咱先唠个投资圈里特扎心的事儿——你敢信吗？连被无数人奉为"股神"的巴菲特，也有亲手放走大肉的时刻。前阵子翻他的持仓报告，发现早几年他陆续减 仓了苹果股票，结果这么一卖，眼睁睁看着苹果股价接着涨，算下来足足少赚了500亿。这事儿一出来，好多朋友跟我吐槽："帮主，连巴菲特都踩这种坑， 咱普通人做中长线还咋搞啊？" 其实作为跑了20年财经线的记者，又沉在中长线投资里这么久，我特理解这种困惑。大家总觉得"股神"的决策就该万无一失，可实际上，再厉害的人也躲不 开"短期波动"和"长期价值"的拉扯。巴菲特当初减仓苹果，据说也是觉得当时股价涨得有点快，想落袋一部分利润——这心态咱普通人太熟了，手里的票涨 了点，就总怕回调，忍不住想"先卖了再说"，结果往往卖在半山腰。 作为一个跟市场打交道20年的人，帮主想跟大家说句实在话：投资没有"永远正确的神"，只有"不断贴近规律的人"。巴菲特卖飞苹果的500亿，不是提醒我 们"别学他"，而是提醒我们——做中长线，要更沉得住气，更看重标的的"长期护城河"，别被短期的涨跌牵着鼻子走。 以后再碰到"要不要卖"的纠结时，不妨多问自己一句：这公司的核心价值变了吗？如果没变，那短期的波动，或许只是长 ...

经济学家盘和林也说了，现在普通投资者的对手是国外投机资本和全球央行，这真不是咱们随便能"玩赢"的，这点我特别认同。做了20年财经报道，见过太 多人因为追高、盲目抄底栽跟头，行情好的时候觉得自己能赚快钱，行情一跌就慌了神，这恰恰是投资里最忌讳的。 所以这会儿大家别慌，也别乱。如果是想长期配置黄金，比如为了资产避险，那不妨等行情稳一稳，看清趋势再动手，中长线从来不是"赌一把"；如果只是 想短期投机赚快钱，那这次的教训可得记牢——市场从来不会顺着咱们的预期走。 我是帮主郑重，20年就琢磨一件事：怎么用实在的观察，帮大家避开投资里的坑。下次再遇到这种行情波动，咱们不慌不忙，接着聊最实用的门道。 10月21号那晚上，国际贵金属市场简直像突然踩了急刹车，黄金白银一起往下冲。现货黄金一下子跌了超6%，这可是2013年4月以来最狠的一次单日跌幅， 说"跌得比降温还猛"真不是夸张。国内更直接，单克金价一夜就跌了60多块，有的金饰克价甚至跌了83块，成都的周女士吐槽"再也不敢盲目追高"，福建有 个朋友更惨，之前订了1公斤黄金板料、15公斤白银板料，就1个小时，至少亏了5万。 还有人反过来想抄底，就像那位刘女士，前后下单十几笔，直 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index nearly 2%, and the ChiNext Index surging by 2.92% [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 11,632 billion, which is a decrease of 77 billion compared to the previous day, indicating that funds are still "testing" the market rather than fully committing [3] Sector Performance - The shale gas sector saw significant gains, with companies like DeSheng Co. and PetroChina hitting their daily limits, while sectors such as cultivated diamonds and storage chips also performed well [3] - In contrast, the coal and gas sectors experienced a downturn, with companies like Antai Group nearing a limit down and others like Baotailong and Changchun Gas also adjusting downwards, highlighting a stark contrast in sector performance [3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on stability rather than urgency in their investment decisions [4] - For those holding stocks in strong sectors like engineering machinery and storage chips, it is recommended to hold and observe as long as key support levels are not broken, rather than chasing high prices [3] - Investors should also be wary of low trading volumes; if the afternoon session does not see an increase in volume, it is advised not to increase positions even if indices rise [3]

Core Insights - Apple's stock price increased by 3.94%, reaching a historic high of $262.24, with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion, surpassing Microsoft to become the second-largest company in the U.S. by market value, trailing only Nvidia [1][3] Group 1 - The favorable macroeconomic environment, including improved trade relations, has boosted investor confidence, leading to increased investments in technology stocks [3] - The strong sales performance of Apple's products, particularly the iPhone 17, which saw early sales in China and the U.S. increase by 14% compared to the previous year's iPhone 16, is a significant factor in the stock's rise [3] - The basic model of the iPhone 17 has nearly doubled its sales in the Chinese market, indicating robust consumer demand [3] Group 2 - The growth in Apple's stock price is supported by solid product strength and market demand rather than mere market trends [3] - Continuous monitoring of Apple's product developments is essential for identifying long-term investment opportunities [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in undervalued assets rather than following market trends, suggesting that true investment opportunities lie in areas that are overlooked by the majority [1][3] Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a long-term investment strategy that involves buying when there is little interest and selling when there is significant hype, indicating that when everyone is aware of a trend, it is often too late to capitalize on it [3] - It compares the investment process to farming, where groundwork must be laid before planting, suggesting that investors should wait for the right moment when the market has stabilized before entering [3] Market Behavior - The article warns that market movements can be orchestrated by major players to mislead retail investors, highlighting the need for investors to be aware of the underlying actions of these market leaders [3] - It stresses that successful investing requires understanding the timing of market movements and not simply following the crowd [3]

今天宁德时代的三季报一出来，不少朋友跑来跑莱问我："帮主，这公司三季度揣进兜里185亿净利润，同比还涨了41%，这成绩到底够不够硬？后续该拿着 还是再等等？"我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，盯中长线投资靠的就是"估值、基本面、风口、资金面"这四套铁律，今天就用这法子跟大家掰开揉碎， 聊聊宁德时代这事儿。 先看最核心的基本面筛——这可是选股的根基。三季度1041.9亿营收、185亿净利，同比分别涨12.9%和41%，更关键的是扣非净利也涨了35%，这说明钱不 是靠卖资产、拿补贴赚的，是实打实的主营业务挣来的。要知道现在动力电池行业竞争多卷，宁德时代还能保持这增速，再加上它在全球的市占率一直稳坐 头把交椅，连麒麟电池的订单都排到后面了，基本面这块儿确实没掉链子。 总结下来，用这四铁律一卡，宁德时代目前的状态是"基本面稳、估值合理、风口没散、资金也认"。对咱们做中长线的来说，不用盯着短期一两天的涨跌慌 神，要是已经持有的，只要这四条逻辑没破，就不用轻易动。 帮主操作策略：不同风格，不同打法 • 对于稳健的长线投资者：如果你看好新能源未来十年的大趋势，能承受较大的股价波动，那么宁德时代可能是你组合中值得"压舱"的核 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant difference in investment outcomes over the past decade, highlighting the importance of choosing quality assets and the impact of inflation on wealth accumulation [1][3]. Investment Comparisons - Investing 1 million in Kweichow Moutai ten years ago would now be worth approximately 5 million, while Tencent would be valued at over 4 million. Real estate in Beijing would have appreciated to about 3.5 million. In contrast, keeping the money in a bank with a three-year fixed deposit rate would result in only about 1.3 million. The worst outcome is for those who frequently traded stocks, potentially reducing their investment to 600,000 [3]. Investment Principles - Three key investment truths are highlighted: 1. Quality equities are the best assets, as demonstrated by the sustained profit growth of companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tencent [3]. 2. Inflation acts as a hidden wealth killer, with an average annual inflation rate of about 5% over the past decade, making bank deposits insufficient [3]. 3. Blind trading is a primary cause of losses, as many investors attempt to time the market, often resulting in buying high and selling low [3]. Investment Strategies - Three practical investment recommendations are provided: 1. Selecting the right sectors is more important than timing the market, with consumer, healthcare, and technology sectors being highlighted as resilient [3]. 2. Implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy by regularly investing in quality funds or stocks can help smooth out risks [3]. 3. Patience is essential for wealth growth, as it requires time for investments to mature [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 2%, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index falling over 3%, while the North China 50 Index saw a decline of almost 4% [3] - Approximately 90% of the over 4,700 stocks in the market fell, indicating a heavy selling pressure despite an increase in trading volume compared to the previous day [3] Sector Performance - Previously strong sectors such as solar energy, energy storage, and semiconductors faced substantial declines, with leading stocks like Yangguang Electric Power dropping over 10% [3] - Conversely, defensive sectors like gas and precious metals showed resilience, with stocks such as Guo Xin Energy and Western Gold experiencing gains [3] Investment Strategy - For investors holding quality stocks with solid fundamentals, it is advised not to panic sell during this market correction, as selling at low prices could waste previous patience [3][4] - Investors who are currently in cash or lightly invested should avoid rushing to "catch the falling knife," and instead consider small positions in defensive sectors that performed well during the downturn [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility on October 16, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropping 17 points, while the Nasdaq gained nearly 150 points, indicating mixed market sentiment [1][3] - Early trading saw the DJIA rise over 400 points, but by the afternoon, it reversed course, reflecting uncertainty among traders [3] Economic Indicators - Market participants are awaiting two key factors: corporate earnings reports and updates on U.S.-China trade relations, as recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs have heightened concerns [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, contributing to cautious trading behavior [3] Corporate Earnings - Notable earnings reports from major banks like Bank of America and Morgan Stanley exceeded expectations, suggesting that the underlying economic conditions may be stronger than perceived [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the possibility of interest rate cuts remains open, and the process of balance sheet reduction may soon conclude, providing some reassurance to the market [3] Long-term Outlook - The focus for long-term investors should be on trade signals, the stability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and the sustainability of corporate earnings, as these factors will significantly influence market direction [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article emphasizes that the recent CPI decline of 0.3% is misleading, primarily due to food prices dragging down the overall index, with pork prices dropping by 17%, fresh vegetables by 13.7%, and eggs by 13.5% [3] - The focus should be on the core CPI, which, excluding food and energy, has increased by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand for durable goods like home appliances and electronics [3][4] - The PPI has decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting that the industrial sector is stabilizing and moving away from aggressive price competition [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that the current data reflects a gradual warming in the economy, with the core CPI indicating real demand recovery and the PPI showing a shift from harmful competition to healthy development within industries [4] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the October CPI may turn positive due to a lower base from last year, and the PPI is expected to stabilize or even slightly increase, indicating a more stable economic environment [4] - Investors are advised to focus on the warming segments within the core CPI, such as home appliances and consumer electronics, as well as the stabilizing industrial sectors within the PPI, rather than short-term fluctuations in food prices [4]