Core Insights - The company employs a diversified trading strategy focusing on three main types: spot-futures arbitrage, inter-month futures arbitrage, and options spread arbitrage [2][3][4] Group 1: Trading Strategies - The initial trading strategy involved spot-futures arbitrage, which allowed the company to earn stable profits from price differences when market conditions were favorable [2] - Following the implementation of anti-involution policies, the company shifted its focus towards inter-month arbitrage due to increased volatility in the price differences of polysilicon futures [2][3] - The company actively engages in rolling operations to capture market fluctuations, enhancing trading volume significantly [2][3] Group 2: Options Strategy - The company favors options trading due to the sufficient depth of strike prices available, which supports the implementation of a "wheel strategy" [4][5] - The wheel strategy involves selling put options to optimize costs and generate revenue, allowing the company to acquire futures at a lower effective price [4] - The company emphasizes the importance of time value in options trading, focusing on selling options to capture this value while also employing various strategies to maximize profits or provide protection for existing positions [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/21 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86425 10740 8.02 三月 86100 10759 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.08 -503.28 现货出口 21.23 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3125 7.17 三月 22405 2990 5.77 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -4165.28 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21570 2781 7.75 三月 21555 2812 7.68 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.35 -1645.40 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14384 8.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -1472.02 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/21 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17100 1986 8.62 三月 17235 2015 11.12 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.73 -21 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/11/20 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 460 460 460 410 理论价差 530 959 1396 1833 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 15 35 45 85 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 150 160 170 195 理论价差 218 337 456 575 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 40 60 40 50 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 990 1140 1420 1690 锡 5-1 价差 -360 理论价差 6070 期现套利跟踪 2025/11/20 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -430 30 理论价差 - - 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 20 35 理论价差 - - 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/20 国内价格 ...

Core Insights - The overall financial and economic data for October fell short of expectations, leading to increased expectations for policy adjustments. However, the central bank's reiteration of "cross-cycle adjustment" and continued downplaying of total financial indicators suggest that the likelihood of rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term is low [1][3][4] Economic Data Summary - October economic data showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with fixed asset investment growth dropping by 5.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Despite this, the weakness in indicators may be temporary, and there is a significant probability of recovery as policy effects materialize [2] - New RMB loans in October amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 280 billion. The loan balance grew by 6.5% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The structure of loans weakened, with significant reductions in new medium- and long-term loans for households and enterprises [2] - The social financing scale in October was only 815 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion, indicating a slowdown in government bond issuance impacting overall financing [2] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report maintained a loose tone, emphasizing the implementation of an appropriately loose monetary policy. The removal of phrases like "preventing fund turnover" indicates a more positive stance compared to the second quarter [3] - The central bank highlighted the importance of a "reasonable interest rate comparison," suggesting that if corporate financing rates fall below government bond yields, it indicates an unsustainable situation regarding risk pricing [3] Market Predictions - The published October financial and economic indicators not meeting expectations has led to heightened expectations for policy adjustments. However, the central bank's focus on structural changes rather than total financial indicators suggests limited probability for aggressive monetary policy adjustments [4] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by factors such as government bond payments and tax periods. The sentiment in the bond market is still affected by new regulations on public bond fund redemptions [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on November 19, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86000, the LME spot price was 10647, with a ratio of 8.12; the domestic three - month price was 85660, the LME three - month price was 10682, with a ratio of 8.04. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22290, the LME spot price was 3100, with a ratio of 7.19; the domestic three - month price was 22345, the LME three - month price was 2971, with a ratio of 5.82. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21460, the LME spot price was 2752, with a ratio of 7.80; the domestic three - month price was 21480, the LME three - month price was 2788, with a ratio of 7.71. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118800, the LME spot price was 14335, with a ratio of 8.29. The spot import profit was - 2326.46 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17100, the LME spot price was 2002, with a ratio of 8.57; the domestic three - month price was 17245, the LME three - month price was 2030, with a ratio of 10.98. There was no information on spot import and export profitability [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 670, - 670, - 650, - 720 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 534, 965, 1406, 1847 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 125, - 110, - 90, - 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, 579 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 120, - 105, - 90, - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, 579 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 40, - 25, - 30, 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 319, 426, 533 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, three - month - spot month, four - month - spot month, and five - month - spot month were - 1650, - 1430, - 1190, - 900 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 130, and the theoretical spread was 5980 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 365 and - 305 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 165 and 40 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 170 and 130 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.83, 3.99, 4.97, 0.96, 1.25, 0.77 respectively; for London (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.86, 5.30, 0.93, 1.37, 0.68 respectively [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - term, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 18, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86490, the LME spot price was 10779, and the ratio was 8.07; the domestic three - month price was 86450, the LME three - month price was 10812, and the ratio was 8.01. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22380, the LME spot price was 3126, and the ratio was 7.16; the domestic three - month price was 22490, the LME three - month price was 3022, and the ratio was 5.76. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21620, the LME spot price was 2809, and the ratio was 7.70; the domestic three - month price was 21725, the LME three - month price was 2848, and the ratio was 7.64. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120300, the LME spot price was 14616, and the ratio was 8.23. The profit for spot import was - 2326.46 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME spot price was 2037, and the ratio was 8.48; the domestic three - month price was 17355, the LME three - month price was 2054, and the ratio was 10.93. No profit data for spot import was provided [3] Cross - Term Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 370, - 370, - 410, and - 410 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 536, 970, 1413, and 1856 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10, 35, 75, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 579 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 75, - 25, 0, and - 5, and the theoretical spreads were 220, 341, 461, and 582 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 120, - 90, - 65, and - 75, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 490, - 290, - 60, and 190 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 630, and the theoretical spread was 6008 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 360 and - 10 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75 and 85 respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 245 and 125 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.84, 3.98, 4.98, 0.97, 1.25, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.60, 3.83, 5.29, 0.94, 1.38, and 0.68 respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a weekly strategy report from the Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute, covering stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity CTA strategies [1][38][51] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Market Review - The market declined last week, with the electronics sector contributing the main decline in each index [3] - IH and IF trading volumes increased week-on-week, while IC and IM trading volumes decreased. The basis weakened [4] Strategy Recommendations - For the basis strategy, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of calendar spread arbitrage when the discount narrows due to market sentiment. The rollover strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4] - For the arbitrage strategy, in the calendar spread arbitrage, the annualized basis rate, cash - and - carry, and momentum factor strategies were profitable last week, with returns of 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.2% respectively (6 - times leverage). The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthesis strategy had a net profit of 0.1% last week, and the latest signal recommends 50% long IF and short IC, 100% long IM and short IC [5] - For the timing strategy, the daily timing strategy was generally profitable last week, with the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 having returns of 0.4%, 0.6%, 1.1%, and - 0.7% respectively. The timing model's latest signal shows a significant increase in bullish sentiment [6] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Strategy Focus - For the basis and calendar spread, the IRR of treasury bond futures declined this week, and the calendar spread was volatile and strong. The space for cash - and - carry arbitrage is limited, and it is expected to move sideways [40] - For interest rate timing and hedging signals, the interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and it is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging [40][41] - For the futures timing strategy, the multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral, with the basis factor and high - frequency factor being mainly bullish, and the spread factor and volume - price factor being mainly bearish [40][44] - For the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signals of the treasury bond futures cross - variety arbitrage strategies TS - T and T - TL are neutral [40][47] Group 4: Commodity CTA Factor Performance - Last week, the performance of various commodity varieties in the market varied. Precious metal silver led the rise due to renewed risk - aversion sentiment, and lithium carbonate rose 7%, while coking coal, glass, and red dates led the decline. Most commodity factors had good increases, with the momentum trend and term structure factors with significant long - term logic having an average increase of over 1%, and the value factor rising nearly 2%. The position - related factor had a slight increase, the spot - futures basis factor had a slight decline, and the warehouse receipt factor was basically flat [52][54] Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. For example, the CW FT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.61, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81% [53]

Report Overview - The report is a non - ferrous metals arbitrage morning report released by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center on November 14, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking for multiple non - ferrous metals [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,210, the three - month price was 87,580, the LME three - month price was 10,963, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] Zinc - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 22,785, the LME three - month price was 3,089, and the ratio was 5.75 [1] Aluminum - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 22,050, the LME three - month price was 2,902, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] Lead - On November 14, 2025, the domestic three - month price was 17,670, the LME three - month price was 2,089, and the ratio was 10.85 [1][3] Nickel - On November 14, 2025, the profit from spot import was - 2,084.11 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 770, 800, 840, and 810 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 536, 970, 1413, and 1856 [4] Zinc - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 130, 175, 210, and 235 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4] Aluminum - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 200, 250, 250, and 265 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 220, 341, 462, and 583 [4] Lead - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 50, 70, 70, and 85 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 213, 322, 431, and 540 [4] Nickel - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 630, 800, 1040, and 1220 [4] Tin - On November 14, 2025, the 5 - 1 spread was - 740, with a theoretical spread of 6161 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - On November 14, 2025, the spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 380 and 390 respectively [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 14, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.84, 3.97, 4.96, 0.97, 1.25, and 0.78 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 13, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis and Inter - period Spreads**: The basis of power coal on November 12, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, the basis on November 12, 2025, was 4.45 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt and other data such as INE crude oil basis were also presented [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 470 yuan/ton, methanol was - 13 yuan/ton, PTA was - 85 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 312 yuan/ton, PVC was - 106 yuan/ton, and PP was 35 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 85 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the spread of LLDPE - PVC was 2199 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 329 yuan/ton, PP - PVC was 1870 yuan/ton, and PP - 3*methanol was 149 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of螺纹钢 was 162.0 yuan/ton,铁矿石 was 6.0 yuan/ton,焦炭 was - 84.5 yuan/ton, and焦煤 was 216.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of螺纹钢 was 60.0 yuan/ton,铁矿石 was - 270 yuan/ton,焦炭 was 1435 yuan/ton, and焦煤 was 58.5 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the ratio of螺/矿 was 3.94,螺/焦炭 was 17972,焦炭/焦煤 was 1.3889, and螺 - 热卷 was - 219.0 yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of copper was - 190 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, zinc was - 70 yuan/ton, lead was - 250 yuan/ton, nickel was 2060 yuan/ton, and tin was - 1440 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: On November 12, 2025, the LME升贴水 of copper was (14.10), aluminum was (27.55), zinc was 128.30, lead was (23.90), nickel was (203.90), and tin was 51.00. The沪伦比 and CIF and domestic spot prices were also provided [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of豆一 was - 107 yuan/ton,豆二 was 294.81 yuan/ton,豆粕 was - 9 yuan/ton,豆油 was 242 yuan/ton, and玉米 was - 17 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of豆一 was 43 yuan/ton,豆二 was - 216 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the ratio of豆一/玉米 was 1.89,豆二/玉米 was 1.73,豆油/豆粕 was 2.71,豆粕 - 菜粕 was 564 yuan/ton,豆油 - 棕榈油 was - 478 yuan/ton,菜油 - 豆油 was 1538 yuan/ton, and玉米 - 玉米淀粉 was - 312 yuan/ton [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On November 12, 2025, the basis of沪深300 was 17.91,上证50 was 1.50,中证500 was 88.05, and中证1000 was 116.58 [52]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The次月 - 当月 spread of沪深300 was - 158,上证50 was - 38,中证500 was - 706, and中证1000 was - 916 [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 12, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodity categories such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows that the basis increased from - 2.4 yuan/ton on November 5 to 29.6 yuan/ton on November 11 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 5 to November 11, 2025, is provided, with values such as - 74.14, - 31.93, etc. [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of rubber changed from - 500 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 395 yuan/ton on November 11 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are presented, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber being 75 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are given, with values like 2203 yuan/ton for LLDPE - PVC on November 11 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of rebar increased from 146 yuan/ton on November 5 to 175 yuan/ton on November 11 [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar being 61 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are given, with values like 3.97 for rebar/iron ore on November 11 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of copper changed from - 350 yuan/ton on November 5 to 20 yuan/ton on November 11 [29]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, etc., on November 11, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (21.28) [32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 changed from - 103 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 92 yuan/ton on November 11 [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 being 44 yuan/ton [39]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc., are given, with values like 1.90 for soybeans No.1/corn on November 11 [38][39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of CSI 300 changed from 30.66 on November 5 to 25.37 on November 11 [50]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, such as the next - month minus current - month spread for CSI 300 being - 144 [50].