有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/15 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 93630 11919 7.73 三月 94170 11898 7.89 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.01 -1469.82 现货出口 1046.05 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23690 3283 7.22 三月 23635 3192 5.36 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.42 -3937.82 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22050 2863 7.70 三月 22170 2896 7.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.30 -1719.93 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 118200 14444 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.11 -1091.76 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/15 | 国内价格 | | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡反弹 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：震荡反弹 供应 • 本周(20251205-1211)中国甲醇产量为2039705吨，较上周增加16240吨，装置产能利用率为89.81%，环比涨0.81%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于 检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量205.54万吨左右，产能利用率90.50%左右， 较本期上涨。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 烯烃：联泓格润MTO装置投产负荷陆续提升，不过叠加前期停车检修装置，行业周均开工仍有降低。 • 传统下游：二甲醚下周，心连心装置存停车预期，其他装置暂无停开车预期，预计 ...

Core Insights - Hedge funds are expanding their operations into physical commodities such as electricity, natural gas, and crude oil to seek new sources of returns in a complex market [1] - This shift is inspired by traditional trading giants and hedge funds that profited significantly during the energy price volatility in 2022 [1] - By acquiring transportation rights for natural gas pipelines and leasing crude oil storage facilities, hedge funds aim to capture real supply and demand signals outside of financial markets [1] Group 1: Unique Advantages of Physical Trading - The primary goal of hedge funds entering the physical commodity space is to gain access to valuable information, described as an "information gold rush" by Gallo Partners' CIO [2] - The physical electricity market is seen as an optimal entry point for hedge funds, allowing them to leverage advanced analytics to predict demand fluctuations [2] - Direct participation in physical trading provides greater flexibility in price management, enabling funds to store commodities during price declines and sell during recoveries, akin to oil storage operations [2] Group 2: Major Players and Expansion Strategies - Hedge funds are rapidly building physical trading capabilities through acquisitions and talent recruitment [3] - Citadel has been particularly active, acquiring assets such as the Paloma gas field for $1.2 billion and a German energy trader, FlexPower [5] - Balyasny is expanding its electricity trading team in Europe by hiring from utility companies, while Jain Global has acquired Anahau Energy to enhance its natural gas trading [5] - Qube has entered the European physical electricity market through its affiliate Volta, which has recently applied to join the New England Power Pool [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Long-term Outlook - Despite a relatively calm commodity market in 2023 compared to the extreme conditions of 2022, hedge funds are still pursuing long-term strategies in physical commodities [4] - Entering the physical commodity space offers hedge funds a theoretically independent return stream and diversification for their portfolios [4] - The potential for significant upside during geopolitical events, similar to those in 2022, justifies the pursuit of this strategy despite lower returns during stable periods [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Risks - Hedge funds face intense competition from established trading giants and must navigate their lack of experience in the physical commodity sector [6] - Concerns have been raised about how hedge funds can compete with major commodity traders that control extensive supply chains and possess valuable information [6] - Historical failures, such as the collapse of Amaranth due to disastrous bets on natural gas derivatives, serve as cautionary tales for hedge funds entering this space [6] - To mitigate risks associated with heavy asset ownership, some funds are adopting more flexible strategies, such as leasing storage facilities instead of direct ownership [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on December 12, 2025, presenting data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for multiple futures varieties across different sectors. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on December 11, 2025, was - 48.4 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend compared to previous days. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodity Basis**: For fuel oil and INE crude oil, the basis on December 11, 2025, was - 1.64 yuan/ton and - 2.37 yuan/ton respectively. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1485 [7]. - **Chemical Commodity Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 285 yuan/ton, methanol was 51 yuan/ton, PTA was - 14 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 466 yuan/ton, V was 84 yuan/ton, and PP was 148 yuan/ton [9]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, methanol was 57 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, methanol was 54 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 5 inter - period, rubber was 20 yuan/ton, methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, LLDPE - PVC was 2267 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 377 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Black Metal Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rebar was 181.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was 33.0 yuan/ton, coke was 113.5 yuan/ton, and coking coal was 135.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Black Metal Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rebar was - 10.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 20.0 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 1 inter - period, rebar was 22.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 43.5 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 5 inter - period, rebar was 32.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 23.5 yuan/ton, etc. [19]. - **Black Metal Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.05, the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.0289, etc. [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the domestic basis of copper was 170 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, zinc was 125 yuan/ton, lead was 5 yuan/ton, nickel was 3350 yuan/ton, and tin was - 600 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market Data**: On December 11, 2025, the LME copper premium/discount was 24.76, aluminum was (26.68), etc.; the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.93, aluminum was 7.65, etc.; the CIF price of copper was 94072.03, aluminum was 23768.13, etc.; the domestic spot price of copper was 92950.00, aluminum was 21910.00, etc.; the import profit/loss of copper was (1122.03), aluminum was (1858.13), etc. [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Agricultural Product Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 153 yuan/ton, soybeans No.2 was - 60.11 yuan/ton, soybean meal was 310 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 534 yuan/ton, and corn was 37 yuan/ton [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 inter - period was 11 yuan/ton, 9 - 1 was 14 yuan/ton, 9 - 5 was 38 yuan/ton; for other products, similar data are provided [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.86, soybeans No.2 to corn was 1.69, etc. [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 12.58, SSE 50 was 7.23, CSI 500 was 8.49, and CSI 1000 was 7.40 [53]. - **Stock Index Futures Inter - period Spreads**: For the CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month was - 16.0, the next - quarter minus current - quarter was - 43.6; for other indices, similar data are provided [53].

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -45 5 理论价差 - - 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 115 115 理论价差 - - 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/12/11 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.98 4.18 5.37 0.95 1.28 0.74 伦（三连） 3.75 4.03 5.84 0.93 1.45 0.64 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储 ...

需求端：截至2025-12-09，复合肥产能利用率40.53%（+3.47%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.66%（+0.86%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.35日（+0.70）。 尿素日报 | 2025-12-10 低价成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-09，尿素主力收盘1643元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1680 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1690元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1680元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：47 元/吨（+3）；河南基差：37元/吨（-7）；江苏基差：37元/吨（-7）；尿素生产利润160元/吨（+0），出口利润878元/ 吨（+19）。 供应端：截至2025-12-09，企业产能利用率81.82%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为129.05 万吨（-7.34），港口样本 库存量为10.50 万吨（+0.50）。 尿素现货价格松动，部分地区低价成交好转，持续性待观察。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，前期煤头企 业检修逐步恢复，目前2025年新增产能全部投产，尿素供应量不减。需求端当前淡储采购进行中，复合肥东北 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port inventory pressure of pure benzene remains high, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipments from South Korea. The short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene in China is large, leading to an accelerated accumulation of port inventory. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market still needs to be repaired. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the downstream operating rates are generally low during the off - season. For styrene, it maintains a low operating rate, and the port inventory continues to decline. The downstream demand shows a mixed performance, with EPS operating rate slightly rebounding during the off - season but still facing inventory pressure, ABS operating rate decreasing due to continuous inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year as the inventory pressure is alleviated [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 190 yuan/ton (- 27), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 190 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 131 yuan/ton (- 38 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The production profit of non - integrated styrene units is - 15 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The CFR China processing fee for pure benzene is 115 dollars/ton (- 1 dollar/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 110 dollars/ton (- 1 dollar/ton), with the US - South Korea price difference being 179.9 dollars/ton (+ 0.0 dollars/ton) [1] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 tons (+ 3.60 tons), and the styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The pure benzene downstream operating rates show a mixed performance: the caprolactam operating rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), the phenol operating rate is 82.00% (+ 1.00%), the aniline operating rate is 77.23% (+ 0.04%), and the adipic acid operating rate is 60.00% (+ 0.60%). The styrene operating rate is 68.9% (+ 1.6%) [1] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Among the styrene downstream hard plastics: the EPS production profit is 18 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), the PS production profit is - 182 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), and the ABS production profit is - 797 yuan/ton (- 71 yuan/ton). The EPS operating rate is 56.36% (+ 1.61%), the PS operating rate is 59.00% (+ 1.40%), and the ABS operating rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - The production profit of caprolactam is - 470 yuan/ton (- 50), the production profit of phenol - acetone is - 977 yuan/ton (- 150), the production profit of aniline is 848 yuan/ton (+ 95), and the production profit of adipic acid is - 1233 yuan/ton (- 45) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Go long on the inter - period spread of EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4]

跨品种套利跟踪 2025/12/09 | 铜/锌 | 铜/铝 | 铜/铅 | 铝/锌 | 铝/铅 | 铅/锌 | 3.99 | 4.16 | 5.37 | 0.96 | 1.29 | 0.74 | 沪（三连） | 3.73 | 4.03 | 5.82 | 0.93 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 伦（三连） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 免责声明: | 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 | 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 | 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 | 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest variety arbitrage data of futures on December 9, 2025, covering multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][4][19][25][38][49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from December 2 to December 8, 2025. The basis decreased from 1.6 yuan/ton on December 2 to - 22.4 yuan/ton on December 8, while the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) remained at 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of fuel oil was 3.31 yuan/ton on December 8 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 365 yuan/ton on December 8 [8] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2236 yuan/ton on December 8 [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 137.0 yuan/ton on December 8 [19] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 12.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.00 on December 8 [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper was - 590 yuan/ton on December 8 [26] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 8, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 8.19 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 65 yuan/ton on December 8 [39] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 was 35 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.80 on December 8 [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 8.55 on December 8 [50] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.4 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures, covering multiple sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, providing various data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from December 1 to December 5, 2025: December 1st was 66.0 yuan/ton, December 2nd was 16.0 yuan/ton, December 3rd was - 3.4 yuan/ton, December 4th was - 10 yuan/ton, and December 5th was - 16 yuan/ton. The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided, along with corresponding price ratios [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 95 yuan/ton. - Inter - variety spreads data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, LLDPE - PVC was 2258 yuan/ton, and LLDPE - PP was 400 yuan/ton. - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are given [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar was 20 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was - 16.0 yuan/ton. - Inter - variety spreads data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are presented. For example, on December 5th, rebar/iron ore was 4.02, and rebar/coke was 19393.1. - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are given [20][21] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of copper was - 790 yuan/ton, and that of aluminum was - 195 yuan/ton [30] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 5, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 23.05, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.94 [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 55 yuan/ton, and that of soybeans No.2 was 84.38 yuan/ton. - Inter - period spreads data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. - Inter - variety spreads data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on December 5, 2025 are given [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of CSI 300 was 10.14, and that of SSE 50 was 4.61. - Inter - period spreads data for the next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 190 [48]