每经记者｜潘婷 每经编辑｜金冥羽 陈星 记者|潘婷 编辑|金冥羽 陈星 杜波 校对|许绍航 在地缘政治不确定性持续发酵、市场对美联储年内降息预期升温的背景下，今年以来，避险资金大举涌入黄金与白银市场。1月份现货黄金价格累涨约 13%，不过，在1月最后一个交易日，黄金一度下跌超11%。 2月2日，国际市场贵金属价格开盘后大幅跳水，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4423.2美元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌超6%；白银期 货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司71.2美元，下跌超9%。很多投资者冲向水贝黄金市场"买金卖金"。 在经历了暴跌之后，黄金、白银价格2月3日迎来反弹，市场买金卖金是否还火爆？"料商放假""原料没有了""回收一公斤以上就要考虑一下"⋯⋯2月4日， 记者实探深圳水贝黄金市场。 实探水贝：有商家称"原料都没有了" 在经历此前暴跌后，国际金价自2月3日起反弹，并于2月4日收复关键点位，一度重回5000美元/盎司上方，行情可谓"过山车"。 水贝商家给金首饰称重 每经记者 潘婷 摄 《每日经济新闻》记者以客户身份走访深圳水贝市场，一名店家对记者表示："前两天金价回调的时候人很多，这两天金价上涨人就少了。现在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent unprecedented crash in the international precious metals market, resulting in a loss of $15 trillion in market value within 48 hours, is seen as a significant event, comparable to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [1] Group 1: Market Reaction and Events - The market initially perceived the crash as a normal correction until the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which triggered panic across global capital markets [3][12] - The crash occurred during a "liquidity vacuum" period, specifically between 2 AM and 4 AM in Asia, when trading volumes were low, allowing large investment banks to execute massive sell-offs of "paper gold" and "paper silver" contracts [7][9] - A single investment bank reportedly sold a volume equivalent to several months of China's gold production in one day, indicating a premeditated attack rather than normal market behavior [10] Group 2: Impact on Precious Metals and Broader Markets - The crash led to a 36% drop in silver prices and a 12% decline in gold prices, with the cryptocurrency market also suffering significant losses, including Bitcoin dropping below $76,000 and Ethereum falling over 11% [12][36] - The panic spread to stock and bond markets, raising concerns about the stability of these markets [12] Group 3: Political Context and Implications - The catalyst for the market turmoil is linked to Trump's nomination of Warsh, who has a history of shifting monetary policy stances, raising uncertainty in the market [14][16] - Trump's urgency in appointing Warsh is tied to the upcoming midterm elections, with a focus on economic performance and interest rate policies to appeal to voters [18][19] - The dual strategy of maintaining a strong dollar while pursuing aggressive monetary policies poses risks to the market, particularly for gold, which traditionally serves as a hedge against dollar depreciation [21][22] Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics - The crash reflects broader anxieties about the U.S. dollar's dominance, as countries like China, India, and Russia increase their gold reserves amid fears of U.S. debt levels approaching $39 trillion [26][27] - The event signals a potential shift in the global financial order, with the U.S. attempting to suppress gold prices to reinforce the dollar's status as a "hard currency" [26][40] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, with the dollar's share in global reserves dropping to 56%, the lowest in 30 years, indicating a shift towards alternative financial systems [27][43] Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - The crash serves as a cautionary lesson for investors about the volatility of so-called "safe-haven" assets, emphasizing the need for a clear understanding of market dynamics [38][40] - Despite the downturn in gold prices, central banks continue to accumulate gold, suggesting a long-term belief in its value as a stable asset [40] - Investors are advised to remain calm and avoid panic selling, as maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial in navigating the current market landscape [42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the alarming trend of declining foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting a significant shift in global asset allocation and the potential implications for the U.S. economy and its creditworthiness [3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - By February 2026, the U.S. debt has officially surpassed $38 trillion, reflecting an increase of several trillion dollars within a year [3]. - China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen below $730 billion, marking a 20-year low [3]. - The trend of major buyers like China, Japan, and European institutions retreating from U.S. debt indicates a planned asset structure adjustment [3][5]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, is reportedly selling off bonds to stabilize its currency, indicating a retreat from U.S. assets [6]. - The shift in investment patterns is further evidenced by the reluctance of Japanese pension and insurance funds to invest in U.S. markets due to rising domestic interest rates [6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is engaged in quantitative tightening, reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which raises questions about the attractiveness of U.S. debt [8]. - The largest buyers of U.S. debt have shifted to a category labeled "other buyers," primarily consisting of hedge funds operating in offshore financial centers, which engage in high-leverage trading strategies [8][9]. Group 4: Market Risks - The reliance on high-leverage strategies by hedge funds creates a precarious demand for U.S. debt, which could collapse under slight market fluctuations [9]. - The potential for a mass withdrawal by these funds could trigger a chain reaction of selling that the market may not be able to absorb [9]. Group 5: Global Credit Dynamics - The U.S. is perceived to be overextending its global credit, risking a loss of trust as even its closest allies reduce their holdings [11]. - The ongoing discussions around de-dollarization reflect a fundamental shift in global financial dynamics, as countries seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar [11]. Group 6: Future Implications - The article raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. credit if the current reliance on debt and leverage cannot continue [15]. - The rapid increase in U.S. debt, accumulating at a rate of several thousand dollars per second, suggests an impending crisis if corrective measures are not taken [13].

在经历近期的高位回调后，现货黄金2月4日再度走强，重新站上5000美元/盎司关口。 此前一周，国际金价在创出历史高位后快速回落，市场情绪明显波动，黄金ETF资金也随行情出 现集中进出。在短期冲击逐步消化后，随着美元指数走软、风险偏好回落，金价近期展开修复， 带动相关ETF规模出现边际改善。 多家机构认为，上周的回撤并未动摇支撑黄金的中长期逻辑。在美元信用、全球央行购金以及地 缘政治等因素支撑下，黄金的配置价值仍被看好，后续投资者需重点关注资金通过ETF等工具的 再配置节奏。 金价高位回调后修复，黄金ETF规模同步波动 近期，国际黄金市场波动有所加大，金价在高位出现明显回调后再度反弹。 复盘近期的金价走势，伦敦金价在1月29日刷新历史高点，一度逼近5600美元/盎司，但随后迅速 转向。1月30日，国际金价单日暴跌逾9%，失守5000美元/盎司关口。上周，伦敦现货黄金收于 4880美元/盎司，周环比下跌2.0%；国内AU9999黄金收于1164元/克，周环比上涨4.8%，内外盘走 势出现一定分化。 此后，随着市场风险偏好回落、美元指数走软等因素发酵，国际金银价格展开反弹。金价在2月3 日录得2009年以来最大单日 ...

周三，金价一度反弹至近5100美元关口，此前一日录得17年多来最大单日涨幅，从1983年以来最惨烈的 两日暴跌中企稳。 路透社一项调查显示，随着分析师大幅上调黄金价格预期，其2026年黄金目标价创下历史新高。他们预 计，地缘政治不确定性与各国央行持续大举购金仍是价格上涨的核心驱动因素。 过去三周针对30位分析师与交易员的调查显示，2026年黄金均价的预期中值为每盎司4746.50美元，这 是路透社自2012年开展该调查以来的最高年度预测，较2025年10月的4275美元显著上修。而一年前的同 类调查中，2026年黄金均价预测仅为2700美元，金价近期的暴涨已促使分析师多次上调预期。 贵金属经纪商GoldCore首席执行官戴维・罗素（David Russell）表示："我们正进入一个特殊时期，数 十年来支撑全球经济与地缘政治稳定的制度体系，其合法性与韧性正遭遇一代人以来最严峻的考验。" 黄金看涨逻辑未被破坏 兼具避险属性与工业金属属性的白银，2025年涨幅超过147%，并在2026年1月29日延续涨势至121.62美 元的历史新高，周一低至71.29美元，但随后连续两个交易日反弹，截至发稿一度站上92美元关口。 ...

| COMEX白银 | | | | | SI | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 88.860 | | | +5.559 +6.67% | | | | | COMEX USD 4:27:48 延时15分钟 | | | 6 | | | 英五 | 88.925 | | 3 | | | | 卖四 | 88.920 | | 3 | | | | 美三 | 88.900 | | 2 | | | | 学二 | 88.890 | | 4 | | | | 英一 | 88.885 | | 2 | | | | 坛一 | 88.850 | | 1 | | | | 买二 | 88.845 | | 1 | | | | 买三 | 88.820 | | 3 | | | | 买口 | 88.815 | | 2 | | | | 六五 | 88.810 | | 2 | | | | 总量 | 26004 现手 | | | | 8 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | | 84.915 | | | 最高 | 90.435 | 最低 | | 83.000 | | | 均价 | 87.365 | 振幅 | | ...

格隆汇2月4日｜路透调查显示，黄金有望在2026年再创新高，地缘政治不确定性以及强劲的央行买盘仍 是主要驱动因素。过去三周对30名分析师和交易员进行的调查显示，2026年金价预期中值为每盎司 4746.50美元，创下路透自2012年开展该调查以来的最高年度预测，较去年10月预估的4275美元显著上 升。一年前的类似调查中，2026年的均价预期仅为2700美元。 分析师认为，推动金价上涨的因素——包括地缘政治风险、央行持续购金、对美联储独立性的担忧、美 国债务上升、贸易不确定性以及"去美元化"趋势——将在2026年继续支撑这黄金。白银价格预期同样被 上调，目前预计2026年白银均价为每盎司79.50美元，而去年10月调查中对2026年的预期仅为50美元。 ...

2026年伊始，全球市场见证了一场惊人的金属狂欢，这不仅是资产价格的重估，更是一个被市场严重低 估的宏观通胀信号。巴克莱最新研报指出，通胀市场目前对金属价格暴涨的风险定价过低。 据追风交易台，1月3日，巴克莱认为，如果金属价格出现持续性的10%的上涨冲击，将在两年内推高名 义CPI约0.3个百分点，推高核心CPI约0.2个百分点。虽然直接传导效应看似温和，但在当前甚至出现白 银暴涨150%的极端行情下，这种累积效应不容忽视。 目前的市场叙事被原油价格的下跌所迷惑，导致通胀掉期和远期市场未能充分计入金属带来的上行风 险。对于投资者而言，这意味着当前的通胀对冲成本可能被低估，通胀预期的分布正在发生实质性右移 （向更高通胀偏移）。 金属狂潮：2026年的开局暴击 2026年开年至今，基本金属和贵金属市场并未如传统预期般运行，而是上演了一场全面且剧烈的反弹， 推动多个板块逼近或突破历史高点。自2025年1月1日以来，白银即便在近期大幅抛售之后，涨幅仍超过 150%；黄金上涨80%；锡上涨60%；铜上涨50%；铝上涨20%。 巴克莱指出，这种价格行为的背景极其复杂，包括外国储备管理者的偏好转移、金融条件的宽松、对美 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, including a significant rebound after a high-level correction, indicate a resilient long-term outlook for gold supported by factors such as dollar credit, global central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - After reaching a historical high, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 9% in a single day on January 30, falling below $5000 per ounce [2]. - As of February 3, gold prices rebounded, recording the largest single-day increase since 2009, and surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark again [2][3]. - The London gold price closed at $4880 per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.0%, while domestic AU9999 gold rose to 1164 RMB per gram, marking a 4.8% increase [2]. Group 2: ETF Fund Flows - The fluctuations in gold prices have led to significant changes in the scale of gold ETFs, with some major products experiencing a drop of over 20 billion RMB in a single day following the price decline [2]. - By February 3, several leading gold ETFs saw a recovery in scale, with Huaan Gold ETF increasing by over 50 billion RMB, indicating a return of some funds to gold assets [3]. - The sensitivity of ETF fund flows to gold price movements reflects the market's short-term trading characteristics and the accelerated pace of capital inflows and outflows in a high-volatility environment [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent price adjustments do not alter the long-term fundamentals supporting gold, which include weakening dollar credit, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The volatility in gold prices was attributed to a combination of factors, including the appointment of the Federal Reserve chairman and technical trading adjustments, rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions [4][5]. - The core reasons supporting gold's value remain intact, with expectations that as volatility decreases, gold will regain its role as a hedge against systemic risks and currency credit risks [5].

宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 关注 Q2 美国降息预期重启：——2026 年 | 2026-01-30 | | --- | --- | | 1 月 fomc 点评 | | | 风偏走高，美元和利率反弹影响有限：— | 2026- ...