Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 5525.21 points, up 4.59% from last week's 5282.70 points, but down 6.06% year-to-date [1] - Out of the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 10 sectors increased this week, compared to only 5 sectors last week [1] - The Information Technology sector was the best-performing sector this week, rising by 7.93%, while it has decreased by 11.92% year-to-date [1] - The Consumer Discretionary sector rose by 7.44% this week, but it has fallen by 13.72% year-to-date, making it the worst-performing sector [1] - The Communication Services sector increased by 6.36%, with a year-to-date decline of 6.12% [1] Group 2: Economic Data - The April manufacturing PMI composite preview report was 50.7, above the expected 50.2, while the services index was 51.4, below the expected 52.5 and down from 54.4 previously [2] - March new home sales were at an annual rate of 724,000, exceeding the expectation of 682,000, and up from 674,000 in February [2] - The final consumer confidence index for April was 52.5, down from 57.0 in March, and the annual inflation expectation decreased from 6.7% to 6.5% [2] - Mortgage applications fell by 12.7%, with purchase applications down 6.6% and refinancing applications down 20.9% [2] - The EIA reported an increase of 200,000 barrels in U.S. oil inventories, following a previous increase of 500,000 barrels [2] - The latest weekly unemployment claims report showed 222,000 claims, consistent with expectations, and the total number of people receiving unemployment insurance rose to 1.841 million [2] Group 3: Earnings Reports - The earnings season continues, with 180 stocks (accounting for 35.6% of market capitalization) reporting earnings, of which 75% exceeded expectations and 63% had sales above expectations [2] - Earnings are expected to decline by 3.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [2]

当代年轻人理财，总在"躺平"和"氪金"之间反复横跳。在股市里，韭菜们还在为 "关灯吃面" 的段子自嘲时，黄金市场早已开启了一场低调的 财富保卫战。自从2024年现货黄金价格如脱缰野马般冲破 3000 美元 / 盎司，这场逆袭，让全球投资者集体见证了什么叫 "物理属性的浪漫"。 当今世界，地缘政治局势复杂多变，地区冲突、贸易摩擦等因素此起彼伏。这些地缘风险事件的发生，使得市场避险情绪不断升温，投资者们 纷纷将目光投向黄金，从而推动了黄金价格的上涨。但传统黄金投资的高门槛，曾让普通投资者望而却步。实物金条需要成百上千美元起步， 纸黄金的流动性差，就连期货交易也得掏出数万元保证金。 直到万洲金业带着 "双低战略" 闯入市场，入金门槛降至 70 美元，点差压缩至20 美元/ 手，还全免交易佣金。更值得一提的是，万洲金业自主 研发的 MT5 智能交易系统，能像雷达一样实时捕捉全球市场波动，毫秒级执行交易指令。当其他平台还在为 "滑点" 问题焦头烂额时，万洲金 业的 "无滑点执行" 技术，配合多空双向操作和智能止盈止损，即使是刚入行的小白，也能在黄金市场的惊涛骇浪中稳稳掌舵。 当股票还在为某CEO发条推特玩蹦极时，黄金早 ...

美国的劳动力市场表现依然稳健。美国劳工部称，上周初请失业金人数增加0.6万人，达到22.2万人，但 四周均值下降了750人，至22.02万人，这是过去五周的第四次下降。接下来，市场正密切关注即将公布 的4月非农就业报告。 不过，企业正面临更大压力。标普4月美国综合采购经理人指数（PMI）降至16个月低位51.2，逼近荣 枯线。其中，占经济重要地位的服务业指数从上个月的54.4跌至4月的51.4。标普全球首席商业经济学家 威廉姆森（Chris Williamson）表示："人们对未来一年商业状况的信心急剧恶化。关税被认为是价格上 涨的主要原因。" 与此同时，通胀预期居高不下。密歇根大学消费者调查显示，一年期通胀预期为6.5%，为1981年以来 的最高水平。长期通胀预期也达到4.4%，处于上世纪90年代以来高位。 分析人士认为，特朗普不断变化的关税政策造成的日益增长的经济不确定性正在侵蚀商业和消费者信 心，这可能会削弱支出并导致失业。美联储经济状况褐皮书报告显示，几个地区报告称，企业对就业采 取观望态度，比如暂停或放缓招聘，直到经济状况更加明朗。 伦交所数据显示，4月以来资金向非美市场流动的趋势有所放缓。 上周美 ...

美国4月密歇根大学1年通胀预期终值 6.5，预期 6.8，初值 6.7。 ...

美国里士满联储主席巴尔金（2027年FOMC票委）：通胀预期可能已经放松。 ...

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：商品涨跌互现，金价再创新高 国家统计局公布数据，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4% ，环比增长 1.2% 。 3 月规模以上工业增加 值同比实际增长 7.7% ，装备制造业和高技术制造业较快增长，新能源汽车继续保持高速增长态势。由 于汽车购买量大幅增加，美国 3 月零售销售环比增长 1.4% ，增幅创两年多来最大，表明消费者正赶在 惩罚性汽车关税之前购买汽车。但随着特朗普推进关税，一些通胀预期指标飙升，削弱了美国人对自己 财务状况的看法，低收入消费者已面临困境，而较富裕的消费者则受到股市抛售打击，这给支出前景蒙 上了阴影。现货黄金史上首次站上 3300 美元 / 盎司，日内暴涨 70 美元，涨幅超 2% 。受金价大幅波动 影响，部分投资者选择囤货待涨。 重点品种： 橡胶、原油、 贵金属 橡胶 ：周三橡胶走势回落，国内产区气候较好，产区逐步开割，泰国减产季即将结束。青岛地区总库 存持续增加，库存周期转变较为明显，美关税政策影响短期反复，预计仍将延续，关税政策本质上对原 料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路径仍存在不确定性，消费端分析逻辑可能 ...

美国3月纽约联储1年通胀预期将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the steel products industry is "sideways consolidation" [3] - The rating for the aluminum industry is "expected short - term range adjustment" [4] Report's Core View - The steel products market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. It is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner [3] - The aluminum market has a complex situation. Although the inventory decline strengthens the fundamental support, the tariff policy is uncertain, the overseas demand is suppressed, and the price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Steel Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - **Market Situation**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Viewpoint**: The steel products market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - **Inventory**: On April 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from Monday and 21,000 tons from last Thursday. The overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [3] - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1%. Some recycled aluminum plants reduced their April operating levels due to order reduction and inventory pressure, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand and export - oriented die - casting enterprises' orders. China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal [3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

智通财经4月13日电，美联储卡什卡利表示，美联储所能做的一切就是让通胀处于可控范围并稳定住通 胀预期。 ...

【导读】美联储喊话安抚市场 特朗普关税政策引发美国股债汇"三杀"之后，美联储首次公开安抚市场。 美联储"救市" 4月12日，波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯表示，如果有必要，美联储已准备好动用工具来稳定金融市场。尽管当前市场状况运作良好，柯林斯强 调，一旦出现流动性紧张或市场运行问题，联储将做好干预准备。 她的这番讲话正值市场因特朗普总统的贸易战和对经济衰退的担忧而动荡之际。柯林斯指出，尽管美联储会考虑采取紧急措施，但降息不会是应对流动性 问题的首选方式，联储还有其他常设机制可用于支持市场运作。 苏珊·柯林斯表示，尽管近日金融市场出现波动，但目前尚未对投资者正常交易的能力造成干扰。不过，美联储拥有可以应对市场失灵状况的工具。 她在当地时间周五接受采访时表示："市场仍在良好运作。这是我们正在密切关注的事情，未来也会继续关注。当然，我们还有其他工具可以用来应对市 场运作方面的问题，如果这类问题出现，我们将做好介入的准备。但再次强调，目前我们尚未看到这样的迹象。" 柯林斯指出，她最关注的是防止因关税引发的一次性成本冲击导致公众形成长期高通胀的预期。她表示："那将是一个令人担忧的局面。这种情况下应当 推迟降息。" ...