有朋友问螺丝钉，能不能针对 全球股票指数、美债指数等 ， 做个估值表。 目前内地能买到的、投资海外市场的基金品种不多。 不过在海外这些品种比较丰富。 可以先从指数估值的角度，了解海外市场不同品种的估值情况。 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。 也新增了美股场内的美债ETF指数的估值。 如果觉得这个估值表 有需要 ， 后续每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 海外市场指数数量很多，后面大家 有希望增加的品种 ，可以反馈给螺丝钉。 目前螺丝钉后台系统，已经覆盖海外主流的几百只指数品种。 1. 本周全球股票市场继续下跌。 美股市场连续第4周下跌。 美股全市场指数本周下跌2.2%。 欧洲股票市场本周也微跌。 本周人民币资产整体上涨，A股也上涨。 今年港股表现排到全球第一。 A股涨幅暂时落后于港股，但放在全球也排在前列了。 2. 有朋友问，美股下跌后，纳斯达克等指数回到低估了么？ 最近几年，美股成长股，主要是在2018年、2020年、2022年短期下跌较多的时候，出现过低估机会。 3. 其实美股目前也有一些品种已经回到低估。 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 率比女性更高，持有时间更短，最终导致 男性的平均收益低于同年龄段的女性。 例如60后的交易频率就比80后低。 年纪大了之后，体内激素水平下降，人也 就没有那么冲动了，也会更有耐心做长期 投资。 其实女性、年长者收益高，只是表面的统 计结果。 有意思的是，男性的交易频率，并不是始 终都很高。 背后的原因，是不折腾，拿得住。 随着男性的年龄增长，交易频率会降低, 会跟女性趋同。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 好品种+好价格+长期持有，做到这些，那 收益都不会差的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of a safety margin, shaped by both external experiences and personal characteristics, particularly a low risk tolerance [1][4]. Group 1: Safety Margin Concept - Safety margin is defined as the ability to accept a less optimistic scenario for a company's future performance, ensuring that even in adverse conditions, the investment remains protected [3]. - The approach to investment involves either confronting the complexities of the business world directly or considering the worst-case scenarios to establish a safety margin [3]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy does not rely on being smarter than the market but focuses on gathering sufficient and reliable information for decision-making [6][7]. - The pursuit of "ten-bagger" stocks is discouraged, as identifying such stocks in advance is rare; instead, the focus should be on achieving a high long-term internal rate of return [8][9]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Emotional Management - Market volatility is acknowledged as inevitable, and the importance of analyzing substantial policy changes and their long-term impacts on stock value is highlighted [15]. - Emotional control is crucial, and practical strategies to mitigate emotional disturbances during market fluctuations are recommended, such as reducing exposure to market information [16]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Conditions - Successful long-term investing relies more on the characteristics of the investor's capital, such as patience and the ability to endure market fluctuations, rather than solely on market conditions [12][13]. - The complexity of the investment landscape necessitates a deep understanding of the market and the investor's psychological readiness for long-term commitments [12][13]. Group 5: Alpha vs. Beta - The distinction between alpha (excess returns from specific assets) and beta (market-wide trends) is emphasized, with a warning against mistaking beta for alpha [17][18]. - The focus should be on identifying alpha opportunities across various industries rather than concentrating on specific sectors during certain market cycles [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the pilot program for long-term stock investments by insurance funds is expected to provide substantial mid-to-long-term capital to the market and strengthen the institutional investor base [2][3]. Summary by Sections Pilot Program Expansion - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved an additional 600 billion yuan for long-term investment reform trials, bringing the total approved amount for the year to 1,120 billion yuan [3]. - Five insurance companies, including China Life and New China Life, are involved in this latest approval, which aims to enhance the long-term investment capabilities of insurance funds [3]. Fund Performance and Strategy - The "Honghu Fund," established by China Life and New China Life, focuses on investing in key industries and high-quality listed companies, achieving a balance of effectiveness, safety, and liquidity [4]. - The fund has been operational for over a year and has shown promising returns, with a continued positive outlook on stock market investments [4]. Mechanism Flexibility - The second batch of pilot programs allows for more flexible mechanisms, enabling single or joint establishment of private equity funds by insurance companies [5]. - This flexibility is seen as a response to policy guidance and is beneficial for equity investments [5]. Long-term Investment Impact - The pilot program is expected to optimize the structure of listed companies by attracting investments towards those with competitive advantages and good governance, while less favorable companies may gradually exit the market [9]. - The long-term investment approach is anticipated to reduce market volatility, leading to a healthier and more stable market environment [9]. Demonstration Effect - The successful implementation of the Honghu Fund serves as a model for insurance institutions to establish private equity funds, supporting the sustained and stable development of the capital market [10].

基金上涨却被投资者冷落的现象，是他们的理性抉择还是盲目恐慌？值得市场各方深入思考。 基金上涨却遭投资者冷落 开年以来，偏股型基金延续2024年涨势，如偏股混合型基金指数创造了2023年9月以来新高。 近一年来看，超1400只偏股型基金净值涨幅超过20%，正收益基金产品数量占比高达85%，基金赚钱效应明显 好转。 此外，一些北交所、科创板、高端装备、机器人等主题基金净值屡创历史新高。数据还显示，2024年成立的偏 股型基金中，有570余只基金的净值在今年2月份创造历史新高。 不过，在基金市场却出现了一种颇为反常的现象：基金上涨却难获投资者芳心。尽管不少基金净值一路攀升， 业绩表现亮眼，投资者却陆续选择离场。 基金市场再度上演越涨越赎一幕。 近期，偏股混合型基金指数创造了2023年9月以来新高，部分近2年成立的偏股型基金陆续实现净值新高，其间 购入基金的投资者陆续实现盈利。 不过，让基金行业人员纳闷的是，基金涨势之下，不少投资者却选择离场，包括此前被大量认购的股票型ETF 也未能延续"吸金"趋势，开年以来获资金净流出近600亿元。 2024年9月以来，主动权益基金业绩开始出现触底反弹迹象。不过，主动权益基金在20 ...

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 2016年，我写了一篇《观念总是用来打破的》，开篇第一句是：世界上有很多你认为是真理的东西，可能 就是谬误。很多观念，都会随着时间的无尽延伸而改变。 在2024-25年除旧迎新之际，DeepSeek横空出世，它以更高效、更低成本的方式惊艳AI世界，其在架构设 计、算法优化方面的创新，极大提高了资源的利用率，一下子缩短了中美之间在AI方面的距离，且在一定 程度上 打破了美国在这一领域的技术垄断 ，导致英伟达等AI类股票大幅下跌。DeepSeek实质上就是思维方 式的创新，或者观念上的颠覆。 近期有些欧美投研机构开始看好中概股和A股，认为应该重估中国的科技实力和先进制造业的发展潜力。春 节之后，A股和港股的走强，反映了投资者对中国经济前景的预期转强。 当中国制造业增加值占全球份额提升一个百分点的情况下，中国制造业高端化的趋势或许势不可挡。 西方 国家长期来通过"技术垄断溢价"和"品牌溢价"获取超额利润的模式正遇到越来越大的挑战 。相信只要给予 足够多的时间，技术垄断是可以被打破的；甚至西方奢侈品的"品牌溢价"也可能走弱。 无论是目前最顶尖光刻机还是航 ...