作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 去年基础设施建设投资（下称基建投资）增速罕见出现下滑。 1月19日，国家统计局公开数据，2025年全年全国固定资产投资（不含农户）约48.5万亿元，比上 年下降3.8%。分领域来看，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）下降2.2%。 这是2014年以来国家统计局公布的基建投资增速中，首次出现增速下滑情形。 根据国家统计局数据，2014年基建投资增速同比增长约21.5%，此后几年基建投资增速均保持两位 数高增长，但2018年基建投资增速大幅降至3.8%，2020年疫情冲击下，基建投资增速进一步下 滑，2021年降至0.4%低点。2022年国家积极推进落实稳经济一揽子政策和接续措施，基建投资增 速反弹至9.4%，2023年和2024年基建投资增速逐步放缓，分别为5.9%和4.4%，基本保持平稳增 长。 不过2025年全年基建投资同比增速下滑至2.2%。从2025年全年的月度增速来看，增速呈现逐步放 缓态势。2025年一季度基建投资增速高达5.8%，上半年这一增速放缓至4.6%，前三季度这一增速 放缓至1.1%，而全年则出现下滑。为何如此？ 2026.01. 19 本文字 ...

Core Viewpoint - The infrastructure investment growth rate in China has experienced a rare decline in 2025, marking the first drop since 2014, with a total fixed asset investment of approximately 48.5 trillion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Trends - In 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2%, contrasting with previous years of high growth [1] - The growth rate of infrastructure investment has shown a "high at the beginning, low at the end" pattern, aligning with the overall economic growth pace, influenced by tight local finances and limited quality project reserves [1][2] - The monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2025 started at 5.8% in Q1 but slowed to 4.6% in H1 and further to 1.1% in Q3, ultimately resulting in an annual decline [1] Group 2: Funding Sources and Fiscal Policies - The main sources of funding for infrastructure investment include self-raised funds, national budget funds, domestic loans, foreign investment, and other funds, with a significant reduction in net financing from local government bonds due to strict regulations [3] - In 2025, public budget expenditures for infrastructure saw a decline, with agricultural, forestry, and water expenditures down 13.6%, and urban and rural community expenditures down 8.3% [3] - The fiscal expenditure structure is optimizing, with increased spending on social welfare sectors like education and healthcare, indicating a shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people" [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Government Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated a list of major projects and a central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling approximately 295 billion yuan, to support economic growth [6] - The 2026 fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be more proactive, which will support infrastructure investment and overall economic development [5] - Local governments have begun issuing bonds exceeding 2 trillion yuan in Q1 2026, directing funds towards significant project construction, such as the new high-speed railway project [6]

Core Viewpoint - The infrastructure investment growth rate in China has experienced a rare decline in 2025, marking the first drop since 2014, with a total fixed asset investment of approximately 48.5 trillion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Trends - In 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2%, contrasting with previous years of high growth [1] - The growth rate of infrastructure investment has shown a "high at the beginning, low at the end" pattern, aligning with the overall economic growth pace, influenced by tight local finances and limited quality project reserves [2][1] - The monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2025 started at 5.8% in Q1 but slowed to 4.6% in H1 and further to 1.1% in Q3, ultimately resulting in an annual decline [1] Group 2: Funding Sources and Fiscal Policy - The main sources of funding for infrastructure investment include self-raised funds, national budget funds, domestic loans, foreign investment, and other funds, with a significant reduction in net financing from local government bonds due to strict regulations [3] - In 2025, the general public budget expenditure for infrastructure investment saw a decline, with agricultural, forestry, and water expenditures down 13.6%, and urban and rural community expenditures down 8.3% [3] - The fiscal expenditure structure is optimizing, with increased spending on social welfare sectors like education and healthcare, indicating a shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people," which may not immediately reflect in infrastructure investment but supports long-term human capital development [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The 2026 economic outlook is expected to improve, with a projected GDP growth of 5.0% and a focus on stabilizing investment, increasing central budget investment, and optimizing local government bond usage [4] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with significant national projects entering the preparatory phase, suggesting that once funding is secured, these projects can drive economic growth [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated early projects for 2026, with a total investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the modern infrastructure system [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to recover to standard or even overweight allocation levels due to improved industry sentiment and performance indicators such as revenue, profit, and gross margin starting from Q2 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current State of Chemical Sector**: The basic chemical and petrochemical sectors are currently under-allocated, although there has been a recent uptick. Historical data suggests that these sectors typically outperform the market in the first two quarters following the initiation of a five-year plan [3][4]. - **Impact of European Capacity Closures**: Europe has closed approximately 11 million tons of chemical production capacity since 2023, alleviating supply-demand pressures in both domestic and international markets [1][6]. - **Investment in Infrastructure**: The State Grid's planned investment of 4 trillion RMB over the next five years is expected to drive demand in related chemical sectors [1][6]. Subsector Highlights - **Refrigerants**: The refrigerant sector is anticipated to maintain high levels of profitability due to the ongoing implementation of quota schemes. Prices are expected to stabilize at high levels, with shorter procurement cycles for downstream air conditioning manufacturers [1][5]. - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Phosphate rock prices remain stable, supported by unexpected demand in energy storage. Recent price increases in glyphosate and other pesticide varieties indicate a positive outlook for this sector [1][7]. Oil Price Projections - Oil prices are projected to stabilize between $55 and $60 per barrel in 2026, with potential geopolitical factors causing temporary spikes. The overall sentiment regarding oil prices remains optimistic, which is crucial for the petrochemical sector [2][11]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **High-Performing Sectors**: The refrigerant and phosphate chemical sectors are highlighted as areas of sustained high sentiment and favorable market expectations for investment in 2026 [1][5][17]. - **Recovery Potential**: Sectors currently experiencing low sentiment, such as refining and polyester, organic silicon, and PVC, may see a rebound due to limited new capacity and price elasticity [17][12]. - **Traditional Chemical Stocks**: Companies with reasonable or undervalued valuations, such as Wanhua Chemical and Huayu Chemical, may present opportunities for valuation recovery if industry sentiment improves [13][17]. Emerging Trends - **New Materials**: The new materials sector is expected to see continuous demand growth driven by applications in robotics, aerospace, and biofuels. Key areas include electronic chemicals and lightweight materials [14][18]. - **AI and Semiconductor Growth**: The development of AI applications and semiconductor chips is anticipated to drive sustained demand growth in the coming years [15]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for recovery, with specific subsectors like refrigerants and phosphates showing strong potential. Investment strategies should focus on both high-performing sectors and those with recovery potential, while keeping an eye on emerging trends in new materials and technology applications [1][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent National Ecological Environment Protection Work Conference emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year" plan for ecological environment protection and the construction of a beautiful China, marking a significant milestone in ecological civilization and environmental protection efforts in the country [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Importance - The "14th Five-Year" period is crucial for laying the foundation for socialist modernization and achieving the second centenary goal, with a focus on significant progress in beautiful China construction [2][3]. - The construction of a beautiful China is linked to the overall realization of socialist modernization and is a key aspect of the economic and social development goals set by the 20th National Congress [2] Group 2: Implementation Mechanisms - Strengthening the party's leadership in beautiful China construction is essential, with a comprehensive responsibility system established that includes central coordination, provincial accountability, and local implementation [2][3]. - The implementation system for beautiful China construction will be improved, with a focus on integrating pollution prevention and ecological protection efforts [2][3]. Group 3: Major Goals and Tasks - The main goals for the next five years include forming a green production and lifestyle, achieving carbon peak targets, and establishing a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system [3][4]. - Continuous efforts will be made to advance pollution prevention and ecological system optimization, alongside the promotion of a new energy system and green lifestyle [3][4]. Group 4: Action Plans - High-quality planning for the "14th Five-Year" beautiful China construction will be developed, outlining strategic tasks, major projects, and key initiatives [4]. - The implementation of special planning for key areas will be prioritized, focusing on air quality improvement, water ecological environment protection, and nuclear safety [4].

Core Viewpoint - By 2035, Shanghai aims to double its per capita GDP compared to 2020, with significant advancements in various sectors and the establishment of a modern international metropolis with global influence [1]. Economic Growth and Development Goals - Shanghai's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, synchronizing with national growth, and enhancing overall productivity [1]. - The plan includes a focus on manufacturing, service sector innovation, and the development of a modern rural industrial system [1]. Key Industries and Technological Advancements - Shanghai will prioritize agile development in quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, controlled nuclear fusion, biomanufacturing, and sixth-generation mobile communications [1][4]. - The city aims to strengthen its position in three leading industries: integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, promoting comprehensive breakthroughs across the entire industry chain [4]. Financial Sector Development - Shanghai plans to enhance its international financial center status by establishing a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center, and by promoting the Shanghai International Financial Asset Trading Platform [5]. - The city will focus on developing technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to support small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. International Trade and Shipping - The plan includes strengthening trade hub functions, expanding high-value product imports and exports, and promoting digital trade [6]. - Shanghai aims to enhance its international shipping center status by improving its global air and sea hub capabilities [6]. Innovation and Talent Development - The city will deepen basic research and focus on high-risk, high-value foundational research to produce significant original outcomes [7]. - There will be an emphasis on creating a talent development system that aligns with innovation and entrepreneurship [7]. High-Level Reform and Opening Up - Shanghai's strategy includes deepening high-level reforms and opening up to enhance the vitality of various business entities and to create a new open economic system [9][11]. - The city will focus on optimizing state-owned enterprise reforms and supporting the growth of the private economy [9]. Market Reforms and Infrastructure - The plan aims to eliminate barriers in factor acquisition and improve logistics costs through comprehensive reforms [10]. - Shanghai will establish a global technology trading hub and enhance data element circulation mechanisms [10].

李贻伟在报告中指出，过去一年，在中共广东省委、广州市委的坚强领导下，市政协深入学习贯彻中共 二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真学习领悟习近平总书记视察广东和出席第十五届全国运动会开幕式 重要讲话重要指示精神，紧扣"拼经济、保安全，办全运、提品质"工作主线，坚持发扬民主和增进团结 相互贯通、建言资政与凝聚共识双向发力，组织动员各参加单位、广大政协委员认真履职尽责，为推动 广州高质量发展作出了积极贡献。 报告从七个方面回顾总结了2025年的主要工作：一是围绕建设现代化产业体系集智献策，在培育新兴产 业、巩固优势产业、促进服务业优质高效等方面提出系列高质量建议；二是围绕激活科创动能献计出 力，助力创新平台建设、创新成果转化和夯实人才支撑；三是围绕优化营商环境出谋划策，推动市场化 法治化国际化一流营商环境建设与高水平开放平台构建；四是围绕促进城乡区域协调发展建言发声，积 极响应省"百千万工程"，着眼激活存量资源、强化品牌效应，推动下好区域协调发展"一盘棋"；五是围 绕推进城市高效能治理调研协商，在优化交通治理、筑牢安全防线、建设绿美广州等方面提出实招；六 是围绕提高人民健康水平履职尽责，推动医疗服务提质、全民健康数智化 ...

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中央纪委国家监委网站 吕佳蓉 "更加坚决有力地贯彻落实党中央重大决策部署，更加科学有效地把权力关进制度笼子，更加清醒坚定 地推进反腐败斗争"，在二十届中央纪委五次全会上，习近平总书记从党和国家事业发展全局的战略高 度，对以更高标准、更实举措推进全面从严治党，为实现"十五五"时期目标任务提供坚强保障作出战略 部署。 认真学习、深刻领会习近平总书记重要讲话精神，广大纪检监察干部一致表示，将紧紧围绕实现"十五 五"时期目标任务做深做实政治监督，推动全党进一步夯实坚持党中央权威和集中统一领导的思想基 础，进一步增强拥护"两个确立"、做到"两个维护"的政治自觉、思想自觉、行动自觉，更加坚决有力地 把党中央重大决策部署落到实处。 ——贯彻落实党中央重大决策部署，是维护党中央权威和集中统一领导的根本要求，监督保障党中央重 大决策部署贯彻落实，纪检监察机关责无旁贷。 1月15日，中央纪委国家监委驻中国人保纪检监察组召开全体党员干部会议，认真学习习近平总书记在 二十届中央纪委五次全会上的重要讲话精神。 转自：中央纪委国家监委网站 "贯彻落实党中央重大决策部署是具体的、实践的，必须时时处处事事自觉同党中央精神对标对表，结 合实际 ...