Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is that the interruption of Russian oil exports has disrupted short - term supply, and one should wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The "blockade sanctions" imposed by the US on two major Russian oil giants on October 22 are the main disruptive factors, which have pushed up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. However, the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited, and the supply side shows short - term tightness but strong medium - to - long - term adaptability [6]. - The demand side shows a situation of regional differentiation and overall weakness. The sanctions have forced changes in the import patterns of major consumer countries. Global oil demand growth is weak, and actual oil consumption capacity is lower than expected, offsetting the risk of supply disruptions caused by geopolitics. The expected warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere may further suppress heating oil demand, so the demand side cannot provide strong upward momentum for oil prices [7]. - Short - term: Wait and see, beware of further corrections. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. Although the decline of oil prices has accelerated under the influence of this round of trade frictions, the medium - to - long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, and oil price fluctuations may increase [8]. Summary by Directory Overview - The interruption of Russian oil exports due to US sanctions has disrupted short - term supply. The sanctions have affected about 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, mainly pushing up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. Other supply sources are filling the gap, but the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited. The demand side is weak, with regional differentiation and overall lack of upward momentum for oil prices [6][7]. Macro - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated again, and the gold - oil ratio has increased. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [26][32][37]. Supply - OPEC is continuously increasing production. The eight participating countries in OPEC + are adjusting their production, and the reduction in production is being gradually lifted. The 9 - month production increase completion rate of OPEC 8 is 80%, and institutional statistics show nearly 1 million barrels per day. OPEC's maritime exports remain at a low level with no obvious increase [10][45][46]. - The supply situations of various countries/regions vary. For example, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have certain idle production capacities; the demand for some grades of oil in Guyana is strong; Russia's refinery capacity has been damaged, but its crude oil export potential has increased; the production of US shale oil is facing challenges [11][12]. Demand - Asian strategic reserve procurement has slowed down. Chinese refiners are consuming inventory, and the demand for spot imports has weakened. Indian refineries' procurement decisions have been affected by US sanctions, but their interest in Russian oil has reignited recently. North American, European, and Asian refineries are entering the seasonal maintenance period, and direct crude oil demand has temporarily weakened [13][14]. Inventory - US commercial inventories have increased, while the inventory in the Cushing area is still significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are oscillating strongly, European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are being depleted. Domestic refined oil margins are rebounding [89][91][93]. Price and Spread - In the global crude oil spot market, the sanctions on Russia have led to an increase in Middle - Eastern quotations. Middle - Eastern crude oil discounts have surged, the US export situation is favorable, the North Sea market is stable, the outlook for low - sulfur crude oil in the Mediterranean is bearish, and the West African market is affected by weak Chinese demand [97][99].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US economy may oscillate between recession and stagflation, with potential fluctuations in trade barriers between the US and China [2] - It suggests that trade tensions between China and the US are unlikely to ease quickly, and if China adopts a tougher stance, the risks associated with US assets may increase [2] - The Chinese market is expected to return to low volatility pricing, with a mid-term focus on value, oscillating between risk aversion and pro-cyclical strategies [2] Group 2 - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook for sectors such as insurance, non-ferrous metals, energy, advanced technology internet, military trade, and industries combating "involution" [2] - In the short term, it recommends reducing growth-style holdings further [2] Group 3 - The report highlights that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, compared to an expected 3.1% and a previous value of 2.9% [7] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, matching the previous value but below expectations [7] Group 4 - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant rebounds, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.62%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 3.91%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 5.2% [8] - The A-share market also experienced a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.88% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [12][27] Group 5 - The report notes that the technology and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains in the industry, with technology rising by 7.47% and advanced manufacturing by 4.1% [27] - Within the technology sector, hardware sub-industries outperformed, particularly in communication equipment and electronic components [27]

中国作为全球最大的大豆市场，近几个月来因为关税的问题，停止采购美国大豆，转而大量进口巴西的大豆。不过，巴西 自己以为坐稳了头把交椅，竟然还敢涨价，报价比美国豆还高。中国买家不买账，立刻转向大量进口阿根廷的大豆。这一 招，差点让巴西的大豆出口商跌眼镜。 据中国大豆产业协会通报，目前巴西大豆在港口的报价，比芝加哥期货交易所11月的合约，贵了2.8到2.9美元每蒲，比美国 大豆多出大约1.7美元的溢价。 这么高的溢价，中国的买家可不傻，直接暂停了12月和明年1月从巴西进的大豆采购。而另一边，咱中国开始增加阿根廷大 豆的采购力度，据外媒9月底的消息，短短两天就订了20船，大概130万吨阿根廷大豆。 说实话，巴西这招真不怎么聪明，要是他们觉得眼下中美正打关税战，中国又不买美国大豆，抢下中国的订单看似稳妥， 有啥不敢的，但他们似乎忘了，一点儿也不只有巴西能出大豆，阿根廷、俄罗斯也都能供应，选择还挺多的。 考虑到这些状况，这次中美马来西亚的会谈中，大豆问题很可能会被提及，估计美方有可能会在某个方面松一口气，促使 中方重新购买美国的大豆，同时咱们也能借此给巴西一点压力。这都只是推测，最终的结果还得等官方公告来定。 回头想想巴 ...

中国是全球最大的豆类消费国，最近因为关税问题停止了购买美国大豆，转而从巴西采购。然而，巴西大豆出口商以为自 己稳坐了"头把交椅"，结果却在涨价时犯了个大错误——他们的价格竟然比美国大豆还要高。面对这种情况，中国的买家 立刻转向了阿根廷，进行大规模大豆进口。这一反击让巴西大豆出口商大吃一惊。 根据中国大豆产业协会的消息，目前巴西大豆的港口报价，比芝加哥期货交易所11月的报价高出2.8到2.9美元每蒲，而美国 大豆的溢价则为1.7美元。如此高的价格，显然让中国买家感到不值，最终决定暂停了12月和明年1月的巴西大豆采购。与 此同时，中国加大了对阿根廷大豆的采购，9月底的报道显示，在短短两天内，中国就订购了20船，约130万吨的阿根廷大 豆。 说实话，巴西的这一举动相当不明智。在他们看来，中国因中美关税战而停止购买美国大豆，巴西的大豆订单是稳稳的"香 饽饽"，于是觉得此时不涨价更待何时。但巴西显然忽视了一点——大豆不是芯片，也不是石油，这不是只有巴西能供应的 商品，阿根廷、俄罗斯等国家也能提供。尤其是阿根廷，刚刚取消了农产品出口税，大豆的出口关税从26%降为0，价格相 比美国大豆便宜了100到150美元/吨，简直是" ...

中国宣布停止从美国采购大豆，并与巴西签订了长期供应协议。这一举措给美国中西部的农业州带来了 巨大压力，削弱了美国在对华贸易中的优势。 四、国际社会的反应 美国试图拉拢盟友一起对中国施 压，但许多国家的态度并不如美国所愿： - 日本和韩国：这两个国家的经济高度依赖中国市场，因此明 确表示不会在中美之间选边站队。 - 印度：美印关系因贸易协议和克什米尔问题而紧张，印度更倾向于 在大国之间保持平衡，而非站在美国一方。 - 欧洲：欧洲国家普遍对美国的强硬政策持谨慎态度，许多 国家更愿意与中国保持合作，而非对抗。 五、结果与影响 1. 对美国的影响 美国股市因关税威胁和供应 链问题出现剧烈波动，市值蒸发超过1.65万亿美元。同时，美国农民因中国停止采购大豆而面临经济损 失，部分州甚至爆发了抗议活动。波音公司也因零部件供应问题可能失去中国市场份额，面临双重压 力。 2. 对中国的意义 中国通过稀土出口管制和港务费反制等措施，有效捍卫了自身的经济利益，并进一步 推动了高科技领域的自主发展。中国展现了强大的产业链韧性和在国际经济中的话语权，巩固了在全球 供应链中的核心地位。 六、总结 美国虽然通过加征关税、技术封锁和供应链断 ...

特朗普口风突变，关税大棒挥舞中的博弈与算计 坦白而言，中美关税战发展至今，中方早已看穿了美国"关税大棒"的虚实。即便对中国加征100%关税，虽然会带来短期阵痛，但从长远来看，美国经济受 到的冲击将更为严重。特朗普本人也曾承认，这种级别的关税"对美国经济而言是不可持续的"。 正因如此，即便中方不做出任何让步，美方也可能因为自身经济压力而主动收回部分关税命令。在此背景下，中方更没有理由答应特朗普提出的任何额外条 件。 近日，美国总统特朗普态度出现微妙转变，公开表示"愿意考虑降低对中国关税"，然而这一表态并非无条件，其背后潜藏着对中国提出的两个特定要求。 当地时间10月19日，特朗普在从佛罗里达返回华盛顿的专机上，向外界透露了其可能调整对华关税政策的风声。他认为，中国正因关税问题向美国支付巨额 款项，并相信中方也希望看到这一负担减轻。特朗普话锋一转，强调在此过程中，中国方面也必须拿出相应的对等"回报"。 值得注意的是，这距离特朗普放出"下个月1日将对中国商品加征100%关税"的狠话，仅仅过去了不到十天。在此之前，关于是否会全面加征关税的消息，多 出自其团队口中，暗示着一定程度的回旋余地。然而，此次特朗普亲自出面，打 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].

Core Viewpoint - Trump has indicated a willingness to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, contingent upon China meeting two specific conditions: changing its stance on rare earths and resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans [3][6][11]. Group 1: Trump's Statements - On October 19, Trump mentioned the possibility of reducing tariffs on Chinese products while emphasizing that China must provide some concessions in return [3]. - This statement marks a significant shift from his previous declaration of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods [3][5]. - Trump expressed frustration over China's actions regarding rare earths and reiterated the importance of soybean purchases from the U.S. [6][8]. Group 2: China's Response - China is expected to reject Trump's conditions, as it has already prepared for a trade conflict and is unwilling to concede on core interests [11][15]. - The Chinese government has indicated that it will not close the door on negotiations but is ready to respond to U.S. actions [14][15]. - China's measures, such as halting soybean purchases and controlling rare earth exports, are seen as effective countermeasures against U.S. tariffs [14][17]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's acknowledgment that a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable for the U.S. economy suggests that the U.S. may need to reconsider its approach [14][17]. - The ongoing trade tensions have escalated beyond tariffs, with broader implications for U.S.-China relations and economic stability [10][14].

Core Points - The US and Australia finalized a critical mineral framework agreement on October 20, 2025, involving an $8.5 billion project focused on the extraction and processing of rare earth and other strategic minerals [1] - The agreement aims to strengthen the supply chain, particularly in the rare earth sector, reducing US reliance on external sources [1][8] - The US Export-Import Bank is providing approximately $2.2 billion in financing to support specific projects under this agreement [1] Investment and Production - On the day of the agreement, the US announced plans to invest in a gallium refining plant in Western Australia with an annual capacity of 100 tons, expected to cover about 10% of global gallium supply [3] - The total investment from both US and Australian governments is projected to exceed $3 billion in the coming months [3] - The agreement supports the development of mineral deposits valued at $53 billion, including resources like rare earths, lithium, and nickel [3][8] Industry Context - Australia has significant rare earth mineral reserves but limited domestic processing capabilities [5] - The Kalgoorlie plant in Western Australia, set to begin operations in November 2024, will be Australia's first rare earth processing facility with a capacity of 30,000 tons per year [5] - Lynas Corporation's Malaysian facility is the second-largest rare earth separation plant globally, relying heavily on Chinese technology and equipment [5][6] Geopolitical Implications - The agreement is a response to ongoing US-China trade tensions, particularly regarding rare earth exports [8] - China currently dominates the rare earth market, controlling over 69% of global production and 80% of processing [6][8] - The US has threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not make concessions regarding rare earth exports [3][8]

Core Points - The article discusses Canada's independent response to U.S. tariffs and China's retaliatory measures, highlighting its strategic autonomy in trade relations [1][2][3][5][7][10]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and Canadian Response - Since the strategic standoff between the U.S. and China, the U.S. has attempted to pressure China by excluding its products from global supply chains, implementing high tariffs on imports from various countries, including a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum [1]. - In response to U.S. pressure, Canada announced a 25% additional tax on steel and aluminum products containing Chinese components, alongside a 100% tariff on electric vehicles from China [1][2]. Group 2: China's Retaliation - China retaliated against Canada by imposing 100% tariffs on canola oil, oilseed meal, and peas, and a 25% tariff on seafood and pork, significantly impacting Canada's agricultural sector [2]. - Canada, being the largest canola exporter globally, faced severe economic consequences, with canola exports to China projected to reach approximately $3.63 billion in 2024, accounting for over half of its total agricultural exports [2]. Group 3: Diplomatic Efforts and Trade Negotiations - In light of the dual pressures from the U.S. and China, Canadian officials have been visiting China to address the canola trade dispute, which is crucial for the stability of Canada's agricultural economy [2][10]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney met with President Trump to discuss trade barriers and tariffs, but did not make explicit commitments to strengthen North American trade restrictions [3]. Group 4: Tariff Adjustments and Industry Reactions - Canada announced a tariff exemption for certain steel and aluminum products that cannot be produced domestically, aimed at stabilizing supply chains, with specific details to be released later [3][5]. - The Canadian Steel and Aluminum Association expressed dissatisfaction with the exemptions, arguing that they could undermine the competitiveness of domestic producers [5][7]. Group 5: Strategic Autonomy and Future Outlook - Canada's actions reflect a pragmatic and independent economic policy, seeking to balance its interests amid U.S.-China tensions, while also negotiating tariff arrangements with the U.S. [7][10]. - The bilateral trade between Canada and China reached CAD 117.44 billion in 2024, indicating Canada's strategic moves may serve as a bellwether for increased autonomy among allies in the global trade landscape [7].