报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：贵金属遭受重挫 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会 31 日发布 2026 年 1 月份中国采购经理指 数。数据显示，1 月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势， 产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026 年 1 月 份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点。1 月份装备制 造业采购经理指数为 50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为 52%，装备制造业和 高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。受获利回吐和短期期货 交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格 1 月 30 日继续大幅下跌，均 创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。1 月 30 日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金 期货跌 8.35%报 4907.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 25.50%报 85.25 美元/盎 司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：周五国际市场贵金属价格暴跌，现货白银一度跌超 30%，现货黄金一度 跌超 10%。此次巨震主要受两方面因素影响：一是因为 1 月 30 ...

具体而言，投资者应以谨慎防守为主。黄金的长期配置价值虽在，但短期内需在新的宏观叙事下寻找合 理的估值中枢。白银风险已急剧放大，参与需极度谨慎。春节长假临近，外盘走势不确定性较大，保持 灵活仓位与充足流动性是首要纪律。 本次调整的直接触发点，是特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什为美联储下一任主席。凯文·沃什的提名本质上是 政治博弈与市场信任重建的结果。一方面，他历史上以批评量化宽松、强调央行独立性而闻名，政策主 张具有鲜明的"鹰派"色彩，特别是反对将资产负债表扩张作为常态工具，主张通过缩表来维护政策空 间。另一方面，他也同样支持通过降息来降低实体经济融资成本，其政策框架呈现出"既鹰又鸽"的矛盾 统一。对于市场而言，凯文·沃什的上任意味着"无约束宽松"的预期被彻底打破，政策路径将更加注重 纪律与平衡，这对前期建立在极端宽松叙事上的资产价格构成了直接冲击。 本次金银暴跌的深层原因则在于市场自身脆弱的运行状态。经历近一个月脱离基本面的急速拉升，金银 市场已积累了巨大的获利盘，技术性回调需求强烈。凯文·沃什的提名成为引爆市场获利了结的导火 索，最终演变为纽约期金单日最大跌幅超10%、白银大跌逾30%。 整体而言，此次金银调整更多 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxi Securities highlights a significant drop in gold prices, with a decline of over 9% on January 30, marking the largest single-day drop in 40 years. This decline is attributed to market concerns over the potential shift in Trump's preference for a weaker dollar, which has historically supported gold prices. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural issues in the US GDP and persistent expectations of interest rate cuts [1]. Supply - Gold supply is projected to increase by 1% year-on-year by 2025, reaching 5,002.3 tons. Producers are focusing on full-price risk exposure with limited interest in hedging. Despite a positive outlook for gold miners in 2025, the market's median expectation for falling gold prices may lead some participants to adopt a more cautious approach [1]. Demand - Total gold demand (excluding OTC and others) is expected to reach 4,999.4 tons in 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase. Notably, investment demand is projected to surge by 84% to 2,175.3 tons, while demand for gold jewelry is anticipated to decline by 19% to 1,638.0 tons [2]. Jewelry - Global jewelry demand is expected to decline in volume due to rising gold prices, but the value of demand is projected to increase across all markets. This indicates that consumers are willing to spend more on jewelry despite the volume decrease, driven by higher gold prices [3]. Investment - Global gold investment is forecasted to more than double, reaching an impressive $240 billion in 2025. Key drivers include safe-haven demand, geopolitical risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts. The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see a historical high in investment demand, with total purchases of ETFs, gold bars, and coins reaching 1,141 tons [4]. Central Banks - Central bank net gold demand is projected to rise to 230 tons in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 6% increase from the previous quarter. Despite a cautious approach due to rising gold prices, central banks' long-term interest in gold remains strong, with total annual demand reaching 863 tons [5]. Industrial - Gold demand in the technology sector is expected to remain stable, with the fourth quarter showing consistent performance. The demand for gold in electronics is driven by the ongoing AI boom, although there are challenges in other areas of the electronics sector due to capacity constraints [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the acceleration of "de-dollarization" trends are expected to sustain central bank and investor demand for gold. Concerns over global debt and monetary policies are likely to benefit gold prices in the long term. The report suggests focusing on gold resource stocks, which are currently undervalued, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [8].

2、美国总统特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，接替将于5月结束任期 的鲍威尔。这一提名还需获得参议院批准。不过，参议院民主党领袖舒默、共和党参议员蒂利斯 已表示，将阻止对沃什的提名，除非撤销针对鲍威尔的调查。民主党参议员沃伦也表示，沃什并 非美联储主席的理想人选。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗 普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 宏 观 消 息 3、数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势，产业结构继续优 化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经 理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付 ...

| 田银万国期货 | | --- | 2026 年 2 月 2 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1163.36 | 1161.420 | 27254 | 27941 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1252.10 | 1249.120 | 30055 | 30891 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -88.74 | -87.700 | -2801 | -2950 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -7.09% | -7.02% | -9.32% | -9.55% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 83704 | 187299 | 159582 | 260869 | | | | 成交量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold and silver markets has been triggered by the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, leading to significant price corrections after reaching historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Event Catalysts - The immediate cause of the gold price drop was Trump's nomination of the hawkish candidate, Waller, for the Federal Reserve chair, which raised concerns about tighter monetary policy and led to a sell-off in gold [4]. - The market's reaction was exacerbated by fears of a government shutdown, increasing liquidity concerns and risk aversion among investors [4]. - The underlying market structure was already fragile, with gold prices having surged to nearly $5,600 per ounce, and implied volatility reaching over 46%, indicating a high sensitivity to negative news [4]. Group 2: Short-term Volatility - Gold has entered a high volatility phase, with technical correction pressures, but extreme volatility often leads to concentrated selling pressure, potentially creating a rebound opportunity [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that after extreme volatility peaks, gold prices can experience significant fluctuations without necessarily indicating a trend reversal [6]. - The current market pricing of Waller's policies may be premature, as the feasibility of his hawkish stance amid economic pressures is uncertain [6]. Group 3: Long-term Logic - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by three core pillars: monetary easing, global de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks [7][10]. - The global interest rate cycle is expected to continue, with a projected easing period starting in September 2024, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7]. - Central banks are actively increasing gold reserves, with notable purchases from China and Poland, providing solid long-term support for gold prices [7][10]. Group 4: Investment Direction - Investors are encouraged to utilize gold ETFs and other investment tools to capitalize on market fluctuations and long-term trends [13]. - The gold ETF linked to physical gold is recommended for those seeking lower volatility, while gold stock ETFs may offer higher returns during price increases [13]. - For broader resource exposure, mining ETFs that cover various commodities are suggested, as they may provide strong profit potential amid resource scarcity [13].

[Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年黄金需求同比增加 8%至 4999.4 吨，投资需求同 比增加 84%至 2175.3 吨 证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Title2] 有色金属 [Table_Summary] ►供给：2025 年黄金总供应量同比增长 1%，达到 5002.3 吨 生产商一直专注于全价风险敞口，对套期保值兴趣寥寥。黄金 矿商在 2025 年同样表现亮眼。然而，市场对金价下跌的中位 数预期可能促使部分参与者提高警惕。套期保值行为正从看涨 期权卖出转向看跌期权买入——尽管规模仍相对有限——这表 明矿商希望在保留上行风险敞口的同时获得下行保护。但要将 产量提升至当前水平之上仍将面临挑战。 ►需求：2025 年黄金需求（不考虑 OTC及其他）达到 4999.4 吨，同比增长 8% 2025 年，不考虑 OTC 及其他，黄金总需求同比增长 8%至 4999.4 吨。其中金饰制造 1638.0 吨，同比减少 19%；科技用金 322.8 吨，同比减少 1%；投资需求 2175.3 吨，同比增长 84%； 央行购金 863.3 吨 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货：波动加大，内强于外 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周股市整体呈现震荡格局，小盘风格指数表现更弱。板块方面，石油石化、 通信、煤炭涨幅居前；国防军工、电力设备，汽车跌幅居前。上周市场在对大资金政策调控的担忧下开 盘，随后整体驱动不明显，以板块性和结构性题材行情为主。在周初受到大宗商品延续大涨的支撑之下， 贵金属、有色以及能化板块明显强势。随后到周四，贵州茅台大涨，带动上证 50 等权重指数出现明显回 升。周五伴随贵金属大幅震荡，相关品种调整明显，同时带动风险偏好明显抑制，以小市值成长风格为首 的指数出现更明显波动，大盘价值指数则相对稳健。 后期来看，近期行情将继续受海外因素驱动影响。此前基于"米兰报告"(通过关税、军事安全扭转 美元高估，降低美元储备货币责任，缓解美国逆差与财政困难)与货币财政双宽松路径演绎下，市场对信 用货币信心下降，去美元化信仰持续深化，商品定价锚重估。贵金属成为核心替代，且依靠相关品种比价 重估带来牛市扩散。但由于新任美联储主席被冠以鹰派标签，央 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's manufacturing market demand has tightened, but production remains in an expansionary phase, with ongoing optimization of the industrial structure. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, while the high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 52%, indicating stable development in these sectors [1] - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines on January 30, with COMEX gold futures dropping 8.35% to $4,907.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 25.50% to $85.25 per ounce, marking some of the largest single-day declines in decades [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, a sharp decline was observed, with spot silver dropping over 30% and spot gold over 10%. This volatility is attributed to two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, which strengthened the dollar index, and a market correction following a period of rapid price increases [2][19] - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability, which may lead to a high probability of interest rate cuts within the year [2][20] - In the oil market, the SC night market saw a decline of 2.67%. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement with Iran are noted as factors influencing the market [3][14] Group 3 - The copper market is experiencing a short-term adjustment phase, with prices down 0.47%. Supply remains tight, and while smelting profits are at breakeven, overall production continues to grow [21] - The zinc market also saw a slight decline of 0.23%, with tight supply conditions persisting and downstream demand showing mixed signals [22] - Aluminum prices fell by 2.82%, reflecting weak demand and increasing inventory levels, although long-term support is expected from low inventory and constrained supply [23]