（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 光大证券指出，港股整体盈利能力相对较强，结合当前估值仍偏低，长期配置性价比仍较高。近期恒生 指数已突破前期高点，在国内稳增长政策持续发力下，港股市场未来或继续震荡上行。建议继续关注高 股息低波动策略，包括通信、公用事业、银行等行业，高股息策略仍可作为稳定收益的底仓。 红利港股ETF（159331）跟踪的是港股通高股息指数（930914），该指数由港股上市且可通过港股通交 易的高股息股票组成，侧重于筛选具备稳定分红能力的上市公司证券。其成分股覆盖多个行业，尤其侧 重金融、地产等传统高分红领域，旨在反映港股市场高股息资产的整体表现。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of high dividend strategies amidst rising uncertainty, suggesting a focus on stable dividend stocks over cyclical ones due to their defensive attributes and ability to provide predictable returns [1] - The report highlights that the global demand and the turning point for domestic "real estate + infrastructure" have not yet arrived, indicating a cautious outlook for these sectors [1] - It recommends stable dividend stocks, such as those in banking and public utilities, as a primary investment strategy during the current market phase, especially in a low interest rate environment [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (510720) tracks the Shangguo Dividend Index (000151), which selects listed companies with strong dividend records, covering traditional industries that focus on stable returns and value investment [1] - For investors without stock accounts, it suggests considering the Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF Initiated Link A (021701) and Link C (021702) as alternative investment options [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment opportunity in the Hong Kong dividend ETF (159331), suggesting that high dividend strategies may become a preferred allocation choice due to the strong profitability of the Hong Kong stock market and the relatively low valuations of certain sectors [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively strong, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals being relatively scarce [1] - The Hang Seng Index has recently surpassed previous highs, indicating minimal upward resistance, and the market may continue to trend upward due to ongoing domestic growth policies [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - High dividend and low volatility strategies are recommended, particularly in sectors such as telecommunications, public utilities, and banking [1] - The Hong Kong dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects companies with stable dividend records and high dividend yields from the investable range of the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of Hong Kong listed companies under a high dividend strategy, providing investors with a stable income source focused on yield [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that there are mixed signals regarding the A-share market, with some institutions predicting significant growth while others express caution about potential corrections [2][3][4] - A screenshot circulating in the market claims that Shenwan Strategy is optimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 8000 points, indicating a bull market [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan's chief strategist Wang Sheng denied the authenticity of the circulating information but affirmed a positive long-term outlook for the Chinese stock market [3] Group 2 - Since April, the A-share market has been on an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points on July 24 [4] - Multiple institutions predict a "slow bull" market, with China International Capital Corporation suggesting that the index may experience narrow fluctuations before stabilizing and rising [4] - Zheshang Securities believes that the target for the Shanghai Composite Index may extend beyond the previous high of 3674 points, indicating potential for continued upward movement [4] Group 3 - Tongtai Fund's internal communication suggested a target of 10,000 points for the A-share market, with projections indicating a 35% upside based on a zero-growth model and a 194% upside based on a stable growth model [3] - The projected dividend amount for A-shares in 2024 is estimated at 2.39 trillion, which is a key factor in the valuation models presented [3] - The market is expected to exhibit characteristics of "rotating supplementary gains," with a focus on high dividend strategies and long-term opportunities in "new productive forces" [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market's high dividend sectors, particularly banks, present investment value due to the weak US dollar and continuous inflow of southbound funds [1] - Insurance capital, as a major source of southbound funds, prefers bank stocks for their stable high dividend characteristics, benefiting from their "quasi-bond" advantage, low volatility, and tax exemptions on dividends [1] - The financial sector has become a core holding for southbound funds, accounting for 19% of their portfolio, as the current low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of high dividend strategies [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a representative of core RMB assets, with potential for valuation recovery due to the narrowing of "country risk premium" and the rising pricing power of domestic capital [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects high dividend yield securities from eligible listed companies to reflect the overall performance of high dividend stocks in Hong Kong [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the banking sector in Hong Kong, particularly focusing on the stability of bank earnings and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the industry [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Bank Performance**: The banking sector has experienced fluctuations due to profit-taking and shifts in market focus, but some banks have outperformed the industry due to high dividend yields and thematic investments [1][3]. - **Earnings Stability**: It is expected that the second quarter earnings for banks will show stability, with profit growth close to zero. Banks like Hangzhou and Changshu have reported slight improvements in revenue and stable profit levels [1][4][5]. - **Loan Growth**: There has been a slight decline in loan growth for listed banks in the second quarter, but credit allocation in key regions remains strong. The pricing on the asset side is stable, and the cost of liabilities continues to improve [1][6]. - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income is anticipated to improve in the second quarter due to a recovery in capital market activity and a low base effect from the previous quarter [1][7]. - **Asset Quality**: As of the end of the second quarter, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for Hangzhou and Changshu banks remained stable, with manageable pressure on retail asset quality [1][8]. - **A-Share Banks**: The revenue growth for A-share listed banks is expected to show a slight improvement, with a projected revenue growth rate of around -1% for the second quarter of 2025 [1][9]. Additional Important Content - **Dividend Yield**: The absolute dividend advantage of bank stocks has weakened slightly, but H-shares of major banks like CCB, ICBC, and BOC still maintain yields above 5%, making them attractive compared to 10-year government bonds [2][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: It is recommended to focus on H-shares with yields above 5%, particularly CCB, BOC, and ICBC, as well as other commercial banks like Everbright and CITIC [10][11]. - **Potential Catalysts and Risks**: The high dividend strategy is expected to continue, but further catalysts will depend on macroeconomic conditions and credit stability. There is a need to monitor fund flows and stock price movements for potential risks [12][13]. - **Market Adjustments**: Recent market adjustments are attributed to profit-taking and sector rotation, but the banking sector is expected to maintain a stable foundation for earnings [13]. - **High Dividend Strategy**: The high dividend strategy remains attractive due to the need for stable, high-yield investments, particularly from insurance and new capital inflows [14][15]. - **Future Support for Banking Sector**: Long-term capital from insurance and asset management companies is expected to support the banking sector, with significant investments in undervalued, high-dividend stocks [15][16]. - **Fund Flows**: Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector, with notable increases in positions in major banks [16][17]. - **Southbound and Northbound Capital**: Southbound capital has been actively flowing into Hong Kong bank stocks, indicating strong market confidence in high-dividend banking stocks [18]. Recommendations for Banking Stocks - Recommended stocks include major state-owned banks like CCB, BOC, and ICBC, as well as commercial banks like Everbright and CITIC, focusing on their high dividend yields and stable fundamentals [19]. Insurance Sector Overview - The insurance sector has seen significant market performance, with A-share and Hong Kong insurance indices showing substantial gains [22]. - The outlook for insurance companies is mixed, with some companies experiencing growth in new business premiums while others face challenges due to changing market conditions [23][24]. - Recommendations for insurance stocks include those with strong asset performance and potential for profit release, such as New China Life and PICC [27]. Market Environment for Hong Kong Stock Exchange - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has seen a significant increase in trading volume and IPO activity, with a strong outlook for future performance [30][31]. - The exchange's revenue is primarily driven by trading fees, investment income, and listing fees, with expectations for continued growth in these areas [32][33].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations last week (July 14 to July 18), with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.28%, indicating a defensive advantage in undervalued blue-chip stocks [2] - The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext 50 indices all rose over 1%, reflecting investor preference for small-cap and technology stocks [2] - The Wind first-level average index increased by 0.76%, with 80% of the Wind top 100 concept indices showing gains, particularly in the communication, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors, which rose by 7.56%, 4.00%, and 3.28% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 30 funds were issued last week, including 20 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, 3 bond funds, and 1 FOF fund, with total issuance of 21.485 billion units [3][4] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.36% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 3.00% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 3.06% [4][7] - The performance of major asset classes showed most global assets increased, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the gains in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The domestic bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond futures contract declining by 0.02% [11] Industry Performance - The healthcare sector led the gains with a 3.93% increase, followed by information technology at 2.98%, while financials and real estate sectors showed weakness, with declines of 0.76% and 2.00% respectively [10]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is currently under pressure, but the market's preference for high dividend strategies is driving a notable upward trend in bank stocks. The release of policy dividends, along with increased participation from insurance funds, active funds, and passive funds, is expected to provide stable incremental capital for bank stocks, enhancing the sustainability of valuation recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Current Banking Fundamentals - The banking sector's fundamentals are still under pressure but show signs of marginal improvement. The net interest margin is expected to decline significantly less in 2025 due to the expiration of high-interest liabilities and a slowdown in loan pricing declines. The estimated net interest margins for state-owned and joint-stock banks are projected to be 1.34% and 1.55%, respectively, down 12 and 9 basis points from the end of 2024 [2]. - The asset quality is expected to improve while remaining stable. As of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was recorded at 1.51%, only slightly up by 1 basis point from the end of 2024. The provision coverage ratio stands at 208%, down 3.06 percentage points, indicating ample room above the regulatory requirement of 150% [2]. Group 2: Valuation Recovery and Market Dynamics - The core logic driving the current market rally is the valuation recovery fueled by the funding environment. This trend is expected to continue, supported by low interest rates and an asset shortage, which highlight the advantages of high dividends and quasi-fixed income characteristics of bank stocks. As of July 11, the banking sector's dividend yield was 4.87%, significantly enhancing its investment appeal due to stable dividends and sound operations [3]. - Continuous inflow of incremental capital is driving a noticeable recovery in bank stock valuations. Policies such as the introduction of mid- to long-term capital into the market and new regulations for public funds have significantly increased the demand for bank stock allocations. As of July 11, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.75, indicating substantial room for recovery towards a PB of 1 [3].

证券研究报告 2025年07月18日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 银行 银行投资跟踪：如何看待银行股价和基本面的背离？ 作者： 分析师 刘杰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523110002 联系人 曹旭冉 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 风险提示：宏观经济震荡、不良风险大幅上升、净息差下行压力加大、测算结果可能与现实情况存在差异。 2 ➢ 复盘历史，银行股价和基本面长期存在"背离"现象。这或是因为，在经济上行周期中，银行基本面表现较好，但银行股相较于其他高成 长板块可能缺乏对资金的吸引力；而在宏观经济表现相对承压时，银行基本面有所承压，银行板块的防御属性突出，反而拥有超额收益。 ➢ 目前银行基本面仍然承压，但市场偏好高股息策略下涨势亮眼。2025Q1商业银行净利润同比负增2.32%，较去年同期增速低2.97pct。而 银行股估值正攀升至近年较高水平，截止7月11日，银行板块PB为0.75倍，处于近十年50%的历史分位数水平。 ➢ 当前银行基本面持续筑底，但仍有边际改善。具体而言： • 一方面，受益于存量高息负债集中到期和贷款定价下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and strategy of the TaiKang New Opportunities Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (001910) for Q2 2025, indicating a profit of 66.99 million yuan and a net asset value growth rate of 4.53% [3]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 1.219 yuan, with a three-month return of 7.43%, a six-month return of 7.37%, a one-year return of 2.77%, and a three-year return of -2.46% [4]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.0046, ranking 473 out of 875 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 23.98%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 24.41% [12]. Fund Strategy - The fund manager emphasizes a strategy focused on low valuation and high dividend stocks, prioritizing companies with strong free cash flow and sustainable dividends [3]. - The fund has adjusted its portfolio by reducing exposure to overvalued cyclical and resource stocks while increasing allocation to H-shares in the financial, utilities, and automotive sectors [3]. - The fund aims to maintain resilience during challenging market conditions by holding quality companies with cash flow advantages and stable growth potential [3]. Fund Composition - As of June 30, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 82.03%, compared to the industry average of 80.32% [15]. - The fund's top holdings include major banks and companies such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Mobile [20]. - The fund's total size as of the end of Q2 2025 was 1.546 billion yuan [17].