白银 随着金银比攀升至87.00上方，白银基本持平。相对强弱指标处于中等水平，短期内有足够的空间获得动力。 •黄金试图收于3330美元上方。 •随着金银比升至87.00上方，白银基本持平。 •铂金未能收于1400-1405美元支撑位下方。 黄金 由于交易员在强劲回调后逢低买入，黄金上涨。美元触及数周高位，但这并未给黄金市场带来压力。 若金价能够回到阻力位3350-3360美元上方，则将朝着下一个阻力位3440-3450美元移动。 如果银价回升至38.50美元上方，则将向最近的阻力位39.80-40.00美元前进。 铂金 铂金试图收于1400美元下方，但失去了动力，回升至1410美元上方。 如果铂金保持在1400-1405美元支撑位之上，则将向1495-1500美元的阻力位迈进。 ...

黄金盛宴下的冰与火之歌：产业链在高压下挣扎求生 在金价如火箭般蹿升的背景下，一幅冰与火交织的复杂画卷正在贵金属产业链上徐徐展开。国际金价气势如虹，一举冲破3400美元/盎司，刷新了五周来的 最高纪录，国内金饰市场也随之沸腾，各大品牌金店的首饰价格普遍突破1000元/克大关，单日涨幅高达7-10元/克。 就在这黄金盛世之中，市场的脉搏却并非全然跳动着兴奋的节拍。上海黄金交易所的风险提示公告在交易大厅闪烁，提醒着每个逐金者：盛宴背后，暗流从 未停息。 国际黄金市场的风云突变，为这场"淘金热"埋下了伏笔。7月22日，COMEX期货黄金价格单日暴涨1.55%，国内金价也同步上扬，上海黄金交易所报价直逼 781.50元/克。周大福、周生生等金饰品牌迅速做出反应，单日涨价7-10元/克，足金首饰价格分别攀升至1015元/克和1021元/克。 避险情绪的升温，无疑是这轮金价上涨的重要推手。随着8月1日欧美关税谈判截止日的临近，叠加中东地区紧张局势的持续升级以及美债收益率的大幅回 落，大量资金涌入黄金市场，单日流入黄金ETF的资金就高达18.7吨。同时，美元指数跌至三个月低点，进一步凸显了黄金的投资吸引力。 面对如此迅猛的涨 ...

Group 1 - Silver has recently experienced a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of nearly 19% in London silver spot prices since June and approximately 35% in silver futures year-to-date, surpassing gold's increase of about 27% [3][4] - The price surge of silver is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risks and its industrial properties, with industrial demand accounting for 60% of total silver demand [5][7] - The historical relationship between gold and silver prices is closely linked, with the gold-silver ratio averaging around 58 since 1968, but this ratio has increased significantly due to gold's rapid price rise [4][5] Group 2 - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic energy and electronics, is driving its price up, as silver is essential in manufacturing solar panels and electronic components [9][10] - The increasing gap between gold and silver prices has created arbitrage opportunities, prompting investors to buy silver in anticipation of its price catching up to gold [9][12] - The recognition of silver's substantial utility value, both as a precious metal and an industrial raw material, is contributing to its rising demand, especially as global economic recovery continues [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively neutral short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a somewhat bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals prices rose. Powell's speech did not mention monetary policy, and the conflict between the White House and the Fed has drawn attention to the Fed's independence. Recently, the macro - sentiment has been positive, with commodities rising in rotation, and precious metals have followed this trend. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to decline. Due to high market uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policies, risk sentiment is volatile, and precious metals are likely to fluctuate widely, so chasing the market is not advisable [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariff Policies - The US Treasury Secretary stated that August 1st is a "relatively firm deadline" for all countries. EU trade negotiations are separate from Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiations, and Japan's negotiations are progressing smoothly. Canada's Ontario Province is still considering an electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid full - scale US tariffs. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, while the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero tariffs. The US announced details of a trade agreement with Indonesia. The Canadian Prime Minister said that a favorable agreement for Canada with the US is "not on the table" [2] Fed and Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and said there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can. White House officials plan to visit the Fed headquarters on Thursday. Trump believes Powell will soon leave and that interest rates should be cut by 3 percentage points or more. A fake Powell resignation letter circulated on social media. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and its responsibility for transparency and accountability [2]

Core Insights - Gold prices have recently reached record highs, surpassing $3500 per ounce before retreating to $3350, while silver prices peaked above $37 per ounce, remaining below historical highs from 1980 and 2011 [1] - The relative value of gold and silver continues to fluctuate due to supply growth, central bank purchases, technological advancements, and the economic growth in China [1] Price Correlation - Historically, gold and silver prices have shown a high correlation, with a one-year rolling correlation coefficient ranging from 0.68 to 0.95, but this correlation has recently dropped to its lowest level in over 20 years [3] - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to purchase one ounce of gold, has fluctuated significantly, recently exceeding 100 for the first time since 2020 before falling back to 90 in June [4] Supply Dynamics - Gold production has been approximately 97 million ounces, while silver production is around 800 million ounces, with both metals' production peaking around 2015 and stabilizing since then [7] - Central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2008, which has reduced the available gold supply in the market, contrasting with silver, whose supply has increased by over 35% since 2005 [7][9] Demand Factors - Gold has limited industrial applications, primarily being used in jewelry and investment, while silver has a wide range of industrial uses, including in batteries and solar panels [10][11] - The demand for silver is significantly influenced by global industrial demand, particularly in the context of its growing applications in technology [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 to 87.5. Gold prices remained in a narrow - range oscillation. Given the strong US economic data, gold is hard to show a trend. Silver is relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to correct. If silver breaks through 9000 yuan/kg, it may reach around 40 dollars in the third quarter, but there is downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening silver paste demand [10]. - **Copper**: Downstream buyers purchase at low prices, and the macro - sentiment improves marginally, supporting price increases. Domestically, copper inventories decrease, and the spot premium strengthens. Globally, total inventories increase mainly due to rising overseas inventories. Uncertainties exist in the macro - environment, but there is strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long - position cautiously and conduct calendar spread arbitrage [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - Gold prices were in a narrow - range oscillation with a slight increase. Silver broke through 9000 yuan/kg, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures showed different changes. COMEX and ETF positions also had corresponding adjustments [11]. Price Spread - **Overseas**: The London spot - COMEX gold and silver spreads had specific changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 15.55 dollars/ounce [16][19]. - **Domestic**: Gold and silver's domestic term spreads and inter - month spreads were at different positions in the historical range. For example, the gold term spread was at the lower end of the historical range [22]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, and the registered warrant ratios changed. Gold and silver futures inventories also had corresponding adjustments. ETF positions of gold decreased, while those of silver increased [42][44][54][56]. Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10YTIPS continued to decline [65]. Copper Market Performance - LME copper inventories increased significantly, and the 0 - 3 spot discount widened. Domestic copper inventories decreased, and the spot premium strengthened [88][89]. - Four - market copper volatility increased, with COMEX copper volatility reaching around 33% and LME copper at around 7% [94]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The tightness of copper concentrate supply weakened, the spot TC increased marginally, and the smelting loss narrowed. The refined - scrap spread recovered but was still below the break - even point [88]. - **Demand**: In the domestic consumption off - season, orders from processing enterprises weakened marginally in July, but low prices attracted downstream and end - users to buy. The apparent consumption was good, with power grid investment and the growth of air - conditioner and new - energy vehicle production providing support [88]. Trading Strategies - Hold long - position cautiously for single - side trading and conduct calendar spread arbitrage due to the decrease in domestic inventories and the strengthening of the spot premium [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 the previous week to 87.5, the 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.03%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.44% (2 - year 3.88%), and the US dollar index was 98.46 [5]. - Gold prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range and rose slightly. The June CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, with the core CPI year - on - year at 2.9% and the overall CPI at 2.7%. The US economy showed resilience after the tariff shock. Gold is difficult to have a trending market, while the gold - silver ratio continued to decline, and silver broke through 9,000 yuan/kg. If it breaks through 9,000 yuan, it may reach around $40 in the third quarter, but there is still downward pressure on prices in the second half of the year due to the weakening demand for silver paste [5]. - The price of silver tends to be stronger relative to gold, and the gold - silver ratio may be frequently repaired. When silver breaks through, there may be a rapid upward movement, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline, with gold also being relatively strong [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Change**: This week, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9,273 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.58%, and the night - session closing price was 4380 yuan, with a night - session decline of 1.68%. The closing price of Silver T + D was 9,211 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.03%. For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 777.02 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 870,782 lots, an increase of 269,669 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 479,676 lots, an increase of 76,720 lots. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2510 was 54,415 lots, a decrease of 12,354 lots, and the open interest was 129,798 lots, a decrease of 159 lots [6]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 92,517 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver increased by 2,324,290 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai gold increased by 4,272 kg, and the inventory of Comex gold increased by 445,088 ounces [6]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The spot - to - futures price difference of silver decreased by 50 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.61 yuan. The monthly price difference of silver decreased by 4 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.8 yuan [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index closed at 98.46 this week, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.18, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [6]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Position) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to -$15.55/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was -$10.5/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract widened to -$0.686/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was -$0.145/ounce [11][14]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Price Difference**: This week, the gold spot - futures price difference was -4.26 yuan/g, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures price difference was -12 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [17][20]. - **Monthly Price Difference**: This week, the gold monthly price difference was 5.4 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly price difference was 74 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [24][28]. - **Cross - month Arbitrage Delivery Cost**: The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 9.30 yuan/g, and that of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 14.57 yuan/g. The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 119.48 yuan/kg, and that of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 167.88 yuan/kg [31][34]. - **Delivery Fee Direction**: This week, the gold delivery fee at the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The silver delivery fee was also mainly paid by longs to shorts [35]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.04 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4.36 million ounces to 494.92 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.7%. The gold futures inventory increased by 3,129 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1,303 tons [37][39][41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions**: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 0.02 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 21.5 tons [49][51]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 91.8 last week to 90.4 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [55]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rate**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [60]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Data on new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage were presented, showing the overall situation of the non - farm employment market [68][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Economic and Inflation Surprise Indexes**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The probability of Fed rate cuts in different time periods was presented, showing the market's expectations for Fed monetary policy [77].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has recently gained significant attention, reaching a price of $39.116 per ounce, the highest since September 2011, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 35%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1][3]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Silver's price surge is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risks and its industrial properties [4]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the relationship between gold and silver prices, has increased significantly, indicating that silver is undervalued compared to gold [5]. - Following a historic rise in gold prices, the gold-silver ratio peaked above 100, but has since decreased to around 90, allowing for upward movement in silver prices [5][6]. Group 2: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand constitutes 60% of silver's total demand, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic industry and emerging technologies such as electric vehicles and 5G [6]. - The World Silver Survey projects a total silver demand of 1.164 billion ounces in 2024, with industrial demand accounting for 58.5% of this figure [6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The rise in silver prices has sparked a renewed interest in silver investment products, with sales of silver bars and coins increasing by over 40% year-on-year [7]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a record high holding of 14,966.24 tons as of July 14, 2025, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market [10]. - Investment inflows into silver ETFs in the first half of 2025 have already surpassed the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a growing bullish outlook [11]. Group 4: Company Performance - Companies with significant silver production, such as Xinyi Silver and Hunan Silver, have seen substantial increases in their stock prices and market valuations due to the rising silver prices [12]. - Xinyi Silver's market capitalization reached 32.5 billion yuan, with a stock price increase of nearly 65% over three months [13]. - Hunan Silver reported a 19.01% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by the surge in silver prices [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on silver, with Citigroup raising its three-month target price from $38 to $40 and its six to twelve-month target to $43, citing tightening supply conditions [15]. - The long-term price trajectory of silver is expected to be influenced by supply-demand dynamics and financial attributes, particularly in the context of global inflation and geopolitical tensions [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, highlighting its significant increase and the underlying factors driving this trend. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have reached their highest level since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of 32.9%, surpassing gold's increase of 27.84% during the same period [3][4]. - The rise in silver prices can be attributed to two distinct phases of increase throughout the year [10][16]. - The first phase of increase occurred from January to April, driven by a physical squeeze in the silver market as institutions began demanding physical delivery of silver [10][17]. - The second phase began in April and is characterized by market leaders increasing their long positions in silver futures, with silver ETF holdings reaching a historical high of 14,758 tons [19][20]. Group 2: Market Influences and Psychology - The imbalance in the gold-silver ratio, which exceeded 100 during gold's price surge, created a market demand for correction, prompting increased investment in silver [25][26]. - Market leaders are capitalizing on rising risk aversion due to economic uncertainties, leading to a shift in investment towards silver as a safer asset [28][30]. - The article suggests that if silver prices surpass $40, it could trigger a short squeeze, further driving prices upward [31][32]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The article notes a paradox in the capital markets, where traditional securities are performing well while safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also reaching new highs [40][41]. - This situation reflects a broader issue of asset scarcity in the market, leading to a split in investment strategies between traditional dollar assets and alternative safe-haven assets [42][44]. - The current market environment necessitates that investors identify stable, income-generating assets to safeguard their wealth [51].

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are accumulating gold at the fastest pace in three years, while gold prices are experiencing significant volatility due to trade policies and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The increase in steel tariffs from 25% to 30% by the Trump administration has created a delayed impact on the market, with costs expected to rise significantly in the coming months [3]. - A 1% increase in tariffs could lead to an additional cost of $24 billion for American consumers [3]. - The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable, with potential cost increases of 20% once existing inventory is depleted [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with at least six members advocating for immediate cuts while others caution against premature action [4][5]. - The market is betting heavily on a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs [4][5]. - Recent CPI data showing a drop to 3.1% has further fueled expectations for rate cuts, impacting gold prices [5]. Group 3: Central Banks' Gold Purchases - Emerging market central banks have been net buyers of gold for nine consecutive months, with significant purchases from Turkey and India [7][9]. - Poland's central bank has notably completed 60% of its goal to purchase 100 tons of gold within the first half of the year [9]. - Despite a 3% drop in gold prices in June, central bank purchases surged by 40% year-over-year, indicating strong demand [9]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Trading Behavior - Gold prices have shown extreme volatility, with significant daily fluctuations driven by geopolitical events and Federal Reserve signals [10]. - The gold-silver ratio has increased to 88:1, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards silver mining stocks [11]. - The market remains uncertain, with ongoing pressures from tariffs and interest rate expectations creating both risks and opportunities for investors [13].