周末，重磅消息传出，GPU龙头摩尔线程冲刺科创板，受此提振，2025年9月22日，芯片ETF基金 （159599）场内价格迅速涨超2%，成份股芯原股份、江波龙涨超10%，晶晨股份、佰维存储涨超7%， 恒玄科技、兆易创新涨超6%。 消息面上，芯片板块近期利好频出。 摩尔线程科创板IPO将于本周9月26日上会。摩尔线程是国内GPU龙头，拟募资80亿元（系年内最大 IPO），主要用于新一代自主可控AI训练与推理一体芯片、图形芯片和AI SoC芯片的研发项目，以及补 充流动资金。如果成功过会，摩尔线程将成为A股国产GPU第一股。从6月30日IPO申请获受理到上会， 摩尔线程仅用了不到三个月时间，这一速度在科创板审核中颇为罕见。 自成立至今，摩尔线程累计融资金额数约百亿元，投资方包括深创投、红杉中国、字节跳动、腾讯投 资、五源资本等知名机构，上市将吸引更多投资者关注和资金流入。 目前，华为、寒武纪、海光信息等公司的算力芯片正加速迭代（上周阿里自研AI芯片曝光，百度自研 的昆仑芯已经拿下十亿级大单），国产供应链积极配套以实现算力芯片自主可控，此外，近期沐曦发布 基于国产供应链的旗舰GPU曦云C600，摩尔线程表示正联合国 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese computing power market is projected to reach $50 billion by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 50% in the coming years, potentially exceeding $100 billion by 2027/2028, indicating significant room for domestic production increase, possibly surpassing a trillion-dollar scale [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Huawei's launch of the Super Point signifies a shift towards super node cabinet clusters, raising competitive barriers in the industry, with other players like Shuangwang and Pinduoduo actively following suit, expected to enhance their capabilities by mid-2026 [1][5] - The supply side in 2026 is expected to have sufficient capacity, but leading players like Huawei and Zhongke Xun will maintain significant advantages and quotas, ensuring they retain a competitive edge [1][6] - Key players in the Zhongke system, such as Cambricon and Haiguang, have notable advantages in the domestic production process due to early testing and strategic national positioning, which will continue to benefit them in 2026 [1][7] - Anticipated capital expenditures (CAPEX) from major internet companies in 2026 are expected to exceed expectations, with a higher-than-expected domestic production rate due to increased policy support and a shift towards purchasing domestic chips [1][8] Market Dynamics - The market sentiment leans towards a supply surplus, with domestic production capacity expected to match or exceed demand, maintaining a high growth trajectory similar to 2025 [1][9] - There is a growing trend among chip manufacturers and major companies to develop Super Points to enhance overall computing efficiency, aligning with the trend of large models and addressing communication volume issues in data and expert model parallelism [2][10] Additional Important Insights - The current configuration value of domestic computing power remains positive, with Nvidia's uncertain future in China impacting its revenue forecasts, as it no longer includes Chinese revenue in profit predictions [3] - The domestic computing power market is vast, with potential for a domestic production rate increase to over 80% if Nvidia's role in China continues to diminish [4] - Huawei's recent announcement of over 8,000 nodes indicates its leading position in the Super Point domain, although its performance may not be as outstanding as expected [13] - Haiguang and Cambricon are also making progress in the Super Point area, with product launches anticipated soon, maintaining a competitive landscape among the top players [14] Future Trends - The domestic computing power market is expected to continue its strong growth into next year, with the top three players maintaining a solid position and minimal competitive pressure [15]

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher on September 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% to 3862.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11% to 12710.24 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.55% to 2906.03 points, while the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.71% to 1350.77 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.83 trillion yuan, with over 3100 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance Gold Sector - The gold and precious metals sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Western Gold and others hitting the daily limit [2] - Spot silver prices surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, with several international financial institutions bullish on gold prices, including UBS raising its 2026 gold price target to $3700 per ounce and Bank of America predicting a peak of $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [2] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector rebounded strongly, with companies like Maiwei Biotech and BeiGene reaching historical highs, and stocks such as Changchun High-tech and others hitting the daily limit [3] - The National Healthcare Security Administration recently published a preliminary list of drugs for the 2025 medical insurance and commercial insurance innovation drug directory, featuring new drugs including CAR-T products and several "first and only" global products [3] Chip Sector - The chip sector experienced a brief surge before retreating, with stocks like Liyang Chip hitting the daily limit and others like Tai Lingwei and Huahong Technology also rising [4] - Positive news included Alibaba's AI product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters and Goldman Sachs raising the target price for Cambricon to 2104 yuan, benefiting from the expansion of cloud spending in China [4]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's latest financial report indicates significant growth in capital expenditure and cloud business for Q2 2025, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba's capital expenditure and cloud business have shown high growth, reflecting strong investment in AI infrastructure despite geopolitical disruptions affecting overseas computing chip supply [1] - AI-related product revenue has consistently achieved triple-digit growth over the past eight quarters, highlighting the company's successful integration of AI into its offerings [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the progress in domestic AI chip autonomy is steadily advancing, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in AI technology [1] - Domestic cloud service providers are expected to experience a resurgence in capital expenditure driven by AI demand, signaling a return to high growth rates in the sector [1] - Recommendations are made for companies benefiting from the domestic computing wave, particularly in areas such as AIDC, server and network equipment, and upstream switching chip manufacturers [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rise in the Sci-Tech Innovation Chip 50 ETF (588750), which increased over 4% and reached a new high since its listing, indicating strong market interest and trading volume [1][3] - The ETF saw a net subscription of over 86 million yuan, leading its peers, and leveraged funds are actively participating, with the latest financing buy amounting to 10.81 million yuan [3][4] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Chip Index (000685) also experienced a strong increase of 4.15%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Jihua Technology (688141) up 13.48% and Haiguang Information (688041) up 10.64% [4][5] Group 2 - The release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which integrates innovative technology and supports the upcoming domestic chip design, is expected to catalyze the domestic computing power sector [5] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of domestic chips, as evidenced by the recent discussions with NVIDIA regarding security risks associated with their products [5] - The market for domestic AI chips is anticipated to expand due to the continuous improvement of the domestic ecosystem and the increasing demand for secure and reliable computing solutions [5][6]

Company Research - China Hongqiao (1378, Buy): Integrated cost advantages are significant, with a large buyback reflecting confidence. The company achieved revenue of 81.039 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%[11] - NetEase (NTES.US/9999.HK, Buy): Deferred revenue grew by 25% year-on-year, driven by updates in both new and existing game content[14] - Xtep International (1368, Buy): H1 2025 profit increased by 21.5%, with professional sports business maintaining rapid growth[21] Financial Performance - China Hongqiao's gross profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, benefiting from energy structure optimization and low-carbon technology[6] - NetEase's GAAP net profit reached 8.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%[14] - Xtep's revenue grew by 7.1% to 6.84 billion RMB, with the professional sports segment increasing by 32.5%[21] Market Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum market is in a tight balance, with prices expected to remain between 20,600-21,300 RMB/ton in H2 2025[7] - China Hongqiao's target price is set at 29.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price[9] - Xtep's target price is 7.36 HKD, reflecting a 19.8% upside potential[25]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Nvidia has resumed sales of its H20 chips to China, which is expected to alleviate the domestic market's computing power shortage in the short term. AMD has also resumed sales of its MI308 chips to China. The long-term trend indicates a push towards self-sufficiency in AI chip development in China [6][7] - TSMC reported Q2 2025 revenue exceeding $30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 44.4% and a net profit increase of 60.7%. The revenue from 7nm and below process nodes accounted for 74% of total revenue, with high-performance computing revenue growing by 14% quarter-on-quarter [8] - Global smartphone shipments grew by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while shipments in China declined by 4%. The overall demand in the electronics sector is in a phase of mild recovery, with a focus on AIOT, AI-driven technologies, and consumer electronics [10][11] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, which may positively impact the chemical industry [13] - A fire at Covestro's plant in Germany has disrupted TDI supply, leading to price increases. The TDI price is expected to rise due to supply constraints from Covestro, maintenance in Asia, and increased overseas demand [14][15] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a 4% increase last week, outperforming the broader market. The 11th batch of national drug procurement has been initiated, focusing on mature drugs, which may enhance the industry's growth prospects [20][21]