Group 1 - The market is showing resilience against tariff uncertainties, driven by strong corporate earnings expectations and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence [1][3] - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.09%, S&P 500 up 0.27%, and Dow Jones up 0.43%, all reaching new closing highs [1] - Large tech stocks exhibited mixed performance, with Tesla rising 4.7% and Delta Airlines surging 12% due to positive demand outlook [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the sensitivity of the market to tariff news has decreased, with ongoing economic growth signs and confidence in the upcoming earnings season supporting stock market gains [3] - Copper prices have rebounded, with a 2.1% increase in New York markets, marking an over 11% rise since the announcement of tariffs [3] - Some market strategists view short-term volatility from tariffs as an investment opportunity, suggesting that risk assets will gradually rise [3] Group 3 - Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve's current interest rate policy, suggesting it is too high and causing significant refinancing costs [4] - Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Daly, have indicated a potential for interest rate cuts, with Daly suggesting that tariffs may not have a lasting impact on inflation [5] - The overall economic outlook remains positive, with expectations of two potential rate cuts this year, although uncertainties persist [5]

海外经济：降息预期升温 长端利率上行的限制性作用逐渐发酵，美国地产投资加速收缩，经济动能整体趋弱。亚特兰大联储GDPNOW 模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速回落0.5pct至2.9%，其中地产投资增速再下行1.2pct至-5.4%，建筑投资 增速再下行0.1pct至-3.5%。 尽管经济动能趋弱，但美国就业形势依然稳健。周频首次申领失业金人数回落1.0万至23.6万，符合季节性水 平。 中东局势缓和，油价见顶回落，通胀压力边际缓解。墨西哥湾/纽约港汽油价格较前期高点回落约10%，逼近 伊以冲突爆发前的水平。 财政政策保持扩张立场。《大而美法案》以51:49通过参议院程序性动议投票。周频财政盈余$737亿，符合季 节性水平，趋势上仍然强于历史同期。 货币政策边际转鸽，市场降息预期升温。以理事沃勒和副主席鲍曼为首的少数鸽派继续重申7月降息立场，以 鲍威尔主席为首的多数谨慎派表态亦有转向，如若情况合适将对提前降息持开放态度。 海外策略：风险偏好上升 上周影响海外市场走势的逻辑有两条：一是美联储降息预期升温。二是伊以停火。在此背景下，美债利率、美 元、黄金均明显回调，人民币略有升值。 美股方面，上周美股上涨2.9 ...

Economic Overview - Despite rising global trade friction costs, China's economic data in May showed strong resilience, with social retail sales increasing by 6.3% year-on-year and industrial added value growing by 5.8% year-on-year, suggesting a GDP growth rate of around 5.2% in the second quarter, making it feasible to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [1][7] - However, from January to May, industrial enterprise profits declined by 1.1% year-on-year, a drop of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating multiple challenges in the transition from economic stabilization to profit recovery [1][7] Analysis of Profit Decline - The key reason for the weakening of enterprise profits is low prices, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to May and a single-month decline of 3.3% in May, leading to a year-on-year drop in industrial profit margins by 4.24% [2][9] - On the supply side, manufacturing investment has consistently outpaced overall fixed asset investment, leading to capacity expansion primarily in high-tech sectors, making it difficult to execute capacity reduction in emerging manufacturing fields [2][12] - On the demand side, external demand is constrained by factors such as U.S. inventory replenishment, uncertainty in total demand, and increased tariff rates, while domestic consumption growth relies heavily on policies like trade-in programs and preemptive sales events [2][15] Policy Response and Market Impact - In the context of weak demand, enterprises face inventory reduction pressures, making price recovery crucial. Policies need to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments to promote price recovery and correct discrepancies in macro and micro expectations [2][19] - Before clear policy signals emerge, bonds hold investment value, while the stock market may benefit from improved liquidity and sentiment recovery, although a steady upward trend relies on continuous improvement in corporate profits [2][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market rose rapidly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.56% and a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The conflict between Iran and Israel has limited direct impact on the A-share market. Given the current credit contraction and insufficient demand, the index is unlikely to break through the central level and rise significantly. However, with the improvement in corporate earnings in H1 2025 compared to 2024 and the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not experience a sharp decline in the short term. It is expected that the index will mainly fluctuate in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, the 10-year main contract down 0.11%, the 5-year main contract down 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2092 billion yuan. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly and is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a significant upward trend, with multiple sectors rising. The conflict between Iran and Israel had limited direct impact on the A-share market. The domestic economy faces challenges such as credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings have improved, leading to an expected volatile trend for the index [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open market operations led to a slight tightening of the capital market. Given the economic resilience and the approaching half-year end, the bond market is likely to remain range-bound [1][2]. Price Changes in Futures Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 24, 2025, IH rose 1.10%, IF rose 1.45%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 2.46% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.20%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.62%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.30% [3]. Market News - An event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War will be held on September 3, including a military parade, and President Xi Jinping will deliver an important speech [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, providing a visual reference for the performance of stock index futures [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, helping to analyze the treasury bond futures market [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and other currency pairs, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, offering insights into the foreign exchange market [20][21][22].

日本央行行长植田和男：关税可能影响企业盈利、年终奖金以及工资谈判。 ...

Group 1 - Global market investors are exhibiting a cautious sentiment due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, reflected in slight declines in major U.S. stock index futures [1][5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell approximately 0.1%, S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped by 0.2%, indicating investor sensitivity to upcoming economic and policy signals [5] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows a slight easing of inflationary pressures, providing the Federal Reserve with a reason to remain inactive in the short term [5] Group 2 - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be crucial in determining whether inflation has a sustained downward momentum, which remains to be observed [5] - Uncertainty in policy direction is likely to increase short-term volatility in the dollar exchange rate, especially in an environment where interest rate expectations are not yet defined [5] - If inflation continues to decline, market expectations for an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve may rise, potentially putting pressure on the dollar and leading to a short-term rebound in non-dollar currencies [5] Group 3 - The current earnings season is nearing its end, with tech giant Adobe set to release financial data this week, which may provide new valuation direction for the market [5] - Corporate earnings trends have a direct impact on stock market valuations and investor confidence, particularly in times of macroeconomic policy ambiguity and external uncertainty [5][6] - Traders are advised to closely monitor inflation data, consumer spending changes, and employment market dynamics, as these factors will directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy path [6]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道在经历了美国所谓的"对等关税"引发的市场动荡后，如今市场的担 忧已经大幅缓解，美股再度逼近历史新高。 当地时间6月9日，标普500指数继续走高，收于6005.88点，进一步逼近历史高点，距离2月份创下的历 史最高收盘点位仅差约2%。自4月8日美股因关税担忧而触及阶段低点以来，标普500指数已反弹逾 20%。 一些华尔街机构对美股后续走势愈发乐观，摩根士丹利和高盛认为美国经济韧性将支撑股市。花旗将标 普500指数年底目标位上调至6300点。 美股为何大幅反弹？ 在美股大幅反弹背后，市场风险偏好已经较4月显著回升。 方德证券高级分析师廖偲琴对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，中美经贸谈判超预期，是本轮上涨行情的关 键驱动力。《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》公布后，中美双方大幅削减了双边关税。这被市场解读为 重大利好，迅速提振了风险偏好，推动美股主要指数重拾上涨势头。 渣打中国财富方案部首席投资策略师王昕杰对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，美股仍有望再次测试2月份 的历史高位，多重因素有望提供支撑。首先是贸易紧张局势缓和，中美的经贸谈判，以及美国暂停了对 欧洲征收关税，美国消费者信心强劲反弹。 ...

随着股市从春季低点大幅反弹，部分华尔街专业人士认为最糟糕的阶段可能已经结束，夏季交易时段或 将迎来相对平静的行情。这一切始于特朗普政府宣布所谓"解放日"对等关税政策后市场的戏剧性反转。 但更广阔的宏观背景依然乐观。摩根士丹利董事总经理兼高级投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙（Andrew Slimmon）表示，"我确实认为二季度经济将再次带来上行惊喜"。他列举了强劲的盈利预期和稳定的经 济表现，"即使市场重返历史高点，我也不会感到意外"。 不过斯利蒙警告，当前环境已不如4月初有利——当时股市刚从大幅下跌中反弹且波动性高企，即便是 轻微利好也能引发强劲的V型复苏。但在基准指数上涨20%、波动率指数趋稳后，市场对负面消息的脆 弱性可能上升。 （文章来源：金十数据） Prime Capital Financial副首席投资官威尔·麦高夫（Will McGough）同样认为市场可能在夏季保持安静。 他指出，即便是近期市场最关注的长期美国国债收益率，也基本维持在4%至5%的区间内波动，尽管华 盛顿的噪音持续不断。"我现在的建议是享受夏天"，麦高夫称，"目前没有什么因素能推动市场实质性 突破当前区间"。 当然，未来数月仍不乏可能 ...

2025.06. 05 本文字数：1742，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ： 盈利是硬道理、制止恶性价格竞争，降成本、提技术，做好内功赢得消费者，加快行业内淘汰重组、积极培 育龙头企业，这些都是亟需解决的重要课题。 作者 | 一财评论员 截至6月3日，在港交所上市的造车新势力均已发布了今年一季度财报，多家企业明确了盈利"时间 表"。 虽然蔚来汽车一季度仍然出现较大数额亏损，但董事长李斌表示，蔚来汽车经营表现会逐个季度得到 改善，企业很笃定第四季度会实现盈利；小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏预计小鹏汽车将在第四季度实现盈 利；零跑汽车副总裁李腾飞表示，零跑汽车力争在二季度实现当季度盈亏平衡；6月3日，雷军在小 米投资者大会上表示，小米汽车业务的亏损正在逐步收窄，预计将在2025年第三或第四季度实现盈 利。 企业财报和企业相关表态可以反映企业现状和发展预期。对此，有观点称，2025年，造车新势力或 将迎来"规模化盈利元年"。 全国乘联会秘书长崔东树日前表示：行业已经到了扭亏为盈的节点，以造车新势力为代表的车企近期 给出扭亏为盈"时间表"是可喜的现象；增收不增利，甚至赔本赚吆喝的情况是难以长期维持的。 虽然造车新势力表达了实现盈利 ...

盈利是硬道理、制止恶性价格竞争，降成本、提技术，做好内功赢得消费者，加快行业内淘汰重组、积 极培育龙头企业，这些都是亟需解决的重要课题。 企业财报和企业相关表态可以反映企业现状和发展预期。对此，有观点称，2025年，造车新势力或将迎 来"规模化盈利元年"。 全国乘联会秘书长崔东树日前表示：行业已经到了扭亏为盈的节点，以造车新势力为代表的车企近期给 出扭亏为盈"时间表"是可喜的现象；增收不增利，甚至赔本赚吆喝的情况是难以长期维持的。 虽然造车新势力表达了实现盈利的决心和信心，但现实情况依然不是很乐观。就行业总体来说，依然在 低利润甚至亏损中艰难跋涉。 根据国家统计局发布的数据，今年一季度，汽车产业利润率为3.9%，远低于下游工业企业5.6%的平均 水平。而以新能源、智能化为主打的新势力处境更加艰难。举例来说，虽然蔚来汽车笃定今年第四季度 会实现盈利，但一季度调整后净亏损62.79亿元，亏损同比2024年一季度还有扩大。 十年磨一剑，有两种可能，一是磨出类似干将莫邪的宝剑，二是磨出废铁。现在正处在这一关键时刻， 必须将企业盈利作为硬道理，才能促进行业的良性发展。 为实现盈利这一根本目标，首先是要建立良性的市场竞争 ...