Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery and high-quality development, which will support the stability of the RMB exchange rate despite external uncertainties [1][2] - The economic foundation of China is solid, with recent policy measures from the Central Political Bureau aimed at enhancing economic performance [1] - The balance of international payments is stable, with foreign trade enterprises diversifying markets and responding quickly to global demand [1] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market shows resilience, with more mature market participants and rational trading behaviors, leading to an increase in the use of foreign exchange derivatives for hedging [1] - The scale of foreign exchange reserves remains stable, with reserves maintaining above 3.2 trillion USD in recent months [1] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while managing the exchange rate based on market supply and demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and a basket of currencies [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC aims to enhance support for the real economy through appropriate monetary policy measures [1] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of market supply and demand in determining exchange rates [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC will reference a basket of currencies for exchange rate adjustments, ensuring a managed floating exchange rate system [1] - The central bank intends to strengthen the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 3: Market Regulation - The PBOC will take measures to correct pro-cyclical market behaviors and address actions that disrupt market order [1] - There is a commitment to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain the stability of the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Macro Dynamics - The China Passenger Car Association indicates that the recent tariff increases will further accelerate the domestic production of automotive chips, with the current domestic chip localization rate at approximately 20% [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reports that the RMB exchange rate is fluctuating within a stable range, with the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate at 7.288 as of April 21, reflecting a 0.1% appreciation since the end of 2024 [3] - Shanghai's total import and export value with ASEAN reached 143.52 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [4] Financial Institutions - China Bank will adjust the purchase conditions for its accumulation gold products starting April 23, 2025, raising the minimum purchase amount from 750 yuan to 850 yuan [7] - The China Development Bank issued 369.1 billion yuan in infrastructure loans in the first quarter, with the proportion of infrastructure loans steadily increasing [8] - CITIC Bank's president appointment has been approved by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [9] - Shanghai Bank's chairman Jin Yu resigned due to age reasons, ceasing to hold any positions within the company [10] Market Data - On April 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25%, with significant trading activity in high-position stocks, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.82% [11] - As of April 21, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 916.758 billion yuan, an increase of 3.113 billion yuan from the previous trading day [12] Company Dynamics - ZTE Corporation reported a 10.5% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first quarter, with revenue of 32.968 billion yuan, a 7.82% increase [13] - Hunan Gold announced a 104.63% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first quarter, with revenue of 13.121 billion yuan, up 67.83% [16] - Huaron Holdings corrected its 2024 annual performance forecast, indicating a potential delisting risk due to expected losses [17]

在08年的金融危机发生时，因为日元的表现十分坚挺，所以一度被人们当作避险货币，但近期日元一度发生贬值，日元兑美元汇率已经直逼130，可以说是 让人大跌眼镜。如果是在以前，日元贬值还会吸引大批游客到日本旅游，但疫情的肆虐让日本的观光经济受到了一定的冲击，日本人民也对该国的经济发展 感到忧心忡忡。 美联储加息带给日元的冲击 美联储的加息做法是对日元的最大冲击，因为美元加息后会让资本闻风而动，许多资本会选择抛售日元资产，转而投入美元资产的怀抱，因此日元的汇率一 直在急转直下。日本央行在得知美国加息的做法后，没有选择追随美国，而是想要通过降息的策略来保证日本本国的利率，这也导致资本大量流入美国，日 元便迎来了近二十年的最低汇率。 日元贬值的同时疫情也没好转，这极大地影响了日本人的生活，日本的许多工厂不能开工，进口产品还要支付高昂的物流费，所以很多实体店出现了倒闭情 况。之前的日本极度依赖进口产品，但是发生日元贬值这个事后进口业务有可能锐减。 美联储加息的政策一定程度上也会影响到人民币的贬值情况，不过中国对此有自己到一套应对方法，首先是央行调低了外汇存款储备金，央行根据市场情况 适度调整外汇存款准备金工具，这能起到控制 ...

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨肖嘉 图 源丨摄图网 近期，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，全球金融市场震荡，不确定性显著增强。 2 1世纪经济报道记者注意到，在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率先是短线走低，释放贬值压力后 转而回调，目前均收复7 . 3元关口。截至记者发稿，在岸人民币对美元报7 . 2 9 2 6元，离岸人民 币对美元报7 . 2 8 1 3元。 与 此 同 时 ， 美 元 指 数 持 续 承 压 。 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 4 月 11 日 美 元 指 数 已 跌 破 1 0 0 ， 日 内 跌 幅 达 1 . 1 4％，最新报9 9 . 7 9 0 6。而此前自2 0 2 4年11月6日起，美元指数保持在1 0 5以上的高位已持 续了近半年。 | < w | 美元指数 ರ | | --- | --- | | USDX.FX | | | 99.7690 前收 | | | -1.1682 -1.16% 卖出 | 99.7690 买入 99.7690 | | 最高 今年来 | -8.03% 20 日 -3.82% | | 最低 99.0086 | 10 日 | | 时间 23:54 涨跌 | -1.05 ...

作 者丨 唐婧 编 辑丨肖嘉 4月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2 0 2 5年3月末，我国外汇储备规模为3 2 4 0 7亿美元，较2月末上升1 3 4亿美元，升幅为0 . 4 2%。这 是我国外汇储备连续1 6个月站上3 . 2万亿美元大关，也是连续3个月出现环比回升。 国家外汇局表示，2 0 2 5年3月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、财政货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体下跌。 汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，一揽子存量政策和增量政策继续发力 显效，高质量发展扎实推进，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 多名受访专家告诉2 1世纪经济报道记者，在外部环境复杂多变的情况下，外汇储备充分发挥了国家经济金融安全的"稳定器"和"压舱石"作用， 已经帮助我国成功经受住了多轮外部冲击的考验，这一次也不会例外。 例如，汇管研究院副院长、对外经贸大学金融学院兼职教授、国际金融专家赵庆明告诉记者，我国外汇储备长期以来稳定在3万亿美元之上， 是全球第一大外汇储备国，远超排在第二的国家。如此雄厚的外汇储备资产，将继续维护我国经济和金 ...

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]

作者： 陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 一方面，当前环境下人民币贬值"弊大于利"。 面对高额关税，人民币贬值对冲外贸的效果微乎其微，反而可能加剧资金外流的风险。从 近年经验来看， 7.35 （美元兑人民币）或是需要"坚守"的底线。 另一方面，人民币贬值也与我国"捍卫多边主义"的基调不符。 近年来，其他主要亚洲货币基本"锚定"人民币汇率波动。若人民币"失 守"，可能引起其他经济体的"竞争性"贬值，对稳定市场、构建反制同盟等均有不利影响。 其次，降准或快于降息，辅之于结构性货币政策利率调降。 为什么降准优先于降息？ 从 2023 年以来的历次操作来看，降准开始更多承载稳定市场的功能。尤其在 2024 年 12 月政治局会议上，首次 将"稳住楼市股市"作为经济工作的重点任务。 考虑到关税已落地、二季度政府债供给压力上行等，预计降准将先行落地以对冲市场下 跌。 如我们上篇报告《 关税风暴：政策对冲的经济账 》所述，随着关税风险的兑现， 当前市场的核心矛盾已转化为经济下行和政策对冲的角 力。 打铁还需自身硬，清明假期最后一天官媒的发声，表明决策层已经就应对冲击做好了各种预案， 我们预计 4 月底的政治局会议将给 增量的储备政策定 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, the RMB exchange rate showed resilience in a complex macro - background. The nominal effective exchange rate index of the RMB increased, and it appreciated against a basket of currencies. Although it depreciated against the US dollar, it was less than most currencies. However, due to the continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread, there was always adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate. [8][15] - In 2025, changes in domestic and foreign macro - events may intensify the volatility of the RMB exchange rate. The scale of domestic incremental counter - cyclical regulatory policies and the overseas political and economic situation, especially Trump's re - election, will have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. The differentiation of Sino - US monetary policies may also cause adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar. [9][37] - In the short term, macro - prudential tools are crucial for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, while in the long term, it depends on positive and effective macro - policies. [10][44] 3. Summary by Directory 2024 RMB Exchange Rate Review - **RMB exchange rate trend is highly consistent with China's economic fundamentals**: In 2024, China's GDP growth rate and PMI showed a pattern of "high at the beginning, low in the middle, and rising at the end". The RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies followed a similar trend. Policy introductions since late September 2024 boosted the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter and the RMB exchange rate. [8][17] - **The RMB exchange rate remained resilient against the backdrop of a strong US dollar**: In 2024, the "strong US dollar" was a key feature in the international foreign exchange market. Most developed and emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar, but Asian currencies, including the RMB, showed resilience due to strong economic performance. The RMB's relatively small depreciation against the US dollar led to its appreciation against a basket of currencies. [9][20] - **The continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread created adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate**: The difference in the 10 - year government bond yields between China and the US widened in 2024. The inflation trends in the two countries led to different trends in their 10 - year government bond yields, and the Sino - US interest rate spread and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar were strongly correlated. [29][32] 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - **Changes in domestic and foreign macro - events may intensify the volatility of the RMB exchange rate**: In 2025, the domestic expectation of more incremental counter - cyclical regulatory policies and Trump's re - election as the US president will make the global economic and trade pattern more volatile, which may magnify the exchange rate fluctuations of the RMB against the US dollar. [37][38] - **The differentiation of Sino - US monetary policies creates adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate**: China may implement more aggressive monetary easing policies, while the US will be more cautious about interest rate cuts due to inflation and tariff policies. The resulting continuous "inversion" of the Sino - US interest rate spread will be a "pressure source" for the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2025. [40][43] - **Stabilizing the RMB exchange rate depends on macro - prudential tools in the short term and positive macro - policies in the long term**: The central bank has increased its regulation of the RMB exchange rate, and short - term regulatory measures have achieved certain results. In the long run, expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and ensuring economic stability are the cornerstones for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. [44][45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline of the US dollar index and its implications for the global economy, particularly focusing on the stability of the Chinese yuan amidst these fluctuations [1][2][7]. Group 1: US Dollar Decline - The US dollar index has dropped significantly, falling over 3% since March 3, approaching the 104 mark, which is the lowest since November 2024 [2]. - Weak economic indicators in the US, including stagnation in manufacturing activity, rising inflation pressures, and a widening trade deficit, are contributing to the dollar's decline [2]. - The Atlanta Fed's model predicts a potential GDP contraction of 2.825% for the first quarter of 2025, marking the worst performance since 2019 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The decline in the dollar has led to a corresponding drop in US stock indices, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones experiencing declines of 7.5%, 4.91%, and 3.63% respectively from February 20 to March 5 [2]. - Multiple maturities of US Treasury yields have also decreased, indicating a broader market reaction to the economic outlook [3]. Group 3: "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" is a proposed economic policy framework by the Trump administration aimed at addressing the US trade deficit and the overvaluation of the dollar through currency coordination and tariff adjustments [4]. - The proposal includes converting $36 trillion of US debt into 100-year zero-coupon bonds, potentially alleviating interest payment burdens for the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - The agreement faces significant challenges, including the need for cooperation from foreign central banks and the impact of private sector holdings of US debt [5]. Group 4: Stability of the Chinese Yuan - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience, with the offshore yuan appreciating less than 1% despite the dollar's significant decline, reflecting a stable exchange rate policy by the Chinese government [1][7]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to stabilize the yuan, including issuing offshore central bank bills and adjusting macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing [7]. - Analysts suggest that the yuan's stability is part of a broader strategy to maintain a reasonable equilibrium in the currency market, as indicated by the CFETS index remaining strong [7][8].