closely monitor the progress of these talks. The negotiations aim to postpone the scheduled tariff increase deadline of August 12, reflecting a pragmatic willingness from both sides to manage differences. The advancement of core tariff issues is a key support for current market sentiment, and a cautiously optimistic outlook is maintained for the prospects of a phased agreement [2][24]. - In July, 134 game licenses were issued, including 127 domestic games and 7 imported games, such as NetEase's "Diablo IV." The normalization of license issuance continues to support the healthy development of the industry, with major companies introducing significant IPs alongside original high-quality products, optimizing the supply structure and further releasing market vitality [2][24]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the week of July 21-25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.69%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.76%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.86%, and the Hang Seng Internet Index increased by 2.27%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.41 percentage points. The SW Media Index rose by 2.15%, lagging behind the ChiNext Index by 0.61 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 industries [1][11]. Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week were "The Lychee of Chang'an" with a box office of 170.914 million yuan (25.6% market share), "Nanjing Photo Studio" with 152.25 million yuan (22.8%), and "The Legend of Lu Xiaobei 2" with 94.343 million yuan (14.2%) [27][28]. Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by sales were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Love and Deep Space." The top three Android games by popularity were "Heart Town," "My Leisure Time," and "Staff Sword Legend" [30][31]. TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index were "Drug Storm," "Morning Snow," and "Cherry Amber," with indices of 83.5, 82.9, and 80.8 respectively [33][34]. Variety Shows and Animation - The top variety show was "Running Man Season 9," followed by "Comedy King Stand-up Season 2" and "Talk Show and His Friends Season 2." The top three animated shows by viewership index were "Cang Yuan Tu," "Happy Hammer," and "Cloud Deep Not Knowing Dream" [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have risen slightly, driven by optimistic sentiment regarding trade negotiations, overshadowing expectations of increased supply from Venezuela [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Analysts from ING indicate that negotiations with the EU appear to be progressing in the right direction, which should help reduce uncertainty and alleviate ongoing demand concerns in the oil market [1] Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Supply - President Trump has approved Chevron (CVX.N) to resume oil extraction operations in Venezuela, which is expected to increase the country's oil export volume by over 200,000 barrels per day [1] - This increase in Venezuelan oil exports may help ease some supply tightness in the heavy crude oil market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has no compelling reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy faces significant setbacks, as stated by Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Kazaks emphasized that maintaining the current interest rate is sensible, indicating that the era of impulsive rate changes is over [1]. - The current deposit rate is at 2%, which is seen as neutral, neither suppressing nor stimulating economic activity [3]. Economic Outlook - Kazaks noted that there is still substantial monetary easing yet to impact the economy, following a year of significant rate cuts [2]. - The ECB's recent decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged reflects a cautious approach while awaiting clarity on U.S. trade negotiations [1]. Trade and Currency Considerations - Kazaks plans to monitor trade negotiations, service sector inflation, manufacturing recovery, and exchange rate issues closely [4]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns about export prices and import costs [4]. - Kazaks warned that if the euro rises above 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the economic situation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts again [4]. Future Actions - Kazaks advised patience in assessing the outcomes of trade agreements before making policy decisions, highlighting the need to avoid actions based on speculation [4]. - He mentioned that resolving trade disputes could enhance confidence, supporting investment and consumption, thereby mitigating negative impacts from tariffs [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US stock market has recently performed strongly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices frequently reaching historical highs, driven by positive trade negotiations and increased capital expenditures from AI technology leaders [5][6] - As of July 24, the S&P 500 index has risen by 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 index by 1.7% over the past ten trading days, with the technology and internet sectors leading the performance [5][6] Trade Negotiations - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, and a significant agreement with Japan, which includes reducing tariffs on Japanese goods from 25% to 15% [5][8] - The market is optimistic about the potential for further trade agreements with the EU before the August 1 deadline, which has increased risk appetite among investors [9] Earnings Performance - The earnings season has shown resilience, with over half of the 162 S&P 500 companies reporting results that exceeded market expectations; 84.6% of companies reported net profits above Wall Street's forecasts [11] - Google’s parent company, Alphabet, reported strong second-quarter results, with revenue and EPS surpassing expectations, and announced a significant increase in capital expenditures to $85 billion for 2025, up from an earlier estimate of $75 billion [11][14] Market Outlook - The report suggests a short-term upward trend for the US stock market, particularly in AI technology sectors, as companies maintain resilience despite potential inflationary pressures and the impact of tariffs [15] - If the effects of tariffs are limited, the Federal Reserve may consider further interest rate cuts, providing additional support for the stock market [15]

摘要今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3357.70美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3359.85美元/盎司，跌幅0.24%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3357.70美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看空走势。 今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3357.70美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3359.85美元/盎司，跌幅0.24%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3357.70美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看空走势。 回顾欧央行于7月24日召开的会议，其决定维持三项关键利率不变。该行明确指出，若要在9月会议上采 取降息举措，面临的门槛相对较高。除非经济形势出现明显放缓且风险进一步加剧，否则理事会大概率 将继续维持现有利率水平。 市场曾流传有关美国与欧盟贸易谈判取得突破性进展的消息，但白宫方面迅速予以否认，称此类说法纯 属猜测。此前，据报道曾披露一则重要信息：在特朗普发出拟征收30%关税的信函后，欧盟或考虑同意 双方相互加征关税，且该关税措施预计于8月1日正式生效。 从利率市场预期来看，美联储在7月30日召开的会议上极有可能维持当前利 ...