Core Insights - Emerging technologies such as blockchain and smart contracts are driving the development of digital currencies, reshaping the underlying logic of payment systems, and providing innovative opportunities for cross-border payment clearing through Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [1] Traditional Cross-Border Payment Clearing System Challenges - The traditional cross-border payment clearing system, primarily based on the correspondent banking model, faces significant challenges including slow transaction speeds, high costs, lack of transparency, insufficient market coverage, and geopolitical risks [2][3][4] - Cross-border clearing is slow, taking at least 1 to 3 business days due to multiple intermediaries and varying operational hours across countries [2] - High costs are associated with the correspondent banking model, with global remittance costs reaching 6.3% in 2023, driven by various operational and compliance costs [2] - Transparency issues arise from the independent systems of different banks and institutions, leading to difficulties in tracking transactions and resolving disputes [3] - The traditional system's reliance on SWIFT for information flow exposes it to geopolitical risks, as seen in the U.S. leveraging SWIFT for sanctions [4] Current Research on CBDCs Improving Cross-Border Payment Clearing - CBDCs, issued by central banks, can be categorized into wholesale and retail types, with the latter aimed at enhancing domestic payment efficiency and the former focused on improving cross-border payments [5] - A significant majority (91%) of surveyed central banks are engaged in CBDC-related work, with many countries entering trial phases [5] - Three interoperability models for wholesale CBDCs are identified: compatibility, interconnection, and a single multi-currency payment system [6] Effectiveness of the mBridge Project in Improving Cross-Border Payment Clearing - The mBridge project, initiated by several central banks, aims to create a multilateral cooperation mechanism for cross-border payment clearing using distributed ledger technology [7][8] - The project has evolved from bilateral CBDC corridors to a standardized multilateral CBDC corridor network, allowing for direct currency exchanges and faster transaction times [8][10] - The average transaction time on the mBridge network is significantly reduced to 6-9 seconds compared to traditional systems [10] Cost Analysis of Cross-Border Payments - The mBridge project aims to reduce various cost components associated with traditional cross-border payments, including backend operational costs, foreign exchange risk costs, liquidity costs, and compliance costs [11][12][14] - The backend operational costs, which account for 27% of total costs, are expected to decrease due to improved synchronization of funds and information [12] - Foreign exchange risk costs, currently at 15%, are also anticipated to decline as participants can view real-time exchange rates [12] - Liquidity costs, which traditionally require banks to pre-fund accounts, will be reduced as mBridge allows for real-time settlement [13] - Compliance costs may rise due to the complexity of regulatory frameworks across different jurisdictions [14] Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations - The increasing demand for optimized cross-border payment environments necessitates the development of CBDCs, with a focus on enhancing the international role of the renminbi [15] - Recommendations include accelerating the establishment of multilateral cooperation mechanisms for cross-border payments and promoting the internationalization of the renminbi through digital currency applications [16][17]

高盛闭门会-脉动中国-详解 10 月经济数据，五大投资主题 20251119 摘要 中国固定资产投资（FAI）数据下滑，部分原因是统计局主动挤出水分， 并不完全反映经济活动的减弱。水泥需求与官方数据对比显示过去存在 高报现象，需关注数据质量而非单纯增速。 10 月工业增加值低于预期，受季节性因素和出口相关电子产品拖累影响。 社会零售额增速小幅下降，双十一促销提前及去年高基数效应是主要原 因，预计 11 月增速可能持续疲软。 房地产市场面临挑战，新开工和竣工项目大幅收缩，二手房价格加速下 行。未来需适度宽松政策，如降低存量房贷利率、加快城中村改造等， 以缓解市场压力。 货币政策方面，央行更注重中长期调节而非短期刺激，关注银行净息差 问题。短期内大规模增量政策可能性较低，或在明年初进行政策宽松， 需关注 12 月中央经济工作会议。 央行管理利率差距，保持政策利率与市场利率稳定。人民币呈现缓步升 值趋势，央行推动人民币国际化和资本市场开放，外汇管理和汇率稳定 至关重要。 Q&A 近期中国的固定资产投资（FAI）数据表现如何？其背后的原因是什么？ 近期中国的固定资产投资（FAI）数据表现不佳，连续三四个月低于市场预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) project by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in collaboration with Standard Bank Group marks a significant advancement for RMB clearing networks in Africa [1][2] Group 1 - ICBC has established a strategic partnership with Standard Bank Group, becoming the largest single shareholder and facilitating the direct participation of Standard Bank in CIPS [1] - The project aims to enhance the RMB clearing infrastructure in Africa, with a memorandum of cooperation signed during the China-Africa Economic and Trade Investment Forum [1] - The CIPS system at Standard Bank successfully went live, making it the first local bank in Africa to achieve direct participation in CIPS [2] Group 2 - The collaboration between ICBC and Standard Bank has led to the completion of system setups and the successful approval from the South African Reserve Bank for the CIPS system [2] - The first large RMB payment transaction has been completed, indicating the operational readiness of Standard Bank as a CIPS direct participant [2] - Future efforts will focus on strengthening the cross-border settlement and payment clearing system to support Sino-South African and Sino-African economic cooperation [2]

Macro Research - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a strategic upgrade in high-level opening-up, transitioning from factor-driven to rule-based openness, enhancing China's voice and rule-making power in global economic governance [1] - Key focus areas during the "14th Five-Year" period include steady progress in RMB internationalization, diverse regional opening layouts, increased openness in the service sector, deepening institutional opening, and differentiated cooperation in multilateral trade [1] Company Research Zhejiang Dingli (603338.SH) - Zhejiang Dingli achieved operating revenue of 6.67 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.59 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [2] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.07 billion, 2.41 billion, and 2.75 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 4.08, 4.75, and 5.44 yuan [2] - The high-altitude machinery market has significant growth potential, with a recovery in overseas shipments expected to boost profit margins [2] Xunwei Communication (300136.SZ) - Xunwei Communication has entered the North American AI hardware supply chain, maintaining a leading position in commercial satellites [3] - The company is optimistic about its competitive edge in mature businesses and the growth potential in satellite communication, AI hardware, LCP, BTB, and automotive connectivity [3] - Current market valuation corresponds to PE ratios of 38X, 34X, and 30X for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3] Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) - Baidu's AI ecosystem value is expected to be re-evaluated, with AI native advertising enhancing traditional search ad monetization [4] - The company has a healthy net cash flow, and its "Luo Bo Kuaipao" business model has been validated with accelerating order growth [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 18.2 billion, 20.5 billion, and 23 billion yuan, with current PE ratios of 15x, 14x, and 12x [4] Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) - Xiaomi's automotive business achieved its first quarterly profit, but the mobile and automotive gross margins may face pressure due to rising upstream costs and intensified market competition [5] - The company maintains a Non-IFRS net profit forecast of 42.6 billion yuan for 2025, while lowering 2026-2027 forecasts to 43.8 billion and 51 billion yuan [5] - Xiaomi's long-term growth logic is supported by its multi-device strategy in the AI era, high-end positioning, and overseas expansion [5]

Group 1 - Multiple foreign institutions, including Morgan Stanley and UBS, express confidence in the future development of China's economy and capital markets, maintaining an overweight position on Chinese stocks and raising the target for the Chinese stock index [1][2] - Positive factors supporting the Chinese stock market are expected to continue into next year, with foreign capital anticipated to keep flowing in, particularly into sectors like AI, technology, overseas expansion, and "anti-involution" [1][2] Group 2 - China's economy is projected to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, resilient exports, and a gradual recovery in consumption and public service spending [2][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting annual export growth of 5% to 6% in the coming years, while the drag from the real estate sector is expected to diminish [2][3] Group 3 - The focus of the stock market is shifting towards substantial improvements in corporate profitability, with UBS predicting another "bumper year" for the Chinese stock market in 2026 [3][4] - Factors such as the development of innovation sectors, support for private enterprises, and continued fiscal expansion are expected to sustain the market, although significant valuation increases are not anticipated [3][4] Group 4 - Foreign capital has been consistently flowing into the Chinese stock market, with $50.6 billion entering in the first ten months of this year, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [5] - Institutional investors are increasingly confident in China's capabilities in AI, technology, and high-end manufacturing, with many indicating plans to increase their allocation to Chinese stocks in the coming months [5]

摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内卷"措施下，2026年中国经济将 温和增长。同时，经济增长结构将不断优化，制造业和出口展现韧性，消费与公共服务支出逐渐成为重 要支撑。 此外，二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 （以下简称《建议》），也令外资机构充满信心。 高盛认为，《建议》体现出中国进一步提升先进制造业竞争力，以及进一步提振出口的决心和能力。基 于此，高盛上调了对中国出口增速和实际GDP增速的预测。预计未来几年中国出口量将每年增长5%至 6%，获得更多全球市场份额并推动整体经济扩张。此外，房地产行业下行对中国经济的拖累将减弱， 提振消费将循序渐进，政策宽松力度将加大。同时，随着高新技术制造业竞争力提升以及人民币国际化 加速，中国股市表现将领先全球。 股市驱动转向盈利主导 今年以来，A股表现强劲。数据显示，截至11月19日，上证指数年内上涨17.75%，深证成指年内上涨 25.59%。在经历了2025年强劲反弹后，外资机构预计，明年市场的焦点将转向企业盈利能力的实质性 改善。 瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪表示，正面因素将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting power dynamics between the U.S. presidency and the Federal Reserve, highlighting how Trump's actions and rhetoric have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the stability of the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve is described as a powerful institution that influences both the U.S. economy and global financial markets, with its decisions impacting over $70 trillion in financial assets [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar, as it prevents monetary policy from being swayed by short-term political interests [3][5]. - Trump's public criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reflects a significant challenge to this independence, as he seeks to influence monetary policy to benefit his political agenda [4][10]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's desire for low interest rates and loose monetary policy is aimed at boosting the stock market and economic growth to enhance his political standing, which conflicts with Powell's focus on inflation and employment [4][8]. - The potential for Trump to replace Powell raises alarms about the Fed becoming a political tool, which could undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [4][10]. - The article warns that if the Fed loses its independence, it could lead to a loss of trust in the U.S. financial system, resulting in a significant shift in global capital flows and a potential financial crisis [9][10]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - The ongoing debate about the Fed's independence has led to increased volatility in the dollar index and a trend towards "de-dollarization" among various economies, indicating a growing distrust in the U.S. financial system [9][10]. - The article emphasizes that the stability of the global financial system relies on the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is threatened by political interference in monetary policy [10][12]. - Countries are increasingly exploring alternatives to the dollar, which could reshape the global financial landscape and reduce reliance on U.S. monetary policy [13][14].

Core Insights - The global transaction volume of the Renminbi (RMB) has increased to 8.5%, narrowing the gap with the British Pound, indicating a new opportunity for RMB internationalization [1] - The next 10 to 15 years are critical for the deepening development of RMB internationalization, as the international monetary system is undergoing significant changes [1] Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is witnessing a shift towards a diversified reserve currency trend as countries accelerate their de-dollarization processes [1] - The emergence of digital currencies and new international monetary systems is gaining heightened attention from the international community [1] - Offshore finance plays a crucial role in promoting the internationalization of currencies, with Hong Kong serving as a key offshore RMB market [1] Group 2 - Recommendations include consolidating Hong Kong's position as an offshore RMB business hub and promoting coordinated development of global offshore markets [2] - Hong Kong's highly internationalized financial market and legal system make it a vital gateway for foreign investors into the mainland market [2] - The strategy involves leveraging Hong Kong to connect with other international financial centers like London, Singapore, and Luxembourg, while expanding offshore RMB business with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and the RCEP region [2]

Core Viewpoint - China UnionPay and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have launched multi-currency debit and credit cards in Turkey, enhancing global payment options and supporting bilateral trade and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2] Group 1: Partnership and Product Launch - The collaboration marks the first issuance of UnionPay multi-currency cards in Turkey, providing local residents with secure and efficient payment solutions [1] - The cards support multiple currencies including Renminbi, Turkish Lira, British Pound, US Dollar, and Euro, facilitating transactions for cardholders globally [2] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The launch is seen as a significant milestone in UnionPay's international business development and its efforts to deepen localization in the Middle East [1] - The initiative aligns with China's high-level opening-up strategy and aims to enhance cross-border financial connectivity [2] Group 3: Future Plans - UnionPay plans to leverage its extensive global acceptance network and product innovation capabilities to offer more inclusive financial payment solutions [1] - The company aims to continue strengthening partnerships with local entities to improve cross-border payment services and support initiatives like the Belt and Road and Turkey's "Middle Corridor" [2]

全球金融圈都被中国一个操作惊到了，明明自己账上躺着3万亿美元的外汇储备，根本花不完，却面向全球投资者发行了40亿的美元债。 不缺美元借美元，中国到底打的什么算盘？ 就在11月份，中国在香港成功发行了40亿美元的主权债券，3年期和5年期各20亿美元。 按理来说，发债券就等于找市场借现金，发美元债就代表手里没美元了，需要借美元来救急。 可中国呢？ 压根就不缺美元，9月份的顺差还有500多亿美元，外汇储备更是高达3万亿美元，全球独一份。 那中国为什么还要借美元呢？ 这背后的真实目的，是改写全球金融规则，直指美元霸权的要害，中国发行的不是美债，而是美债的掘墓人，特朗普跟美联储恐怕都要坐不住了。 为什么这么说呢？三大原因。 第一点，这是对中国主权信用认可度的最好测试。 过去几十年里，世界各国的主权信用，牢牢地攥在3家评级机构的手里，分别是美国的穆迪、标准普尔，和欧美合资的惠誉。 美元霸权收割全球，这3家机构都出了不少力，每当华尔街要收割一个国家的优质资产时，这3家机构就会一起发力，大幅调降目标国家的主权信用评级，市 场投资者一看，马上就会引起恐慌，纷纷抛售这个国家的外汇、债券和股票。 面对投资者的挤兑，本来没问题的国家 ...