证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-06-27 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250624：Risk-off 阶段开启，risk-on 后转向成长 轮动变化的节奏来看，当前资金形态和风格节奏与 2024 年年初、2024 年 年末以及 2025 年 3 月末的风格轮动或有类似。初期均以 TMT 板块表现 为主，随后在量能逐步收窄的过程中，向上游资源、金融轮换，随后短期 向消费、制造板块和 TMT 等相对强势的板块略反弹，最后轮动回资源和 金融板块。当前宏观经济基本面相对 2024 年末和 2025 年 3 月末并未发 生根本性改变，后续的行业轮动变化的节奏可能延续前期的资金端行为 主导，经历过小盘的提升后，随着小盘轮动到极值，逐步向大盘价值、稳 定板块切换，短期以防御模式应对。 参考今年以来 ETF 净流入的方向， 防御模式下 A50、沪深 300 指数作为底仓，优先选择高股息中更为稳定 的银行、运营商、公用事业、家电龙头等稳定的板块进行防守。在政策力 度加强、市场明朗后，下一步的反攻方向优先选择筹码出清后的成长板 块，往政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co., Ltd. maintains an AA- credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting its strong product structure and customer quality, despite facing challenges in profitability and industry conditions [4][9]. Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of pesticide active ingredients, formulations, and fine chemical intermediates [11]. - The fine chemical segment has entered trial production, enhancing the company's product chain and competitiveness [6][11]. Financial Performance - Total assets as of March 2025 are 27.81 billion, with equity attributable to shareholders at 15.91 billion [4]. - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 3.22 billion, a decline from 10.44 billion in 2022, with a net profit of 0.15 billion, recovering from a loss of 0.42 billion in 2022 [4][5]. - The company’s operating cash flow has been negative, indicating challenges in cash generation [4]. Industry Environment - The pesticide industry is currently at a cyclical low, with a projected slight decline in revenue for 2024, while the net profit is expected to remain a loss of 0.39 billion [6][9]. - The global pesticide market is expected to grow from 790.6 billion in 2024 to 1,185.1 billion by 2031, driven by increasing food demand and pest control needs [14]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the commercialization of sodium-ion electrolyte products, which are not progressing as expected, leading to underutilization of production capacity [7][8]. - Environmental and safety production risks are heightened due to stricter regulations in the chemical industry [8][9]. Market Position - The company has a competitive edge in its core pesticide products, with significant market share in active ingredients like Fluorochloromethane and Quinclorac [15][16]. - The sales concentration remains low, with a diverse customer base, reducing dependency on a few clients [19]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency maintains a stable outlook for the company, anticipating gradual recovery in market demand and pricing for its main products [9][12]. - The company is actively managing inventory and production to align with market conditions, indicating a strategic approach to navigating current challenges [19].

基本面逐步走强，新技术表现突出 - 锂电 6 月月报及最新 观点解读 20260626 摘要 即使在悲观假设下，如美国储能需求减半、电动车销量减少 20 万辆及 中国储能零增长，锂电需求明年仍有望实现 16%以上同比增长，远超市 场悲观预期。若美国储能增长 20%，锂电需求增速或达 21%。 投资策略上，电池和碳酸锂环节是核心，可关注头部材料标的。推荐业 绩确定性强的电池龙头（亿纬、科达利）、材料环节（尚泰）、磷酸铁 锂头部公司（中科电气、璞泰来）及新技术方向（天奈）。左侧布局碳 酸锂，关注头部公司接单和 7 月排产数据，期待价格修复。 锂电板块整体市值未完全反映业绩预期，电池环节、结构件环节以及三 元正极和前驱体环节的业绩确定性较强，显示出被低估的迹象，值得关 注。 2026 年中国乘用车市场销量增长主要驱动力是供给侧改革，新车型上 市预计带来至少 80 万辆增量，保守估计可托底实现 15%的整体增长， 小鹏、小米、领跑等车企可能具有较大销量弹性。 Q&A 2026 年全球锂电需求增长的悲观预期主要基于哪些因素，而实际测算结果如 何？ 市场对 2026 年锂电需求增长的悲观预期主要源于以下几个方面：美国 I ...

Group 1: Industry Events - Multiple conferences related to solid-state batteries are being held, indicating a rapid acceleration in the industrialization of solid-state batteries driven by policy and market factors [1] - The Fifth China International Solid-State Battery Technology Conference and the 2025 Advanced Battery Materials and Intelligent Equipment Technology Exhibition took place in Hefei on June 19, followed by the first Lithium Sulfide and Sulfide Solid-State Battery Forum in Suzhou on June 25 [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - Since 2025, China has been implementing policies to accelerate the development of the solid-state battery industry, including the "New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan" which identifies solid-state batteries as a key focus area [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has introduced new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries, effective from July 1, 2026, emphasizing the importance of safety performance in solid-state batteries [2] Group 3: Industry Standards - In April 2025, MIIT included solid-state batteries in its overall planning and initiated the development of a standard system for solid-state batteries to expedite their industrialization [3] - The China Automotive Engineering Society introduced a method for determining solid-state batteries, clarifying definitions and testing methods, which is crucial for technological upgrades and industrial applications [3] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Companies in the solid-state battery supply chain are accelerating technological breakthroughs and industrialization, with CATL revealing plans for small-scale production of solid-state batteries by 2027 [4] - Guoxuan High-Tech has launched new technologies and products, including the second-generation Jinshi solid-state battery, currently in trial production [4] - Jiangsu Longpan Technology is developing solid-state battery precursors, with some materials already sent for testing to leading companies [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Despite current challenges in technology and cost, solid-state batteries are expected to gain market penetration once these issues are resolved, with a potential market acceleration in the next five years [5] - A report indicates that 2026 to 2028 will be critical for the mass production of various solid-state battery technologies, with the sulfide route likely to achieve mass production first in 2026 [5]

以下文章来源于高工产研 ，作者GGII 高工产研 . 2025年5月中国锂电产业链投资扩产项目汇总表 从环节分布看，锂电池回收、固态电池及材料成为主要投资方向，各占7个项目，合计占比 近50%，反映出行业向技术迭代与循环经济双轮驱动的转型趋势。其他环节中，锂电池及 PACK项目6个，包括海四达马来西亚圆柱动力电池项目、比亚迪欧洲总部和研发中心两个海 外项目。 从投资规模来看，5月锂电产业链平均单个项目投资额约13.8亿元，较2024年同期有所下 降，仅有金晟新能源湖北黄冈基地一个百亿级规划项目，当前锂电产业投资更趋理性。 从项目区域分布来看，主要集中于长三角江苏、湖北、江西及广东及等锂电产业集聚区，海 外布局项目三个（涉及马来西亚、匈牙利、阿曼）。 | | | 灰竹矿 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钠电池 | 苏州固能 | 钠电池、储能微 电网系统集成 | 3GWh电 池及微网 集成 | 10 | 签约 | 江苏 | 南京 | | | 昌意钠电 | 钠电池 | 3GWh | 1 | 开工 | 云南 | 最准 | ...

9大期刊联合征文｜投稿2025智能机器人关键技术大会，年底正刊发表！ 详细会议介绍参看往期文章： （点击蓝字跳转） 报名开启｜顶流期刊征+2025智能机器人关键技术大会盛会将至！ 展览展示｜抢位2025智能机器人关键技术大会！高曝光商务合作虚位以待，共赴解锁新机遇 近日，工业和信息化部印发通知，部署开展国家重点研发计划高新技术成果产业化试点工作。将聚焦国家重点研发计划先 进制造、新材料领域高新技术成果，以试点工作为牵引，强化产业供需对接、活化创新主体动力、优化产业化服务保障， 充分撬动人才、资金、政策等资源，通过中试熟化、孵化、市场推广、产业链整合等途径，加快推动科研成果向规模化生 产、市场化运营阶段转化，以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，支撑建设以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。 按照自主申报、兼顾不同主体、先进带动示范的原则，分试点区域和试点单位两大类申报。试点单位按照在成果产业化工 作中承担的角色不同，分为产业化实施类、第三方服务类、金融服务类等三类主体申报。 关 于开展国家重点研发计划高新技术成果产业化试点工作的通知 工信厅高新函〔2025〕231号 各省、自治区、直辖市及新疆兵团工业和信息化、高新技术 ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Valuation - As of June 25, 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 2.25% since the beginning of the year, slightly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.61 percentage points. The solid-state battery index has surged by 24.86%, significantly exceeding the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 24.22 percentage points [15][16] - The overall PE (TTM) of the lithium battery sector is 24 times, indicating that the sector is still at a historical low valuation after more than three years of deep adjustments [16] Group 2: Lithium Battery Downstream Demand - The global new energy vehicle (NEV) market continues to grow, with China being the largest driving force. From January to May 2025, China's NEV sales reached 5.608 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with domestic sales accounting for 84.8% [20][29] - The penetration rate of NEVs in China reached 44% in the first five months of 2025, up 3 percentage points from 2024, indicating a strong momentum in electric vehicle adoption [22] - NEV exports from China are expected to maintain growth, with 855,000 units exported from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.6%, making NEVs a key driver of automotive exports [29] Group 3: Industry Profitability and Marginal Improvement - The lithium battery industry is expected to see a continued marginal improvement in profitability, with net profit for 2024 projected to decline at a slower rate. In Q1 2025, net profit increased by 27.44% year-on-year and 63.06% quarter-on-quarter [61][64] - Inventory levels have bottomed out and are recovering, with total inventory reaching 216.29 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, a 10.07% increase from the end of 2024 [69] - Capital expenditures have continued to decrease, reflecting a slowdown in capacity expansion due to temporary overcapacity in the industry [73] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Industrialization - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction due to their high energy density and safety advantages. They are expected to become the next generation of lithium batteries, with several major automakers planning to introduce solid-state battery vehicles by 2027 [80][82] - The industrialization process of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with semi-solid batteries already in mass production and full solid-state batteries expected to start small-scale production around 2027 [80][82] - The demand for solid-state batteries is being driven by the growth of new energy vehicles and low-altitude economy applications, creating structural demand in the materials and equipment sectors [80][82] Group 5: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the battery and materials sectors that are experiencing fundamental improvements, particularly those with technological and capacity advantages in solid-state battery core materials and equipment [6][28] - Key investment targets include companies such as CATL, EVE Energy, and others that are well-positioned to benefit from the solid-state battery transition [6][28]

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 2025（第三届）中国固态电池 技 术 发 展 与 市 场 展 望 高 峰 论 坛 -广告- 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 近日，小米 " 固态电池复合电极与制备方法及包含其复合电极的固态电池" 专利正式公布；比亚迪宣布将 在2027年实现左右启动全固态电池批量示范装车应用；国外，日产汽车宣布计划在2028年推出首款采用 固态电池技术的车型。主要车企和动力电池企业固态电池上车渐行渐近，这也引发了其它车企对于固态电 池的关注，甚至部分车企高层直言"若2028年前无法实现固态电池上车，将面临市场份额断崖式下跌"。 固态电池的产业化进程，正从单一技术突破转向全产业链协同。上游材料企业加速布局硫化物电解质原料 产能；中游设备商如赢合科技已经成功向国内电池企业交付了首批固态电池设备 ，包括固态湿法涂布设 备、固态辊压设备以及固态电解质转印设备 ；下游车企则通过 "股权投资+订单绑定"双重手段锁定产能。 随着 2028年的临近， 固态电池已从"技术选项"变为"生存刚需"。 这场竞赛的胜负手，不仅在于实验室 数据，更在于量产良率、成本控制、供 ...

设备是固态电池量产的关键，需解决固态电池电极与电解质界面接触、电极高效制备的难题，目前主要 路线为硫化物路线，配套的工艺设备都有所变化。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，近两年全固态电池研发明显提速，国内头部企业已实现中试 线级别生产，硫化物路线成为主流技术方向。工信部2024年5月成立60亿元固态基金推动行业发展，宁 德时代(300750.SZ)等企业预计2027年前后实现小批量生产，上汽集团(6000104.SH)、比亚迪(002594.SZ) 等车企计划2026年开始装车。设备端干法电极、等静压等新工艺需求爆发，相关设备厂商已实现技术突 破。 招商证券主要观点如下： 近两年全固态电池研发加快，产品逐渐从实验室走向中试线，容量也提升到60-70Ah 头部电池厂也已实现中试线级别生产，车端预计26年将实现陆续装车。目前硫化物成为主要路线，对界 面接触要求更高，配套设备工艺变化主要体现在干法电极、叠片+软包、等静压、高压化成分容等方 面。部分设备企业已有所突破，有望助力固态电池规模化应用。 全固态电池研发加速 近两年，在政策的推动下，国内全固态电池研发逐渐从实验室走向中试线，整体开始加速。工信部202 ...

近日，王思聪的北京寰聚商业管理有限公司（下称寰聚商业）发生股东变更，"澳门赌王"何鸿燊之子何猷君成为公司新任董事长。6月20日，何猷君还以 北京寰聚商管和星竞威武集团董事长的身份，参加了寰聚商管在山东泰安举行的产品发布会，把电竞元素引入寰聚原有的文旅版图。而这个山东泰安的文 旅正是王思聪"穿着休闲鞋"谈来的，那次谈判也上了热搜。 天眼查显示寰聚商业在6月19日发生股权变更，武汉星竞威武文体发展有限公司成为持股40%的大股东，而武汉星竞威武文体发展有限公司的董事长兼 CEO就是澳门赌王之子何猷君。其控股的星竞威武 (香港) 有限公司100%实控武汉星竞威武文体发展有限公司，这意味着何猷君收购了寰聚商业。 此次变动之前，寰聚商业由王思聪通过其控制的杭州艾亢企业管理有限公司、杭州杯盏商业管理有限公司，持有70%股份。完成变更后，王思聪彻底退出 寰聚商业。 | 分时 日K 周K 月K | 拉长 缩短 前复权 | | --- | --- | | 星亮威武 MA5: 1.54 MA10: 1.56 MA20: 1.46 MA60: 1.58 | | "楼二代"王思聪和"赌二代"何猷君突然同时上了热搜。 | 大同良言 | ...