Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The dovish signal from Fed Governor Waller indicates that the gold and silver markets will continue to trade on the expectation of future monetary easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to show a moderately bullish trend in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and the Ag2510 contract between 9,200 yuan/kilogram and 9,600 yuan/kilogram [8][10] Market Analysis Economic Data - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in Q2 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised value of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [1] Employment Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, compared to an expected 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 235,000 to 234,000 [1] Interest Rates - Fed Governor Waller supports a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. He believes that unless the August employment report shows a significant economic slowdown and inflation is well - controlled, there is no need for a larger - scale rate cut in September [1] Tariffs - The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products on Thursday, which is part of a trade agreement with the US. This agreement could retroactively reduce US tariffs on European cars [1] Futures Market Gold Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 783.22 yuan/gram, a change of 0.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 783.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close [2] Silver Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,287.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,377.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.77% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 337,242 lots, and the open interest was 278,545 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,390 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.30% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 28, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.203%, up 0.19 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.572%, down 0.22 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold - On the Au2508 contract, there were no changes in both long and short positions compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 192,127 lots, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 583,887 lots, a change of 30.49% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 5.44 tons to 967.94 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 57.89 tons to 15,332.59 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Spot - Futures Price Difference - On August 28, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 12.99 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 783.07 yuan/kilogram [6] Gold - Silver Ratio - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 83.53, a change of - 0.51% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.49, a change of 0.79% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 30,942 kilograms, a change of 13.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 475,098 kilograms, a change of 33.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,518 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Report Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to heat up, driving precious metal prices to fluctuate at high levels. The market's risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased due to doubts about the Fed's independence, supporting the safe - haven premium of gold. Silver's trading logic is mainly driven by the future easing expectation, and it is expected to continue the upward trend with the regression logic of the gold - silver ratio [1][8] Group 2: Market Analysis - New York Fed President Williams said that it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview 11 "very strong" candidates for the Fed Chairman starting next month, and the selection will be announced this fall. The Trump administration is studying a plan to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [1] Group 3: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.68 yuan/gram, closing at 781.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 784.16 yuan/gram, a 0.38% increase from the afternoon closing. The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9300.00 yuan/kilogram, closing at 9305.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 9327 yuan/kilogram, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing [2] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 27, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.234%, remaining flat from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.623%, also remaining flat [3] Group 5: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On August 27, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions changed by 0 hands. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 192052 hands, a change of 8.75% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 hands, and short positions changed by - 2 hands. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 447460 hands, a change of - 5.65% from the previous trading day [4] Group 6: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.5 tons, an increase of 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15274.7 tons, a decrease of 14.12 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 7: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 740.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 83.95, a change of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 87.79, a change of - 1.49% from the previous trading day [6] Group 8: Fundamental Data - On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27306 kilograms, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 354762 kilograms, a change of 30.65% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8614 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 330 kilograms [7] Group 9: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 810 yuan/gram. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to continue the upward trend, with the Ag2508 contract oscillating between 9100 yuan/kilogram and 9600 yuan/kilogram. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: Postpone [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current marginal growth pattern of global silver shows "limited primary growth + increased by - product output + regional disturbances." The short - term supply elasticity is weak, and the price is more sensitive to demand and financial variables [42]. - Recent dovish signals from Fed officials strengthen the downward expectation of the forward real - interest - rate curve. The financial attribute premium of silver is supported. In the benchmark scenario, the view of "declining gold - silver ratio, silver outperforming gold, and price rising with high volatility" is maintained [43]. 3. Summary according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Recent Market Background and Summary of Major Silver Mining Enterprises - Major silver producers generally have the characteristics of "tightening primary ore increment and relying on by - products for silver increment." Pure silver ore increment is limited, and global new supply more depends on by - product recovery from copper/zinc projects. The supply side continues to feature "low elasticity + regional disturbances" [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy Suggestions - At the macro level, the co - existence of global growth slowdown and the bottom - up repair of the manufacturing industry, along with the rising market expectation of the Fed's moderate easing within the year and the high - level slowdown of real interest rates, support the main line of silver's "financial elasticity + stable industrial demand" [3]. 3.3 Global Major Silver Producers' Situation 3.3.1 Fresnillo plc - In 2024, its silver equity production was 56.31 million ounces, basically flat with 2023. In 2025 H1, the silver equity production was 24.9 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of about 8.30%. The company maintains the annual production guidance of 49 - 56 million ounces [8][9]. 3.3.2 KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. - In 2024, its silver production was 1341 tons, a year - on - year decline of 6%. In 2025 H1, it was about 657.2 tons, a year - on - year decline of 3%. The Sierra Gorda mine in Chile is expected to expand in mid - 2025, which may increase copper and silver production [14][15]. 3.3.3 Newmont Corporation - In 2024, its silver production was about 33 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 83%. In 2025 H1, it was about 14 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of 17.6%. The 2025 annual production guidance is about 28 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of 15.21% compared with 2024 [21]. 3.3.4 Pan American Silver Corp. - In 2024, its silver production was 21.061 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 3.05%. In 2025 H1, it was 10.097 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. The main increments come from La Colorada and El Peñon [23][24]. 3.3.5 Southern Copper Corporation - In 2024, its silver production was 20.983 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In 2025 H1, it was 11.43 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The 2025 annual guidance is 23 million ounces, a 9% increase compared with 2024 [30][31]. 3.3.6 Glencore plc - In 2024, its silver production was 19.286 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of 4%. In 2025 H1, it was 9.097 million ounces, basically flat year - on - year. The decline in Collahuasi is offset by the increase in Antamina, Kazzinc, and Kidd [33][34]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Review - Since 1980, the gold - silver ratio has generally shown a long - cycle pattern of "high - level fluctuation - periodic convergence - expansion again." The ratio converges when "loose policy + industrial recovery + re - inflation" resonate, and expands in the stage of "tightening/stagflation + declining risk appetite" [39]. 3.5 Summary and Hedging Suggestions - The short - term supply elasticity of silver is weak. If the Fed continues to compress the real - interest - rate spread and the economy has a "moderate slowdown," silver will benefit from the dual - drive of "metal financial attribute + industrial buffer" [42][43].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On Hold [9] 2. Core Views - Due to the resilience of inflation and the employment market shown in the latest US macro data, there are significant differences in the market's short-term expectations for the future interest rate cut rhythm. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is crucial, but it's difficult for Fed Chair Powell to provide clear guidance on the future interest rate path [1][8]. - Global tariff risks have not been fully cleared. India plans a tax reform to boost the economy and cope with tariff shocks, and Germany demands the US to lower tariffs on European cars [1]. - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver prices are also expected to be volatile, and the convergence logic of the gold-silver ratio provides some impetus. The Ag2508 contract may fluctuate between 9150 yuan/kilogram and 9550 yuan/kilogram [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.92 yuan/gram, closed at 777.66 yuan/gram, a 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 775.04 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9176.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9258.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 298,755 lots, and the open interest was 350,742 lots. The night session closed at 9225 yuan/kilogram, a 0.36% decline from the afternoon close [2]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a +1BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, a -1BP change from the previous trading day [3]. 3.3 SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,262 lots, a 10.58% change from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 460,303 lots, a 21.19% change from the previous trading day [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 965.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15356.61 tons, an increase of 285.30 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.5 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -5.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -749.80 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.00, a 0.52% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.64, a 1.19% change from the previous trading day [6]. 3.6 Fundamental Data - On August 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,224 kilograms, a 4.26% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 272,182 kilograms, a -2.75% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,350 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,610 kilograms [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The resilience of US employment and inflation has cooled the prospects of interest rate cuts, and precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales month-on-month rate data for July [1]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still in sync with that of gold, mainly driven by future easing expectations on the macro level, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term under the cooling of interest rate cut expectations [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 778.12 yuan/gram and closed at 778.70 yuan/gram, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 776.9 yuan/gram and closed at 774.54 yuan/gram, up 0.53% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,332.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,286.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 350,484 lots, and the open interest was 366,680 lots. During the night session, it opened at 9,242 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,197 yuan/kilogram, down 0.96% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 14, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, a change of +5 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.56%, down 1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On August 14, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -90 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 188,176 lots, a change of -30.00% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -328 lots, and the short positions changed by -408 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 532,407 lots, a change of -16.86% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 961.35 tons, a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,071.31 tons, a decrease of 28.25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -8.95 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -671.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 83.86, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day. The ratio of gold and silver prices in the overseas market was 87.08, a change of -1.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,284 kilograms, a change of -31.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 465,346 kilograms, a change of 23.50% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,664 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 47,970 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The short-term price of gold is expected to remain volatile, with the Au2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The short-term price of silver is expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 9,015 yuan/kilogram and 9,350 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

近期，国际贵金属市场表现活跃，伦敦现货黄金价格一度回升至3400美元/盎司上方，而伦敦现货 白银价格更是创下逾13年来新高。与此同时，金银比价从100以上的高位回落至91附近，表明白银近期 走势明显强于黄金。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间6月17日19时40分，伦敦现货黄金与伦敦现货白银比价为91.6，5月23 日该比价为100.28。 "此次白银价格异动本质上是市场对前期过度低估的定价进行修复。"正信期货首席宏观分析师蒲祖 林分析称，此前金银比价突破100的历史高位，反映出避险资金过度集中于黄金市场，同时市场过分强 调白银的工业属性而忽视其金融属性。6月以来，随着国际贸易形势改善和美联储降息预期升温，被低 估的白银市场迎来价值重估，价格出现快速补涨，金银比价因此回落。 从估值角度看，国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，当前金银比价虽有所回落，但仍显著高于60-80 的历史均值区间，表明白银相对黄金仍具估值优势，后市金银比价或继续向下修复。 可作为黄金市场的补充 业内人士表示，近期白银价格的强势表现主要受到两方面因素推动：一是国际贸易环境改善，二是 市场对美联储降息预期升温，带动资金加速流入白银市场。尽管白银的避 ...

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current correction of silver prices is a technical adjustment in the bull market, caused by temporary factors such as the Fed's hawkish stance, short - term strong US economic data, and domestic policies falling short of expectations. The core logic supporting the long - term strength of silver has been further strengthened during the adjustment. The report maintains the view that domestic silver will break through the 10,000 yuan/kg mark within the third quarter, and the Shanghai silver main contract below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors should take advantage of the current correction to build long positions [17][18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for Silver Price Correction - The Fed's hawkish stance: In the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chair Powell's remarks were more hawkish than expected, causing the US dollar index to rise for seven consecutive trading days to 100.09 on August 1st, hitting a new high since the end of May. The stronger US dollar increased the holding cost of silver, pressuring international and domestic silver prices [4] - Short - term strong US economic data: The US GDP annualized growth rate in Q2 reached 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The PCE price index in June rose to 2.6% year - on - year, compressing the space for monetary policy shift and pushing up real interest rates, which suppressed the performance of silver [5] - Domestic policy meetings falling short of expectations: The stimulus signals released by the July Politburo economic work meeting did not meet market optimism, leading to a general correction in the domestic commodity market, and silver prices were also pressured. After the meeting, the main contract of Shanghai silver reduced positions and declined, indicating short - term departure of long - position funds [6] Factors Supporting Long - Term Silver Strength - Supply - demand structure tightening: The global silver market is expected to face a supply shortage for the seventh consecutive year in 2025, with a cumulative shortage of 800 million ounces from 2021 - 2025. Mine production has been declining, and industrial demand for silver is growing. Exchange silver inventories have decreased by 18% since the beginning of the year, reaching the lowest level since 2014 [8] - Re - evaluation of financial attributes and hedging value: In the first half of 2025, global silver ETP had a net inflow of 95 million ounces, and retail investment in silver coins and bars in Asia and North America was booming. India's purchases of physical silver and silver ETFs hit record highs. In the context of geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, silver has a unique "dual - wheel drive" pattern [10] - Favorable macro - environment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is over 70%, and it is almost certain to cut rates before the end of October. Global major economies' fiscal policies are still in a loose cycle, and post - pandemic excess liquidity will gradually flow into silver [11] - Sufficient momentum for the convergence of gold - silver ratio: The current gold - silver ratio is around 86, still significantly higher than the historical average of 50 - 60. If gold prices remain stable, silver needs to rise to $42 per ounce (about 10,500 yuan/kg in China) for the gold - silver ratio to return to a reasonable level, with a potential upside of over 20% [13] Technical Analysis and Investment Strategy - Technical adjustment: The current correction of silver is a healthy adjustment in the bull market. The main contract of Shanghai silver has strong support in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan, and the price stabilized after a decline on August 1st, indicating that the short - term adjustment is almost over [15] - Investment strategy: The main contract of Shanghai silver below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors can adopt the "buy on dips and build positions step - by - step" strategy to establish long positions. Silver is expected to resume its upward trend in August, and investors should seize the current buying opportunity [17][18]

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. Treasury yields showed signs of decline. The market is waiting for the meeting's outcome. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates or if Fed Chair Powell is removed, it will be beneficial for the gold price. The silver price has reached a record high, but the photovoltaic sector's weakness may suppress it in the future [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions - **Futures**: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the previous trading day. The Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 9,195 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the previous trading day [2] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: On July 29, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.42%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.48%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.2 Position and Volume Changes - **Last Trading Day's Volume**: The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 275,105 lots, down 16.66% from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts was 738,850 lots, down 52.79% from the previous trading day [4] - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 956.23 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15,173.92 tons [5] 3.3 Arbitrage Tracking - **Spot-Futures Spread**: On July 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -1.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -680.01 yuan/kg [6] - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 83.90, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Shanghai Gold Exchange**: On July 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold was 37,834 kg, up 9.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 461,672 kg, down 27.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,762 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,900 kg [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price remains in a sideways pattern, and the gold-silver ratio has normalized due to the increase in market risk sentiment. The upcoming Fed interest rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market if the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates. The potential removal of Fed Chairman Powell could increase safe-haven demand and benefit the gold price. It is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The silver price has reached a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. However, due to its high volatility, attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss. The weakening photovoltaic sector may also suppress the silver price in the future. It is recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. - It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - It is advisable to put options on hold [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment firm led by Trump's ally to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury significantly raised its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, slightly alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties and causing precious metals to weaken slightly. The US and the EU are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed interest rate meeting is approaching, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [1] 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.82 yuan/gram and closed at 774.78 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 770.84 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,350 yuan/kg and closed at 9,212 yuan/kg, down 1.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,203,307 lots, and the open interest was 398,421 lots. The night session closed at 9,200 yuan/kg, down 0.27% from the afternoon session [2] 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 28, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 51%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.4 SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On July 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 939 lots, and the short positions decreased by 41 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 330,092 lots, down 45.61% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,184 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,086 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contract was 1,564,987 lots, down 39.34% from the previous trading day [4] 3.5 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] 3.6 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.52 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -513.64 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.11, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.7 Fundamental Data - On July 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D market was 34,706 kg, down 36.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 637,268 kg, down 44.82% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,848 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The silver price has been strong recently, hitting a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If market risk sentiment rebounds, it will be relatively beneficial for silver. The operation for both gold and silver is mainly to buy on dips for hedging. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 784.84 yuan/gram, a change of 0.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 788.50 yuan/gram and closed at 792.94 yuan/gram, up 0.91% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,301.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,393.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 1.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 961,563 lots, and the open interest was 476,010 lots. The night session opened at 9,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,453 yuan/kilogram, up 0.75% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 22, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year was 0.52%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract on July 22, 2025, the long positions changed by -1,071 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,243 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 290,023 lots, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, on the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -2,522 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,835 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,238,108 lots, a change of 40.57% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 954.80 tons the previous day, an increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, an increase of 152.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 22, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -5.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -853.24 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange the previous day was about 83.56, a change of -0.90% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.41, a change of -0.67% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On July 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,546 kilograms, a change of 23.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 537,430 kilograms, a change of 78.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,208 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 26,070 kilograms [7]