据看看新闻报道，7月30日，美国财政部长贝森特放话，威胁对持续购买俄油的中国加征最高500%关 税。中方当天两次回应，态度明确。 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开展新一轮会谈。双方当时达成共识，将继 续延长此前的关税休战期。外界本以为这是中美经贸关系回暖的信号，没成想短短两天后，贝森特就抛 出关税威胁。这种谈判桌上刚承诺"暂时不打"，转身就亮屠刀的操作，让人咋舌。 贝森特的威胁不是空穴来风。他提到，美国国会正推动相关立法，允许总统对购买受制裁俄罗斯石油的 国家征收二级关税，还称这一措施得到多个盟友支持。明眼人都能看出，美国此举是想借关税大棒，逼 迫中国停止购买俄油，进而卡住俄罗斯的能源命脉。 中国敢如此硬气，底气源于中俄扎实的能源合作根基。对中国来说，作为人口大国和全球主要能源消费 国，能源安全是国家发展的重中之重，绝不能被别人拿捏。要保障能源安全，多元化的能源来源是关 键，俄罗斯就是中国能源进口多元化战略中不可或缺的可靠伙伴。 对俄罗斯而言，受美西方经济封锁和战事影响，急需稳定的出口市场。中国持续增长的能源需求，与俄 罗斯丰富的油气资源形成天然互补，合作顺理成章。2023年，俄罗斯 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing tensions in U.S.-China relations, particularly in the context of trade negotiations and energy imports from Russia, with the U.S. acknowledging its limited leverage over China [1][3][5] - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. Treasury Secretary's admission that the U.S. lacks sufficient leverage to pressure China into abandoning Russian oil, indicating a shift in the dynamics of global trade and energy markets [3][5][11] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has previously had to make concessions in trade negotiations, as evidenced by the outcome of the tariff disputes, which suggests that the notion of a hard decoupling between the U.S. and China is overstated [3][5][11] Group 2 - The article outlines Trump's recent actions to impose new tariffs on several countries, excluding China, which may indicate a strategic approach to isolate China by treating its allies differently [7][9] - It notes the contrasting tariff rates imposed on Pakistan and India, suggesting a shift in U.S. foreign policy aimed at pressuring India to choose sides in the geopolitical landscape [9][11] - The article also highlights the relatively low tariff imposed on Brazil, indicating a calculated decision by the U.S. to avoid escalating tensions with a key member of the BRICS group while focusing on China as the primary target [9][11]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The relationship between PE (Polyethylene) and PP (Polypropylene) is strong, with concerns over rising propane prices due to tariffs impacting PP costs, leading to a narrowing price gap that even turned negative at one point [1] - Since May, as trade tensions eased, the price gap between PE and PP has been gradually returning to fundamentals, suggesting a potential resurgence in PE's bullish positioning [1] Group 2: Supply Side - As of July, the traditional maintenance season for polyolefins is coming to an end, with both PP and PE operating rates rebounding to around 85% [2] - There are more maintenance plans for PE than for PP before the National Day holiday, with 12 PE production lines (over 3 million tons capacity) scheduled for maintenance compared to 7 PP lines (230,000 tons capacity) [2] Group 3: Demand Side - The second half of the year is traditionally a peak demand season for polyolefins, with PE's peak demand starting in late July and expected to last until November, primarily driven by agricultural needs [6][3] - In contrast, PP's peak demand is more aligned with consumer spending during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and year-end holidays, making it more susceptible to macroeconomic conditions [6] Group 4: Import and Export Trends - Domestic PP capacity has expanded significantly, leading to reduced imports and a situation where exports exceed imports, resulting in a declining reliance on PP imports [7] - Conversely, PE still faces high import dependency due to a shortage of domestic high-end supply, although PE imports have decreased significantly this year, dropping to below 1 million tons in June, the lowest in seven years [7] Group 5: Summary - Trade tensions have caused the PE and PP price gap to hit a three-year low, but as these tensions diminish, expectations for PE in terms of supply, demand, and import/export dynamics are stronger than for PP, indicating a potential widening of the price gap in the future [8]

Group 1: Industrial Profitability - In June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in June was down 6.9% year-on-year, contributing a 6.9 percentage point drag on profit growth, although this was an improvement from the 10.2 percentage point drag in May[8] - Industrial production showed resilience with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in industrial added value, outperforming May's 5.8%[8] Group 2: Future Profitability Pressure - The second half of 2025 is expected to see continued pressure on corporate profitability due to potential depletion of U.S. demand from prior "import rush" activities[10] - Tariffs have increased costs for enterprises, impacting profit levels, similar to the trend observed during the last U.S.-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019[10] - Multiple industries are pushing for "anti-involution," which may further compress profit margins in sectors with weak downstream demand[25] Group 3: Resilience in Equipment Manufacturing - Equipment manufacturing has shown relative resilience, with profit margins performing better than other sectors since April 2025[26] - The mining industry has maintained a profit margin of around 31% since April 2025, despite revenue growth remaining negative[26] - Companies that have already expanded overseas or are establishing factories abroad are likely to capture more market share amid trade frictions[27][28]

Group 1 - Trump's recent Middle East visit resulted in significant military purchase contracts and investment commitments from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, totaling thousands of billions of dollars [1] - Qatar gifted Trump a Boeing aircraft, showcasing the high-level diplomatic relations during his visit [1] - Despite these apparent successes, Trump faces a critical situation with only 90 days remaining to address ongoing challenges, particularly in U.S.-China relations [1] Group 2 - Following the initiation of a tariff war in April, Trump granted a 90-day temporary tariff exemption to most trade partners, aiming to negotiate new trade agreements [3] - However, no country, except the UK, reached an agreement with the Trump administration, while China unexpectedly secured a tax reduction agreement with the U.S. [3] - This outcome indicates a failure of Trump's tariff strategy, as he did not achieve the concessions he anticipated from China [3] Group 3 - On May 14, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a 90-day suspension of export control measures against 28 U.S. entities, which previously restricted military-related exports [5] - Additionally, measures against 17 U.S. entities listed as "unreliable" will also be adjusted, allowing for a temporary reprieve from restrictions on trade and investment in China [6] - These actions are seen as a strategic move to ease tensions and facilitate the implementation of agreements reached during U.S.-China trade talks [8] Group 4 - The 90-day exemption period for U.S. companies is critical, as it hinges on Trump's actions and performance in the coming weeks [8] - Trump's recent statements indicate a willingness to engage with China, highlighting the strategic importance of U.S.-China relations on a global scale [8][10] - The urgency for Trump to resolve issues related to the supply of strategic minerals from China is underscored, as these resources are vital for U.S. technology and defense sectors [11] Group 5 - China has implemented strategic mineral export controls and is actively combating smuggling to protect its resource security [13] - The U.S. faces significant challenges in the rare earth sector due to technological limitations, which has become a critical vulnerability [13] - Trump's need for reconciliation with China is driven by the necessity to secure essential resources for U.S. industries [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Rare Earth Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the rare earth industry, highlighting the impact of government policies and market dynamics on supply and demand [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - The government has implemented strict controls on rare earth supply through quota indicators and technical regulations, leading to a tight supply-demand balance and stable price increases [1][3]. - The current rare earth market situation differs from historical trends, as it is not solely driven by the development of new energy vehicles and quota adjustments. The consolidation of six major rare earth groups has enhanced China's bargaining power [1][4]. - There is a significant price disparity between domestic and U.S. rare earth prices, with the U.S. Department of Defense purchasing prices being much higher than domestic market prices, which further stimulates domestic price increases [4][5]. - The international situation, U.S.-China trade tensions, and the bottoming out of metal prices create a favorable environment for the current rare earth market [1][6]. Investment Recommendations - Investment in the rare earth sector should focus on upstream resource segments. Recommended companies in the light rare earth category include Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, and Shenghe Resources, which have shown strong performance and reasonable valuations [1][7]. - For medium and heavy rare earths, China Minmetals and Guangsheng Nonferrous are recommended, with attention to their asset securitization potential [1][7]. - The permanent magnet materials sector is also worth monitoring, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Zhenhai Magnetic Materials showing competitive advantages and potential for growth in new applications [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - Recent policy changes since 2024 have tightened controls on the rare earth industry, including the inclusion of imported ores in quota indicators and strict management of upstream technology and personnel [3]. - The integration of six major rare earth groups into two has increased market control and bargaining power, which is expected to lead to more sustainable price increases compared to previous cycles [4][5]. - Future outlook factors include the strategic importance of rare earths amid U.S.-China trade tensions, the price disparity between domestic and international markets, and the potential for asset securitization following the consolidation of major groups [2][8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the Tianhong Xinyi 39-Month Regular Open Bond Fund, highlighting its investment strategy, performance metrics, and compliance with regulations [1][2][3]. Fund Overview - Fund Name: Tianhong Xinyi 39-Month Regular Open Bond Fund [3] - Fund Manager: Tianhong Fund Management Co., Ltd. [6] - Fund Trustee: Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. [6] - Total Fund Shares at Reporting Period End: 7,987,245,412.16 shares [3] - Investment Strategy: The fund adopts a strict buy-and-hold strategy, aiming for stable asset appreciation while controlling net value volatility [3]. Performance Metrics - Net Value Growth Rate for the past three months: 0.76% [8] - Net Value Growth Rate for the past six months: 1.41% [8] - Net Value Growth Rate for the past year: 2.91% [8] - Net Value Growth Rate since fund contract inception: 16.38% [8] Investment Composition - Total Value of Bonds Held: 15,015,091,759.87 RMB, accounting for 97.23% of total fund assets [12] - Value of Policy Financial Bonds: 6,821,641,371.69 RMB, representing 80.76% of net asset value [12] Compliance and Fair Trading - The fund operates in accordance with national laws and regulations, ensuring no violations of fund contract commitments [9] - Fair trading procedures are effectively implemented, with no reported incidents of unfair trading or profit transfer [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on imported anode-grade graphite from China, potentially raising the total tariff to 160% [2][4] - This move comes amidst recent high-level discussions between the U.S. and China, indicating a complex relationship where trade negotiations are ongoing while tariffs are being increased [4][5] - The U.S. aims to pressure China into concessions by leveraging tariffs, particularly on critical materials like graphite, which is essential for electric vehicle batteries [5][7] Group 2 - China is the largest producer of graphite globally, supplying two-thirds of the graphite imported by the U.S., making the tariff increase a significant cost burden for American companies [7] - The tariff increase could indirectly impact companies like Tesla, as it raises manufacturing costs for electric vehicles, leading to a decline in Tesla's stock price following the announcement [7][8] - The U.S. government's actions are perceived as contradictory to its stated desire for cooperation, raising concerns about the sincerity of its negotiation efforts with China [9]