怎么看当下国产算力行情 20250812 摘要 寒武纪为什么能够大涨？ 寒武纪的大涨主要建立在中美关系及相关政策背景之下。从 7 月下旬到现在， 市场情绪很大程度上源于对 H20 是否能够出货的预期。虽然传言放开采购，但 国务院 AI 行动意见、网信办约谈后门问题以及人民日报发文都指向对 H20 的 限制。8 月 8 日，美国正式批准向中国出口 HR 芯片，并要求上交在华销售 7 月份以来，WAIC 大会释放积极信号，国内头部互联网厂商资本开支 意愿明显提升，新增先进制程产能陆续上线、NPU 生产良率提升以及服 务器交付情况相比上半年明显改善，都表明供给端正在逐步改善。 先进封装领域由于国产 GPU 放量存在强劲补涨机会，首推永新电子，该 公司正在验厂，一旦通过将迎来巨大空间，稳泰假设每年出货 1,000 万 颗国产 GPU，公司 20%份额、20%净利润则可产生 10 亿利润。 15%的芯片。这进一步压缩了 H20 的生存空间，使得国产替代风向不变。此 外，今年寒武纪最大的变量在于 n 加 2 良率爬坡和持续扩展，预计明年产能充 沛，新品逻辑带动估值重塑，有望逐步达到 5,000 亿市值。 AI 芯片环节有 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai showcased the growing interest in the AI industry from academia, industry, and investors, reflecting a significant shift in focus since the first conference in 2018 [3][4] - The AI landscape is evolving with a shift from homogeneous models to differentiated products, as companies face increasing competition and seek to maintain core advantages [6][7] - Traditional internet giants like Alibaba and Tencent are promoting full-stack AI capabilities, integrating AI models into comprehensive solutions to lower barriers for enterprises [10] Group 1: AI Model Development - The competition among large model companies has intensified, leading to a focus on differentiated product strategies, such as long text processing and multi-modal capabilities [6] - The boundaries between "model" and "application" are blurring, with model companies transitioning to comprehensive AI platforms that integrate various technologies [7] - The emergence of open-source models like DeepSeek R1 is reshaping the competitive landscape, prompting companies to explore new business models [6][7] Group 2: Cloud and AI Integration - Established cloud providers are building AI ecosystems around their models, offering one-stop AI solutions that enhance the accessibility of AI capabilities for enterprises [10] - The shift towards public cloud platforms for AI capabilities is driven by the challenges of private cloud deployment, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [10] - The integration of AI modules into existing cloud infrastructures is expected to reshape asset valuation logic in the long term [10] Group 3: Domestic Computing Power - Domestic computing power was prominently featured at the conference, with Huawei showcasing its Ascend 384 super node, which boasts double the computing power of NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 system [13] - Domestic GPUs are increasingly competitive, although challenges remain in memory bandwidth and interconnect capabilities [14] - The demand for private AI deployment is driving innovation in AI integrated machines, reflecting a strong market need [15] Group 4: Edge AI Development - The WAIC highlighted the innovative potential of edge AI, though the commercialization paths for these products remain limited [18] - Key areas for improvement in edge AI include multi-modal perception and decision-making capabilities, which are critical for applications like robotics and AR [18] - The smartphone is positioned as a likely platform for AI agents due to its proximity to users and strong computational capabilities, although industry caution regarding technology maturity persists [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the AI application-driven demand for computing power, indicating a sustained high growth trajectory in the industry [2]. Core Insights - The computing power industry is experiencing a resonance between domestic and international supply chains, with a continuous high demand for computing power from overseas [2]. - The report highlights that the domestic computing power supply chain is in a tight balance, with key bottlenecks gradually being addressed over time, leading to ongoing positive catalysts in the market [2]. - Investment opportunities in domestic computing power are expected to emerge in the second half of the year and into the next year [2]. Summary by Sections Overseas Computing Power Supply Chain Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-end PCB, optical modules, and server ODM sectors, which are expected to maintain high profitability and a tight supply-demand balance [3]. High-end PCB Industry Opportunities - The report discusses the transition from copper cable solutions to orthogonal backplane solutions in NVIDIA's Rubin series, which is expected to enhance design and operational efficiency [6]. - The orthogonal backplane solution involves three 26-layer PCB boards, with a single cabinet requiring approximately four backplanes, valued at 200,000 to 300,000 yuan each [6]. - Domestic manufacturers with capabilities in copper paste sintering are likely to become core suppliers, with recommendations to focus on companies like Shenzhen South Circuit (002916), Jingwang Electronics (603228), and Dongshan Precision (002384) [6]. Liquid Cooling Industry Opportunities - Domestic liquid cooling leader Y Company has entered Meta's supply chain, providing key components with an initial market share of approximately 5-8% [5]. - The report anticipates accelerated penetration of liquid cooling in AI servers, driven by the promotion of NVIDIA's Rubin series and Google's TPU servers [5]. - Companies such as Invec (002837) and Chuanhuan Technology (300547) are recommended for investment [5]. Domestic Computing Power Supply Chain - The report emphasizes investment in core computing hardware companies like Cambricon (688256) and foundries like SMIC (0981.HK) [7]. - The report notes that due to geopolitical considerations, ByteDance has paused its ASIC chip design project with Broadcom and is now working with domestic design service providers [7]. Traditional Analog Chip Recovery Opportunities - The analog chip sector is benefiting from domestic substitution and local-for-local demand, with wafer fab utilization rates remaining high and terminal prices increasing by 10-20% [9]. - Companies such as Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK), Naxin Micro (688052), and Sireen (688536) are highlighted for investment opportunities [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) and Cambricon (688256), among others, while noting that several companies remain unrated [10][12].

Group 1 - The technology sector is recommended as a key focus area until August 2025, driven by the positive trends in the AI industry chain and the current surge in software applications, indicating potential for further growth in domestic computing power and AI applications [1] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, particularly innovative drugs, have shown significant price increases, with a long-term positive trend and some companies still having room for valuation recovery compared to their 2020 peaks [1] - The defense and military industry is expected to receive continuous catalysts, with the current fundamentals and confidence in the military sector being better than in historical years, driven more by fundamental factors than calendar effects [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Science and Technology Innovation Index ETF (589630) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation Index (000680), which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%, covering nearly 97% of the market capitalization of the Science and Technology Innovation Board [1] - The index emphasizes technological innovation and growth, with a balanced industry distribution aimed at reflecting the overall performance of the Science and Technology Innovation Board market [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive ETF Initiated Link A (023733) and Link C (023734) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that the technology sector is expected to see a rebound, particularly driven by the AI industry chain and improvements in domestic computing power [1] - The Biopharmaceutical sector, especially innovative drugs, has shown significant growth, with a 21% increase from July 1 to August 1, indicating a long-term positive trend [1] - The defense and military industry is anticipated to receive continuous stimulation ahead of the upcoming military parade on September 3 [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Science and Technology Innovation Index ETF (589630) has risen over 1.3%, reflecting the growing interest in the technology sector [1] - The index tracks approximately 97% of the market capitalization of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology and biomedicine [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider Guotai's linked ETFs, which provide access to the Science and Technology Innovation Board [1]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin and US President Trump will meet on August 15 in Alaska to discuss a long-term peace plan for Ukraine [1] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its stance on normal trade and energy cooperation with countries including Russia, in response to potential tariffs from the US on Chinese purchases of Russian oil [1] - Beijing's housing authority announced new policies allowing families to purchase unlimited numbers of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road starting from August 9, 2025 [1] Group 2 - YuTree Technology's founder Wang Xingxing highlighted that the main issue in robotics is the model problem, with a focus on large models, low-cost hardware, and computing power in the next 2-5 years [2] - The humanoid robot shipment volume is expected to double annually in the coming years [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities noted that insurance stocks possess dual dividend attributes, with large insurance companies showing a narrowing duration gap due to better asset-liability matching [5] - The current liquidity-driven revaluation trend in the market is expected to continue in the medium term, with certain sectors like domestic computing, consumer electronics, and AI being highlighted for their potential [5] - Companies like Jianchuang Vision and Shiyun Circuit are making strategic moves, such as changing control and increasing investments, indicating active corporate restructuring [4]

Market Performance - The overall market rose in July, with the full A-share index increasing by 4.75% and a median increase of 2.58% across A-shares [1] - The ChiNext index, CSI 500, CSI 2000, CSI 1000, STAR 50, CSI 300, and SSE 50 saw increases of 8.14%, 5.26%, 5.11%, 4.8%, 4.43%, 3.54%, and 2.36% respectively [1] - The steel, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors led the gains, while banking, electricity and public utilities, and transportation sectors lagged [1] - The average daily trading volume in July was 1.63 trillion, a 22% increase from June, indicating further market liquidity [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In the U.S., high-frequency economic data has been significantly revised downwards, with non-farm payrolls and PDFP both falling below expectations [2] - Despite previous comments from Powell focusing on employment and inflation, the expectation for a rate cut in September remains due to data revisions and political pressures [2] - In China, major economic indicators showed good performance in the first half of the year, with a focus on high-quality development and potential policy adjustments in the second half [2] - The commodity sector, previously undervalued, is expected to see a systematic rebound in PPI, presenting investment opportunities [2] Industry Trends - Overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and finance have entered a phase of correction and differentiation after previous gains [3] - Strong quarterly reports and capital expenditures in the overseas computing sector have been priced into stock prices, necessitating stronger catalysts for top stocks [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen strong momentum due to recent BD catalysts, prompting a selective profit-taking strategy [3] - Future focus areas include military industry, AI applications, domestic computing power, and consumer sectors, with military and AI applications expected to see significant catalysts in the near term [3] Trading Structure - The market turnover rate increased in July, with electronic, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metals sectors showing the highest growth [4] - Conversely, the light industry manufacturing, oil and petrochemicals, and food and beverage sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Strategic Outlook - The overall investment strategy is becoming more aggressive, focusing on growth sectors and deeply exploring cyclical industries at the bottom [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuke, is actively collaborating with several mainstream domestic GPU manufacturers to adapt and enhance its capabilities in the domestic computing power card sector, particularly focusing on AI customer needs [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Yuke has established deep cooperation with companies like TianShu ZhiXin in the domestic GPU field [1] - The company has developed a general-purpose GPU computing power base that effectively supports the computing power demands of AI clients [1] - Yuke aims to assist domestic computing power enterprises in building efficient and stable domestic GPU intelligent computing clusters [1] Group 2: Industry Focus - The company will continue to monitor advancements and collaboration opportunities in the domestic computing power sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong outlook for its performance relative to the market [9][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit, with forecasts of 30.18 billion, 42.13 billion, and 58.06 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The company is focusing on accelerating product commercialization and plans to merge with Zhongke Shuguang to enhance industry integration [3][7]. - The company has increased its sales and marketing investments significantly, with sales expenses rising by 185.86% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.21%, and a net profit of 12.01 billion yuan, up 40.78% [6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 60.15%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to the increased proportion of new products and rising material costs [6]. - The company's research and development expenses reached 14.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.41% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.30, 1.81, and 2.50 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 105.8, 75.8, and 55.0 [5][8]. - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 60.12 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.47 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.3% [8][10].

东吴证券8月7日发布研报称，给予海光信息（688041.SH）买入评级。评级理由主要包括：1）25H1营 收高增，规模效应带动净利率；2）积极布局产业链整合，强化国产算力生态闭环；3）云厂商加速扩 容，H20制裁带来国产算力历史机遇。风险提示：技术升级不及预期，需求不及预期，市场竞争风险， 地缘政治风险等。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...