Group 1 - In February, 12 out of 20 industries in Canada experienced a decline, while the manufacturing sector grew by 0.6% [1] - The financial and insurance sectors have seen a continuous increase for three months, with a growth rate of 0.7% in February, partially offsetting the overall economic downturn [1] - The winter storms in central, eastern Canada, and British Columbia have negatively impacted the economy, particularly affecting the transportation and warehousing sector, which declined by 1.1% [4] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the unexpected decline in February is likely due to severe weather rather than tariff uncertainties, with significant impacts on mining, oil and gas, transportation, and real estate sectors [6] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted as a "bright spot," with a 0.6% growth in February, driven mainly by durable goods manufacturing, particularly machinery, which grew by 5.9% [7] - Deloitte's economic outlook predicts that the Canadian economy will enter a recession in the second quarter of this year, with a projected GDP growth rate of -1.1% for Q2 and -0.9% for Q3 [11][12] Group 3 - The Bank of Canada indicates that the era of low interest rates may be coming to an end, with a forecasted benchmark interest rate of 2.25% by the end of 2025, which is still higher than most of the 2010s [14] - The unemployment rate is expected to exceed 7% this year, with a projected loss of 75,000 jobs in the next two quarters, particularly in export-sensitive sectors like manufacturing, steel, and aluminum [14] - The current trade threats could lead to a permanent reduction of about 3% in Canada's real GDP by 2030 if exceptions in the USMCA are removed, highlighting the urgency to address long-term economic issues [17]

美国前副总统哈里斯：特朗普关税明显引发经济衰退。 ...

特朗普发表讲话表示，他看到了与中国达成协议的"非常好的机会"，尽管任何协议都必须符合美国的条件。另外，美国贸易代表格里尔(Jamieson Greer)表示，特朗普政府即将宣布第一批协议，这些协议将降低针对一些国家的计划关税。这也缓解了人们对全球贸易前景的一些担忧。 黄金今年已经上涨了约25%，主要是由于美国总统特朗普快速变化的贸易政策颠覆了市场，引发了对全球经济放缓的担忧，投资者纷纷转向避险资 产。金价上涨还受到以下因素的支撑：资金流入黄金ETF、央行买盘，以及中国出现强劲投机需求的迹象。展望未来，将于周五公布的美国非农就业 报告可能会揭示特朗普贸易政策对经济的初步影响。 尽管此前有数据显示，由于美国进口在关税落地前大幅飙升，美国经济在今年一季度出现了自2022年以来的首次收缩。美国经济萎靡也促使交易员加 大了对美联储今年将四次降息25个基点纳入预期，以帮助防止经济衰退。较低的利率通常对黄金有利，因为黄金不支付利息;同时美联储降息带来美元 走弱的预期也有利于铜价走高。 与此同时，铜价上个月下跌了6%，这是自2022年年中以来的最差表现，因为有迹象表明，全球贸易战开始损害经济，美国第一季度经济萎缩，而金属 铜 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. economy showed unexpected contraction with a GDP decline of 0.3% in Q1, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2022, significantly below the expected growth of 0.4% [3][11] - The market reacted sharply to the GDP data, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points and the Nasdaq falling close to 3% during early trading [3][5] - Following news of potential trade negotiations and tariff adjustments, the market began to recover, reducing most of the earlier losses [5] Group 2 - Major companies like AMD saw significant stock declines, with Supermicro Computer dropping over 11% due to disappointing earnings forecasts [6] - Among the tech giants, Microsoft and Meta reported better-than-expected earnings, with Meta raising its capital expenditure guidance for the year, leading to stock price increases [8] - In contrast, Tesla and Amazon experienced stock declines, with Tesla down 3.4% and Amazon down 1.6% after initial larger drops [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Department indicated that the GDP decline was primarily due to a 36% surge in preemptive imports before the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, which expanded the trade deficit [11] - Consumer spending growth was weak at only 1.8%, the lowest since mid-2023, contributing to the economic slowdown [11] - Some economists warned that if current tariff policies remain unchanged, the U.S. economy could face stagnation, with a 90% probability of recession predicted by Apollo Global Management's chief economist [12] Group 4 - Trump quickly attributed the economic downturn to his predecessor, claiming it was "Biden's stock market" and asserting that the economy is merely in a transitional phase [14][15] - Criticism arose regarding Trump's economic policies, with some analysts noting that the stock market and dollar performance during his term has been the worst since 1980 [16] - Retail giants like Walmart and Target have begun to absorb tariff costs, indicating a shift in strategy due to supply chain disruptions caused by the tariff war [19][20]

美一季度经济萎缩 关税政策引发经济陷入衰退 智通财经5月1日电，美国经济界人士表示，新一届美国政府上台后频繁扬言对贸易伙伴加征关税，引发 了市场担忧，导致一季度经济萎缩。美国政府采取的关税政策可能引发美国经济陷入衰退。美国乔治· 华盛顿大学经济学教授塔拉·辛克莱指出，新一届美国政府近几个月的重大政策转变直接削弱了美国经 济。美国抵押银行家协会首席经济学家迈克尔·弗拉坦托尼在一份报告中认为，美国政府关税政策带来 的负面影响，将使美联储在维持物价和实现美国可持续就业的问题上面临窘境。美国彼得森国际经济研 究所高级研究员、前美国财政部官员加里·赫夫鲍尔表示，美国关税政策正给企业决策者们带来巨大不 确定性，他们不仅担心自身供应链和客户，还担心其他领域的影响。这导致企业推迟投资决策，也导致 消费者信心急剧下滑，美国消费者将推迟购买大件商品。他认为，美国经济在今年下半年可能陷入衰 退。 (央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in copper prices is seen as a negative indicator for global economic health, reflecting increasing investor pessimism about economic prospects [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On a single trading day, copper futures for July delivery fell by 5.4%, closing at $4.61 per pound, marking the lowest closing level since April 11 and the largest single-day drop in over three weeks [1]. - In April, copper prices experienced an 8.4% cumulative decline, the largest monthly drop since June 2022, despite a year-to-date increase of 14.5% [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The current market trends suggest a "W-shaped recovery," indicating a potential second downturn after an initial recovery, which poses a more complex challenge than the typical "V-shaped recovery" [4]. - The decline in copper prices is attributed to macroeconomic concerns, including falling U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices, signaling pressure on the global economy [1][5]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - Market anxiety is heightened by fears of a recession and a lack of substantial progress in U.S.-China trade relations, which are seen as the primary factors suppressing copper prices [5]. - The dramatic price fluctuations are linked to previous tariff discussions initiated by the Trump administration, which initially caused a spike in copper prices [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Current support for copper prices is identified at $4.39 per pound, with a potential danger zone if prices fall below $4.03, indicating deeper economic issues [7]. - Optimism remains regarding upcoming trade negotiations, particularly with Japan, India, and South Korea, which could influence copper prices positively [7]. - A rebound in copper prices is contingent on several factors, including tariff relief and improved economic data from the U.S. and China, with projections suggesting a potential rise to $10,000 per metric ton by the end of 2025 [7][8].

智通财经APP获悉，2025年第一季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)出现0.3%的年化降幅，为2022年以来首次 录得负增长，引发华盛顿政坛和金融市场高度关注。现任总统特朗普周三迅速将这份经济"成绩单"的责 任归咎于前总统拜登，并暗示即将出炉的第二季度数据若不佳，同样会"算在拜登头上"。 "这需要时间，与关税无关，而是因为他留下了糟糕的基础数据。"特朗普继续写道，"但一旦繁荣开 始，那将是前所未有的。耐心点！！！" 不过，特朗普将经济衰退归因于拜登政府的说法存在明显误导。据美国商务部的报告，GDP下滑的主要 原因之一是企业在预期特朗普新政府将实施关税前抢先大量进口商品，导致贸易逆差拉低了整体经济增 速。同时，政府支出下降也对GDP构成拖累，尤其是国防支出的显著削减。 ADP同期发布的就业报告也未带来好消息。数据显示，4月份美国私营部门新增就业仅为6.2万个，远低 于市场预期的12万个，创下自2024年7月以来的最小增幅。而3月的数据也被下修至14.7万。 经济数据低迷，叠加部分上市公司财报不及预期，使得股市周三开盘即大幅下挫，尽管当日稍晚收复部 分失地，市场情绪仍显脆弱。这些情况势必会影响特朗普当天晚些时候在白宫 ...

美股三大指数已基本从4月初的暴跌中恢复，标普500指数、纳斯达克指数和道琼斯工业指数自4月8日以来分别反 弹9.85%、11.91%和6.75%。然而华尔街策略师普遍认为，当前反弹缺乏持续动能，关税政策及企业财报不确定性 高企，投资者信心仍显不足。 // 关税政策和企业盈利前景模糊 // 汇丰银行美洲股权策略负责人Nicole Inui将标普500指数的年终目标从6700点下调至5600点，并建议客户在目前通 胀加剧、经济增长放缓及衰退可能性增大的情况下，将投资组合进行"防御性"配置。她在报告中写道："我们预 计市场的叙事将围绕衰退与滞胀之间反复波动，直到关税不确定性平息，美联储开始降息，或通胀压力未能进一 步上升。" Inui还表示，在经历了近期的市场调整后，市场已经将"浅度"衰退或可能出现的"轻微滞胀"情景纳入定价。这种 滞胀表现为通货膨胀上升而经济增长放缓。但她的研究也表明，若经济增长恶化的速度超出预期，那么"衰退交 易"可能会重新启动。历史数据显示，经济出现较为严重的衰退时，股市通常会有更大幅度的下跌。 Inui的研究还指出，在严重衰退期间，标普500指数通常会从近期的高点下跌约30%。她认为，若经济 ...

美股尾盘上演绝地反攻，尽管投资者越发担心美国经济或将因特朗普挑起的贸易战而不堪重负。经历了 一个月的历史性波动之后，4月份最后一天波动同样剧烈：标普500指数收复了盘中2%的跌幅，为2022 年以来首次。据玉渊谭天报道，美方多渠道主动接触中方希望谈关税。与此同时，一些投资者押注美联 储将采取措施，以防防经济衰退。 ...

德媒分析指出，由于美国关税政策，全球经济前景变得黯淡。作为出口大国的德国受到的影响尤为严 重。美国是德国最重要的贸易伙伴，同时也是德国出口商品的最大买家。2024年，德国超1610亿欧元的 商品销往美国，占德国出口总额的10%。 疲弱的经济也影响到了就业市场。根据德国联邦劳工局4月30日数据，尽管春季轻微回暖，德国4月失业 人数相比3月减少了3.6万人，降至293.2万人。但这一数字较一年前增加了18.2万人。 近日，德国看守政府预计今年德国国内生产总值将零增长。国际货币基金组织发布的《世界经济展望报 告》也预测2025年德国经济增长陷入停滞。德国央行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔表示，2025年德国经济出现 停滞是理想情况，不能排除德国经济会轻度衰退。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社柏林4月30日电(记者马秀秀)根据德国联邦统计局4月30日公布的初步数据，经价格、季节和工作 日调整，德国第一季度国内生产总值环比微增0.2%。2024年第四季度，德国经济曾萎缩0.2%。 德国联邦统计局指出，私人消费支出和投资较上一季度均有所增长。然而，全年来看，德国经济可能面 临连续第三次衰退。 德国知名智库伊弗经济研究所经济 ...